Defiant Sheikh Hasina refuses to apologize for her crimes

SALEEM SAMAD

Ousted Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina refused to apologize for the bloody crackdown on street protests that led to her downfall last year, and tells international media outlets that she has no intention to leave India.

Last week, Sheikh Hasina from her safe house – somewhere in Delhi, India gave written interviews to Reuters, The Independent, and French news agency AFP.

The interviews via email with international outlets were her first media engagements since her autocratic regime collapsed during the Monsoon Revolution. She spoke her mind, planned on her exile, her political party, Awami League, the upcoming election sans Awami League, and, of course, critiquing the Interim Government, describing it as an “illegal” government. She blamed the Yunus government was “sowing the seeds” of further division in her country.

The three international media which were published on the same day – the 78-year-old former leader remained defiant in her exile, rejecting charges of crimes against humanity and describing her ongoing trial as “politically motivated.” Despite her failure to hold free, fair, and inclusive elections in three consecutive sham polls during her 15-year rule, she has now demanded that the Interim Government should hold an inclusive election.

“Elections without the direct participation of all major parties, including the Awami League, cannot be credible,” she said. It should be pointed out that Hasina has been accused of disenfranchising millions of voters through holding elections in 2014, 2018, and 2024 without the participation of opposition parties.

The same opposition, Hasina once castigated, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is seen as the frontrunner, while Jamaat-e-Islami, the Sunni Muslim-majority country’s largest Islamist party, is rising in popularity during post Hasina.

The Election Commission suspended the Awami League’s registration in May. Earlier, the government banned all party activities, citing national security threats and crimes against humanity probe into senior Awami League leaders.

She warned that the ban on her Awami League by the interim government of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was deepening a political crisis in the country of 170 million people, ahead of elections slated for February 2026. Millions of supporters of Bangladesh’s Awami League will boycott next year’s national election, Hasina told Reuters from her exile in India.

Hasina, 78, said she would not return to Bangladesh under any government formed after elections that exclude her party, and plans to remain in India to live “quietly and freely”, where she fled in August 2024 following a deadly student-led uprising. She added that she had “no intention of seeking asylum beyond India (in a third country).”

“The ban on the Awami League is not only unjust, it is self-defeating,” Hasina said in emailed responses to Reuters — her first media engagement since her dramatic fall from power after being elected to power for the fifth tenure.

“The next government must have electoral legitimacy,” Hasina told Reuters. “Millions of people support the Awami League cannot disenfranchise millions of people.” Political analyst Mohiuddin Ahmad said that Hasina shouldn’t expect from an “illegal” government. She has no alternative but to remain calm and enjoy the hospitality of Delhi.

Hasina is in exile in New Delhi for the second time. Earlier, she stayed for six years, from 1975 to 1981. Later, she returned to Bangladesh as president of Awami League, and in 1996, she was elected Prime Minister for the first time. The 78-year-old former leader remained defiant, rejecting charges of crimes against humanity and describing her ongoing trial as “politically motivated.”

The Prosecutors of the International Crimes Tribunal, a Bangladesh war-crimes court, are seeking the death penalty for Hasina, accusing her of crimes against humanity by ordering the use of lethal force against student protesters, resulting in up to 1,400 deaths.

In her AFP interview, Hasina rejected the accusations of crimes against humanity, insisting they were “not supported by any evidence” and that the tribunal was appointed by an administration that included her political opponents.

Hasina contested the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) death toll claim during the July Uprising in 2024, saying that “the 1,400 figure is useful to the ICT for propaganda purposes but is probably inflated”.

Prosecutors have sought the death penalty for Hasina, accusing her of ordering lethal force against protesters in July and August 2024, when as many as 1,400 people were killed and thousands were injured, according to what the United Nations described. Hasina is defended in ICT by a state-appointed lawyer, but said she would only recognize an “impartial” process, such as one at the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Hasina, meanwhile, has defied court orders to return to attend her trial on whether she bears command responsibility for the deadly crackdown, charges amounting to crimes against humanity under Bangladeshi law. A verdict is due on 13 November. In response to AFP, Hasina also condemned her crimes against humanity trial as a “jurisprudential joke”, adding she believed a guilty verdict was “preordained”. Her critics, including interim officials and human rights lawyers, say she bears “command responsibility” for the use of lethal force. Chief prosecutor Tajul Islam described her as “the nucleus around whom all the crimes were committed,” urging the court to impose the death penalty if found guilty.

Bangladesh’s premier English newspaper, the Daily Star’s own investigations found that Hasina had personally authorized the use of lethal weapons. The newspaper had published a leaked phone recording from 18 July 2024 where Hasina tells her nephew, former Dhaka South Mayor Fazle Noor Taposh, “I have given instructions, now I have given direct instructions; now they will use lethal weapons. Wherever they find them [protesters], they will shoot directly.” “The charge that I personally directed security forces to open fire on crowds is bogus,” Hasina told AFP, while conceding that “some mistakes were certainly made within the chain of command.” “They’ve been brought by kangaroo courts, with guilty verdicts a foregone conclusion,” she told Reuters, adding that she would “neither be surprised nor intimidated” if she were sentenced to death.

She told the Independent that she “mourns each and every child, sibling, cousin, and friend we lost as a nation,” but refused to issue a formal apology, arguing that the unrest was manipulated by her political rivals to topple her government. “I mourn the lives we lost, but I reject the false allegation that I ordered police to shoot demonstrators,” she said.

Rights groups, including the Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, long accused her government of a litany of abuses, including the murder of rivals, suppression of opposition parties, rigged courts, and one-sided elections.

In response to AFP, Hasina said her priority now was “the welfare and stability of Bangladesh,” while her party explores legal and diplomatic avenues to contest its exclusion from the political process.” 

Yunus must reinstate the Awami League to give Bangladeshis the choice they deserve.” 

To conclude, Awami League’s return to power, in any foreseeable future, remains a political impossibility, Abu Jakir wrote in a news portal, Bangla Outlook.

This article was published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, on 2 November 2025

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist based in Bangladesh and a media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders. He is the recipient of the Ashoka Fellowship and the Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at: saleem.samad.1971@gmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

https://stratheia.com/defiant-sheikh-hasina-refuses-to-apologize-for-her-crimes/

India Never Questioned the Bangladesh Elections

SALEEM SAMAD

Last week, the Indian External Affairs Secretary Vikram Misri opined that Bangladesh should hold a free, fair, and inclusive election. It is fair to make a generalist statement to a group of visiting Bangladeshi journalists in Delhi.

The Bangladesh Foreign Affairs Advisor Touhid Ahmed, in a rebuttal, said that the Indian foreign secretary’s remark on the upcoming polls was ‘completely unwarranted’, saying that it is entirely an internal affair of the country.

“I see that statement as not their matter; it is entirely an internal issue for Bangladesh, and such comments are completely unwarranted,” he told local reporters recently. Prof Muhammad Yunus has announced that the general election will be held next February. The announcement was made after several parleys with political parties.

