Bangladesh on The Election Train!

SALEEM SAMAD

After 18 months, the nation will go for an election in February 2026. Since the Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus took charge of the Interim Government last August, he faced several hiccups in running the administration. One of the challenges he faced was when his government announced a road map for a free, fair, and credible election. In this election, people would be able to express their wish to elect a party that would form a legitimate political government.

The other challenge was stabilizing the situation of law and order. Most of the police forces have fled their ranks in fear of retaliation by protesters for killing thousands of students and protesters. The understaffed police forces are inadequate to restore law and order in the country.

However, law enforcement has been supplemented by the Bangladesh Army in every city and town. Initiate the trial of leaders of Awami League, including former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, for crimes against humanity for ordering to opening fire upon thousands of protesters.

During the bloody July-August anti-government street protests known as the Monsoon Revolution, Hasina was forced to quit and flee to India, where she is living in exile for the second time in her political career. Meanwhile, in a typical political development, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP’s) supremo Tarique Rahman, acting Chairman, held a parley with visiting Prof Yunus in London, where he was living in exile.

The hour-long parley thawed a couple of crucial political discontentment with the new government. Yunus repeatedly said the election should be held before June next year. But BNP, a rightist democratic party, demanded that the election be held at the end of December. Or else there will political and economic crisis, which may cause a law and order situation.

Yunus is determined that the election should be held after the crucial reforms are agreed upon with the political parties. However, BNP and its like-minded fringe politics did not give any specific reason for demanding the election to be held at the end of this year. Political circles said that the high school final exam, the month of fasting in Ramadan from mid-February, Eid ul Fitr in mid-March 2026, the advent of monsoon, etc., were not favorable for a general election.

Earlier on the eve of Eid ul-Adha, Yunus announced that the election would be held in April 2026. Well, the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami’s chief, Dr. Shafiqur Rahman, has said the chief advisor’s announcement has reassured the nation of the transition to democracy. The National Citizens’ Party (NCP) stated that steps should be taken to implement the July Charter (Monsoon Revolution), and the proposed reforms; they have no objection to elections being held within the announced timeframe.

BNP rejected the election announcement and declared street protests against the government to hold polls by the end of December. BNP supremo Rahman, after the parley in London, agreed that the deadline for the political parties to commit to the reforms in the judiciary, the election commission, the bureaucracy, police administration, the anti-corruption commission, and others.

Yunus wants the political parties to agree to the reform proposals to ensure transparency, accountability, and public social responsibility of elected leaders. The politicians to keep their party supporters loyal to them, and ensure that the henchmen enjoy impunity for the crimes, they need to influence the police, judiciary, and civil administration.

Therefore, it is understood that the politicians oppose reforms. They have been arguing that the Interim Government does not have the jurisdiction to conduct any reforms. Like the howls of jackals, the parties want the elected parliament should endorse the reforms and make them public laws for the benefit of the people.

Meanwhile, BNP’s high command has refused to ally with Jamaat-e-Islami or any Islamist party. BNP is confident that it will win the majority to form a government. BNP also has also problem with the newly formed King’s party – the National Citizens Party (NCP) by the student leaders who have spearheaded the Monsoon Revolution, which toppled the iron lady Hasina last August.

The NCP blames BNP’s inherent weakness for failing to topple the autocratic regime, which ruled Bangladesh for more than 15 years. Hasina intermittently hunted and haunted the opposition. Her government arrested tens of thousands of BNP leaders, activists and supporters and threw them in prisons on terrorism charges, damaging government properties, and attacking police.

BNP and other opposition leaders were immobilized. The opposition was neutralized after several brutal crackdowns by the law enforcement agencies and henchmen of the ruling Awami League. The opposition was unable to organize effective anti-government street protests to block the elections, which were boycotted.

The elections of 2014, 2018, and 2024 were held sans the opposition and the poll results were doctored, according to national and international election observers, which echoed the media coverage of the election ballot box stuffing, henchmen taking possession of polling stations, and widespread vote buying.

Hasina never bothered to hold free, fair, and inclusive elections. She deliberately ignored the media feedback, human rights organizations’ statements, and the poll observers’ report. She took the senior journalists into her confidence with lucrative benefits. She split the journalists’ union among pro-government loyalists and pushed others to join the opposition union.

Hundreds of journalists faced legal harassment, intimidation and were jailed under repressive cybercrime laws. The draconian cyber laws targeted opposition, critics, dissidents and especially the “delinquent” journalists who refused to be loyal to Hasina.

The media landscape has changed. Most media cannot publish/broadcast news, which hurts the feelings of the student leaders of NCP. Often, they barge into the newsroom when they are dissatisfied with certain news outlets critiquing their source of funding for holding massive rallies and a lavish lifestyle.

In most cases, they intimidate news organizations to delete the story or headlines that are deemed inappropriate and tarnish their image as revolutionaries. Scores of journalists were terminated or asked to resign in the face of the NCP’s threats. They forced the National Press Club in Dhaka to cancel more than a hundred veteran journalists and senior members of the club.

Dr Rakib Al Hasan, Executive Director of the Center for Partnership Initiative, a research office, said NCP failed to gather moss from rolling stones. The new party does not believe in pluralism and secularism. They have been engaged in witch-hunting against professionals, and bureaucrats, including journalists, professors of state universities, and teachers of several educational institutions.

The television and stage actors were banned from shows. Several of the plays were postponed until the drama producers got rid of the actors. The student leaders have lost credibility among the mainstream journalists, intellectuals, and the military hierarchy, which still remains steadfast behind Prof Yunus, remarked Hasan.

What is disliked by the sympathizers of student leaders for appeasing Jamaat-e-Islami and other radicalized Islamic groups, who are cut off from the masses, said the young researcher.

It will be difficult for NCP to muster the support of the millions who also joined the Monsoon Revolution to vote for them in the upcoming election, which is now scheduled to be held eight months from now, predicts the private research organization.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, on 14 June 2025 

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Bangladesh goes to polls amid ailing democracy

SALEEM SAMAD

After much international media hype on the Bangladesh election, the day dawned on 7 January.

On the eve of the tense election battle of the ballots, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Rights to Freedom of Peaceful Assembly and of Association, Clément Nyaletsossi Voule, called the election environment in Bangladesh “repressive” and said that he is “deeply disturbed”.

The Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) has expressed profound concern over the 12th Parliamentary Elections to ensure free and fair elections in Asia voiced its concern.

ANFREL said they strongly believed that this election is at risk of lacking genuineness and electoral competitiveness, raising serious questions about its adherence to democratic principles and international election standards that assess the legitimacy of the electoral process.

The statement also said ANFREL believes that the risk of lacking genuineness and electoral competitiveness emanates from the observed absence of accountability, fairness, and inclusivity in the electoral processes.

Amnesty issued a 10-point human rights charter and urged all contesting political parties to ensure that the protection and promotion of human rights is a core part of their plans for the country.

