Sheikh Hasina’s Political Career at a Cross Road

SALEEM SAMAD

In the wake of the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) verdict for the death penalty for Sheikh Hasina, will her political career come to an end on the road? It would be difficult for her to return to Bangladesh with a death penalty and lead the Awami League to survive in a rough sea.

Hasina’s father (Sheikh Mujibur Rahman) originally set up Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal to try cases of atrocities during the Liberation War. The ICT was supposed to put on trial 195 Pakistani military officers accused of war crimes in the 1971 bloody independence war.

Hasina revived the tribunal when she assumed power in 2009. The current regime has used it against her opponents, wrote Bhagyasree Sengupta in the FirstPost. Hasina did not show remorse for the crimes against humanity in killing 1,400 protesters during last year’s July-August bloody uprising.

Hasina refused to accept defeat. Her party members also refused—especially those who fled to India. She must be having sleepless nights and worrisome days. The woman who ruled Bangladesh for nearly 20 years with an iron hand did not express her remorse for misrule.

For the past 15 months, even while staying in India, Hasina has been spewing venom about the July–August uprising and, in a way, attempting to call for the overthrow of this government.

In the past, she lived in exile in Delhi. For her, it was not a new city when she lived a low-profile life for six years until 1981, forming close relationships with leaders like Indira Gandhi and Pranab Mukherjee. During her tenure as Prime Minister, she gradually tilted towards India for security, intelligence sharing, trade, bilateral relations, and other crucial issues.

Hasina became an all-weather friend of India. Delhi reciprocated unflinching support to Dhaka in the regional forum and international forum. She listened to Delhi and destroyed the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The platform for regional understanding and cooperation collapsed after Islamabad announced that host the SAARC Summit.

Indian Prime Minister boycotted the event, and promptly, Hasina also cancelled her visit to Pakistan. Islamabad has postponed the summit. Since the boycott of the SAARC Summit in 2016, Bangladesh-Pakistan bilateral relations have plummeted. At one stage, Hasina decided to snap diplomatic relations. She called back senior diplomats, including the High Commissioner to Dhaka and kept them idle. She refused to give clearance to the new Pakistan High Commissioner to Bangladesh for several years.

The news of ice-breaking was first known through Pakistan’s news media that a new High Commissioner has arrived and met Sheikh Hasina at the Prime Minister’s Office. It was not clear what changed the mindset of Hasina to meet the High Commissioner. Whether there was external influence or other compulsion. Dhaka also sent High Commissioners to Islamabad, which eased the diplomatic relations.

The country twice declared two diplomats of Pakistan persona non grata. Islamabad reciprocated by deporting one Bangladeshi diplomat. It could not be determined whether the diplomats sent back home were on the basis of tit-for-tat.

Meanwhile, trade and commerce continued at a slow pace. Both countries depended on each other’s products. Bangladesh is dependent on several products, as raw materials, to feed the export-oriented industries. What will happen to her party is difficult to predict.

However, several political observers say the days will become thinner for Hasina. The extravagant pomp and glory that she enjoyed will be no more, no doubt, said a political analyst, Mohiuddin Ahmad, political historian and writer.

Well, Hasina will not be extradited by India, where she is living in a safe home, somewhere in New Delhi, presumed to be an armed force establishment. Dhaka has once again sent a note verbale in reference to the verdict of the death penalty, and the ICT has declared her a fugitive.

India, as usual, is dead silent over the issue of extradition. The Ministry of External Affairs has issued a brief statement acknowledging the ICT verdict and carefully did not mention the Delhi plan about Hasina’s status. The silence gave a clear message that Delhi will not hand over its loyal friend, Hasina and will not speak a word about her status.

There will be no resolution to these questions while this current government remains in power. The government has made it clear that the Awami League will not be allowed to contest the election during this term. What happens next will depend entirely on the government that comes afterwards—our future course and the structure of our politics will be shaped by that, wrote once a fiery student leader, Mahmudur Rahman Manna, in the largest circulated Bangla daily Prothom Alo.

Returning Hasina and her co-accused to Home Minister Asaduzzaman Kamal is dark. She and he co-accused, will live in Indian as guest. No Indian government will send her back when her life is in danger.

Delhi may reject the ICT and deny its legitimate existence and trial in a tribunal which was exclusively set up by Hasina for the trial of war criminals and crimes against humanity committed during the 1971 war.

The Indian statement, soon after the verdict of Hasina’s death penalty it has put the International Crimes Tribunal in question. Which means Delhi does not recognize the tribunal.

Indian could use the exception clause in the 2013 Bangladesh-India Extradition Treaty. There are certain clauses which could give leverage to India, refusing to hand over Hasina and others, said Suhasini Haidar with The Hindu.

To keep the diplomatic channels open to discuss Bangladesh’s concerns, convey India’s concern and possibly push Bangladesh for an inclusive election to allow Hasina’s party, Awami League, to participate in the upcoming February election, said Haider.

Presently, the government has imposed restrictions on party activities, and the Election Commission has deleted the boat symbol from the list of election symbols.

The death sentence awarded to Sheikh Hasina, former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, is a seismic political event that will be seared into the nation’s collective memory for a long time. Its tremors will be felt through the country’s institutions even if the death sentence is never executed.

Ironically, Hasina has now fallen victim to the system she created by weaponizing the judiciary against her political opponent, Bharat Bhushan writes.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Pakistan, on 27 November 2025

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist based in Bangladesh and a media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders. He is the recipient of the Ashoka Fellowship and the Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at: saleem.samad.1971@gmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Defiant Sheikh Hasina refuses to apologize for her crimes

SALEEM SAMAD

Ousted Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina refused to apologize for the bloody crackdown on street protests that led to her downfall last year, and tells international media outlets that she has no intention to leave India.

Last week, Sheikh Hasina from her safe house – somewhere in Delhi, India gave written interviews to Reuters, The Independent, and French news agency AFP.

The interviews via email with international outlets were her first media engagements since her autocratic regime collapsed during the Monsoon Revolution. She spoke her mind, planned on her exile, her political party, Awami League, the upcoming election sans Awami League, and, of course, critiquing the Interim Government, describing it as an “illegal” government. She blamed the Yunus government was “sowing the seeds” of further division in her country.

The three international media which were published on the same day – the 78-year-old former leader remained defiant in her exile, rejecting charges of crimes against humanity and describing her ongoing trial as “politically motivated.” Despite her failure to hold free, fair, and inclusive elections in three consecutive sham polls during her 15-year rule, she has now demanded that the Interim Government should hold an inclusive election.

“Elections without the direct participation of all major parties, including the Awami League, cannot be credible,” she said. It should be pointed out that Hasina has been accused of disenfranchising millions of voters through holding elections in 2014, 2018, and 2024 without the participation of opposition parties.

The same opposition, Hasina once castigated, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is seen as the frontrunner, while Jamaat-e-Islami, the Sunni Muslim-majority country’s largest Islamist party, is rising in popularity during post Hasina.

