Bangladesh likely to plunge into political violence

SALEEM SAMAD

The two rival political parties, the governing Awami League and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) are on a head-on collision course on 28 October.

In a major showdown of the BNP in mobilisation of supporters, members and sympathisers, the Awami League leaders and senior ministers are threatening that they will block roads and intersections in the capital Dhaka on 28 October and mobilise thousands of supporters.

Party general secretary Obaidul Quader and Minister for Roads and Highways warned the BNP that they would face a similar outcome in 10 December, last year.

After protracted negotiations, the BNP got permission for its last year’s December 10 rally at the fringe of the capital – a ground which was not its first choice of BNP.

The permission came at the cost of a life, injuries to around 100 people, and the arrest of dozens of party stalwarts.

Meanwhile, the Dhaka Metropolitan Police’s commissioner, Habibur Rahman warned of tough actions if the BNP caused harm to the lives and properties of 2.24 crore (nearly 22 million) residents of the metropolitan city while holding the political programme.

However, BNP’s general secretary Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir explained that their “loyalists won’t ‘occupy streets’ during the Dhaka rally” and has no plans to stage any sit-in protests during the party’s ‘mass rally’ in Dhaka. The party has taken adequate steps to ensure that the gathering ends peacefully, he added.

The threats against BNP were also made by Information and Broadcasting Minister Dr Hasan Mahmud, a family member of the Sunni cleric Shah Ahmed Shafi founder of the Islamist organisation Hefazat-e-Islam (Protector of Islam) that the governing Awami League members, supporters and henchmen will dominate the streets of Dhaka.

Literally, Dhaka will come to a standstill by warring parties, marching in the streets with bamboo sticks and batons to confront, one to obstruct holding the rally and another push through the Awami League and ‘golden boys’ barricades at all major intersections.

The ruling party would supplement the thousands of riot police and elite anti-crime police RAB, police detectives and security agencies mobilised to enforce the “law and order” situation.

Fearing police and ‘golden boys’ harassment, BNP leadership has called on their members and disciples to reach Dhaka two days early.

The government in the past on several occasions during BNP’s rallies blocked public transport, like buses, trains and ferryboats (launch) services. Several hotels and informal accommodations were raided and hundreds were arrested accused of sabotage and conspiring against the government. In most cases, the hotel owners are asked to vacate the rooms of their customers and close for 24 to 48 hours in the name of security issues posed by the opposition’s gathering.

BNP, the country’s largest opposition group demands that the next parliamentary polls, expected in early January, be overseen by a caretaker government to ensure a free and fair election, writes the Daily Star.

The party boycotted the election in 2014 and alleged vote rigging and intimidation during the 2018 polls, which were held under an Awami League government.

Of course, Awami League repeated its refusal to step down before the election, arguing that such an ‘unelected [caretaker] government’ would be unconstitutional, and would create a crisis from a political vacuum which would hinder the country’s politics and development.

Awami League launched a violent anti-government street protest demanding a caretaker government, which led to elections under a neutral government in 1996.

Sheikh Hasina, the current leader of the Awami League founded by her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, an independence hero scraped the elections under a caretaker government when she swung to power in 2009 after the system was challenged in the higher court and declared unconstitutional.

Meanwhile, the Brussels-based International Crisis Group fears countrywide violence and conflicts in Bangladesh from October 2023 to March 2024. The assessment was recently published in the global conflict tracker, CrisisWatch, and qualitative assessments provided by Crisis Group’s analysts based in conflict areas.

The assessment identified several parameters of conflicts during the six months and said a potentially high-stakes violent election in January 2024 is a prime reason for hostilities. Violence could surge in the lead-up to or after voting in January, as envisaged by the European think tank.

The ruling Awami League is expected to ignore calls for it to step down and hand power to a neutral regime that would ensure holding a free, fair, inclusive and credible election, and instead continue crackdown on opposition BNP members, says the report.

Not very unfamiliar with political protests in the country, the rival supporters could clash in street battles or attack party offices or candidates, especially rebel candidates.

Amid the political tensions, the Islamist groups will also bake extra bread when the oven is still warm. The Islamists become more active in opposing the government, the report said.

The potential consequences would be a rigged or disputed election could trigger fierce anti-government protests. Facing the prospect of a rigged poll, the opposition will probably boycott the election and could become radicalised, adopting more violent tactics.

In the worst-case scenario, the military might intervene should the election’s aftermath become chaotic, says the Crisis Group report.

The International Crisis Group understands that conflicts, violence and political reprisals could also cause the government to increase its dependence on India and China, as the United States and its potential Western countries would probably respond with sanctions, such as collective visa bans on top officials by the West, especially the United States.

First published in the Northeast News, 23 October 2023

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter: @saleemsamad

Too Little, Too Late For Bangladesh Democratic Roadmap

SALEEM SAMAD

On the eve of the military-installed interim government’s chief adviser Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed’s crucial address to the nation [http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=36326] was interpreted in a first-page commentary in a Bangladesh newspaper that it would be a “landmark speech” and believes it would be a “Magna Carta” for the Bangalee nation.

In January 2007 the over-zealous military generals bulldozed the constitutional means for a transition to democracy, fired the caretaker government, declared a state of emergency and of course installed an interim government with hand-picked advisers they hire and fire.