The journalists did not counter that the ousted Sheikh Hasina had held elections in 2014, 2018, and 2024. The three elections were fraudulently organized sans opposition political parties. Tens of thousands of opposition leaders, members, and sympathizers were held in prison for months during each election. What the journalists could not respond that, soon after the questionable elections were held, India was the first country to congratulate Hasina for being elected for another term of office.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in the days after elections, posted a congratulatory message on Twitter (X) hailing Hasina for holding an election. Such a post gives a hidden message that India will always remain beside Bangladesh. Delhi never advised Dhaka to hold a free, fair, and inclusive election. Possibly Hindu-extremist ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) never wanted to embarrass their all-weather friend Hasina in urging to hold credible elections in Bangladesh.

Several countries in the West, including the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, the United Nations, and even Japan, urged Hasina to hold free, fair, and inclusive elections. Their request fell on deaf ears. She often barked at the West, stating that they are creating political pressure on her government in the election, and told conspiracy theories. This was later found to be based on misinformation and fake news.

In another statement by the Indian External Affairs Secretary that India would continue to engage with whoever comes to power in Bangladesh through free, fair, transparent, internationally recognized, and participatory elections. This statement was clearly understood, that India will reset its button after an elected government takes charge, likely in the coming February. Until then, the hot and cold relations will continue during the Interim Government. Delhi South Block will continue to go slow in bilateral relations with Dhaka. Whichever political party comes to power, it will be critical of India’s foreign policy and bilateral relations. The new government will vehemently oppose the Indians in every sphere.

The new democratically elected government will demand to resolve the long dispute on water-sharing, border-killing by Indian forces, pushing “illegal migrants” through the porous borders, lopsided trade balance, and other issues, including relaxing the visa regime. On the visa regime: India has clamped a moratorium on the issuance of tourist visas to Bangladeshi nationals since the ouster of Hasina. Except for one in Dhaka, other visa centers have been shut down for more than a year.

The Bangladeshi journalists have raised the issue of the visa regime in Delhi South Block. Indian Secretary Misri did not give a plan for resuming visas to Bangladeshi. On the other hand, Bangladesh missions in India have continued issuing visas to Indian nationals on a priority basis. Yunus urged the diplomatic missions abroad to expedite visas to journalists. Now all missions have been issuing visas to foreign journalists, including Indian scribes.

Earlier, journalists seeking a visa faced a hassle and were often turned down or rejected. The visa application first arrives at the Foreign Ministry. The application travels through the bureaucrat’s desk of the Home Affairs Ministry and the Information Ministry. After approval, the journalists and TV crew were given visas. Before arriving in Bangladesh, the journalists or TV crews were briefed on do’s and don’ts. After arriving in the country, the smart guys from the security agencies kept surveillance of their movements, the people they met, and the places they visited.

The crucial issue would be to extradite Sheikh Hasina from a military safe-house somewhere in Delhi without any conditions. Another critical issue would be to deport hundreds of most-wanted Awami League leaders, party members, and their cohorts living in exile, mostly in Kolkata. According to The Print, an Indian portal, it is estimated that 1,300 Awami League leaders and members are living in India. Their official status of staying in India is unknown.

The Awami League has opened two offices in Kolkata and New Delhi. Delhi has not commented on the party leaders and members overstaying in India, and has also made no comment on their offices in India. If Delhi does not comply with the extradition of the wanted persons within the stipulated deadline, the new government in Dhaka will surely declare non-cooperation with India. Many other actions will follow, which will be difficult for Delhi to digest.

What Ambassador Humayun Kabir, also President of Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI), says India never faced any challenges from Bangladesh. Prof Yunus deliberately avoids confrontation with India. Even then, Yunus is despised by the Delhi South Block and the BJP. The upcoming political government in 2026, the Bangladesh-India relations are likely to turn sour, and the bone of contention will center on Hasina.

India will be in a dilemma to extradite Hasina and improve the relations or keep her in a safe-house and jeopardize the relations, says Kabir. India will bully Bangladesh, which will not be liked by the West. She (India) will not be able to justify the poor relations with Bangladesh to the West, nor can she raise the issue to the United Nations or any world forum to resolve the bilateral relations.

First published in Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 09 October 2025

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist based in Bangladesh and a media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders. He is the recipient of the Ashoka Fellowship and the Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at <saleem.samad.1971@gmail.com>; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

https://stratheia.com/india-never-questioned-the-bangladesh-elections/

Growing Pressure on Dr. Yunus for Early Elections

SALEEM SAMAD

When Sheikh Hasina came to power, the new generation (Gen Z) had not seen free, fair, and inclusive elections since 2008. Election observers described the parliament elections under her 15-year autocratic regime as fraud, and the poll results were cropped.

The international media had widely reported how elections in Bangladesh in 2014, 2018, and 2024 were held under the cover of darkness, keeping thousands of opposition leaders and members in prison.

The rights organizations repeatedly made loud noise, but Hasina ignored their calls to hold free and fair elections. Instead, she was beating African drums that the country belongs to her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who was ordained as the architect of Bangladesh’s independence signalling she has the right the govern with an iron hand.

Amid cheering crowds, she often boasted that her father had made the country independent and was known as Bangabandhu (Friend of Bangladesh). Otherwise, she explained, the nation would have been subjugated by Pakistan’s military establishment, making them second-class citizens.

Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus took charge of an Interim Government backed by defiant student leaders and the military after they forced the Iron Lady (Hasina) to abdicate her power and flee to India, where she is living in exile.

The political parties except the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami have demanded an election at the soonest, indicating before the end of this year. Yunus charted a path to reforms to establish pluralism, democracy, and human rights, he announced in an address to the nation that several commissions suggested reforms to key state organs.

He conveyed to the political leaders that the elections would be held only after the reforms on Electoral System, Constitution, Public Administration, Judiciary, Financial Institutions, Media, Police Administration, and Anti-Corruption were made effective. The political parties and civil society welcomed his initiative.

When military dictator General Muhammad Ershad was ousted by students backed by the military in 1990, the mainstream opposition parties signed an election pledge prepared by the student leaders. The opposition leaders promised to implement the reforms in key state organs.

Sheikh Hasina, Khaleda Zia, and the Left Alliance jointly signed a tripartite political commitment that they will implement the reforms after winning the elections. Unfortunately, both the Begums went to power again and again but they deliberately avoided implementing the pro-people pledge.

After decades of bad governance, poor accountability and transparency, Yunus is determined to see a new Bangladesh, which adheres to the principles of international covenants to put the country at a respectable height on the world stage.

The reforms are supposed to guarantee democracy, pluralism, accountability, transparency, independence of the judiciary, independent election commission, freedom of expression, press freedom, and human rights. He has reiterated that the elections will be held once the reforms have taken off the ground zero.

Most political scientists and think tanks believe that the political parties would agree not to disagree. Later the politicians, when elected, the painstakingly homework for reforms would be binned. For more than five decades the political parties that ruled the nation were intolerant and arrogant. At times reacted very violently.