The Election Commission suspended the Awami League’s registration in May. Earlier, the government banned all party activities, citing national security threats and crimes against humanity probe into senior Awami League leaders.

She warned that the ban on her Awami League by the interim government of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was deepening a political crisis in the country of 170 million people, ahead of elections slated for February 2026. Millions of supporters of Bangladesh’s Awami League will boycott next year’s national election, Hasina told Reuters from her exile in India.

Hasina, 78, said she would not return to Bangladesh under any government formed after elections that exclude her party, and plans to remain in India to live “quietly and freely”, where she fled in August 2024 following a deadly student-led uprising. She added that she had “no intention of seeking asylum beyond India (in a third country).”

“The ban on the Awami League is not only unjust, it is self-defeating,” Hasina said in emailed responses to Reuters — her first media engagement since her dramatic fall from power after being elected to power for the fifth tenure.

“The next government must have electoral legitimacy,” Hasina told Reuters. “Millions of people support the Awami League cannot disenfranchise millions of people.” Political analyst Mohiuddin Ahmad said that Hasina shouldn’t expect from an “illegal” government. She has no alternative but to remain calm and enjoy the hospitality of Delhi.

Hasina is in exile in New Delhi for the second time. Earlier, she stayed for six years, from 1975 to 1981. Later, she returned to Bangladesh as president of Awami League, and in 1996, she was elected Prime Minister for the first time. The 78-year-old former leader remained defiant, rejecting charges of crimes against humanity and describing her ongoing trial as “politically motivated.”

The Prosecutors of the International Crimes Tribunal, a Bangladesh war-crimes court, are seeking the death penalty for Hasina, accusing her of crimes against humanity by ordering the use of lethal force against student protesters, resulting in up to 1,400 deaths.

In her AFP interview, Hasina rejected the accusations of crimes against humanity, insisting they were “not supported by any evidence” and that the tribunal was appointed by an administration that included her political opponents.

Hasina contested the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) death toll claim during the July Uprising in 2024, saying that “the 1,400 figure is useful to the ICT for propaganda purposes but is probably inflated”.

Prosecutors have sought the death penalty for Hasina, accusing her of ordering lethal force against protesters in July and August 2024, when as many as 1,400 people were killed and thousands were injured, according to what the United Nations described. Hasina is defended in ICT by a state-appointed lawyer, but said she would only recognize an “impartial” process, such as one at the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Hasina, meanwhile, has defied court orders to return to attend her trial on whether she bears command responsibility for the deadly crackdown, charges amounting to crimes against humanity under Bangladeshi law. A verdict is due on 13 November. In response to AFP, Hasina also condemned her crimes against humanity trial as a “jurisprudential joke”, adding she believed a guilty verdict was “preordained”. Her critics, including interim officials and human rights lawyers, say she bears “command responsibility” for the use of lethal force. Chief prosecutor Tajul Islam described her as “the nucleus around whom all the crimes were committed,” urging the court to impose the death penalty if found guilty.

Bangladesh’s premier English newspaper, the Daily Star’s own investigations found that Hasina had personally authorized the use of lethal weapons. The newspaper had published a leaked phone recording from 18 July 2024 where Hasina tells her nephew, former Dhaka South Mayor Fazle Noor Taposh, “I have given instructions, now I have given direct instructions; now they will use lethal weapons. Wherever they find them [protesters], they will shoot directly.” “The charge that I personally directed security forces to open fire on crowds is bogus,” Hasina told AFP, while conceding that “some mistakes were certainly made within the chain of command.” “They’ve been brought by kangaroo courts, with guilty verdicts a foregone conclusion,” she told Reuters, adding that she would “neither be surprised nor intimidated” if she were sentenced to death.

She told the Independent that she “mourns each and every child, sibling, cousin, and friend we lost as a nation,” but refused to issue a formal apology, arguing that the unrest was manipulated by her political rivals to topple her government. “I mourn the lives we lost, but I reject the false allegation that I ordered police to shoot demonstrators,” she said.

Rights groups, including the Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, long accused her government of a litany of abuses, including the murder of rivals, suppression of opposition parties, rigged courts, and one-sided elections.

In response to AFP, Hasina said her priority now was “the welfare and stability of Bangladesh,” while her party explores legal and diplomatic avenues to contest its exclusion from the political process.” 

Yunus must reinstate the Awami League to give Bangladeshis the choice they deserve.” 

To conclude, Awami League’s return to power, in any foreseeable future, remains a political impossibility, Abu Jakir wrote in a news portal, Bangla Outlook.

This article was published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, on 2 November 2025

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist based in Bangladesh and a media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders. He is the recipient of the Ashoka Fellowship and the Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at: saleem.samad.1971@gmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

https://stratheia.com/defiant-sheikh-hasina-refuses-to-apologize-for-her-crimes/

Bangladesh Politicalscape Division Deepens Over Democratization Roadmap

SALEEM SAMAD

The majority of people in Bangladesh are in the dark and groping in the wild to understand what the much-talked-about “July National Charter” is about, a political roadmap for democratic transition, at the behest of the Interim Government.

A genuine national consensus on the path to democratic renewal has fallen short of expectations. Uncertainty surrounding its implementation has left several political parties hesitant to sign, despite an eleventh-hour intervention by Chief Adviser Nobel laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus.

Many parties have shown themselves to be unable to bridge their differences over the nation’s future direction. Since the circulation of the final draft, some have questioned whether the exercise produced any meaningful consensus, wrote Kamal Ahmed, a columnist and former Chairperson of Media Reforms Commission of the Interim Government.

Last Friday, millions with access to national media, including television, newspapers, news portals, and social media, who are supposed to make informed decisions, plunged into a state of confusion over the new political roadmap.

Hasnat Quaiyum, president of the left-leaning Bangladesh Rastro Songskar Andolon, described the draft as “weaker” than the accord reached among the three alliances during the 1990s student uprising against former military ruler General HM Ershad.

However, the two major political parties Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Awami League, in a see-saw to power several times, never bothered to bring about legislation in the parliament to implement the reforms agreed to in the joint declaration post-1990.

The Charter was named after the July-August Monsoon Revolution, which ousted autocratic Sheikh Hasina after 15 years of rule. A year ago, the street protests killed nearly 1400 young people in 36 days of Monsoon Revolution.

With the July Charter finally taking shape, Mohiuddin Alamgir of the Daily Star looks into the changes in the constitution, legislative structure, balance of power, and caretaker government system, as well as the new laws needed to reshape governance.

The Charter, born out of a compact among political parties, proposes a raft of constitutional reforms to reinvigorate Bangladesh’s parliament, which has remained weak and failed to function as an effective check on executive authority.

The proposals include the introduction of a bicameral legislature, a stronger opposition bench, institutional oversight, and checks and balances at the heart of parliamentary democracy.

Very few topics in Bangladesh’s political discourse have sparked as much debate or endured as long as the caretaker government system. To many, it represents not just a procedural framework but also a reliable means of conducting free and fair elections.

Introduced in 1991 through a rare political consensus, the caretaker system was widely accepted as a safeguard to ensure neutral elections, free from the influence of ruling parties. It was incorporated into the constitution in 1996.