Well, the much ado about Monday's speech to the nation was too little and too late for the restoration of democracy. Though the election has been planned days after the Victory Day celebration in mid-December, the chief adviser deliberately avoided any commitment about the deadline to withdraw the dreaded emergency rules.

It seems that the chief adviser was cruel about the aspiration of the people at large and instead advised the political parties not to question the results of the general elections. This statement came, when the “Election Commission, which has already made itself controversial through various actions and inactions and whose credibility remains eminently questionable,” remarks an editorial in New Age.

Despite passionate requests to withdraw Emergency Power Rules by the political parties, the interim government’s chief made it clear that the emergency has come to stay. But was too benevolent to relax or suspend certain provisions of the Emergency Powers Rules as and when his government deemed it fit.

Aptly said by a university teacher that the withdrawal of emergency is a prerequisite for dialogue, which has disappointed the nation. The political concession laid out to the nation is a political farce.

1. The long-running ban on indoor politics all across the country will ease from May 13.

2. The government will start a dialogue with political parties, starting on May 22. The Chief Adviser's Office will send out invitation letters to political parties from Tuesday.

3. The government will either relax or suspend certain provisions in the emergency powers rules to facilitate electioneering and create a proper context for the polls.

4. Ahead of elections, the government will form a national charter with the opinions of all related parties, which is meant to bring a qualitative change to government and politics.

In a bid to create a “congenial atmosphere” for elections, the indoor politics would continue to be “indoors”. With conditions attached there are half a dozen do’s and don’ts which flouts the constitutional provision of freedom of assembly and freedom of expression. The bindings include that political parties cannot assemble more than 50 people during indoor activities. The meeting agenda will discuss organisational matters only. They cannot use a public address system during the meeting. Media cannot broadcast live of political events. The meeting venues are limited to designated places. Lastly, the party has to inform the nearest police station at least 48 hours before the event. Possibly to ensure transparency of indoor politics!

He did not mention the names, nor indirectly referred to the two women leaders Khaleda Zia and Shiekh Hasina presently languishing in special prisons. Well, he also did not hint whether the interim government has dropped the “minus-two” formula which was meant to banish them from politics forever. He failed to mention their status of standing trial for corruption and extortions. Even he did not indicate whether they could be invited for the political dialogue. Also, it is not clear whether they can participate in the planned election at the end of this year.

Fakhruddin said, "The precondition of a meaningful, free, fair and acceptable election was checking black money and muscle power, establishing the rule of law, conducting an anti-corruption drive, improving law and order and, above all, making state institutions effective and dynamic."

Whereas, the Brussels based International Crisis Group recent report in April 2008 states: The caretaker government, along with the international community, must take credible steps to restore democracy to Bangladesh ahead of the December 2008 general elections.

His dramatic words “golden opportunity” and “golden future” for the nation has been marred in the wake of series of failure to break the cycle of criminalisation of politics, institutionalised corruption, organised crime, money laundering, accumulation of black money, and punish profiteering traders.

Dr. Ahmed for obvious reasons avoided whether the dialogue would have an open-ended agenda to ensure a guaranteed transition to democracy.

Political watchers explain that the “National Charter” to negotiate the election agenda would be the guideline for dialogue with the mainstream political parties and allies. Failure to comply with the charter, the political parties, and party leaders would be punished, banished or barred. It seems like a snake and ladder game!

Instead of the so-called National Charter, the authority could have developed a Commission for Integrity and Accountability of the Democratically Elected Public Representatives, which could be the bible for politicians and elected leaders in public offices. Thus they could refrain from exercising threats and coercion for political reforms of the parties.

From Dr. Ahmed’s words, it is understood that the authorities have ceased “implementation of internal reform of the political parties voluntarily.” He further said that the nation expects implementation of the expected reform for providing the nation with democratic behaviour, honest, efficient and dynamic leadership.

When the international watchdogs and donor consortiums are demanding for a credible election, the caretaker government's prime objectives, according to the chief adviser, was to hold a "free, fair, neutral and acceptable election and start a post-election healthy democratic system".

The piece de resistance of his speech came when he claimed that his government was committed to establishing the rule of law. With the people’s fundamental rights suspended under a state of emergency, complaints galore of the judiciary not being allowed to function freely, mass media forced to work in a suffocating environment created by illegal interference almost on a routine basis by a security intelligence agency, such talks surely come as empty rhetoric, writes an editorial in New Age, an English language daily published from capital Dhaka.

Meanwhile, the editors and journalist’s professional bodies demanded immediate withdrawal of emergency rules which has immensely curtailed press freedom. Journalists also underlined red area in exercising their profession and remarked "invisible, unwritten pressure and control over the media".

Dr. Ahmed hoped that after his address all questions, suspicious and speculations centering election will be buried. But observers understand that the real motive and intention of the military-backed authorities will further deepen. The political parties are pushed into a corner, like a whisker-cat trapping a mouse, with the delimitation drawn for the political bout. The road to democracy, in fact, has come to a difficult crossroads of military rule, emergency, and economic stagnation. The speculation and suspicions will obviously gather moss, which will turn into a political crisis.

First published in the CounterCurrents,org, 21 May 2008

Saleem Samad, an Ashoka Fellow is a Bangladesh born journalist presently living in exile in Canada. He edits www.DurDesh.net streaming from Toronto and specialises in conflict, terrorism, security and intelligence issues in South Asia. He could be reached by email saleemsamad@hotmail.com