The 10 points: Respect and protect freedom of expression and media freedom; Protect the protest; Sustainable solutions to the Rohingya crisis; End impunity for enforced disappearances and extrajudicial executions; Protect women’s rights; Protect the rights of religious minorities and indigenous peoples; Abolish the death penalty; Inclusive, sustainable responses to the climate crisis; End impunity for custodial deaths and torture; and Uphold corporate accountability and labour rights.

The question they are addressing to the wrong group of politicians, and political parties including the governing Awami League. None of them has the mood to listen to the civil society and often blames them for working for the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami.

On the other hand, a senior Indian journalist Bharat Bhusan writes that the staged election could result in political instability in the country. He believes that the national election on January 7 is widely expected to be neither inclusive nor competitive.

Instability, because Bangladesh has fallen into geo-political fault. China, Russia and India want Sheikh Hasina, the president of the Awami League should return to power with an overwhelming majority.

India’s conspicuous silence over the one-sided election has encouraged China and Russia to adopt a similar policy to keep Hasina in power for another term.

China and Russia are singing the same tune, which could be understood to counter the United States, European Union and other West putting pressure on Bangladesh to hold a free, fair and inclusive election.

The election needs no prediction as BBC News dubbed the polls as a ‘one-woman’ election, while the result already looks inevitable, writes Anbarasan Ethirajan.

The predicted win of stage-managed win in the election would be a win for India, Russia and China.

It’s an election of Awami League versus Dummy League. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has advised his political hierarchy to nominate ‘dummy’ candidates to ensure that if the contestant application is rejected by a higher court or the election commission, at least there is one standby candidate to fight the ballot.

As the dummy candidates have no political credibility and accountability in their constituency they are known to be troublemakers for the rebel candidates who failed to get nomination from governing Awami League.

The dummy candidates are also a political nuisance in the area for obstructing independent candidates, also creating rowdyism for other party candidates.

There are reports of clashes and attacks on rival candidates in scores of district towns. News of vandalism of polling centres is also pouring. Such incidents give a chilling message of violence during voting. The fear is likely to hinder voters from going to the polling station.

Such fear means the election is not free. The voters will go to the polling station with fear and impending violence among supporters and henchmen of rival candidates.

It is expected that violence would be lowest, as the Awami League has no opposition in the real sense. The independent and rebel candidates are unlikely to pose any threats.

In several seats, the rebel candidates are very influential and have a strong support base in the certain constituency. Most rebel candidates have strong people-to-people contacts.

The parliamentary election as Western and Indian media are agog with stories that the election is one-sided and Sheikh Hasina, the Mother-of-Humanity will be elected for the fifth tenure.

She will surely be included in the Guinness World Records, as the longest-serving woman prime minister in the world.

Well, the call for agitation by the BNP and its allies has fallen flat. As the BNP failed to garner the support of the people to protest the one-sided election.

Agitation in the form of a general strike (hartal) and lockdown to disconnect from the rest of the country could not woo the people to support the anti-government movement.

What did not surprise the political observers was that a significant number of candidates from the ‘loyal opposition’ Jatiya Party, Trinamool BNP and other King’s parties have stepped out of the election race.

More than 225 of the 265 Jatiya Party candidates have pulled out of the race, terming the election “one-sided and staged” and others blamed the non-cooperation of the ruling Awami League.

However, only the contestants who were blessed with a quota of 26 have not pulled out.

It’s too late for the candidates to drop out from the race as the last date for withdrawal has long gone.

The Bangladesh Election Commission has also reiterated that they also envisage holding a free and fair election, but could not assure that the election would be free of violence.

Despite repeated promises by the government and the election commission, it seems neither the West nor the international media are convinced that the election would be free, fair, credible and inclusive.

Meanwhile, foreign election observers will be only allowed to visit polling centres within a range oftwo-hour road drive. The observers can travel to cities and towns where domestic airlines fly.

The election commission has given election observer accreditation cards to 127 foreign observers.

On the other hand, the Ministry of Foreign Ministry, Information and Broadcasting, and Home Affairs have imposed conditions on foreign journalists to issue visas to cover the election. Only 73 journalists were accredited to cover the election and visit polling centres.

The award-winning journalist Nazmul Ahasan in a Twitter (X) posted that foreign journalists granted visas are mostly those based in the India bureau. Some are required to sign agreements mandating that their footage receives official approval before publication and that they will not harm the “national image” or “sentiment.”

Indirectly, the Bangladesh authorities have imposed censorship and restrictions on foreign journalists who are not free to report independently.

Bangladesh, the nation tests an ailing democracy on the ballot.

First published in the North East News, Guwahati, Assam, India, 6 January 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter: @saleemsamad

In search of an Opposition in Bangladesh election

 

SALEEM SAMAD

Nosy political scientist, political analyst and political observers have been scratching their heads to understand, where is the opposition in the upcoming national election scheduled to be held on January 7, 2024.

Which party will sit on the opposition bench in the magnificent iconic Jatiya Sangsad (parliament) building?

It should not sound strange that in an election, a party that gets a majority in an election forms a government, while the runners-up (second majority) takes a seat on the opposition bench in the parliament. That’s a norm in political science.

A day before, the European Union (EU) was equally curious to know where the opposition is.

The EU asked the governing Awami League general secretary, Obaidul Quader, to know who would be the opposition party in the 12th national parliament.

Quader, also Road Transport and Bridges Minister said ‘The results of the polls will tell who will be the opposition.’ Indeed, a simple answer to a complex question.

In Bangladesh, the governing party Awami League has ensured that the principal opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is eliminated and thousands of the key leaders, members and supporters are behind bars.

The trumped-up cases are mostly terrorism, vandalism and destruction of government properties.

The Awami League has sacrificed six constituencies for its alliance partners and 26 for the Jatiya Party in the national election, said the ruling party’s Office Secretary Biplob Barua that their party leaders have withdrawn their candidacies from these 32 seats. Thus the party will contest for 263 constituencies.

On the other hand, the Jatiya Party Secretary General Mujibul Haque Chunnu announced that the party will contest for 287 constituencies, out of 300.

With the Jatiya Party joining, the pre-election camp gets bigger, writes Jahidul Islam in the Business Standard.

If the Awami League shares seats with the Jatiya Party the latter will become a “loyal opposition” that will be subservient to the governing party and would hardly oppose not debate any bill that goes against the freedom and rights of the people.

The ‘loyal opposition’ will need not walk out from the session nor debate in the parliament, other than asking for political favour for the party and their members only.

Meanwhile, upbeat Awami League lawmaker Prof Mohammad A. Arafat and Chairman of Suchinta Foundation who is active on Twitter (X) writes: 30 former parliamentarians, including five advisors to the (opposition) BNP Chairperson and 15 members of the BNP Central Committee, are participating in the election. Apart from the central leaders, 87 leaders of the BNP, including the president, vice president, general secretary of the district, and upazila (sub-district) level, are contesting the election.

Arafat, who is an active cyber warrior against the opposition (BNP) and critic of the Awami League regime troll army, seems to justify the absence of BNP and others in the poll and remarked that “They look set to mount a tough challenge in many seats. In addition, the Jatiya Party and its 14-party partners will also face stiff competition in many seats. Trinamool BNP and BNM (Bangladesh Nationalist Movement) have also fielded strong candidates in many seats.