The politicians publicly flouted the rule of law, punished the journalists for exposing their corruption, and ignored the accountability of elected representatives of public offices. They often coerced police and judiciary to ensure that their blue-eyed boys were kept out of prison for extortion from traders and protection money from industrialists, while their rivals were severely punished and blocked from politics.

The visible challenges in front of Yunus are acting as a stumbling block in the accountability of bureaucracy, judiciary and law and order situation. The police are unable to restore lawlessness and control price hikes in kitchen markets.

There is no guarantee clause to be signed by politicians, that the reforms should be taken into cognizance in “good faith” by the ‘untamed’ political parties. Yunus told in an interview with an editor of a Bangladesh newspaper that the leaders of the political parties when they held parleys with him were polite and humble.

However, when they spoke to the journalists, they gave a different statement which they did not put on the table of discussion with the Chief Adviser of the Interim Government. It is strange but it is a fact, he told the editor.

The recent spree of vandalism and demolition of the Bangabandhu Museum, the former residence of the first President of Bangladesh, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman on 5 February. Students went berserk in several cities and towns in the looting and arson of Awami League senior leaders, who were deemed icons of accomplices to autocratic Hasina’s misrule.

The Chief Adviser in a tone of warning that certain groups are pushing the nation into anarchy and lawlessness. The inventor of micro-credit Prof Yunus calls on all citizens “to immediately restore complete law and order and to ensure there will be no further attacks on properties” associated with the family of the ousted Sheikh Hasina and politicians of the fascist Awami League party or against any citizen on any pretext.

He, however, said the outrage has sparked from her (Hasina) refuge in New Delhi, and from there she continues to mobilize her militants to hamper Bangladesh’s recovery from years of abuse under her 15-year rule.

If any attempt is made to destabilize the country through any kind of provocative activities, law enforcement agencies will immediately take strict action against anyone acting to create chaos and anarchy, which includes the destruction of property. The government will bring the responsible individuals and groups to justice, he stated.

While the vandalism and looting, the law enforcement agencies were playing as silent spectators when the mobs were rioting. Several civil society, rights, and citizens groups strongly condemned the vandalism, arson, and looting of family members of Hasina and Awami League leaders.

Celebrated feminist Bangladeshi writer Taslima Nasreen, who lives in exile in India, has called the demolition of Sheikh Mujib’s residence an act of “Islamic terrorists”.

The Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Dr Shafiqur Rahman said “If the ongoing madness does not stop, Bangladesh will be heading towards civil war.” While, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) said in a statement that they will hold talks with Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus as soon as possible to express their concern over the country’s “deteriorating” law and order situation, especially the demolition of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s residence in Dhaka.

They fear that these attacks and vandalism in the last two days could pose a serious threat to national stability and disrupt the upcoming national election, a BNP statement said. It is understood that on the issue of appalling law and order status, the political parties will press Yunus to hold elections in the coming winter.

Most political analysts argue that Yunus may not agree to their demand for an early election, unless the reforms get tacit approval from all political parties, except for the former ruling party Awami League. Most of the like-minded political parties, except the Islamist parties, are lisping the same jargon as the BNP’s political agenda of early election.

Will an election roadmap neutralize the political crisis? Writer and researcher on political history Mohiuddin Ahmad does not believe that the situation will improve; rather, it may worsen.

Most political parties have extended their support to the Interim Government led by Prof Yunus. However, they argue that in the last six months, the government has failed in various areas, including controlling the price of daily essentials and improving the law and order situation.

As a result, there are doubts about their ability to control any situation in the country. The last two days of vandalism have added to the crisis of confidence. Ahmad remarked that if the government announces an election roadmap, there will be a further crisis when local party leaders clash with rivals in electioneering.

The government and mainstream political parties should focus on the country’s image and stability. Because if there is no stability, everything including democracy and elections will suffer, said political scientist Professor Mahbub Ullah to BBC Bangla Service.

First published in the Stratheia, Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 9 February 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Bangladesh goes to polls amid ailing democracy

SALEEM SAMAD

After much international media hype on the Bangladesh election, the day dawned on 7 January.

On the eve of the tense election battle of the ballots, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Rights to Freedom of Peaceful Assembly and of Association, Clément Nyaletsossi Voule, called the election environment in Bangladesh “repressive” and said that he is “deeply disturbed”.

The Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) has expressed profound concern over the 12th Parliamentary Elections to ensure free and fair elections in Asia voiced its concern.

ANFREL said they strongly believed that this election is at risk of lacking genuineness and electoral competitiveness, raising serious questions about its adherence to democratic principles and international election standards that assess the legitimacy of the electoral process.

The statement also said ANFREL believes that the risk of lacking genuineness and electoral competitiveness emanates from the observed absence of accountability, fairness, and inclusivity in the electoral processes.

Amnesty issued a 10-point human rights charter and urged all contesting political parties to ensure that the protection and promotion of human rights is a core part of their plans for the country.

The 10 points: Respect and protect freedom of expression and media freedom; Protect the protest; Sustainable solutions to the Rohingya crisis; End impunity for enforced disappearances and extrajudicial executions; Protect women’s rights; Protect the rights of religious minorities and indigenous peoples; Abolish the death penalty; Inclusive, sustainable responses to the climate crisis; End impunity for custodial deaths and torture; and Uphold corporate accountability and labour rights.

The question they are addressing to the wrong group of politicians, and political parties including the governing Awami League. None of them has the mood to listen to the civil society and often blames them for working for the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami.

On the other hand, a senior Indian journalist Bharat Bhusan writes that the staged election could result in political instability in the country. He believes that the national election on January 7 is widely expected to be neither inclusive nor competitive.

Instability, because Bangladesh has fallen into geo-political fault. China, Russia and India want Sheikh Hasina, the president of the Awami League should return to power with an overwhelming majority.

India’s conspicuous silence over the one-sided election has encouraged China and Russia to adopt a similar policy to keep Hasina in power for another term.

China and Russia are singing the same tune, which could be understood to counter the United States, European Union and other West putting pressure on Bangladesh to hold a free, fair and inclusive election.

The election needs no prediction as BBC News dubbed the polls as a ‘one-woman’ election, while the result already looks inevitable, writes Anbarasan Ethirajan.

The predicted win of stage-managed win in the election would be a win for India, Russia and China.

It’s an election of Awami League versus Dummy League. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has advised his political hierarchy to nominate ‘dummy’ candidates to ensure that if the contestant application is rejected by a higher court or the election commission, at least there is one standby candidate to fight the ballot.

As the dummy candidates have no political credibility and accountability in their constituency they are known to be troublemakers for the rebel candidates who failed to get nomination from governing Awami League.

The dummy candidates are also a political nuisance in the area for obstructing independent candidates, also creating rowdyism for other party candidates.

There are reports of clashes and attacks on rival candidates in scores of district towns. News of vandalism of polling centres is also pouring. Such incidents give a chilling message of violence during voting. The fear is likely to hinder voters from going to the polling station.