Its unilateral abolition by the Awami League government in 2011 triggered a decade-long bitter dispute over an acceptable mechanism for holding credible elections.

The issue has emerged again with renewed urgency, as the July charter calls for the restoration of the system.

Restoring the caretaker system with more safeguards in the charter has been stressed. Presently, the Supreme Court is hearing the abrogation of the caretaker government system.

Once the apex court renders a verdict on the cancellation of the system, Bangladesh will switch to the caretaker system mode. The Interim Government will cease to function 90 days before the election and hand over power to the Caretaker Government.

Reforms ahead of the national election have been the most consistent pledge of the interim government. One of the core reforms, apart from reviving the caretaker government system, is to bring about a balance of power between the prime minister and the president.

For years, critics have warned that the immense constitutional powers vested in the prime minister risk fostering authoritarianism, with the post of president remaining largely ceremonial, devoid of substantive authority.

The July Charter proposes curbing the PM’s overarching powers and strengthening the role of the president.

“To prevent the emergence of a fascist regime in the future, there must be a balance of power,” said Prof Ali Riaz, vice president of the National Consensus Commission.

Political parties have long stressed the need for a mechanism to prevent the concentration of power in the hands of the head of the government.

“Nearly all institutions are subject to the prime minister’s unilateral control. The president is constitutionally bound to act on the advice of the prime minister. In effect, the president holds no independent authority,” remarked Riaz.

Presently, the post of president is ceremonial. Real executive authority lies with the PM, who is the most powerful political actor with control over the executive, strong influence over the legislature, and indirect dominance over other state organs, wrote Alamgir.

Following independence, Bangladesh adopted a parliamentary system of government. However, the country transitioned to a presidential form through the fourth amendment to the constitution in 1975.

The parliamentary system was reinstated in 1991, designating the prime minister as the executive head of the government and the president as the constitutional head of state. In reality, the president acts on the PM’s advice in almost all matters.

In an effort to curb the concentration of power in the Prime Minister’s Office, according to the charter, most political parties agreed that an individual may serve as PM for a maximum of 10 years. The PM will not be the leader of the ruling party in the parliament.

The charter proposes that a lawmaker would be barred from holding the office of PM and remaining party chief at the same time. However, BNP and several like-minded parties issued a note of dissent on the matter.

Not to the surprise of political analysts, the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islam always echoed the Interim Government’s election road map, without any question.

“The aim here is to create a degree of separation between the party and the government, thereby reducing the concentration of power in the hands of the prime minister,” Ali Riaz said.

“Plenty of theoretical ideas are there [in the charter], but what will happen in reality remains to be observed,” said Al Masud Hasanuzzaman, a former teacher of Jahangirnagar University.

Consensus Commission Vice President Ali Riaz said the overarching objective is to establish an accountable state and strengthen its institutions so that the country is not governed by the whims of any individual or group.

Kamal Ahmed, consultant editor of The Daily Star, concludes that the deeper divisions surfaced over contentious political questions. Disagreements persist over the powers of the proposed second chamber in parliament, eligibility criteria for its members, provisions for amending or suspending the constitution, appointments to key constitutional and regulatory bodies, the president’s impeachment process, nominating a deputy speaker from the opposition, and parliamentary ratification of international treaties.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 20 October 2025

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist based in Bangladesh and a media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders. He is the recipient of the Ashoka Fellowship and the Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at <saleem.samad.1971@gmail.com>; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

India is Blowing Hot and Cold with Bangladesh

SALEEM SAMAD

India has multiple reasons for disliking Bangladesh. In the aftermath of the event of the ouster of all-weather friend Sheikh Hasina from power in August 2024. If we look into previous regimes, Delhi developed heightened relations with Sheikh Mujibur Rahman (1972-1975) and her daughter, Sheikh Hasina (1976-2001 and 2009-2024).

Why? The Awami League party was literally “owned” by the Sheikh’s family was tilted to India when their government was in power. The people did not like it, and thousands of critics, dissidents, opposition, and also journalists were severely punished by both the autocratic regimes.

Not only the Awami League, but also the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jatiya Party. When the military junta of liberation war veteran General Ziaur Rahman (1977-1981) and the other by General Hussain Muhammad Ershad (1982-1990) floated their parties and recruited politicians mostly from the former defunct Muslim League and pro-Maoist parties. Interestingly, the South Block in Delhi had love and hate relations with both the Rahman and Ershad, but both regimes were suspicious and careful of the giant neighbor.

India reciprocated ‘not-so-warm’ diplomatic relations, but each other’s leaders were on reciprocal official state visits to Delhi and Dhaka. Presently, Delhi is not happy with the sudden change of regime in Dhaka. The 36-day Monsoon Revolution street protest by Gen Z forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to quit and flee. She sought political asylum in India.

India has not been able to accept the change in Bangladesh because it “did not like” what the students did during the uprising last year. “We have problems with India right now because they disliked what the students have done,” remarked Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus, Chief Adviser of the Interim Government.

He was speaking at an event organized by the Asia Society and the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York last week, which was moderated by Dr Kyung-wha Kang, president and CEO of the Asia Society. He said India’s hosting of Hasina has created all sorts of problems in the country and is responsible for the deaths of hundreds of young people, and is not helping bilateral ties between the neighbors.

The United Nations human rights body (OHCHR) claimed that nearly 1,400 people, including students, daily wage earners, vendors, public transport drivers, and children. “This issue creates a lot of tension between India and Bangladesh. Also, lots of fake news is disseminated from the other side [of the border]. This is a very bad thing,” Yunus lamented while attending the UN General Assembly in New York.

He flagged a piece of fake news claiming that the youth who brought about change in Bangladesh are Taliban. “They even said I’m a Taliban too. I don’t have a beard. I just left it at home,” he quipped. Yunus said SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) is supposed to be a bloc of very close family members, and the idea was born in Bangladesh.

“You can invest in Bangladesh. Bangladesh is going to invest in your territory. That’s the whole idea of SAARC,” he said. “All of us benefit from that… This is what we should be doing.” Yunus said SAARC’s idea was to bring all the countries in South Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) together so that young people can get in touch with each other.

The chief adviser said, “Our history allowed us to make that happen, but somehow it didn’t fit into the politics of someone’s country [not naming India], so it had to stop. We feel very sorry for that.” However, Yunus said Dhaka is willing to revitalize SAARC. “We want to make sure that we open it up and bring people [of South Asia] together. That is the only way to solve our issues.”

“I said, why don’t you look at neighbors, like Nepal, Bhutan, and also the seven northeast states of India. In the eastern part of Bangladesh, seven states don’t have any access to the ocean. These are landlocked regions,” he said, hinting at possible fields of economic cooperation. The Indian ‘Godi media’ are saber-rattling when Yunus mentioned that Bangladesh would give access to a new deep-seaport being built by the Japanese in the Bay of Bengal. So did the leaders of the radical Hindutva, ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), when Yunus spoke of giving access routes to landlocked northeast India states.