First published in the Northeast News, Guwahati, India, 27 December 2023

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter: @saleemsamad

Bangladesh election not likely in early January

SALEEM SAMAD

The much-awaited national election to the 12th Parliament of Bangladesh is likely to be rescheduled, and not postponed.

The governing party Awami League’s top leader Obaidul Quader and Minister for Roads and Bridges said on Wednesday that if the election date is rescheduled, his party does not have any objection. But, said subject to holding the election within the timeframe stipulated in the constitution.

However, Quader, General Secretary of Awami League added that the Election Commission has the authority to reschedule the election date and other dates.

There is enough room for an additional two weeks to hold the election.

An Election Commissioner earlier said the national election must be held by 29 January, under the constitution, to avert a potential political volatility akin to anarchy in the country.

Election Commissioner Mohammad Alamgir recently said, “Failure to do so would create a constitutional gap leading to a state of anarchy, which the Election Commission cannot allow.”

The election circus has already begun and the media is abuzz with news and speculative stories of cross-current and undercurrent of negotiating with the principal opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) to set aside their ego and participate in the election.

The political reporters cannot fathom the political development behind the curtain.

Hundreds of former bureaucrats, senior police officers, journalists, cricketers, entertainment industry artists, doctors, engineers, educationists, and lawyers have bought nominations for the Awami League.

The Election Commission is willing to reschedule the 12th parliamentary election if the BNP and other parties boycotting the polls officially change their mind and decide to participate in the election, Election Commissioner Rashida Sultana says.

Well, BNP has not responded to rescheduling the election date.

Last week, the BNP announced to boycott of the elections to the 12th parliament arguing that the election would not be free, fair and credible unless Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina stepped aside and an interim government to hold the election.

Hasina and her party are in power for the fourth consecutive tenure, thus becoming the longest-serving woman prime minister in the world, which is expected to enter into the Guinness Book of World Records.

However, if the opposition and others join, of course would be described as an inclusive election. The Election Commission would welcome their [opposition] participation, said another Election Commissioner Rashida Sultana.

The government has cracked down on opposition since BNP held a rally on 28 October to showcase strength in the capital Dhaka. The rally abruptly ended after police and ‘golden boys’ attacked the crowd.

Thousands of opposition members and more than a hundred key leaders are languishing in prisons on trumped-up charges for arson, vandalism of public properties, etcetera.

Hasina remarked “BNP is a party of terrorists” for their violent anti-government campaign and said there would be political dialogue with “terrorists”.

BNP has launched countrywide anti-government protests, which have been marked with violence, arson and vandalism.

The protest has led to further arrests of the leaders, party members and sympathisers from all over the country.

On the other hand, Hasina and her party stalwarts hectic negotiations with dissident leaders from BNP and the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) to join newly opened shops.

The Trinomul BNP and Amar Bangladesh (AB) Party formed with dissident leaders who had quit or were kicked out from the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami parties.

The higher court has banned JeI from contesting the election under the party name and election symbol.

A senior journalist Salauddin Babar of pro-JeI newspaper Naya Diganta, who is familiar with JeI’s policy said, the party has not been banned and therefore can continue in politics, except that the party cannot participate in any elections.

He, quickly added that JeI members, if the election is conducive for the party can contest as an independent candidate and also can join a like-minded political coalition and seek nomination from the alliance. There is no bar in doing that, Babar said.

Political historian Mohiuddin Ahmad says the windows have been opened to showcase the Bangladesh election as inclusive, but there is no guarantee that the election will be free, fair and violence-free.

Bangladesh election is riddled with a history of violence and violation since 1973, the first election, two years after the independence of the country, remarked Ahmad.

To assess the ground situation a pre-election Commonwealth mission is presently in Bangladesh.

The US-based International Republican Institute (IRI) and National Democratic Institute (NDI) have applied with the Election Commission for election international election observer credentials.

IRI and NDI will send five technical experts to assess the electoral violence conditions before, during and after the election day. The team is expected to be in Bangladesh for six to eight weeks.

The technical team will assess different types of election violence that occur in Bangladesh, including inter and intra-party violence, violence targeting women and other marginalised groups and communities, online harassment and threats, as well the role of state institutions in addressing these types of violence.

The European Union plans to send election observers for limited assessment before and after the election.

The question is abuzz who will bell the cat? The political observers means, who will convince the BNP to participate in the election.

If BNP joins, the government will have to bend to agree to a long list of pre-conditions, including unconditional release of their leaders and those arrested after police crackdown on 28th October. Drop all charges against opposition members.

The crucial issue is, whether the self-styled supremo Tarique Rahman, living in exile in London for two decades has no understanding of the ground reality, will allow his Dhaka-based acolytes to bargain with the government, when he is adamant not to hold dialogue with the state.

The nation has to wait and see the next round of political development likely to unfold in days to come.

First published in the Northeast News, Guwahati, India, 22 November 2023

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter: @saleemsamad

Opposition in Bangladesh failing to unseat Sheikh Hasina

SALEEM SAMAD

Many keen political observers believe that the principal opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has come to a dead end on the road. Their strategy has been violent to demand that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina should step down and an interim government to hold a free, fair and inclusive national election.

BNP has announced to boycott the upcoming national election in January 2024. The party and its alliance have called for a countrywide general strike (hartal) and blockade (oborod).

The blockade was announced in protest of breaking up the BNP’s 28 October rally allegedly by police in conjunction with the ‘golden boys’ of the governing Awami League.

Political historian Mohiuddin Ahmad said the opposition always envisages winning the election. If they access that they will not win, or even win a reasonable number of seats in the parliament, then they threaten to boycott the elections.

Demanding Hasina to quit power and form an interim government to oversee the elections is not happening. The rewritten constitutional provisions have deleted the sections for holding elections under a caretaker government, said Ahmad.

Winter in Bangladesh comes as a blessing when flowers bloom across the gardens and parks in the country. The village women prepare traditional pita (traditional cake made from fresh rice harvest). Some schools are done with their final exam. While others plan vacations during the winter.

The vibrant tourist industry is now challenged with negative business. This awkward situation has been caused by opposition actions and the governing party along with its alliance joining the election fest. In fear of political actions, the customers cancelled their vacation plans.

Ahmad said it is understood what the BNP wants. But the party leaders before they were arrested and sent to prison had not spelled out what they wanted to do after they won the election.

They have not promised that they will abrogate all draconian laws which hinder democracy. They did not say they would ensure accountability and transparency and zero-tolerance for corruption and human rights abuse of law enforcement agencies. They did not say that the judiciary would become independent with no political influence and not harass and intimidate opposition, critics, and dissidents.

The opposition party has not spoken a word about freedom of expression, freedom of speech, freedom of assembly and freedom of the press.

Arson, agitation and protest rallies will not change the policy of the government. After boycotting the election they have nowhere to go but sink in a black hole.