Such fear means the election is not free. The voters will go to the polling station with fear and impending violence among supporters and henchmen of rival candidates.

It is expected that violence would be lowest, as the Awami League has no opposition in the real sense. The independent and rebel candidates are unlikely to pose any threats.

In several seats, the rebel candidates are very influential and have a strong support base in the certain constituency. Most rebel candidates have strong people-to-people contacts.

The parliamentary election as Western and Indian media are agog with stories that the election is one-sided and Sheikh Hasina, the Mother-of-Humanity will be elected for the fifth tenure.

She will surely be included in the Guinness World Records, as the longest-serving woman prime minister in the world.

Well, the call for agitation by the BNP and its allies has fallen flat. As the BNP failed to garner the support of the people to protest the one-sided election.

Agitation in the form of a general strike (hartal) and lockdown to disconnect from the rest of the country could not woo the people to support the anti-government movement.

What did not surprise the political observers was that a significant number of candidates from the ‘loyal opposition’ Jatiya Party, Trinamool BNP and other King’s parties have stepped out of the election race.

More than 225 of the 265 Jatiya Party candidates have pulled out of the race, terming the election “one-sided and staged” and others blamed the non-cooperation of the ruling Awami League.

However, only the contestants who were blessed with a quota of 26 have not pulled out.

It’s too late for the candidates to drop out from the race as the last date for withdrawal has long gone.

The Bangladesh Election Commission has also reiterated that they also envisage holding a free and fair election, but could not assure that the election would be free of violence.

Despite repeated promises by the government and the election commission, it seems neither the West nor the international media are convinced that the election would be free, fair, credible and inclusive.

Meanwhile, foreign election observers will be only allowed to visit polling centres within a range oftwo-hour road drive. The observers can travel to cities and towns where domestic airlines fly.

The election commission has given election observer accreditation cards to 127 foreign observers.

On the other hand, the Ministry of Foreign Ministry, Information and Broadcasting, and Home Affairs have imposed conditions on foreign journalists to issue visas to cover the election. Only 73 journalists were accredited to cover the election and visit polling centres.

The award-winning journalist Nazmul Ahasan in a Twitter (X) posted that foreign journalists granted visas are mostly those based in the India bureau. Some are required to sign agreements mandating that their footage receives official approval before publication and that they will not harm the “national image” or “sentiment.”

Indirectly, the Bangladesh authorities have imposed censorship and restrictions on foreign journalists who are not free to report independently.

Bangladesh, the nation tests an ailing democracy on the ballot.

First published in the North East News, Guwahati, Assam, India, 6 January 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter: @saleemsamad

In search of an Opposition in Bangladesh election

 

SALEEM SAMAD

Nosy political scientist, political analyst and political observers have been scratching their heads to understand, where is the opposition in the upcoming national election scheduled to be held on January 7, 2024.

Which party will sit on the opposition bench in the magnificent iconic Jatiya Sangsad (parliament) building?

It should not sound strange that in an election, a party that gets a majority in an election forms a government, while the runners-up (second majority) takes a seat on the opposition bench in the parliament. That’s a norm in political science.

A day before, the European Union (EU) was equally curious to know where the opposition is.

The EU asked the governing Awami League general secretary, Obaidul Quader, to know who would be the opposition party in the 12th national parliament.

Quader, also Road Transport and Bridges Minister said ‘The results of the polls will tell who will be the opposition.’ Indeed, a simple answer to a complex question.

In Bangladesh, the governing party Awami League has ensured that the principal opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is eliminated and thousands of the key leaders, members and supporters are behind bars.

The trumped-up cases are mostly terrorism, vandalism and destruction of government properties.

The Awami League has sacrificed six constituencies for its alliance partners and 26 for the Jatiya Party in the national election, said the ruling party’s Office Secretary Biplob Barua that their party leaders have withdrawn their candidacies from these 32 seats. Thus the party will contest for 263 constituencies.

On the other hand, the Jatiya Party Secretary General Mujibul Haque Chunnu announced that the party will contest for 287 constituencies, out of 300.

With the Jatiya Party joining, the pre-election camp gets bigger, writes Jahidul Islam in the Business Standard.

If the Awami League shares seats with the Jatiya Party the latter will become a “loyal opposition” that will be subservient to the governing party and would hardly oppose not debate any bill that goes against the freedom and rights of the people.

The ‘loyal opposition’ will need not walk out from the session nor debate in the parliament, other than asking for political favour for the party and their members only.

Meanwhile, upbeat Awami League lawmaker Prof Mohammad A. Arafat and Chairman of Suchinta Foundation who is active on Twitter (X) writes: 30 former parliamentarians, including five advisors to the (opposition) BNP Chairperson and 15 members of the BNP Central Committee, are participating in the election. Apart from the central leaders, 87 leaders of the BNP, including the president, vice president, general secretary of the district, and upazila (sub-district) level, are contesting the election.

Arafat, who is an active cyber warrior against the opposition (BNP) and critic of the Awami League regime troll army, seems to justify the absence of BNP and others in the poll and remarked that “They look set to mount a tough challenge in many seats. In addition, the Jatiya Party and its 14-party partners will also face stiff competition in many seats. Trinamool BNP and BNM (Bangladesh Nationalist Movement) have also fielded strong candidates in many seats.

First published in the Northeast News, Guwahati, India, 27 December 2023

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter: @saleemsamad

Bangladesh election not likely in early January

SALEEM SAMAD

The much-awaited national election to the 12th Parliament of Bangladesh is likely to be rescheduled, and not postponed.

The governing party Awami League’s top leader Obaidul Quader and Minister for Roads and Bridges said on Wednesday that if the election date is rescheduled, his party does not have any objection. But, said subject to holding the election within the timeframe stipulated in the constitution.

However, Quader, General Secretary of Awami League added that the Election Commission has the authority to reschedule the election date and other dates.

There is enough room for an additional two weeks to hold the election.

An Election Commissioner earlier said the national election must be held by 29 January, under the constitution, to avert a potential political volatility akin to anarchy in the country.

Election Commissioner Mohammad Alamgir recently said, “Failure to do so would create a constitutional gap leading to a state of anarchy, which the Election Commission cannot allow.”

The election circus has already begun and the media is abuzz with news and speculative stories of cross-current and undercurrent of negotiating with the principal opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) to set aside their ego and participate in the election.

The political reporters cannot fathom the political development behind the curtain.

Hundreds of former bureaucrats, senior police officers, journalists, cricketers, entertainment industry artists, doctors, engineers, educationists, and lawyers have bought nominations for the Awami League.

The Election Commission is willing to reschedule the 12th parliamentary election if the BNP and other parties boycotting the polls officially change their mind and decide to participate in the election, Election Commissioner Rashida Sultana says.

Well, BNP has not responded to rescheduling the election date.

Last week, the BNP announced to boycott of the elections to the 12th parliament arguing that the election would not be free, fair and credible unless Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina stepped aside and an interim government to hold the election.