The Godi media and BJP stalwarts blamed Yunus for interfering in India and attempting to stir a separatist movement in the landlocked states, which will usher in China’s military presence in the conflict. He also mentioned Nepal and Bhutan. The countries welcomed the proposal, which will facilitate their exports through Bangladesh.

Earlier regional studies suggested that both Bangladesh and Northeast India need to scale up their multi-modal connectivity, which would not only help the region to raise its competitiveness but also narrow long-standing regional development gaps.

The port would immensely benefit economically and create jobs in Northeast Indian states, and Japan proposed a plan for road infrastructure for fast communication to the Bay of Bengal, and also developed backward linkage industries.

Japan has proposed developing an industrial hub in Bangladesh with supply chains to the landlocked northeast states of India, Nepal, and Bhutan beyond by developing a port and connectivity in the region, under the Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt (BIG-B) initiative.

The connectivity will bring synergy in trade facilitation and build express corridors for the transshipment and transit of goods from northeast India to the Bangladesh port in Chattogram.

The former Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) Vision, focused particularly on emerging economies and developing countries in the Indo-Pacific region and territories vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters.

It comes after Kishida visited India in March 2023, where he touted the idea of a new industrial hub for the Bay of Bengal and Northeast India that could bolster development in the impoverished region of 300 million people.

After Kishida visited India, Japan approved $1.27 billion to Bangladesh for three infrastructure projects – including an enormous commercial port in the Bay, which will be equivalent to the Port of Colombo in Sri Lanka or the Port of Singapore in terms of water depths, said a JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency) official in charge of the project.

After the Japanese Prime Minister’s official visit, top Japanese officials visited New Delhi, Guwahati (Assam), Agartala (Tripura), and in Dhaka (Bangladesh). When Japan proposed the port and the economic emancipation of the majoritarian ethnic communities in the Northeast in 2023, the Indians cheered, after Japanese top officials made presentations in the Indian cities.

Japan wants her physical presence in the Bay of Bengal. As prestigious Japanese media Nikkei Asia writes, Bangladesh’s ambitious deep-sea port promises a strategic anchor for Japan and India.

A mega seaport under construction is shaping up to be a strategic linchpin for Japan and India as the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) partners (Australia, India, Japan, and the United States) aim to counter Chinese influence in the South China Sea.

The Red Sun, as Japan is branded, plans to build a Bengal – Northeast India industrial value chain in cooperation with India and Bangladesh to foster growth in the region.

A mega deep-sea port at Matarbari, in southeast Bangladesh waters, is expected to be completed in 2027. The complex will take a major load off of the country’s main Chattogram (formerly Chittagong) port and a trade gateway for northeast India, which would be less than 100 kilometers from the massive port facility.

Whatever the geopolitical strategy, the deep-sea port project has the potential to improve regional trade ties, boost investment, create jobs, and support infrastructural development, spurring economic growth for Bangladesh, Northeast India, Nepal, and Bhutan, as well as the surrounding areas of the Bay of Bengal.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 27 September 2025

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist based in Bangladesh and a media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders. He is the recipient of the Ashoka Fellowship and the Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at <saleem.samad.1971@gmail.com>; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Bangladesh on The Election Train!

SALEEM SAMAD

After 18 months, the nation will go for an election in February 2026. Since the Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus took charge of the Interim Government last August, he faced several hiccups in running the administration. One of the challenges he faced was when his government announced a road map for a free, fair, and credible election. In this election, people would be able to express their wish to elect a party that would form a legitimate political government.

The other challenge was stabilizing the situation of law and order. Most of the police forces have fled their ranks in fear of retaliation by protesters for killing thousands of students and protesters. The understaffed police forces are inadequate to restore law and order in the country.

However, law enforcement has been supplemented by the Bangladesh Army in every city and town. Initiate the trial of leaders of Awami League, including former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, for crimes against humanity for ordering to opening fire upon thousands of protesters.

During the bloody July-August anti-government street protests known as the Monsoon Revolution, Hasina was forced to quit and flee to India, where she is living in exile for the second time in her political career. Meanwhile, in a typical political development, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP’s) supremo Tarique Rahman, acting Chairman, held a parley with visiting Prof Yunus in London, where he was living in exile.

The hour-long parley thawed a couple of crucial political discontentment with the new government. Yunus repeatedly said the election should be held before June next year. But BNP, a rightist democratic party, demanded that the election be held at the end of December. Or else there will political and economic crisis, which may cause a law and order situation.

Yunus is determined that the election should be held after the crucial reforms are agreed upon with the political parties. However, BNP and its like-minded fringe politics did not give any specific reason for demanding the election to be held at the end of this year. Political circles said that the high school final exam, the month of fasting in Ramadan from mid-February, Eid ul Fitr in mid-March 2026, the advent of monsoon, etc., were not favorable for a general election.

Earlier on the eve of Eid ul-Adha, Yunus announced that the election would be held in April 2026. Well, the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami’s chief, Dr. Shafiqur Rahman, has said the chief advisor’s announcement has reassured the nation of the transition to democracy. The National Citizens’ Party (NCP) stated that steps should be taken to implement the July Charter (Monsoon Revolution), and the proposed reforms; they have no objection to elections being held within the announced timeframe.

BNP rejected the election announcement and declared street protests against the government to hold polls by the end of December. BNP supremo Rahman, after the parley in London, agreed that the deadline for the political parties to commit to the reforms in the judiciary, the election commission, the bureaucracy, police administration, the anti-corruption commission, and others.

Yunus wants the political parties to agree to the reform proposals to ensure transparency, accountability, and public social responsibility of elected leaders. The politicians to keep their party supporters loyal to them, and ensure that the henchmen enjoy impunity for the crimes, they need to influence the police, judiciary, and civil administration.

Therefore, it is understood that the politicians oppose reforms. They have been arguing that the Interim Government does not have the jurisdiction to conduct any reforms. Like the howls of jackals, the parties want the elected parliament should endorse the reforms and make them public laws for the benefit of the people.

Meanwhile, BNP’s high command has refused to ally with Jamaat-e-Islami or any Islamist party. BNP is confident that it will win the majority to form a government. BNP also has also problem with the newly formed King’s party – the National Citizens Party (NCP) by the student leaders who have spearheaded the Monsoon Revolution, which toppled the iron lady Hasina last August.

The NCP blames BNP’s inherent weakness for failing to topple the autocratic regime, which ruled Bangladesh for more than 15 years. Hasina intermittently hunted and haunted the opposition. Her government arrested tens of thousands of BNP leaders, activists and supporters and threw them in prisons on terrorism charges, damaging government properties, and attacking police.

BNP and other opposition leaders were immobilized. The opposition was neutralized after several brutal crackdowns by the law enforcement agencies and henchmen of the ruling Awami League. The opposition was unable to organize effective anti-government street protests to block the elections, which were boycotted.

The elections of 2014, 2018, and 2024 were held sans the opposition and the poll results were doctored, according to national and international election observers, which echoed the media coverage of the election ballot box stuffing, henchmen taking possession of polling stations, and widespread vote buying.