There are reasons BNP is aggressive, arrogant and refuses to dialogue with the government parties. Thus arrogance of the BNP has led the party to the end of the road.

Nonetheless, BNP for long is leaderless or rudderless and floating without any compass. The present party leaders are powerless and do not have the guts to manage the party autonomously. It’s no longer news that BNP is managed by a remote controller – sitting in London by a self-exiled leader.

The party chairperson Khaleda Zia is serving jail terms and is restricted in her house. She is barred from politics and unable to contest any elections. The ailing leader with medical complications often shuttles between her home and the hospital.

The party’s de facto leader Tarique Rahman (56), is Senior Vice-Chairman of BNP. A spoiled brat of the military dictator General Ziaur Rahman (1977-1981) and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia.

The 93-year-old former President Prof Badruddoza Chowdhury once blamed Tarique arbitrarily established a political “powerhouse outside the Prime Minister’s Office” when her mother Khaleda was the Prime Minister (2001-2006).

Tarique never attended any BNP’s central committee or high command’s meetings, but he dictated his decisions. Several ministers and secretaries of various ministries sought his decision and approval of government projects from the popularly known place in upscale Banani, the ‘Hawa Bhaban’, the office of the delinquent.

His schoolmates said he was a flop in the class exam. A below-average student in BAF Shaheen School and College in Dhaka was a timid person and not vocal. He was kicked out of the school for failing an annual exam. Later he was a dropout from studies. The high school certificate and college degree were obtained fraudulently.

Khaleda Zia never expressed embarrassment that her son established a parallel government. She never stopped him from messing with government administration.

Instead, she indulged his son to run an unauthorised powerhouse and also rein the party. Corruption during Khaleda Zia’s regime was not spatial but horizontal – the ‘prince’ did it all.

Discontentment among the senior party leaders and ministers began to surface, which the Prime Minister tried to pacify.

He hated the senior BNP leaders including those Ministers who were inducted into the newly born party by his assassinated father Ziaur Rahman.

He advocates that the country should be governed by new generation (XGen) politicians and not left with the ‘old haggards’.

In the October 2001 election, understanding that the BNP may not be elected to power, he cleverly forged an alliance with the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami, which surprised many BNP leaders.

In fact, several senior BNP leaders and ministers were 1971 liberation war veterans and also those from the leftists and communists who joined the nationalist party during the tenure of Zia were uncomfortable with the presence of JeI.

The Islamist party opposed the independence of Bangladesh and collaborated with marauding Pakistan troops. The youths of JeI were recruited to form the death squad, Al Badr.

The death squad, a secret outfit abducted hundreds of intellectuals, tortured them in secret locations and later killed them, which was the saddest episode of the liberation war history.

The Pakistan military committed genocide of 3 million, targeting the Hindus, but Muslims who belonged to the Awami League and people sympathetic to independent Bangladesh were also slaughtered and buried in hundreds of mass graves all over the country.

The occupation forces deliberately used rape as a weapon of war to create a new generation of “saccha (genuine) Pakistanis”.

The crackdown created 10 million war refugees of Hindus and Muslims alike. The war refugees were forced to take shelter in neighbouring states of India. The war has also caused internal displacement of 25 million in search of safe refuge.

The refugees were sheltered in India until Bangladesh was liberated in December 1971. Millions of refugees trekked home to their homesteads only to find their villages were parched, houses looted and torched by local militia.

The JeI leader of the eastern province of Pakistan, Ghulam Azam, fled to Pakistan in 1971 living behind his compatriots and Islamic militia to fight alongside the Islamic army.

Later JeI party was banned. Imbued in the 1974 constitution and declared that any party with a religious objective will not be registered as a political party.

Civil society challenged the self-styled professor Ghulam Azam as the Ameer of Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh in 1991, arguing that he was a citizen of Pakistan and should be deported. He, however, held the position until 2000.

Azam hated the independence of Bangladesh and believed the territory (Bangladesh) would be under the hegemony of India. Azam was convicted of crimes against humanity in July 2013.

In a development on November 19, the apex court upheld the scrapping of Jamaat-e-Islami’s registration as a political party, barring the party from contesting any polls. The Appellate Division of Supreme Court upholds a verdict from the High Court that prevents the party from running for elected office, writes the private news portal bdnews24.com.

This means that JeI is left with no scope to contest the upcoming elections scheduled in early January.

It could not be ascertained whether JeI has any alternative plan to participate in the national election.

A senior journalist who is familiar with the JeI policy said that the party leaders of Majlis-e-Shura, the highest policy-making body of the JeI will meet soon, to discuss the future of the party and relay the decision to the members.

With Jei put out of circulation, the wings of the BNP have been clipped from forming an electoral alliance or having a strong ally in the anti-government movement.

First published in the Northeast News, 19 November 2023

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter: @saleemsamad

Will the Islamists pose a challenge to the Awami League in Bangladesh?

SALEEM SAMAD

The wind of election fever is sweeping Bangladesh as the national election is coming closer. The Islamist parties, including the lesser-known Islamists are gearing up for the elections expected in early January 2024.

The Islamist parties are formally and informally holding parleys to form an electorate alliance. The question arises, whether the alliance will be a challenge for the incumbent Awami League or the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

After a long time, Bangladesh’s capital Dhaka witnessed a largely attended crowd at a rally organised by Islami Andolon (Movement) Bangladesh on Friday (November 3), a weekly holiday for the noon Jumma prayer.

The rally was held at Shurwardy Uddyan, where 96,000 Pakistan military signed a historic surrender and a surrender ceremony was held on December 16, 1971.

It is the same placed where Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman made a historic speech on March 7, 1971, which inspired the people to rise against the Pakistan military junta, leading to an independent Bangladesh.

The vast green expanse was the country’s only race course, a legacy of the British Raj, is presently a site in remembrance of the liberation war, and the sacrifices of the martyrs.

The Islami Andolon has asked the governing Awami League to relinquish power within seven days.

What has amazed many political observers is that the Islamist party has expressed solidarity with the ongoing BNP anti-government movement for a caretaker government and asked Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to step down.

The founder of Islami Andolon, Syed Mohammad Rezaul Karim said if the government fails to comply with the demands to quit by November 10, they will discuss with members of the opposition alliance and announce the next course of the movement.

The demands include a national government with members from the parties in the anti-government campaign and urged the President of the country to take measures to avoid further escalation of the violence unleashed during the series of countrywide shutdowns and blockades of road, train and river communication.

They also asked to release all BNP leaders arrested during the wake of the movement in a week.

The Islamist leader Karim warned that the people will not accept sham elections held in 2014 and 2018.

The Islamic preacher spelt out an ultimatum and threatened to launch a tougher movement with all the political parties to hold an election under a national government if their demand is not met by the date.

He warned that they will not be allowed to hold sham elections held in 2014 and 2018 polls. “The government is referring to the constitution saying that it is not possible to go beyond it. Who made the constitution? Awami League? This constitution is also illegal like the Awami League–led government,” he remarked.