Hasina and her party are in power for the fourth consecutive tenure, thus becoming the longest-serving woman prime minister in the world, which is expected to enter into the Guinness Book of World Records.

However, if the opposition and others join, of course would be described as an inclusive election. The Election Commission would welcome their [opposition] participation, said another Election Commissioner Rashida Sultana.

The government has cracked down on opposition since BNP held a rally on 28 October to showcase strength in the capital Dhaka. The rally abruptly ended after police and ‘golden boys’ attacked the crowd.

Thousands of opposition members and more than a hundred key leaders are languishing in prisons on trumped-up charges for arson, vandalism of public properties, etcetera.

Hasina remarked “BNP is a party of terrorists” for their violent anti-government campaign and said there would be political dialogue with “terrorists”.

BNP has launched countrywide anti-government protests, which have been marked with violence, arson and vandalism.

The protest has led to further arrests of the leaders, party members and sympathisers from all over the country.

On the other hand, Hasina and her party stalwarts hectic negotiations with dissident leaders from BNP and the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) to join newly opened shops.

The Trinomul BNP and Amar Bangladesh (AB) Party formed with dissident leaders who had quit or were kicked out from the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami parties.

The higher court has banned JeI from contesting the election under the party name and election symbol.

A senior journalist Salauddin Babar of pro-JeI newspaper Naya Diganta, who is familiar with JeI’s policy said, the party has not been banned and therefore can continue in politics, except that the party cannot participate in any elections.

He, quickly added that JeI members, if the election is conducive for the party can contest as an independent candidate and also can join a like-minded political coalition and seek nomination from the alliance. There is no bar in doing that, Babar said.

Political historian Mohiuddin Ahmad says the windows have been opened to showcase the Bangladesh election as inclusive, but there is no guarantee that the election will be free, fair and violence-free.

Bangladesh election is riddled with a history of violence and violation since 1973, the first election, two years after the independence of the country, remarked Ahmad.

To assess the ground situation a pre-election Commonwealth mission is presently in Bangladesh.

The US-based International Republican Institute (IRI) and National Democratic Institute (NDI) have applied with the Election Commission for election international election observer credentials.

IRI and NDI will send five technical experts to assess the electoral violence conditions before, during and after the election day. The team is expected to be in Bangladesh for six to eight weeks.

The technical team will assess different types of election violence that occur in Bangladesh, including inter and intra-party violence, violence targeting women and other marginalised groups and communities, online harassment and threats, as well the role of state institutions in addressing these types of violence.

The European Union plans to send election observers for limited assessment before and after the election.

The question is abuzz who will bell the cat? The political observers means, who will convince the BNP to participate in the election.

If BNP joins, the government will have to bend to agree to a long list of pre-conditions, including unconditional release of their leaders and those arrested after police crackdown on 28th October. Drop all charges against opposition members.

The crucial issue is, whether the self-styled supremo Tarique Rahman, living in exile in London for two decades has no understanding of the ground reality, will allow his Dhaka-based acolytes to bargain with the government, when he is adamant not to hold dialogue with the state.

The nation has to wait and see the next round of political development likely to unfold in days to come.

First published in the Northeast News, Guwahati, India, 22 November 2023

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter: @saleemsamad

Opposition in Bangladesh failing to unseat Sheikh Hasina

SALEEM SAMAD

Many keen political observers believe that the principal opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has come to a dead end on the road. Their strategy has been violent to demand that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina should step down and an interim government to hold a free, fair and inclusive national election.

BNP has announced to boycott the upcoming national election in January 2024. The party and its alliance have called for a countrywide general strike (hartal) and blockade (oborod).

The blockade was announced in protest of breaking up the BNP’s 28 October rally allegedly by police in conjunction with the ‘golden boys’ of the governing Awami League.

Political historian Mohiuddin Ahmad said the opposition always envisages winning the election. If they access that they will not win, or even win a reasonable number of seats in the parliament, then they threaten to boycott the elections.

Demanding Hasina to quit power and form an interim government to oversee the elections is not happening. The rewritten constitutional provisions have deleted the sections for holding elections under a caretaker government, said Ahmad.

Winter in Bangladesh comes as a blessing when flowers bloom across the gardens and parks in the country. The village women prepare traditional pita (traditional cake made from fresh rice harvest). Some schools are done with their final exam. While others plan vacations during the winter.

The vibrant tourist industry is now challenged with negative business. This awkward situation has been caused by opposition actions and the governing party along with its alliance joining the election fest. In fear of political actions, the customers cancelled their vacation plans.

Ahmad said it is understood what the BNP wants. But the party leaders before they were arrested and sent to prison had not spelled out what they wanted to do after they won the election.

They have not promised that they will abrogate all draconian laws which hinder democracy. They did not say they would ensure accountability and transparency and zero-tolerance for corruption and human rights abuse of law enforcement agencies. They did not say that the judiciary would become independent with no political influence and not harass and intimidate opposition, critics, and dissidents.

The opposition party has not spoken a word about freedom of expression, freedom of speech, freedom of assembly and freedom of the press.

Arson, agitation and protest rallies will not change the policy of the government. After boycotting the election they have nowhere to go but sink in a black hole.

There are reasons BNP is aggressive, arrogant and refuses to dialogue with the government parties. Thus arrogance of the BNP has led the party to the end of the road.

Nonetheless, BNP for long is leaderless or rudderless and floating without any compass. The present party leaders are powerless and do not have the guts to manage the party autonomously. It’s no longer news that BNP is managed by a remote controller – sitting in London by a self-exiled leader.

The party chairperson Khaleda Zia is serving jail terms and is restricted in her house. She is barred from politics and unable to contest any elections. The ailing leader with medical complications often shuttles between her home and the hospital.

The party’s de facto leader Tarique Rahman (56), is Senior Vice-Chairman of BNP. A spoiled brat of the military dictator General Ziaur Rahman (1977-1981) and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia.

The 93-year-old former President Prof Badruddoza Chowdhury once blamed Tarique arbitrarily established a political “powerhouse outside the Prime Minister’s Office” when her mother Khaleda was the Prime Minister (2001-2006).

Tarique never attended any BNP’s central committee or high command’s meetings, but he dictated his decisions. Several ministers and secretaries of various ministries sought his decision and approval of government projects from the popularly known place in upscale Banani, the ‘Hawa Bhaban’, the office of the delinquent.

His schoolmates said he was a flop in the class exam. A below-average student in BAF Shaheen School and College in Dhaka was a timid person and not vocal. He was kicked out of the school for failing an annual exam. Later he was a dropout from studies. The high school certificate and college degree were obtained fraudulently.

Khaleda Zia never expressed embarrassment that her son established a parallel government. She never stopped him from messing with government administration.

Instead, she indulged his son to run an unauthorised powerhouse and also rein the party. Corruption during Khaleda Zia’s regime was not spatial but horizontal – the ‘prince’ did it all.