Hasina never bothered to hold free, fair, and inclusive elections. She deliberately ignored the media feedback, human rights organizations’ statements, and the poll observers’ report. She took the senior journalists into her confidence with lucrative benefits. She split the journalists’ union among pro-government loyalists and pushed others to join the opposition union.

Hundreds of journalists faced legal harassment, intimidation and were jailed under repressive cybercrime laws. The draconian cyber laws targeted opposition, critics, dissidents and especially the “delinquent” journalists who refused to be loyal to Hasina.

The media landscape has changed. Most media cannot publish/broadcast news, which hurts the feelings of the student leaders of NCP. Often, they barge into the newsroom when they are dissatisfied with certain news outlets critiquing their source of funding for holding massive rallies and a lavish lifestyle.

In most cases, they intimidate news organizations to delete the story or headlines that are deemed inappropriate and tarnish their image as revolutionaries. Scores of journalists were terminated or asked to resign in the face of the NCP’s threats. They forced the National Press Club in Dhaka to cancel more than a hundred veteran journalists and senior members of the club.

Dr Rakib Al Hasan, Executive Director of the Center for Partnership Initiative, a research office, said NCP failed to gather moss from rolling stones. The new party does not believe in pluralism and secularism. They have been engaged in witch-hunting against professionals, and bureaucrats, including journalists, professors of state universities, and teachers of several educational institutions.

The television and stage actors were banned from shows. Several of the plays were postponed until the drama producers got rid of the actors. The student leaders have lost credibility among the mainstream journalists, intellectuals, and the military hierarchy, which still remains steadfast behind Prof Yunus, remarked Hasan.

What is disliked by the sympathizers of student leaders for appeasing Jamaat-e-Islami and other radicalized Islamic groups, who are cut off from the masses, said the young researcher.

It will be difficult for NCP to muster the support of the millions who also joined the Monsoon Revolution to vote for them in the upcoming election, which is now scheduled to be held eight months from now, predicts the private research organization.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, on 14 June 2025 

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Prof Yunus did not abandon the ship in turbulent sea

SALEEM SAMAD

The Godi media (“embedded journalism” favoring the government) in India did not hesitate to claim that there was a power struggle after a faceoff with the COAS (Chief of Army Staff) over holding a general election by the end of this year.

Responsible Indian TV news channels based in New Delhi broke the news that Prof Muhammad Yunus had fired three chiefs—the army, navy, and air force. The power struggle backfired, and the military chief asked Yunus to step down. He urgently sought political support from the student leaders, who brought the Nobel peace laureate to power in early August last year.

Social media was abuzz with speculation that Prof Yunus had hinted at resigning when political parties negated the reforms initiated by his government and street protests on irrational demands, which clogged the capital’s main arteries, causing immense suffering to the commuters and access to healthcare.

His desire to resign was made public after BBC Bangla news portal quoted Nahid Islam, Convener of the fiery student-led National Citizens Party (NCP), as saying that the frontline student leaders were able to convince Yunus not to step down when the nation was in transition to democracy.

The current situation started to develop as political chaos and has been escalating, driven by protests, harsh rhetoric at rallies, and social media narratives.

A highly placed source said Prof Yunus remains firm on his position that he would step down if the current tension does not ease.

The chief adviser, Yunus, insists on having full authority to make decisions – authority he says was assured when he took charge, according to a highly placed source.

He has also questioned the emergence of obstacles, pointing out that his government had initially received a clear mandate to pursue reforms, try Awami League leaders, and hold the general election.

He discussed matters related to frequent road blockades over myriad demands, reforms, and other issues.

Meanwhile, Army Chief (COAS), General Waker-Uz-Zaman, said the election should take place by December this year. According to a source present at the officers’ address, “Bangladesh needs political stability. This is only possible through an elected government, and not by unelected decision-makers. ”

COAS wants its 27,000 troops deployed in 57 districts to return to the barracks after the parliamentary elections. The troops were visible in cities and towns to quell public lawlessness in the absence of police enforcement, since Yunus has been made Chief Adviser.

The Interim Government of Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus took the reins of the country of 172 million after Sheikh Hasina’s autocratic regime collapsed after the bloody street protests in July-August last year. She fled to Delhi and has been living in exile in India.

Hasina, an iron lady, ruled the country for 15 years with repressive laws, she introduced. Not to speak of opposition, critics, and dissidents, even the journalists and independent media were not spared. They were punished, harassed, intimidated, and imprisoned with repressive cybersecurity laws.

In a series of crackdowns, she kept tens of thousands of opposition members in prisons for months and years, accusing them of terrorism to ensure that they did not interfere with the governing of her regime.

Yunus’s resignation will plunge the nation into a political abyss and turmoil. It will be difficult to bring the country back on track. There is no alternative to Prof Yunus, who is a democrat, moderate, liberal, and secular, said Dr Rakib Al Hasan, head of a think-tank.

Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has been demanding that the Interim Government announce an election road map. The party made lots of noise in street rallies that the election should be held by next December.

Meanwhile, Adviser Syeda Rizwana Hasan said the present government is firm on carrying out three responsibilities. The election is the only agenda. She reiterated her government’s desire that the next general election will be held between this December and next June in 2026.

Second is reforms in the judiciary, the election commission, the civil administration, the police, the education sector, women’s equity issues, and to promote anti-corruption practices.

The third was the trial of those Awami League leaders (including former ministers, members of parliament, and senior politicians for crimes against humanity and corruption), police, and bureaucrats who had been accomplices to the autocratic regime.

When journalists asked Rizwana whether they were under any pressure, she said, “For us, the only pressure is whether we can perform [these duties].

Political observers say that the gap between Yunus and the mainstream political parties on the agreement of the reforms has widened. The divide is growing between the regime and the BNP, the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami, and the student-led NCP.

However, the parties seem cautious in making official statements. Although individual politicians have made various statements, the parties have not yet made any statement.

Political analysts believe that Professor Yunus has two openings. He can either quit or decide to hold elections that would win the confidence of the parties and stakeholders. There are also various kinds of discussions with different parties, including the Jamaat and the NCP. Jamaat’s Ameer Shafiqur Rahman on social media suggested calling an all-party meeting to resolve the stalemate.

The Nobel laureate envisioned that reforms should be the first priority of his government, before holding the elections. The impediment has been the politicians. The political leaders argue that reforms should be formulated in the parliament, not the unelected government.

It’s true that the Interim Government does not have the legitimacy to adopt the reforms and cannot yoke the political parties to agree to it.

Sources said that Yunus is frustrated with the traditional political parties that have been responsible for failing the country for decades. None of the political parties, despite repeated political commitment in more than three decades, has succeeded in initiating any reforms in the crucial sectors.

The politicians, for their interest, hate to reform the judiciary, civil administration, police administration, anti-corruption, and establish an independent election commission.

These reforms would take a heavy toll on their political career. Earlier, the politicians had politicized the judiciary, police, and civil administration in their favor, especially in their constituencies.

