BANGLADESH Battle of the Begums

S. BINODKUMAR SINGH

Paving the way for the constitution of an "all-party" Interim Government to oversee the next Parliamentary Elections, all 52 ministers in the Awami League (AL)-led Begum Sheikh Hasina Wajed Government submitted their resignations on November 11, 2013. 

Subsequently, on November 21, 2013, a 29-member Interim Government was formed under Prime Minister Hasina. 28 other Ministers (including 21 Cabinet Ministers and seven State Ministers) were also inducted. All the 28 ministers are members of the Grand Alliance which was formed under AL leadership in December 2008, after the last Parliamentary Elections. While 20 Ministers have been re-inducted, eight new faces, including Anisul Islam Mahmud, Rahul Amin Hawlader, Rawshan Ershad, Mujibul Hague Chunnu, Salma Islam of the Jatiya Party (JP); Amir Hossain Amu and Tofail Ahmed of the AL; and Rashed Khan Menon of the Workers Party (WP).

Hasina later gave an assurance that the Ministers of the Interim Government would not make any policy decisions, and would only engage in 'routine work' during the election period, adding, "I want to assure you [people and the opposition] that the elections will be held in a free and fair manner. I urge the opposition leader to join the elections and the people will decide who assumes power." Prime Minister Hasina also stated that President Abdul Hamid had advised her to lead the Interim Government.

This move, however, has been vehemently opposed by the Begum Khaleda Zia's Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the 18-party opposition alliance she heads, which includes the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and other Islamist radicals. The alliance has been demanding a non-party Caretaker Government (CG) on the pattern of arrangements under which earlier elections were held. In June 2011, Parliament had abolished the non-party CG system, declaring the 15-year-old constitutional provision illegal.

While the BNP-led alliance has opposed the formation of the Interim Government and is planning its strategy of response, the Election Commission (EC), on November 25, 2013, announced that the 10^th General Election would be held on January 5, 2014. Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Kazi Rakibuddin Ahmed made the announcement in an address to the nation on state radio and television and appealed to all political parties to contest the election, assuring them of taking all necessary measures, including deployment of the armed forces, to ensure a free and fair election. According to the schedule, the deadline for submission of nomination papers is December 2, 2013.

Since the AL led-Government had completed its tenure on October 24, 2013, Article 123 of the Constitution of Bangladesh required general elections to be held within 90 days, that is, before January 24, 2014.

On November 25, 2013, the Opposition announced a 48-hour countrywide blockade from November 26, 2013. In a press briefing arranged minutes after the announcement of the Election schedule, BNP acting Secretary General, Mirza Fakhrul Islam, called on the EC to postpone the polls schedule until a consensus on the arrangements for a non-party CG was reached among the political parties. BNP spokesman Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir declared, "We reject the election schedule."

Stunned by the announcement and realizing that their attempts to obstruct the announcement of the polls had failed, the Opposition alliance intensified its 'street protests' unleashing wave of disruptive demonstrations and violence in the hope that this would force the Government to rethink its position. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), as many as 25 people, including 20 civilians, four JeI and its student wing Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS) cadres and one trooper of Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) have been killed in street violence since the announcement of the poll schedule (all data till December 1, 2013).

The present disturbances, however, are only an intensification of near-continuous disruptions since January 21, 2013, when the first verdict in the trials for the War Crimes of 1971 was announced. Since then, the country has recorded at least 267 fatalities, including 157 civilians, 96 JeI-ICS cadres and 14 Security Force (SF) personnel, in violence unleashed by the Islamist formations backed by the BNP-JeI combine.

Meanwhile, on November 26, 2013, the Communist Party of Bangladesh (CPB), at a Press Conference at its central office in Dhaka, and the Democratic Left Alliance (DLA), a combine of eight left-leaning political parties, at another press conference at the Nirmal Sen Auditorium in Dhaka city, rejected the announced election schedule. The CPB President Mujahidul Islam Selim declared, "CPB is rejecting the election schedule and will not take part in any one-sided election." Saiful Huq, the DLA coordinator, also rejected the election schedule on the grounds that the process would encourage a 'unilateral election'. Similarly, at a Press Vonference in Dhaka city's Mukti Bhaban on November 28, 2013, Socialist Party of Bangladesh (SPB) General Secretary Khalequzzaman asserted, "Since we believe that a one-sided election under this EC will escalate the present crises rather than resolve it, the CPB-SPB will not take part in the election."