Discontentment among the senior party leaders and ministers began to surface, which the Prime Minister tried to pacify.

He hated the senior BNP leaders including those Ministers who were inducted into the newly born party by his assassinated father Ziaur Rahman.

He advocates that the country should be governed by new generation (XGen) politicians and not left with the ‘old haggards’.

In the October 2001 election, understanding that the BNP may not be elected to power, he cleverly forged an alliance with the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami, which surprised many BNP leaders.

In fact, several senior BNP leaders and ministers were 1971 liberation war veterans and also those from the leftists and communists who joined the nationalist party during the tenure of Zia were uncomfortable with the presence of JeI.

The Islamist party opposed the independence of Bangladesh and collaborated with marauding Pakistan troops. The youths of JeI were recruited to form the death squad, Al Badr.

The death squad, a secret outfit abducted hundreds of intellectuals, tortured them in secret locations and later killed them, which was the saddest episode of the liberation war history.

The Pakistan military committed genocide of 3 million, targeting the Hindus, but Muslims who belonged to the Awami League and people sympathetic to independent Bangladesh were also slaughtered and buried in hundreds of mass graves all over the country.

The occupation forces deliberately used rape as a weapon of war to create a new generation of “saccha (genuine) Pakistanis”.

The crackdown created 10 million war refugees of Hindus and Muslims alike. The war refugees were forced to take shelter in neighbouring states of India. The war has also caused internal displacement of 25 million in search of safe refuge.

The refugees were sheltered in India until Bangladesh was liberated in December 1971. Millions of refugees trekked home to their homesteads only to find their villages were parched, houses looted and torched by local militia.

The JeI leader of the eastern province of Pakistan, Ghulam Azam, fled to Pakistan in 1971 living behind his compatriots and Islamic militia to fight alongside the Islamic army.

Later JeI party was banned. Imbued in the 1974 constitution and declared that any party with a religious objective will not be registered as a political party.

Civil society challenged the self-styled professor Ghulam Azam as the Ameer of Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh in 1991, arguing that he was a citizen of Pakistan and should be deported. He, however, held the position until 2000.

Azam hated the independence of Bangladesh and believed the territory (Bangladesh) would be under the hegemony of India. Azam was convicted of crimes against humanity in July 2013.

In a development on November 19, the apex court upheld the scrapping of Jamaat-e-Islami’s registration as a political party, barring the party from contesting any polls. The Appellate Division of Supreme Court upholds a verdict from the High Court that prevents the party from running for elected office, writes the private news portal bdnews24.com.

This means that JeI is left with no scope to contest the upcoming elections scheduled in early January.

It could not be ascertained whether JeI has any alternative plan to participate in the national election.

A senior journalist who is familiar with the JeI policy said that the party leaders of Majlis-e-Shura, the highest policy-making body of the JeI will meet soon, to discuss the future of the party and relay the decision to the members.

With Jei put out of circulation, the wings of the BNP have been clipped from forming an electoral alliance or having a strong ally in the anti-government movement.

First published in the Northeast News, 19 November 2023

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter: @saleemsamad

Will the Islamists pose a challenge to the Awami League in Bangladesh?

SALEEM SAMAD

The wind of election fever is sweeping Bangladesh as the national election is coming closer. The Islamist parties, including the lesser-known Islamists are gearing up for the elections expected in early January 2024.

The Islamist parties are formally and informally holding parleys to form an electorate alliance. The question arises, whether the alliance will be a challenge for the incumbent Awami League or the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

After a long time, Bangladesh’s capital Dhaka witnessed a largely attended crowd at a rally organised by Islami Andolon (Movement) Bangladesh on Friday (November 3), a weekly holiday for the noon Jumma prayer.

The rally was held at Shurwardy Uddyan, where 96,000 Pakistan military signed a historic surrender and a surrender ceremony was held on December 16, 1971.

It is the same placed where Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman made a historic speech on March 7, 1971, which inspired the people to rise against the Pakistan military junta, leading to an independent Bangladesh.

The vast green expanse was the country’s only race course, a legacy of the British Raj, is presently a site in remembrance of the liberation war, and the sacrifices of the martyrs.

The Islami Andolon has asked the governing Awami League to relinquish power within seven days.

What has amazed many political observers is that the Islamist party has expressed solidarity with the ongoing BNP anti-government movement for a caretaker government and asked Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to step down.

The founder of Islami Andolon, Syed Mohammad Rezaul Karim said if the government fails to comply with the demands to quit by November 10, they will discuss with members of the opposition alliance and announce the next course of the movement.

The demands include a national government with members from the parties in the anti-government campaign and urged the President of the country to take measures to avoid further escalation of the violence unleashed during the series of countrywide shutdowns and blockades of road, train and river communication.

They also asked to release all BNP leaders arrested during the wake of the movement in a week.

The Islamist leader Karim warned that the people will not accept sham elections held in 2014 and 2018.

The Islamic preacher spelt out an ultimatum and threatened to launch a tougher movement with all the political parties to hold an election under a national government if their demand is not met by the date.

He warned that they will not be allowed to hold sham elections held in 2014 and 2018 polls. “The government is referring to the constitution saying that it is not possible to go beyond it. Who made the constitution? Awami League? This constitution is also illegal like the Awami League–led government,” he remarked.

He told a cheering crowd of tens of thousands that they would fight in collaboration with all political groups and get Sheikh Hasina off the throne.

On the other hand, the governing Awami League and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) are vigorously working backstage to get Islami Andolon as an electoral ally. Obviously, it will energise the enthusiasm of the impressive vote bank ahead of the upcoming general elections in early January 2024.

Surely, Karim, popularly known as “Charmonair Pir” has become a factor in politics. And it led the two major parties to make one request to Islami Andolon to join their electoral coalition, instead of going alone.

Notwithstanding, starting their political career from Barishal in March 1987, the party emerged as the fourth most popular political party in the last general election, writes The Daily Star.

The Islamist party categorically told the BNP delegation last February that they have strong reservations about the caretaker system as has been marked by bitter experience which ushered in the infamous 1/11 military-backed caretaker government.

Instead, they proposed a national government comprising members from major political parties to hold the national elections, which did not catch the winds from BNP leadership visiting Islami Andolon headquarters in Barishal.

The governing party is actively engaged in expanding the political base of an electoral alliance with leftist and Islamist parties too.

A government party delegation held parleys with Islami Andolon and proposed to its fold to defeat the opposition BNP.

The ruling party explained to Islamist leaders that joining the alliance would broaden their hope of winning in several constituencies with a vote bank of like-minded parties in the pro-government alliance if BNP decides to participate in the election.

Several Awami League leaders, however, denied holding dialogue or have proposed the Islamist party to join the broad electoral alliance.

The Islamic Andolon contested 299 seats out of 300 constituencies in the national polls held in 2018. Well, the highest by a single party, whereas the Awami League contested in 262 seats, the BNP in 258 and the Jatiya Party in 45 seats.