Writer and political analyst Mohiuddin Ahmad told BBC Bangla news portal, “BNP, Jamaat, and NCP, these three parties now have an overarching influence on the Interim Government. Tensions have increased between the three parties. As a result, there is a division in politics.”

At the same time, Mohiuddin Ahmad said that the chief advisor lacks the skills to handle the political situation. Overall, the government is not able to function and implement decisions. This stalemate has deepened the crisis, and the government is facing challenges. Ahmed said that if the government now heads towards elections, the parties, including the BNP, will increase cooperation with the government. He believes that it is a way out of the crisis.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, on 29 May 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Bangladesh: The Guardian of The Bay of Bengal!

Saleem Samad

The hostile Indian “Godi Media” is once again rolling up their sleeves after Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus said that, “We Are The Only Guardian Of Ocean…”

Hours before Prof Yunus arrived in Dhaka (before taking oath of public office as Chief Adviser of an Interim Government), he spoke to India’s popular 24/7 news channel NDTV. He said that “if Bangladesh becomes unstable, it will affect [neighboring] West Bengal, Myanmar, and the entire North East India.”

Such a statement by Yunus did raise eyebrows of Delhi-wallas but they did not officially react. Once again, when he mentioned that the North East India (collectively known as the “Seven Sisters”) is landlocked. He suggested that if the Indian states in the North East are given access to the ocean, it will make its economy vibrant and create backward linkage industries which will create employment opportunities for people on both sides of the border.

However, Assam’s (a member of Seven Sisters) Chief Minister, Dr Himanta Biswa Sarma, in a reaction says Yunus’s ploy in stating North East is “landlocked” and proposal to open the region to the “oceans” is a sinister threat and provocative to severe North East from mainland India.

In fact, such a proposal was first given by the Japanese in 2022 that they will help India’s North East to set up industries and infrastructure to reach Bay of Bengal – the maritime routes to export destinations. For Japan, India’s North East has been in focus for some time. Japan has shown an urgency to build an integrated and scaled-up supply chain in the region as it plans to boost its presence and increase investments.

South Asian countries are among the least connected and integrated in the world today, writes Mahua Venkatesh in an influential India Narrative news portal. Bangladesh will indeed be a “game-changer” for the region as it would open up connectivity with India’s North East, especially Tripura and Assam, along with landlocked Nepal and Bhutan, when the US 1.5 billion seaport becomes functional.

During a trip to India, Japan’s former Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, (2021 to 2024) in March 2023 highlighted the importance of strengthening connectivity in the North East region, rich in resources but relatively untapped, for developing robust global supply chains.

When Kishida proposed developing an industrial hub in Bangladesh with “supply chains” to the landlocked North Eastern states of India, and to Nepal and Bhutan beyond by developing a port and transport in the region, “to foster the growth of the entire region,” hardly anybody understood the depth of his vision, writes Venkatesh. The Indian government was upbeat about the Japanese proposal. Soon after a Japanese delegation held parleys with stakeholders on the yawning economic opportunities for the North East region.

Welcoming Japan’s initiative, the Japanese, Indian and Bangladeshi officials also discussed the plans with G. Kishan Reddy, India’s Federal Minister for the North East. At that time the Godi media, or the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), advocating Hindutva (true ‘Indian’ partakes of this ‘Hindu-ness’) did not make any hue and cry nor did it raise “territorial claim” of North East.

Interestingly, history says the British Raj understood their political grievances and gave those princely states reasonable political autonomy which kept them in good humor. However, Delhi systematically ignored the Seven Sisters in scaling up infrastructure development for economic, industrial growth and emancipation of the people. The economic hardship, poverty and controversial state policy agenda went against the ethnic communities in North East states.

Delhi’s bureaucrats responsible for negotiating the political agenda of the ethnic leaders were mishandled. Failing in negotiations with the ethnic leaders, the region plunged into a deadly political crisis and thousands of military and para-military forces were deployed. The soldiers did not speak their language and did not understand their culture and they were blamed for committing human rights abuses during anti-insurgency operations against armed separatists, who were divided into several ethnic groups and sub-groups.

Initially, India refused to hold peace talks with the ethnic leaders blaming the armed insurrections that were aided and abetted by China and Pakistan in the 70s.

Pakistan came into the scenario when Bangladesh was an eastern province of Pakistan. The rogue military dictator General Ayub Khan (later President) provided political and material support to the separatist ethnic groups. Ayub Khan was once GOC and stationed in Dhaka. He knew the region. It’s a long story!

Most of the Indian officials and central politicians have little knowledge about states in north east and journalists travelling to Delhi for meetings or seminars used to hear strange stories about the region. Once, a journalist Anirban Rai, who worked for the Hindustan Times, went to the head office of an airlines at the ticket reservation counter to reconfirm his return flight to Guwahati, state capital of Assam. He was asked to produce his passport, which made him angry!

A fresh conspiracy theory has been cooked up that giving access to the ocean by Bangladesh challenges India’s regional security.

The feel-good project to serve as a key port for the landlocked North East Indian states is expected to be commercially operational in 2030. The economic development will immensely contribute to the rich cultural heritage of the millions of vibrant communities living in the region, bordering China on the side and restive Myanmar in the South. Meanwhile, projects for road and railway connectivity projects to the desired port from the Seven Sisters are almost completed by the Indian and Bangladesh governments.

Though Delhi has not issued any official statement, former senior officials like Ambassador Veena Sikri said Yunus is not politically empowered to negotiate with China to expand the Bay of Bengal to India’s arch-enemy and open the gateway to the ocean for North East.

One must admit that China, through its infrastructure investments, has made major inroads into Bangladesh after 2009, when Sheikh Hasina was re-elected backed by India (according to Indian President Pranab Mukherjee’s autobiography The Coalition Years), since Modi’s government was hesitant to continue strengthening bilateral ties with Dhaka.

What the Godi media do not discuss is that Bangladesh is the guardian of the Bay of Bengal, the world’s largest bay, which forms the southern border of Bangladesh, covering an area of approximately 2.17 million square kilometers and is a crucial part of the Indian Ocean.

Bangladesh has sovereign rights for the exploration, exploitation, conservation, and management of natural resources, including both living and non-living resources.

Bangladesh has delimited its maritime boundaries with India and Myanmar through arbitration, ensuring a fair and equitable division of maritime zones in the Bay of Bengal. The 12-nautical mile territorial sea, a 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ), and a continental shelf extending up to 350 nautical miles, according to international law and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Bangladesh has maritime rights in the bay.

The Indian TV news blames Yunus for recalibrating its compass towards Beijing and has crossed the red line for anti-India rants while visiting China, and they argue that his government is not legitimate. Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington said Bangladesh has become a battleground for great power competition.

India’s ruling BJP and the South Block in New Delhi must stop looking at Bangladesh through the lens of Sheikh Hasina, who has fled Dhaka and taken shelter somewhere in New Delhi.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan on 2 May 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Bangladesh Denies India Thwarts Pakistan’s Engineered Coup!