On November 28, 2013, amid fresh political violence and uncertainty about the upcoming General Election, the EC conceded that the January 5 polls could be postponed if consensus is forged by the country's feuding political parties. CEC Kazi Rakibuddin Kazi Rakibuddin Ahmed, when asked if the panel could revise the poll schedule, observed, "Everything is possible if they (political parties) reach a settlement in the people's interest."

Any consensus between Bangladesh's polarized political parties is, however, highly unlikely. Shahriar Kabir, a war crimes researcher, thus noted, "The body language of Khaleda made it clear that she is not interested in a resolution and the reason is she is dictated to by Jamaat-e-Islami, which wants to push the country towards a civil war." On the other hand, the Sheikh Hasina-led Government is determined to hold elections on time. While giving an introductory speech at the meeting of the Awami League Parliamentary Board (ALPB) at her Dhanmondi office in Dhaka city on November 28, 2013, Sheikh Hasina urged the people to be prepared to vote, saying that the next parliamentary elections would be held at the "right time" and the people would elect their representatives according to their wishes. Referring to Khaleda Zia, she declared that the Opposition leader was "killing innocent people in the streets" and pushing the country into complete anarchy, even while she kept herself aloof from the street-agitation and lived a "lavish life".

Bangladesh had witnessed a remarkably violence-free poll on December 29, 2008, when the AL secured a landslide victory, with 230 of a total of 300 seats in the Jatiya Sangsad (National Parliament). The AL subsequently formed the Grand Alliance along with the JP, which accounted for 27 seats in the Jatiya Sangsad, and with 'others' who accounted for five seats. The BNP, which had won 193 seats in the 2001 Elections, collapsed to a strength of just 29 seats, while its principal ally, JeI, was reduced from a strength of 17 seats to two.

With the AL Government hitting the Islamist formations decisively during its tenure, the Islamists and their BNP backers are determined to make one last attempt to derail the polls. Inevitably, in what is being viewed as a virtual battle for survival on both sides of the political spectrum, Bangladesh is heading towards a violent election. The BNP-JeI combine has already made its intention clear, taking the fight into the streets, and rejecting the very possibility of any political discourse for consensus formation. Unsurprisingly, the Sheikh Hasina Government has also hunkered down, to take all necessary measures to enforce a peaceful polling process.

First published in the South Asia Intelligence Review, Weekly Assessments & Briefings, Volume 12, No. 22, December 2, 2013

S. Binodkumar Singh is Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Gearing up for a change of guard

SUBIR BHAUMIK

 

INDIA HAS, in recent weeks, formally hosted two senior leaders from Bangladesh - both from the opposition parties. First it was the country's former ruler HM Ershad and then the former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia, who was hosted for a whole week. Both met top Indian leaders and expressed satisfaction after the discussions. These discussions may not solve any of the bilateral issues that were discussed - but India's hosting of two opposition figures from Bangladesh at this juncture seems to be significant.

In Dhaka, the political class puts this down to "serious doubts" in the Indian establishment about the ruling Awami League's chances of coming back to power. Since democracy returned to Bangladesh after the ouster of Ershad's military regime, the Awami League and the BNP has turns, winning elections every five years. So a change of guard next year may not surprise anyone, except those who feel the Awami League's massive mandate in December 2008 may have helped it consolidate its position in a nation that was largely frustrated with Islamist excesses, murderous vindictive politics and rotten governance. That has not happened - and for various reasons. Poor leadership, corruptions scams, the needless spat with micro-credit guru Mohammed Yunus - and much more.

But some say the  Awami League has been badly let down by India, after all it has done for its large neighbour. In a country where agriculture is still the occupation of most, water is an emotive issue. India's failure to deliver on the Teesta Water Sharing Treaty has hit Hasina's government below the belt. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was forced to back off on the issue due to the sudden opposition of West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee. This has become a national embarrassment for Singh and India - but it has become favourite ammunition for attacking Hasina back home.

The same is true about the much-awaited, but the much-delayed, Land Boundary  Agreement involving the exchange of enclaves. Those who follow India's murky coalition politics may appreciate why Singh's hands are somewhat tied, but most in Bangladesh, specially those who gun for the Awami League, have a huge issue to run down the party as an "Indian stooge" that has got nothing for all it has done for India.

The present Awami League government has gone after Islamic radicals and separatist rebels from northeast India with a vengeance after it came to power. Most of the top guns of the northeastern insurgency, except the ULFA's elusive military wing chief Paresh Barua who perhaps fled Bangladesh at the right time, have been nabbed and handed over to the Indian authorities. Some of these leaders have been forced to start dialogues with Delhi after announcing ceasefires.

Bangladesh's security services have started massive operations against Pakistan-engineered operations to use Bangladesh for pushing in huge quantities of Indian counterfeit currency. Hasina's government is also ready to concede to most Indian demands from transit to use of Chittagong port - all that augurs well for India's northeast. But in diplomacy, one has to get something to be able to give something. This is where Hasina has been left high and dry and that, in no small measure, is contributing to the possible erosion of the Awami League's popularity.

As a major regional power, it is natural for India to anticipate a change of guard in a neighbouring country and prepare for it. But why not do it discreetly? The way Begum Zia and Ershad were hosted in Delhi has only convinced Bangladeshis that India has written off the Awami League's chances in the next parliament polls and so is preparing for the inevitable. It was natural for a trusted ally like Hasina to expect a payback from India, Teesta et al, in the run-up  to her poll campaign. The last thing she could have bargained for are the current signals from Delhi that India is preparing to change sides if she does not win.

First published in The Hindustan Times, November 18, 2012

Subir Bhaumik, a veteran journalist, is a Senior Fellow with the Kolkata-based Centre for Study in International Relations and Development

Why Bangladesh matters

TAYLOR DINERMAN

The 1971 Bangladesh War of Liberation is best known to America’s baby boom generation as having resulted in the record album “The Concert for Bangladesh” featuring music by George Harrison, Ringo Starr, Bob Dylan, Eric Clapton and others. It was a landmark event that set the precedent for Live Aid and subsequent rock music centered international charity programs.

However the nation of Bangladesh, with more than 120 million inhabitants, is today an important regional power that is trying hard to escape from a legacy of mass poverty and tyrannical rule.

After Bangladesh successfully broke away from Pakistan, for years it resembled a typical Third World state, mired in corruption and dictatorship. Yet, since the military dictator General Mohammad Ershad was overthrown in a fairly bloodless revolution in 1990, Bangladesh has been a lively, imperfect, tumultuous and violent democracy.

As a sympathetic American wrote in 1993: “For Bangladeshis not only watch politics the way Americans watch the Superbowl; they imbibe it. It is the race for power that fascinates — perhaps because it’s a contest that truly draws blood, as scores of candidates, supporters, students, and others are murdered each year in political or quasi-political battles in the cities, in the countryside, and on university campuses.” It should be remembered that throughout history, few democracies ever evolved peacefully. American political history, for example, cannot be said to have been free of riots, arson and murders.

One important and unique aspect of Bangladeshi democracy has been the idea of a “caretaker government” run by the Supreme Court that takes power in the 90 days leading up to a general election. This helps insure that the balloting will be reasonably open and fair. Even with the “caretaker” governments in place, elections in Bangladesh have never been peaceful or free of voter fraud, but the concept has helped keep problems more or less under control.

The first example of a caretaker government took place in 1990 after the fall of Mohammad Ershad’s military dictatorship. The Chief Justice, Shahabuddin took power and afterwards the elections were won by the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) under Khaleda Zia, the widow of the assassinated BNP leader Ziaur Rahman.

Since then governments led by the BNP and the Awami league have followed each other in office. The transitions between have been smoothed by the Supreme Court’s “caretaker” role.

Now, however, the Awami League government lead by Sheikh Hasina (daughter of Bangladesh’s first president Mujibur Rahman who along with most of his family was assassinated in a 1975 military coup) wants to do away with the caretaker concept. If this change to the law goes through, it will make a difficult situation worse.

The losers in Bangladeshi elections have always had a hard time accepting their loss. Everyone in the country knows that a large number of votes were cast or counted using what Mexicans used to call “electoral magic”. This endangers the legitimacy of all elected governments. At least with a caretaker government in place the loser has the consolation, minor though it may be, of knowing that the winner was not in a position to cheat on a national basis.

Another problem is that politicians have played far too great a role in the way the Bangladeshi legal system works. Accusations of corruption are often made, Sheikh Hasina herself was indicted in 2007. Yet the prosecutors are rarely able to prove their case or to convict powerful political figures.

To make matters worse Sheikh Hasina’s government has chosen to establish a special tribunal to prosecute war crimes committed against Bangladeshi civilians during the 1971 War of Liberation. If this tribunal were founded on recognized international principles and its procedures were open and its members were known for their integrity and legal accomplishments, then no one would have any reason to complain. Unfortunately, what is happening looks like another case of a politicized show trial with the result predetermined to suit the needs of the ruling Awami League Party.

Officially called the International Crimes Tribunal, Bangladesh (ICT), this special court has been set up with the limited intent of prosecuting only those who were opposed to Bangladeshi independence; those who fought on the winning side are, under the rules of the ICT, immune from investigation or prosecution. The Awami League was 100 percent for independence, but the other parties in Bangladesh include some politicians who were against the War of Liberation as well as politicians who supported it and a few who were neutral right up until the Pakistani Army’s surrender on December 16, 1971. These last are known as the December 16th Division and include large numbers of civil servants, police officers and religious leaders.

The decision to set up the ICT looks like an all-out effort by the Awami League to tear the guts out of their opponents in the BNP and the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami. For the moment, the Jamaat seems to be promoting a uniquely Bengali version of Islamist ideology. One sign of this is the way that the law has been modified to prevent individuals being tried by the ICT from appealing to the Bangladesh Supreme Court.

Another sign that the ICT is less than legitimate under any reasonable understanding of judicial fairness is the fact that some judges were men who were associated with a set of highly political mock trials that were conducted as “street theater” in the 1990s, complete with the ceremonial burning in effigy of the accused. The overlap between what were literally show trials and the ICT has turned the entire exercise into a farce.

Unfortunately, the farce may turn deadly since a member of the Awami League government announced anonymously that the accused would be hanged on the highly symbolic date of December 16, 2012. This announcement was made before any of the accused had been convicted. If the quote is accurate, it perfectly demonstrates the purely political nature of the ICT.

To Americans and to the West in general, Bangladesh matters because since 1990 it has been an example of how a poor Muslim nation can maintain an imperfect, but vibrant and functional democracy. Unfortunately, the Awami League seems to be reverting to its political origins as an aspiring left-wing totalitarian party. Back in the 1970s when it was allied with the Soviet bloc, the Awami League announced that it wanted to set up a one-party system. For years, international observers had assumed that Sheikh Hasina and her supporters had long ago given up the goal of a one-party socialist state, but based on the evidence of the ICT and the abolition of the caretaker tradition, this assumption must be questioned.

While human rights activists will properly hold the Awami government and its members to account, US policy makers and diplomats must be cautious. 

There are no easy or happy answers, especially since the American government must take its relationship with India into consideration when it makes any move concerning Bangladesh. However, at the very least Washington will not be able to ignore the way the rule of law and the democratic process are being undermined by what it happening in this populous and culturally important Muslim nation.

First published in the Saudi Gazette, October 18, 2012

Taylor Dinerman is a freelance writer based in New York. He is currently senior editor to Gatestone Institute

Politician's disappearance fuels Bangladesh crisis

THE NIGHT watchman was dozing in a wooden chair just after midnight on a deserted Bangladeshi street when he was startled by a scream. A group of men were pulling two people from a car and forcing them into a black microbus; "The two guys were shouting, 'Save us,'" before the car pulled away, Lutfar Rahman said.

The abductions of an opposition politician and his driver last month have sparked Bangladesh's biggest crisis in years, raised hostilities between the most prominent leaders of its fragile democracy and highlighted a series of seemingly political disappearances.

The opposition has blamed the government, launched nationwide strikes and fought with police in street clashes that have killed five people and injured scores. Homemade bombs have exploded on the streets of Dhaka, including one inside a compound housing government ministries. The government has charged 44 top opposition leaders in connection with the violence.

On Wednesday, the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party and its 17 allies would demonstrate across the country to restart its paused protests.

No one has claimed responsibility for Elias Ali's abduction, and no ransom has been demanded, the usual practice of criminal gangs in Bangladesh.

Security forces told the High Court this week they had no role in Ali's disappearance, and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina accused the opposition of hiding Ali to create an excuse to cause mayhem.

Hasina, however, later pledged to do everything possible to find Ali, when his wife and children met her seeking her intervention.

"The conflict is pushing Bangladesh toward a dangerous situation," said Adilur Rahman, secretary of Odhikar, a rights group.

Hasina and her archrival Khaleda Zia have alternated in power since a pro-democracy movement ousted the last military regime in 1990. Zia leads Ali's Bangladesh Nationalist Party.

The abductions of Ali and his driver as they returned home from meeting supporters at a hotel April 17 also has highlighted an increasing number of disappearances that Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have blamed on security forces.

At least 22 people have disappeared this year, according to a local human-rights group, Ain-o-Salish Kendra. Odhikar reports that more than 50 people have disappeared since 2010. Many of the disappeared were politicians.

During her visit to Bangladesh last week, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton raised Ali's disappearance and the killing of labor leader Aminul Islam with the government, reflecting international concern over the issue.

Islam, who recently led a campaign for higher wages for the country's 3 million garment workers, was found dead along a highway April 5. His family blames the killing on law enforcement agencies.

Even before Ali's disappearance, tensions were high between Hasina and Zia over the conduct of the general election due in 2014.

Hasina has scrapped a constitutional provision requiring the government to step down before polls and transfer power to a neutral caretaker administration to oversee the voting within 90 days. The government says it acted to comply with a court ruling that the caretaker provision was undemocratic, but it means Hasina will be overseeing the next balloting.

Zia has refused to take part in any election overseen by Hasina, fearing fraud. The government says it is open to discuss alternatives, but the opposition says they will sit across the table only if the previous sytem will be restored. The government rejects that.

A similar dispute in 2006 prompted the powerful military to declare a state of emergency that remained until the 2008 election. Both Hasina and Zia were put behind bars during the emergency rule.

Many businessmen also were jailed pending tax evasion and fraud trials, and some fled to avoid arrest. But the cases were withdrawn or not heard when the political government took office.

"We don't want to return to any emergency rule," said A.K. Azad, president of the Federation of Bangladesh Commerce and Industry. "What we want is our leaders to work together so there is no more strikes and clashes."

Ali, 50, has lived dangerously since becoming a student at Dhaka University, considered a breeding ground of Bangladesh's politicians.

He was recruited into a student political group by the country's last military dictator Hussein Muhammad Ershad, according to friends. He then joined a group allied with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, sparking feuding and occasional gunfights among rival factions of Zia's party.

He was briefly arrested, later elected to Parliament and then swept out in 2008 by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's Awami League party.

The opposition, which suspended its street protests in a gesture of goodwill during Clinton's visit, has vowed to resume strikes if Ali is not found.

His family wonders if he is even alive.

"We have left his fate to Allah," said Ali's teenage son, Abrar Elias, "The Almighty is our last resort."

First published by Associated Press, published on May 09, 2012 by Fox News