The Islamic Andolon individually participated in national elections for the first time in 2008. In the last 2018 election, the Islamist party contested 299 seats and got 12.55 lakh votes, which was 1.52 per cent of the vote, according to The Daily Star.

Bangladesh Election Commission has delisted the registration of the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and has no locus standi in the electioneering. However, 22 candidates of JeI have contested the 2018 election with the BNP election symbol ‘sheaf of paddy’. All the JeI candidates lost the election.

Since the BNP announced agitations on 28 October, the JeI has also announced a similar agitation programme.

The Qawmi Madrasa–based non-political Islamist organisation, Hefajat-e-Islam are in catch-22 whether to support the government party and release central leaders languishing in prison or challenge Awami League in the upcoming elections.

Several central leaders of Hefajat-e-Islam, are also leaders of smaller Islamist parties and will certainly surface during the electioneering.

On the sideline, lesser-known Islamist parties are gearing up to participate in the elections and plan to merge as a “third force”.

An alliance of Islamist parties has launched the Liberal Islamic Alliance comprising six Islamic and like-minded political parties formed on  1 September.

The six Islamic parties, newly registered with the Election Commission, are Bangladesh Supreme Party led by Syed Saifuddin Ahmed Maizbhandari, Bangladesh Islami Oikya Jote led by Misbahur Rahman Chowdhury, Krishak Sramik Party led by Farhanaz Haque, Aashiqeen-e-Awlia Oikya Parishad led by Alam Noori Sureshwari, Bangladesh Janodal and National Awami Party (NAP Bhashani).

The Supreme Party Chairman Syed Saifuddin Ahmed Maizbhandari said that preparations are afoot to contest in all 300 constituencies, indeed a challenge to other Islamist parties and alliances.

Some of the Islamist parties have reportedly said, that they will decide to participate or boycott after the election date is formally announced by the election commission.

Presently, 44 political parties, including 14 Islamist parties, are registered with the Election Commission, which is obligatory for participation in national and local government elections.

What will happen, if BNP suddenly decides to join the election at the eleventh hour? The Islamist parties will surely join the grand alliance of the government with an impressive vote bank, concludes Partha Pratim Bhattacharjee, political reporter with The Daily Star.

First published in the Northeast News, 4 November 2023

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter: @saleemsamad

Decoding Bangladesh political violence in the West

SALEEM SAMAD

As predicted, Bangladesh plunged into a political abyss after the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and governing Awami League simultaneously held rallies choking busy streets in the heart of the capital Dhaka on October 28, which has been marred in violence and street anarchy.

The opposition has demanded that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina should step down and the national elections should be held under an interim government to ensure free, fair, credible and inclusive polls planned in January 2024.

Hasina, the daughter of Bangladesh’s independence hero Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, has been the longest serving women prime minister in the world. She has been in power since 2009 and has been accused of targeting political opponents, dissidents, critics and journalists, which she categorically denies.

Moreover, blaming the opposition BNP for anarchism, the pro-establishment news organisations, apologetic Awami League leadership, the government, and law enforcement failed to foresee an impending political violence, which would usher in a political crisis that was approaching like a cyclonic storm.

As hundreds of opposition senior leaders and members were detained and accused of rioting, death of policemen and damaging properties including buses, the United States ambassador to Bangladesh, Peter Haas, hoped that all sides would engage in a “dialogue” without preconditions to de-escalate tensions and find a path forward to free, fair and peaceful elections.

In response to the United States’ call for dialogue, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina responding to journalists, rejected holding any dialogue with the opposition and said, “How can we meet and have dialogue with murderers.”

Hinting the government has taken a hard line with the opposition, she said “The BNP is a ‘terrorist organisation’ and they will be taught the lesson they need to be taught.”

In response to a question at the press conference on November 31, on how to deal with the violence, she said she would “burn the hands of those who start the fire.”

Amid a crackdown on opposition politicians and deadly protests, Bangladesh’s main opposition party BNP, whose top leadership is either jailed or in exile, is betting that if Hasina does not resign and allow in a caretaker government, boycotting the January election will de-legitimise any win for her and possibly invite international sanctions, the spokesperson said. BNP boycotted the 2014 election too but participated in 2018, reports Reuters.

What is damaging for the government’s credibility is that the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) suspected ruling party supporters were also involved in the violence that gripped Dhaka city on October 28 during rallies by major political parties.

“We urge the Government to observe the greatest restraint to curb political tensions at this critical time, and to take steps to ensure that human rights are fully upheld, for all Bangladeshis, before, during and after the elections,” said OHCHR.

On the other hand, the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres calls on all parties to refrain from violence or any excessive use of force or arbitrary detention. He also stresses the need to respect the right to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly.

The New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW), in a strongly worded statement on November 1 quoted witnesses to accuse the Bangladesh police of unnecessary use of (excessive) force during political protests on October 28.

The watchdog did not hesitate to say the violence was committed on all sides, the events were part of a continuing police crackdown on the political opposition.

HRW claims at least 1,500 opposition members were arrested in the days leading up to the rally and BNP leaders said that the authorities raided party members’ homes. Nearly a dozen opposition members were shot and killed by police in the last four days.

According to the opposition, nearly 5,000 party leaders and activists have been arrested since similar protests took place in July, while tens of thousands have been accused in hundreds of additional cases.

The US rights watchdog appeals that all allegations of torture and other abuse of detainees should be thoroughly and independently investigated, and those responsible should be held to account.

Whereas, according to Mohammad A. Arafat, an academic turned politician in a post on Twitter (now X), the General Secretary of Awami League has been saying for more than a month that we are ready for dialogue without any pre-condition but BNP responded negatively. Now that Mr. [Peter] Haas proposed a dialogue without any condition, let’s see whether BNP listens to their “trusted friend”.

Is the idea of ‘No-Pre-Conditioned’ dialogue being floated because of the failed attempt on October 28? Who from BNP is going to be available for dialogue, I wonder! Or, this offer of dialogue is to get some kind of amnesty for the perpetrators, he asked.

In September, the European Union notified the Bangladesh government that it would not send a full election observer mission to the polls in January, stating that the decision “reflects the fact that at the present time, it is not sufficiently clear whether the necessary conditions will be met.”

The European Parliament also raised the alarm about growing abuses in Bangladesh, putting into question its eligibility for EU trade benefits under the “Everything But Arms” programme. Mass arrests targeting the opposition further undermine the conditions for a fair election.

The United States pre-election assessment mission has called upon political parties as well as other stakeholders in Bangladesh to initiate a substantive dialogue on key election issues, intending to ensure a credible, inclusive, and violence-free election.

The assessment team, which comprises representatives of the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI), made the call through a publication from Washington on Saturday.

The United States has said it will “impose visa restrictions on Bangladeshi individuals responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh.”

The OHCHR and Human Rights Watch statements were not only damaging but have severely embarrassed the government.

On 28 October, the Dhaka Metropolitan Police headquarters denied Jamaat-e-Islami’s (JeI’s) permission to hold a rally on the same day in the downtown Motijheel, a hub of all nationalised banks, insurance and trade bodies head offices.

Surprisingly police did not disperse the Islamist party rally held at Arambagh, near the downtown.

Salauddin Babar, acting editor of Dainik Naya Diganta, an Islamist newspaper explained why police did not want to disperse or block the JeI’s rally and said the government possibly did not want to open a second front battling two political parties in the streets.

Babar having closed ties with JeI leadership denied any deal with the government and remarked it was wise of the government to avoid battling JeI, which would have provoked other Islamists to join the street protest.

Jamaat-e-Islami for a long hiatus has lent political support for the nationwide hartal (shutdown) on the following day of police crackdown and four-day blockade of roads, train and river communications for October 30-31 and November 1-2 called by BNP and its alliance.

Interestingly, JeI has not been invited by the BNP to join the alliance for their movement asking Hasina to quit and hold elections under an interim government.

On the fifth day (Wednesday), at least 11 people, including two police officers, were killed, and hundreds injured including 30 journalists were heckled and harassed by riot police and attacked by opposition and governing party hooligans during the October 28 and ongoing violence that has followed.

Nevertheless, the police, opposition and Awami League denied their involvement in attacking journalists and damaging or seizure of mobile phones, cameras and video equipment.

Meanwhile, Australia, Canada, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States in a joint statement on the recent political violence have called for restraint.

A joint statement issued by the diplomatic missions of these countries in Bangladesh said, “We call on all stakeholders to exercise restraint, eschew violence and work together to create the conditions for free, fair, participatory, and peaceful elections.”

The Bangladesh government is ignoring international calls for restraint and its pledges to hold a peaceful, free, and fair election. National elections are planned for January 2024, stated HRW.

Human Rights Watch has called upon Bangladesh’s international partners to insist that elections cannot be considered fair when the opposition is targeted, harassed, and behind bars.

POSTSCRIPT: In the last few days, Bangladesh police clashed with thousands of garment workers demanding fair wages for the clothing they make for major Western brands. Police said tens of thousands of workers in the country’s largest industrial city, firing tear gas and rubber bullets as agitating workers smashed up factories and blocked roads. The protests left at least two people dead.

First published in the Northeast News, 2 November 2023

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter: @saleemsamad

Bangladesh likely to plunge into political violence

SALEEM SAMAD

The two rival political parties, the governing Awami League and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) are on a head-on collision course on 28 October.

In a major showdown of the BNP in mobilisation of supporters, members and sympathisers, the Awami League leaders and senior ministers are threatening that they will block roads and intersections in the capital Dhaka on 28 October and mobilise thousands of supporters.

Party general secretary Obaidul Quader and Minister for Roads and Highways warned the BNP that they would face a similar outcome in 10 December, last year.

After protracted negotiations, the BNP got permission for its last year’s December 10 rally at the fringe of the capital – a ground which was not its first choice of BNP.

The permission came at the cost of a life, injuries to around 100 people, and the arrest of dozens of party stalwarts.

Meanwhile, the Dhaka Metropolitan Police’s commissioner, Habibur Rahman warned of tough actions if the BNP caused harm to the lives and properties of 2.24 crore (nearly 22 million) residents of the metropolitan city while holding the political programme.

However, BNP’s general secretary Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir explained that their “loyalists won’t ‘occupy streets’ during the Dhaka rally” and has no plans to stage any sit-in protests during the party’s ‘mass rally’ in Dhaka. The party has taken adequate steps to ensure that the gathering ends peacefully, he added.

The threats against BNP were also made by Information and Broadcasting Minister Dr Hasan Mahmud, a family member of the Sunni cleric Shah Ahmed Shafi founder of the Islamist organisation Hefazat-e-Islam (Protector of Islam) that the governing Awami League members, supporters and henchmen will dominate the streets of Dhaka.

Literally, Dhaka will come to a standstill by warring parties, marching in the streets with bamboo sticks and batons to confront, one to obstruct holding the rally and another push through the Awami League and ‘golden boys’ barricades at all major intersections.

The ruling party would supplement the thousands of riot police and elite anti-crime police RAB, police detectives and security agencies mobilised to enforce the “law and order” situation.

Fearing police and ‘golden boys’ harassment, BNP leadership has called on their members and disciples to reach Dhaka two days early.

The government in the past on several occasions during BNP’s rallies blocked public transport, like buses, trains and ferryboats (launch) services. Several hotels and informal accommodations were raided and hundreds were arrested accused of sabotage and conspiring against the government. In most cases, the hotel owners are asked to vacate the rooms of their customers and close for 24 to 48 hours in the name of security issues posed by the opposition’s gathering.

BNP, the country’s largest opposition group demands that the next parliamentary polls, expected in early January, be overseen by a caretaker government to ensure a free and fair election, writes the Daily Star.

The party boycotted the election in 2014 and alleged vote rigging and intimidation during the 2018 polls, which were held under an Awami League government.

Of course, Awami League repeated its refusal to step down before the election, arguing that such an ‘unelected [caretaker] government’ would be unconstitutional, and would create a crisis from a political vacuum which would hinder the country’s politics and development.

Awami League launched a violent anti-government street protest demanding a caretaker government, which led to elections under a neutral government in 1996.

Sheikh Hasina, the current leader of the Awami League founded by her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, an independence hero scraped the elections under a caretaker government when she swung to power in 2009 after the system was challenged in the higher court and declared unconstitutional.

Meanwhile, the Brussels-based International Crisis Group fears countrywide violence and conflicts in Bangladesh from October 2023 to March 2024. The assessment was recently published in the global conflict tracker, CrisisWatch, and qualitative assessments provided by Crisis Group’s analysts based in conflict areas.

The assessment identified several parameters of conflicts during the six months and said a potentially high-stakes violent election in January 2024 is a prime reason for hostilities. Violence could surge in the lead-up to or after voting in January, as envisaged by the European think tank.

The ruling Awami League is expected to ignore calls for it to step down and hand power to a neutral regime that would ensure holding a free, fair, inclusive and credible election, and instead continue crackdown on opposition BNP members, says the report.

Not very unfamiliar with political protests in the country, the rival supporters could clash in street battles or attack party offices or candidates, especially rebel candidates.

Amid the political tensions, the Islamist groups will also bake extra bread when the oven is still warm. The Islamists become more active in opposing the government, the report said.

The potential consequences would be a rigged or disputed election could trigger fierce anti-government protests. Facing the prospect of a rigged poll, the opposition will probably boycott the election and could become radicalised, adopting more violent tactics.

In the worst-case scenario, the military might intervene should the election’s aftermath become chaotic, says the Crisis Group report.

The International Crisis Group understands that conflicts, violence and political reprisals could also cause the government to increase its dependence on India and China, as the United States and its potential Western countries would probably respond with sanctions, such as collective visa bans on top officials by the West, especially the United States.

First published in the Northeast News, 23 October 2023

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter: @saleemsamad