SALEEM SAMAD

An Indian news portal, Swarajya, published an exclusive article with the headline “India Helped Thwart a Coup Against Bangladesh Army Chief by Pro-Pak Islamist Generals,” written by journalist Jaideep Mazumdar. Swarajya periodical was launched in 1956. The media boasts of ethical clarity, intellectual honesty, and the ability to speak truth to power, accentuating his reputation as a bold journalist.

The question is how ethical and honest the article carries on conspiracy to a coup plot by Pakistan which is fortunately unearthed by Indian hawks at the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), a spy agency that claims to have shared encrypted Intel to alert Bangladesh armed forces headquarters. There are several issues which need to be put on the table. First, why would Pakistan’s dreaded spy agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) go for a half-baked coup plot, which eventually did not see the light of day?

Second, why would Bangladesh’s military headquarters in the capital Dhaka take the crucial Indian military information seriously, when nearly 1400 students and protesters were shot and killed during the July-August revolution to topple the autocrat Sheikh Hasina and India and Indian media remained tight-lipped?

Let’s presume that the plot was successful. Millions of students and protesters would pour into the streets of Bangladesh protesting the illegal coup d’état, which goes against the spirit of the Monsoon Revolution. The nation would plunge into a bloody civil war. Bangladesh Army is divided into several regional commanders based in 31 cantonments distributed among the infantry, artillery, armored corps, and other vital units.

Mazumdar, who writes on Indian current affairs and India’s neighbors does not know it will be very difficult to muster the allegiance of 10 regional commanders to join the mutiny, which they will be able to understand in an hour that the plot would not serve their purpose. To stay in power, the mutineers will have to slaughter thousands of protesters in the streets and arrest tens of thousands, which will turn into a massive headache for the soldiers to contain them in the long run.

The mutineers know that the people do not listen to state broadcast radio. It will be difficult to ventilate their crucial messages. The alternative would be to create a social media channel to keep their propaganda kicking. As Mazumdar writes the coup engineered by Pakistan military establishment will usher in pro-Pakistan elements in power with the moral support of the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Isami.

Several senior retired officers, who have privy to military affairs have confided that the story by Mazumdar is fictitious and has several flaws in information of name, ranks, and position. Most importantly the alleged plotter Lieutenant General Muhammad Faizur Rahman, who was supposed to replace the current COAS is still in service.

The other half a dozen Generals who reportedly supported Rahman are still in service and have been reassigned to new positions, according to retired officers. Well, Jamaat-e-Islami has yet to apologize for supporting and abetting the marauding Pakistan military during the liberation war in 1971. The Jamaat-e-Islami youths were recruited to raise an Islamic militia and Al Badr, a secret death squad responsible for abduction and execution without mercy.

They were trained and also provided weapons and logistics to hunt and eliminate suspected Mukti Bahini guerillas and independence sympathizers. The victims were mostly Hindus.

Most political analysts argue that the Jamaat will not make such a suicidal decision, which will destroy their political career. They did make a political blunder in 1971 and took four decades to stand on their feet. Next time if the Islamist party supports an illegal military junta, the party will opt for self-destruction.

Salauddin Babar, editor of pro-Jamaat newspaper Dainik Naya Diganta says Jamaat-e-Islami is a political party and has learned to keep their heads above the water during the Awami League government of Sheikh Hasina’s repressive regimes.

Thousands of the party leaders and members had been in prison on charges of Islamic terrorism and destabilizing the country. Jamaat has been able to stand firm on their political indoctrination. Babar believes that Jamaat will never take a shortcut to power on a piggy-back of the military. Instead, they would demand the mutineers to hold a free and fair inclusive election. This will irk the plotters.

Then who is the alternative Islamist party? Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh is a madrassa-based platform that has millions of students and followers in small cities and rural areas. The organization opposes Deoband’s Islamic theology of liberalism, and respect for others’ religious practices, culture, and tradition.

The military leaders will have to rely on the support of Hefazat-e-Islam. The armed militia will eventually turn the country into Talibanism. Which will be chaotic and would be difficult for the rogue military to bridle them.

The tide has turned around. India as a victorious army in 1971 was a catalyst in the historic surrender of the marauding Pakistan military to protect the sovereignty and integrity of the eastern province. The Indians had fondled Bangladesh since its independence. It cannot be ignored that India is the largest neighbor and its borders are wrapped around Bangladesh.

Pakistan, to avenge the humiliating defeat is expected to fiddle Bangladesh which was not friendly with Islamabad. The country’s three regimes, out of five were not hostile to Pakistan. Islamabad should be contended with the diplomatic relations. Nobel laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus extended warm hearts to Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif when the two met at a summit in Cairo. The meeting turned the relations from cold to warm.

After the Mujib-Bhutto official meetup in February 1974, the relations apparently became warm. When Mujib attended the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit in Lahore, Pakistan and later Bhutto paid an official visit to Bangladesh and planted a tree sapling at the National Martyrs Memorial for those killed during the brutal birth of Bangladesh. Everything went well.

Trade and commerce between the two countries resumed and hatred on both sides significantly thawed. Meanwhile, scores of Pakistani industrialists and business entrepreneurs have relocated their textile factories in Bangladesh since 2000, according to Express Tribune newspaper. The textile products were destined for European and American markets.

The production by Pakistan industrialists in Bangladesh will further multiply when the Trump administration enforces a trade embargo with China. Export analysts say the Bangladesh market for ready-made garments (RMG) will be able to make a dent in garments sold to Walmart, Amazon, Gap, Levi Strauss, Macy’s, Nike and several other giant clothes retailers in the United States.

Dr Imtiaz Ahmed, a professor at Dhaka University and a political scientist said Pakistan will not jeopardize such an ongoing opportunity which will lead to the Trump administration’s imposing trade sanctions on a military administration in Bangladesh after the takeover of the country through an unconstitutional method.

Most importantly, the Bangladesh Army is trained in defensive combat tactics and crowd control. Bangladesh has negative threats of war from its neighbors (India and Myanmar). The military is trained to be deployed in the United Nations peacekeeping missions. Several contingents are readied to be deployed in several war-torn countries in Africa and Haiti, in the Caribbean.

Bangladesh is a significant contributor to UN peacekeeping missions, having deployed over 160,000 peacekeepers to 54 missions in 40 countries, with 6,802 currently deployed in 9 missions.

A foot soldier’s lifetime income comes from peacekeeping. The soldier invests in housing, buying arable lands, and setting up trading stores in their hometown. With military wages and benefits, it is not possible to live a life free from poverty.

If the peacekeeping mission is jeopardized, the soldiers will revolt against their commanding officers and there is the worst possibility that they may take extreme measures, which occurred on 7th November 1975. The soldiers will disobey the commands of their officers performing martial law duties. In such situation, the nation will plunge into a long-drawn civil war.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which advocates Hindutva means ‘Hindu-ness’. BJP’s inherent political ideology asserts that Hindu nationalism as an Indian national identity is not at all happy that their all-weather friend Sheikh Hasina has been ousted and sent to India to live in exile.