He told a cheering crowd of tens of thousands that they would fight in collaboration with all political groups and get Sheikh Hasina off the throne.

On the other hand, the governing Awami League and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) are vigorously working backstage to get Islami Andolon as an electoral ally. Obviously, it will energise the enthusiasm of the impressive vote bank ahead of the upcoming general elections in early January 2024.

Surely, Karim, popularly known as “Charmonair Pir” has become a factor in politics. And it led the two major parties to make one request to Islami Andolon to join their electoral coalition, instead of going alone.

Notwithstanding, starting their political career from Barishal in March 1987, the party emerged as the fourth most popular political party in the last general election, writes The Daily Star.

The Islamist party categorically told the BNP delegation last February that they have strong reservations about the caretaker system as has been marked by bitter experience which ushered in the infamous 1/11 military-backed caretaker government.

Instead, they proposed a national government comprising members from major political parties to hold the national elections, which did not catch the winds from BNP leadership visiting Islami Andolon headquarters in Barishal.

The governing party is actively engaged in expanding the political base of an electoral alliance with leftist and Islamist parties too.

A government party delegation held parleys with Islami Andolon and proposed to its fold to defeat the opposition BNP.

The ruling party explained to Islamist leaders that joining the alliance would broaden their hope of winning in several constituencies with a vote bank of like-minded parties in the pro-government alliance if BNP decides to participate in the election.

Several Awami League leaders, however, denied holding dialogue or have proposed the Islamist party to join the broad electoral alliance.

The Islamic Andolon contested 299 seats out of 300 constituencies in the national polls held in 2018. Well, the highest by a single party, whereas the Awami League contested in 262 seats, the BNP in 258 and the Jatiya Party in 45 seats.

The Islamic Andolon individually participated in national elections for the first time in 2008. In the last 2018 election, the Islamist party contested 299 seats and got 12.55 lakh votes, which was 1.52 per cent of the vote, according to The Daily Star.

Bangladesh Election Commission has delisted the registration of the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and has no locus standi in the electioneering. However, 22 candidates of JeI have contested the 2018 election with the BNP election symbol ‘sheaf of paddy’. All the JeI candidates lost the election.

Since the BNP announced agitations on 28 October, the JeI has also announced a similar agitation programme.

The Qawmi Madrasa–based non-political Islamist organisation, Hefajat-e-Islam are in catch-22 whether to support the government party and release central leaders languishing in prison or challenge Awami League in the upcoming elections.

Several central leaders of Hefajat-e-Islam, are also leaders of smaller Islamist parties and will certainly surface during the electioneering.

On the sideline, lesser-known Islamist parties are gearing up to participate in the elections and plan to merge as a “third force”.

An alliance of Islamist parties has launched the Liberal Islamic Alliance comprising six Islamic and like-minded political parties formed on  1 September.

The six Islamic parties, newly registered with the Election Commission, are Bangladesh Supreme Party led by Syed Saifuddin Ahmed Maizbhandari, Bangladesh Islami Oikya Jote led by Misbahur Rahman Chowdhury, Krishak Sramik Party led by Farhanaz Haque, Aashiqeen-e-Awlia Oikya Parishad led by Alam Noori Sureshwari, Bangladesh Janodal and National Awami Party (NAP Bhashani).

The Supreme Party Chairman Syed Saifuddin Ahmed Maizbhandari said that preparations are afoot to contest in all 300 constituencies, indeed a challenge to other Islamist parties and alliances.

Some of the Islamist parties have reportedly said, that they will decide to participate or boycott after the election date is formally announced by the election commission.

Presently, 44 political parties, including 14 Islamist parties, are registered with the Election Commission, which is obligatory for participation in national and local government elections.

What will happen, if BNP suddenly decides to join the election at the eleventh hour? The Islamist parties will surely join the grand alliance of the government with an impressive vote bank, concludes Partha Pratim Bhattacharjee, political reporter with The Daily Star.

First published in the Northeast News, 4 November 2023

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter: @saleemsamad

Bangladesh likely to plunge into political violence

SALEEM SAMAD

The two rival political parties, the governing Awami League and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) are on a head-on collision course on 28 October.

In a major showdown of the BNP in mobilisation of supporters, members and sympathisers, the Awami League leaders and senior ministers are threatening that they will block roads and intersections in the capital Dhaka on 28 October and mobilise thousands of supporters.

Party general secretary Obaidul Quader and Minister for Roads and Highways warned the BNP that they would face a similar outcome in 10 December, last year.

After protracted negotiations, the BNP got permission for its last year’s December 10 rally at the fringe of the capital – a ground which was not its first choice of BNP.

The permission came at the cost of a life, injuries to around 100 people, and the arrest of dozens of party stalwarts.

Meanwhile, the Dhaka Metropolitan Police’s commissioner, Habibur Rahman warned of tough actions if the BNP caused harm to the lives and properties of 2.24 crore (nearly 22 million) residents of the metropolitan city while holding the political programme.

However, BNP’s general secretary Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir explained that their “loyalists won’t ‘occupy streets’ during the Dhaka rally” and has no plans to stage any sit-in protests during the party’s ‘mass rally’ in Dhaka. The party has taken adequate steps to ensure that the gathering ends peacefully, he added.

The threats against BNP were also made by Information and Broadcasting Minister Dr Hasan Mahmud, a family member of the Sunni cleric Shah Ahmed Shafi founder of the Islamist organisation Hefazat-e-Islam (Protector of Islam) that the governing Awami League members, supporters and henchmen will dominate the streets of Dhaka.

Literally, Dhaka will come to a standstill by warring parties, marching in the streets with bamboo sticks and batons to confront, one to obstruct holding the rally and another push through the Awami League and ‘golden boys’ barricades at all major intersections.

The ruling party would supplement the thousands of riot police and elite anti-crime police RAB, police detectives and security agencies mobilised to enforce the “law and order” situation.

Fearing police and ‘golden boys’ harassment, BNP leadership has called on their members and disciples to reach Dhaka two days early.

The government in the past on several occasions during BNP’s rallies blocked public transport, like buses, trains and ferryboats (launch) services. Several hotels and informal accommodations were raided and hundreds were arrested accused of sabotage and conspiring against the government. In most cases, the hotel owners are asked to vacate the rooms of their customers and close for 24 to 48 hours in the name of security issues posed by the opposition’s gathering.

BNP, the country’s largest opposition group demands that the next parliamentary polls, expected in early January, be overseen by a caretaker government to ensure a free and fair election, writes the Daily Star.

The party boycotted the election in 2014 and alleged vote rigging and intimidation during the 2018 polls, which were held under an Awami League government.

Of course, Awami League repeated its refusal to step down before the election, arguing that such an ‘unelected [caretaker] government’ would be unconstitutional, and would create a crisis from a political vacuum which would hinder the country’s politics and development.

Awami League launched a violent anti-government street protest demanding a caretaker government, which led to elections under a neutral government in 1996.

Sheikh Hasina, the current leader of the Awami League founded by her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, an independence hero scraped the elections under a caretaker government when she swung to power in 2009 after the system was challenged in the higher court and declared unconstitutional.

Meanwhile, the Brussels-based International Crisis Group fears countrywide violence and conflicts in Bangladesh from October 2023 to March 2024. The assessment was recently published in the global conflict tracker, CrisisWatch, and qualitative assessments provided by Crisis Group’s analysts based in conflict areas.

The assessment identified several parameters of conflicts during the six months and said a potentially high-stakes violent election in January 2024 is a prime reason for hostilities. Violence could surge in the lead-up to or after voting in January, as envisaged by the European think tank.

The ruling Awami League is expected to ignore calls for it to step down and hand power to a neutral regime that would ensure holding a free, fair, inclusive and credible election, and instead continue crackdown on opposition BNP members, says the report.

Not very unfamiliar with political protests in the country, the rival supporters could clash in street battles or attack party offices or candidates, especially rebel candidates.

Amid the political tensions, the Islamist groups will also bake extra bread when the oven is still warm. The Islamists become more active in opposing the government, the report said.

The potential consequences would be a rigged or disputed election could trigger fierce anti-government protests. Facing the prospect of a rigged poll, the opposition will probably boycott the election and could become radicalised, adopting more violent tactics.

In the worst-case scenario, the military might intervene should the election’s aftermath become chaotic, says the Crisis Group report.

The International Crisis Group understands that conflicts, violence and political reprisals could also cause the government to increase its dependence on India and China, as the United States and its potential Western countries would probably respond with sanctions, such as collective visa bans on top officials by the West, especially the United States.

First published in the Northeast News, 23 October 2023

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter: @saleemsamad

A prisoner’s tale

SALEEM SAMAD

Of fictitious cases, police brutality, and state-sanctioned intimidation

“Saleem Samad, a freelance reporter and local correspondent for the international press watchdog Reporters Sans Frontiers, was arrested earlier today (November 29, 2002) in connection with Channel 4,” writes The Guardian newspaper.

My arrest was made three days after British journalist Zaiba Malik and Italian cameraman Bruno Sorrentino who were commissioned by Channel 4 TV to produce a documentary on terrorism for its Unreported World, were also arrested along with their interpreter Priscilla Raj.

Journalist/film-maker Shahriar Kabir was also arrested under the sedition case. The rightist regime was enraged by his campaign for the trial of the war criminals of 1971.

The regime to harass critics also accused Advocate Rana Das Gupta (presently prosecutor of the International Crimes Tribunal) and former Dainik Janakantha’s Cox’s Bazar correspondent Tofael Ahmed.

During the repressive regime during 2002-2006 of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) coalition with Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami, at least 80 journalists were arrested and tortured -- another 200 journalists were slapped with trumped-up charges.

Scores of journalists were brutally attacked and were hospitalized, mostly in the southern districts -- from Satkhira to Bhola. Many fled their district for their safety, either after being physically attacked or receiving death threats.

The infamous Hawa Bhaban was the mastermind of harassment and intimidation -- which led to numerous arrests, including war crimes historian Prof Muntassir Mamun, Enamul Hoque Chowdhury (present editor of the Daily Sun), and journalist Barun Bhaumik Nayan, among many others. Both the journalists were brutalized during interrogation to sign fictitious confessional statements.

In a shameful move, the pro-government journalist leaders of Bangladesh Federal Union of Journalists (BFUJ), Dhaka Union of Journalists (DUJ), and National Press Club refrained from protesting the arrests, torture, and intimidations of hundreds of journalists. Instead, the journalist leaders, spearheaded by Shaukat Mahmood, a journalist turned politician desired to “teach the journalists a lesson” with the blessing of Hawa Bhaban, the office of Tarique Rahman, and the rogue son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia.

It felt as if a thunderbolt struck me when Mozzem Hossain, a journalist of BBC Bangla in Bush House, London told me that the foreign journalists, Priscilla Raj, and the driver of a rented vehicle were arrested under a fictitious sedition case.

I quickly gave my first reaction to both BBC Bangla, BBC World Service, and numerous international media. The daily newspapers and private news channels had been agog with the sensational news of the detention of foreign journalists.

The news also splashed in major global media, as the regime’s “Operation Clean Heart” was squarely blamed for extra-judicial deaths and enforced disappearances of hundreds of opposition members deemed a threat to the ruling party. Janakantha newspaper reported that the FIR filed with Motijheel Police Station had only four names -- foreign journalists, an interpreter, and the name of a driver. 

Next to the driver’s name was the handwritten name “alias Saleem Samad.” My name was blue-pencilled by the Home Affairs Ministry, by the hybrid journalist leaders. 

My defense lawyers, Barrister Amirul Islam and Barrister Tania Amir, explained that I was neither aged 28, nor a driver by profession, and my parent’s name and address do not match the one mentioned in the police report. 

On the fourth day, the home of my parents in Pallabi, where I also lived with my family, was thoroughly searched for 28 (RPT 28) hours. 

My family was on the run, as security agencies wanted to retrieve the spare hard-disk from my son Atisha Rahbar. My parents were locked downstairs, while every inch of the two-storied house was thoroughly searched. All the books and documents were carefully scanned. 

On the fifth day, in the wee hours of Friday during the month of Ramadan, I was picked up by detectives from a flat in Uttara belonging to a Crack Platoon veteran, my school-mate Ishtiaq Aziz Ulfat. 

I was brought to the Detective Branch office at Mintoo Road. A delinquent police officer Kohinoor Miah attacked me with a baton and, also brandishing his service pistol on my forehead, accused me of betraying the country and slandering the image of the state. Well, it was Khaleda’s regime that smeared the country.

After 55 days, on the order of the High Court, I was freed on January 18, 2003.

First published in the Dhaka Tribune on 1 December 2020

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist, media rights defender, and recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He can be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter @saleemsamad

Remembering the August bloodbath

SALEEM SAMAD

On this day in 2004, Sheikh Hasina survived a brutal attack on the Awami League leadership

As dusk fell on August 21, 2004, I received a desperate phone call from a diplomat (his identity cannot be disclosed). His voice was very urgent and he said his head of mission demanded to know whether Sheikh Hasina was safe.

Hasina was an opposition leader of the Awami League and was intermittently boycotting the parliament sessions to protest against the stubbornness of the ruling alliance of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami in refusing the opposition adequate participation in the parliamentary debate.

Why, what’s the news of Sheikh Hasina, I asked the diplomat? He disclosed that several hand bombs were lobbed at the rally, dozens of senior AL leaders were wounded, and many more were dead and nearly 200 rally participants were grievously injured at Bangabandhu Avenue. Please call back to confirm her status, whether she is injured and where she is now.

The call came 20 minutes after the brutal attack, which is believed to have had an objective to eliminate Sheikh Hasina, neutralize the Awami League party by killing senior leaders, and thus, the opposition would be paralyzed.

It was an evil dream of Hawa Bhaban, the de facto power out of Prime Minister’s Office. He manned a separate office in the posh Banani area by Prime Minister Khaleda Zia’s eldest son -- an obtrusive politician Tarique Rahman (a fugitive in exile in London); I could not digest the breaking news.

I began to call the press photographers, including Pavel Rahman of Associated Press, Rafiqur Rahman of Reuters, Shambunath Nandi of Bangladesh Observer, and few others. Unfortunately, none of them responded to my phone calls.

Out of the blue, my colleague in the Bangladesh Observer, Khandaker Mohitul Islam Ranju, called me. He was listening to the rally near Dhaka Stadium, a stone’s throw distance from the scene of the occurrence, and a stark witness of the carnage.

Quickly, I asked him about Hasina, whether he has had any knowledge of her status. He said he couldn’t confirm her status.

Still not getting information about Hasina, I called a field officer of National Security Intelligence (NSI). After several anxious calls on his mobile phone, finally he responded in a stress-free mood as if nothing had happened.

I asked whether he had any information about Hasina. Promptly he said that the rally had ended more than an hour ago and Hasina must have left the place.

My second quick question was, where was he? He replied that he was at a music store at Topkhana Road (not far from the venue) and was listening to Rabindra Sangeet with a headphone. The third question was, did you not listen from other field officers of what happened at Bangabandhu Avenue over walkie-talkie? He said his walkie-talkie was switched off.

I repeated what I heard from the diplomat and my journalist friend. He laughed at the information I shared with him. I earnestly requested him to switch on his walkie-talkie.

Once he switched on the two-way radio, I could hear clattering noises from his radio. Before I could request him to call back on any news of Hasina, he hung up and did not respond to my calls throughout the night.

Three hours after the incident, still no news of the fate of Hasina. Ranju called back and confirmed that Hasina’s private security had dashed her to Dhanmondi. I asked him which hospital in Dhanmondi. He said no, she has reached her Shuda Shadan residence. The following day, while walking to the place of occurrence from Press Club, I met the NSI officer (his name has been suppressed for security reasons) walking towards the Secretariat Building.

While walking and talking, I asked him why he had abandoned his position in the rally and was listening to music. He replied that his superior officer had asked all the Field Officers to leave the venue after Hasina arrived at Bangabandhu Avenue. So, he moved away, ad as nothing else was expected otherwise, he switched off the radio.

By the way, who was his superior? He did not hesitate to indicate that it was none other than the director-general of NSI, Major General Rezaqul Haider Chowdhury (a notorious officer presently languishing in prison pending appeal verdict of the infamous 10-truck arms haul in Chittagong).

To my surprise, he voluntarily gave me additional information that the NSI chief was at Holy Family Hospital at Eskaton instead of Combined Military Hospital on the fateful evening. “Now you understand who is responsible for the incident,” the NSI officer said and walked away, requesting me not to quote him ever.

Describing the incident, lawmaker Saber Hossain Chowdhury and former junior minister in previous Awami League cabinet said the driver of the vehicle intelligently outwitted the assassins and bombers and saved Hasina from the attack.

The customized bullet-proof vehicle Range Rover, a gift of Chowdhury, was shot several times. The snipers continued to target the grieving Hasina seated on the front passenger side to accomplish their killing mission. The windshield, window, and door bore marks of bullets.

The assassin team had deployed sharp-shooters in strategic points on rooftops. On an ominous day, armed police were deliberately not positioned on the rooftops on duty.

As soon as the vehicle managed to manoeuvre out of the massacre site, the nervous Special Branch officer onboard the escape vehicle sought clearance over his walkie-talkie for a secured route. An unnamed officer in the control room barked at him to wait for the police escort vehicle, but the driver refused to listen.

The vehicle zigzagged through the Dhaka University campus and reached home safely in 15 minutes and, thus, Sheikh Hasina cheated death.

First published in The Dhaka Tribune, 20 August 2020

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist, media rights defender, and recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He can be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com. Twitter @saleemsamad

Water tortured: The romance between Bangladesh and India is star-crossed

ENGULFED by India, its giant neighbour to the west, north and east, Bangladesh can look small. But it is the world’s eighth most populous country, with one of its fastest-growing economies. And its location, between India and South-East Asia, with a long littoral on the Indian Ocean, puts it in the thick of things, geopolitically speaking.

China clearly sees some potential. Xi Jinping, its president, visited last year and pledged $15bn in loans. China is Bangladesh’s biggest trading partner—and arms make up a good chunk of that trade. Two Chinese submarines arrived on credit in March. Bangladesh is the third-biggest buyer of Chinese arms, after two other neighbours of India.

India is responding with a charm offensive of its own. When Bangladesh’s prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, made a four-day state visit to Delhi that concluded on April 10th, her Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, made sure she did not go back empty-handed. He offered $5bn in loans, including $1bn for a Russian-backed nuclear plant, Bangladesh’s first; and $500m to buy Indian arms. The two countries signed a defence agreement committing them to deeper co-operation. India promised more cross-border electricity and railway lines.

But there was no progress on what mattered most to Sheikh Hasina: a treaty on how to share the water of the 53 rivers that flow from , Pakistan and Myanmar.

India to Bangladesh. One river in particular, the Teesta, has become the focus of attention. Bangladesh wants the water split evenly, whereas the Indian state of West Bengal claims 55%. Mr Modi has promised to resolve the issue, but his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) governs only one of the four states bordering Bangladesh. The chief minister of West Bengal refuses to let him bid away her state’s stake in the Teesta. Sheikh Hasina had made an urgent pitch in the Hindu, an Indian newspaper, arguing “friendship is a flowing river”. She went home shrugging: “We sought water, but got electricity.”

Even if the water of the Teesta was his to give, Mr Modi might find it awkward to become too chummy with Sheika Hasina. Stoking resentment against Muslims, and against illegal immigrants from Bangladesh in particular, has proved a successful electoral formula for the BJP. Sheikh Hasina, for her part, is ignoring the Bangladeshi army’s instinctive suspicion of India to sign the security pact. The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has accused her of selling out, and promised to scrap it if it comes to power. The Teesta is another handy stick with which the BNP can beat the government. Geography has thrust India and Bangladesh together, but domestic politics still pushes them apart.

Published in the Economist magazine, April 14th 2017

Jam'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh: Latent Threat

SANCHITA BHATTACHARYA

In an attempt to re-assert itself in Bangladesh, extremists belonging to the banned Jam'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) targeted a prison van and freed three of their comrades on February 23, 2014. The prison transport was taking them from Kashimpur Prison in Gazipur District to a court in the Trishal Sub-district area of Mymenshingh District. The driver of the van, Police Constable Atiqul Islam, was killed in the attack, while two other Policemen sustained injuries. The freed terrorists were identified as Jahidul Islam alias Boma Mizan, Salauddin Salehin alias Sunny and Hafez Mahmud alias Raqib Hasan alias Rasel. All three were members of the Majlish-e-Shura(highest decision making body) of JMB. Later, on February 24, 2014, Raqib was killed in crossfire between terrorists and the Police in the Mirzapur sub-District area of the neighbouring Tangail District.

While Raqib and Salauddin were on death row, Jahidul was serving a life sentence, each for his involvement in the August 17, 2005, countrywide explosions. 459 explosions had occurred in 63 of Bangladesh's 64 Districts (excluding Munshiganj) killing three and injuring more than 100 people. On the day of the prison van attack, the three were scheduled to appear before the court in connection with another bombing at a cinema hall in Mymenshingh on December 7, 2002, in which 18 people were killed and 300 were injured.

A massive manhunt is underway for their capture and authorities have declared a bounty of BDT 200,000 for each of them. A high alert has also been issued in prisons across Bangladesh, where convicted or under-trial Islamist radicals are lodged.

Tangail Police have claimed that the present JMB 'chief' Anwar Hossain Faruk led the operation and over BDT six million was spent for the mission. On September 15, 2012, in a report handed over to the Government by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), it was stated that Bangladesh faced a significant risk of money laundering and some risk of terrorism financing. The report, inter alia, also observed that some outfits, including JMB, were active in Bangladesh and JMB cadres had publicly claimed receiving funds from Saudi Arabia.

With the exception of this latest attack, the JMB has not carried out any significant operation in the recent past. However, in 2011, JMB had threatened to kill Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh, and to blow up the Chittagong District Central Jail and Court Building. A letter, claimed to have been signed by JMB terrorist, Abdul Mannan reached the Jailor, Rafiqul Quader, by post on January 5, 2011, threatening to bomb the Jail and Court building if detained JMB cadres and leaders were not released within a month. The attack never took place. The last major attack carried out by JMB was on November 14, 2005, when a JMB cadre belonging to the suicide squad exploded a bomb, killing two senior assistant judges, Shaheed Sohel Ahmed and Jagannath Pandey, and wounding three people in the District Headquarters of Jhalakathi District.

The long hiatus in activities was, most likely, primarily due to intensive security measures undertaken by the Security Forces (SFs). Most recently, on February 24, 2014, Police recovered one shotgun, one bullet and three shells from Tangail District after killing Raqib. Again, on March 14, 2014, 4.5 kilograms of explosives were recovered from a JMB hideout in Mymenshingh District, and two JMB terrorists were arrested. Earlier, on August 23, 2013, a cache of arms and ammunition, including a Submachine Gun (SMG), a Light Machine Gun (LMG), foreign made pistols, and 80 bullets, were recovered from three JMB terrorists in Thanthania of Bogra District. On, January 9, 2012, several publications of the banned organisation and some books giving instructions on how to make bombs and operate firearms like AK-47, were recovered from the Uttara area of Dhaka city, along with the arrest of JMB activist Emdadul Haque Uzzal.

According to partial data collected by Institute for Conflict Management, since 2005, a total of 521 JMB terrorists have been arrested from across Bangladesh in 260 incidents (data till March 28, 2014). Prominent among these were: former 'chief' Moulana Saidur Rahman; 'commander' of the Dhaka zone, Mohtasim Billah alias Bashir; former 'second-in-command' Mahtab Khamaru; Mohammad Asaduzzaman 'chief' of the Khulna divisional unit; Mohammad Wahab, 'head' of the Savar zone; former 'acting chief' Anwar Alam alias Nazmul alias Bhagne Shahid; Chittagong 'divisional commander’ Javed Iqbal; Mehedi Hasan alias Abeer, in charge of  the Khulna Division; Zahirul Islam alias Zahid alias Badal, in charge of the Dhaka Division (North); Dhaka ‘divisional commander’ Salahuddin alias Salehin; Sherpur ‘district commander’ Mujahidul Islam Sumon; and Emranul Haque alias Rajib 'chief' of the information technology (IT) wing.

These arrests, as well as intermittent recoveries, enormously weakened the outfit. Crucially, JMB lost its strength considerably in 2007. On March 30, 2007, six top JMB terrorists, including the outfit’s then 'chief' Abdur Rahman and ‘second-in-command’, Siddiqul Islam alias Bangla Bhai’ were executed. The other terrorists hanged were Majlish-e-Shura members Abdul Awal, Khaled Saifullah and Ataur Rahman Sunny and suicide squad member Iftekhar Hasan Al-Mamun.

JMB was founded in 1998 by Shaikh Abdur Rahman, with the objective of establishing Islamic rule in Bangladesh and to replace the current state and constitution. It opposes the existing political system and seeks to "build a society based on the Islamic model laid out in Holy Quran-Hadith." It opposes democracy, socialism as well as cultural functions, cinema halls, shrines and NGOs. A report issued in November 2011 by the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point notes: “JMB's actual cadre strength is unknown. Bangladeshi law enforcement agencies identified 8,096 JMB members, of which 2,000 were allegedly part of the group's ‘suicide squad’...”

Current reports suggest that JMB still has around 1,000 active workers, mostly in the Ahl-e-Hadis belt of northern Bangladesh. Its current strategy is to re-build the outfit into a Taliban-like organisation to establish a Shariah based state.

Intelligence sources indicate that the Bangladesh Government had succeeded in arresting and trying a significant number of terrorists over the last seven years. According to media report, between 2007 and 2014, 478 JMB operatives were tried in 177 cases; of these, 51 top leaders of the outfit were sentenced to death, but are also facing trials in several other cases and accordingly, their execution may take years. Meanwhile, many of the arrested terrorists have slipped through legal loopholes and regrouped to strengthen the terrorist formation. Moreover, another approximately 270 cadres, wanted in different cases are still at large, raising a significant threat of terror attacks.

The enormity and protraction of ongoing cases and the lack of a fast-track trial process creates ample opportunities for the outfit to attempt future 'hijack' incidents to rescue their convicted operatives. Unsurprisingly, on February 24, 2014, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed asked the Law Ministry to take effective measures to ensure speedy disposal of cases relating to terrorism.

Crucially, since the establishment of International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) on March 15, 2010, the country has been engrossed with the War Crimes Trials, even as the administration is preoccupied with protest rallies and general shutdowns orchestrated by Islamist extremists led by the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and its students' wing Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS) in collusion with the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The rising graph of fatalities in attacks carried out by these extremists since the establishment of the ICT has become a matter of immediate concern. At least 435 people - 255 civilians, 27 SF personnel and 153 terrorists - have been killed in such violence between March 15, 2010 and March 30, 2014. This has resulted in a measure of neglect as far as other terrorist formations in the country are concerned, primarily including JMB, which also has proven links with the JeI. In July 2010, detained then 'chief' of JMB, Saidur Rahman had disclosed the JMB link with JeI.

Inspector General of Police Hassan Mahmood Khandker, on February 23, 2014, admitted that “terrorists are still active in the country,” but asserted further that “the situation is under our control now.” With desperate efforts at revival, however, the surviving extremist organisations in the country continue to pose a tangible threat to the fragile sense of control that has been established in Bangladesh, and the danger of a rash of terrorist incidents is never entirely excluded. The freeing of leadership elements of the JMB in the February 23 incidents underlines, and can only compound, this latent risk.

First published South Asia Intelligence Review, Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 39, March 31, 2014

Sanchita Bhattacharya is a Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management