The South Block in New Delhi could not ascertain that the United States, Great Britain and Schengen (European Union) visas would be denied and stamped visas would be revoked.

For now, Delhi had taken a rat in their throat, which they cannot swallow nor vomit. They are in limbo with their guest Hasina. Admitted a senior Indian diplomat based in Dhaka.

Muhammad Yunus, the present head of government has reiterated that Bangladesh wants to have good relations with India. Possibly BJP explicitly does not believe and South Block has some reservations about improving bilateral relations.

For the time being, Bangladesh and India have developed love-and-hate relations. Both countries cannot avoid it but have lots of distrust, suspicion, and pessimism.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 18 March 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Bangladesh Election Schedule

SALEEM SAMAD

The inherent weaknesses of Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus’s interim government has prompted Chief of Army Staff, General Waker-Uz-Zaman, to call for an elected government. His statement on 24 February made it clear to the government, political parties, and student leaders responsible for waging the July-August Monsoon Revolution last year, which ousted Sheikh Hasina’s autocratic rule, that 18 months is enough time to hold a general election.

Prof Yunus has announced that the election could be held in December this year. However, his Press Secretary, Shafiq ul Alam, said it could be held either in December or January 2026. The election date to parliament will be announced at the decision of the Election Commission, which is not an independent body. Earlier, Yunus has repeatedly said that the elections will be held only after reforms of crucial state institutions take place to ensure democracy, accountability, and transparency of the government and the officials.

The General repeated twice that the election should be free, fair and inclusive. The questions that come to mind are: What does he mean by inclusivity? Did he mean that no political parties should be left out from contesting the parliamentary elections?

On the other hand, the students have been agitating that Sheikh Hasina led Awami League should be banned and Yunus should not invite the Jatiya Party to any official dialogue.

aThe East Pakistan Awami Muslim League is the oldest party and was born only a few years after the birth of Pakistan. The founders of the party, who defected from the Muslim League in a bid to accommodate others, dropped “Muslim” and formed the Awami League in 1955.

Where as, Jatiya Party, a king’s party emerged after General Husain Muhammad Ershad in a bloodless coup in 1981 formed his party to consolidate his power. In 1990, he was overthrown after months of violent street protests by the students.

His party indeed was a “loyal opposition” during the 15 years rule of Hasina. The honeymoon period of the Jatiya Party abruptly ended when the Awami League regime collapsed and Hasina fled to India last August.

The back-scratching has prompted the leaders of the student revolution to say no to the Jatiya Party – a loud and clear message that they should not be in politics in future.

The two military juntas took power and formed king’s parties – one was the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which ruled the country for the fourth consecutive term. The second was the Jatiya Party. General Ershad’s party ruled for nine years until his regime collapsed in 1990.

BNP was formed when military dictator General Zia ur Rahman, a liberation war decorated officer, took power in the vacuum when independence hero Sheikh Mujib ur Rahman was assassinated in August 1975 by a dozen young military officers without a political vision to steer the country through a crisis.

General Rahman took over the helms of affairs of the country, after a soldier’s mutiny in less than three months of the previous military putsch. Despite having a political vision, for unknown reasons, he rehabilitated those politicians who opposed the independence of Bangladesh in crucial positions.

He also rehabilitated scores of Bangla-speaking military officers who fought alongside the Pakistan Army against the Mukti Bahini guerillas and Indian troops during the bloody war in 1971 and dodged the surrender ceremony of Pakistan armed forces. Also, most of the Bangla-speaking military officers were recruited in senior positions in the police services.

In a speech, last week, commemorating the fallen officers of the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) revolt 17 years ago, General Waqar-uz-Zaman has said, ‘We are thinking that we will finish the work quickly and take the army back to the cantonment.””We have to be patient. Work with professionalism. Until an elected government comes, we have to do this with patience,” he furthermore stated.

Many have remarked that the COAS has expressed discomfort against the Yunus government when the situation of law and order reached an alarming level.

The crime situation in Bangladesh is such that there are thefts, robberies and dacoities committed in broad daylight causing widespread panic among the citizenry.The Home Affairs Advisor, Lt. General Jahangir Alam Chowdhury, called a press conference at his house at 3 am and blamed the Awami League for the law and order situation. He said, “Awami League is funnelling ill-gotten money to desperate criminals.”

Political and administrative circles believe that the comments of the army chief regarding the alarming rise of crime amid the demand for the resignation of the home adviser, and his accountability have given the allegation of failure of the government.

Meanwhile, Indian Nobel laureate Prof Amartya Sen, who was born in Bangladesh and studied in a school in Dhaka in an interview with the Indian official news agency Press Trust of India (PTI) a few days ago praised the Bangladeshi Army for its restraint in not attempting to establish military rule, as has happened in many other countries.

Dr Sen said “Yunus is an old friend. I know he is highly capable and, in many ways, a remarkable human being. He has made strong statements about Bangladesh’s secularism and democratic commitment.”

In many third-world countries, the military has always been ambitious to take over power and overthrow a legitimate government, Bangladesh Army seems to behave very rationally.

Bangladesh military officers are refused deployment in United Nations Peacekeeping and also provided visit visas to the United States, Canada, Great Britain, Australia and European countries for track record on human rights abuse. That is one of the reasons that General Zaman has advised his troops deployed for the anti-crime operation so-called “Devil Hunt” to avoid excessive force and shoot to kill suspects.

On the other hand, the mainstream political parties Bangladesh BNP and Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami have been demanding an early election, a month after Yunus took charge of the government in August last year. Dr Yunus, however, urged the political leaders to hold their patience until the crucial reforms of the election commission, judiciary, civil administration, constitution, media, anti-corruption, police administration and others are implemented.

The Chief Adviser of the Interim Government aims for the reforms in a bid to develop a state system based on public ownership, accountability, and welfare. The political parties negotiating with the government have in the back of their mind the fact that the Yunus administration does not have the legitimacy to implement the reforms in the absence of a parliament. They are saying in closed-door party meetings that the political parties would be empowered to implement the reforms. Without the reforms, most observers and political think tanks believe that the political parties will take the country back to square one when they refuse to have the reforms in place.

Reforms will bring about more accountability and transparency of elected public representatives, which the politicians will not agree to in any case. In addition, the independence of the judiciary, and civil and police administration will jeopardize their authority over their constitution.

This is not the first time that the political and administrative reforms have been taken seriously. In 1990, days after the downfall of the military dictator, the student leaders were able to convince the mainstream opposition parties, the Awami League, BNP and Left coalition leaders to sign a pledge that they would bring about reforms of the government institutions.

Unfortunately, both the Awami League and BNP ruled the country several times. They deliberately ignored the reforms, leading to politicization of police, civil services, judiciary, election commission and other governmental institutions to manipulate in favor of the politicians and their henchmen. Therefore, political historian Mohiuddin Ahmed predicts that hundreds of pages of reform documents would be thrown out of the windows of the iconic massive parliament building designed by Louis Kahn, a celebrated visionary architect.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan on 4 March 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad