Is Sheikh Hasina’s next destination Russia?

SALEEM SAMAD

Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus met with International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Karim Khan QC at the United Nations General Assembly in New York last week.

Taking to Twitter (X), Karim Khan QC said, “Common visions to strengthen ICC cooperation ensure accountability for crimes committed against the Rohingya.”

ICC in The Hague (Den Haag) is hearing the war crimes and ethnic cleansing committed by Myanmar troops against the Rohingya Muslims after they were declared illegal migrants from neighbouring Bangladesh and dubbed as Bengali (meaning they are not Myanmar nationals).

It is not known whether Yunus has discussed ICC’s support for strengthening the Bangladesh International Crimes Tribunal. The ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been implicated in ‘crimes against humanity’ for the deaths of more than a thousand students and protesters during the Monsoon Revolution in July and early August.

The Interim Government, led by micro-credit inventor Dr Yunus, told audiences in New York that he would like to see former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina be extradited and brought to justice “if she” has committed crimes.

“Why shouldn’t be? If she committed crimes, she should be extradited and brought to justice…She should be facing justice too,” he said while responding to a question at “The New York Times Climate Forward Event”.

Earlier, he reiterated to an Indian media that Delhi should deport Hasina to face the music of justice for the deaths of thousands of protesters in less than 35 days of the Monsoon Revolution.

The number of times Yunus mentions “extradition” of Hasina, South Block in New Delhi is having hiccups. The worrisome seasoned officials and politicians in Delhi have kept their lamps burning regarding the future status of Hasina living in exile at a Safe House at Ghaziabad Hindon Air Base near Delhi.

A high-profile defence correspondent in Delhi said she is in a safe house for security reasons. Indian Intel believes that she has external threats and is forced to live in seclusion.

She is living incommunicado at the air base and unable to meet her daughter Saima Wazed, who has been the South East Asian regional director for the World Health Organisation since 1 November 2023 and is based in New Delhi.

Saima, in her tweet, admitted that she wanted to hug her beloved mother but was unable to do so due to preoccupation and hectic conferences in the South East Asian region. Does anybody believe her excuse?

Similarly, her son Sajeeb Wazed Joy, despite his best intention to meet his beleaguered mother in Delhi, has not been given diplomatic clearance to arrive in Delhi.

None of the ruling BJP politicians or officials of the Indian government has paid courtesy calls to Hasina, except for Ajit Doval, National Security Advisor of India. He was at the air base when she arrived in Delhi.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is yet to meet her. External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, while briefing the all-party meeting, said, “We received a request for a short stay.”

Ousted Hasina has always given the impression that China, Russia and of course India are ‘all-weather friends’ of Bangladesh.

The three countries have always lent their shoulders to Hasina, despite appalling human rights records, fraudulent elections in 2014, 2018 and 2024, money laundering, bank loot, poor accountability of elected rogue politicians and politicisation of democratic institutions.

The time-tested friends unfortunately did not react to the autocratic regime. Delhi, Beijing and Moscow’s silence encouraged Hasina to become an iron lady – a Frankenstein. She has brutally cracked down on opposition, dissidents, critics, journalists and even netizens.

Now that her long stay in India is likely to dent its bilateral, regional and global relationship, Delhi has to find a reasonable argument for not extraditing Hasina to Bangladesh authorities for her trial.

Delhi knows very well that if Hasina faces a politically motivated trial for the deaths of students, the court will hand down the death penalty. The Interim Government will not take any risk in keeping her alive.

However, the trial is not expected soon. The Yunus administration will wait until United Nations Human Rights Commission Chief Volker Türk, who took responsibility for deploying an UN team of experts to probe into the killing of the protesters during the “student revolution”, gets the report from the team.

Bangladesh will have to wait for the UN fact-finding mission to submit its report to begin the much-talked-about trial.

It is very rare for China to give shelter to exiled leaders from other countries. Then it leaves with two other “all-weather friends” – India and Russia.

With Dr Yunus’s hectic parleys with world leaders at UNGA, India read the pulse that it would be difficult to provide a credible excuse not to extradite Hasina.

Thus the best alternative would be to send her to Russia, where she will be safe and secure, several officials of the Indian National Security Council (NSC), who are privy to the issue, have confided with this journalist.

Russia has a history of ignoring international calls for extradition. For India, it will be difficult to absorb diplomatic and international pressure. So the only country for Hasina to live happily ever after would be Russia.

Well, when did Hasina live in Russia? It would be extremely difficult to determine the time. However, the NSC officials guess that the balls will begin to roll when Bangladesh will officially seek her extradition.

A top official in the Chief Advisor’s Office, who declined to be quoted, said it would be too early to comment on what Bangladesh should do if Hasina is shifted to Russia.

First published in the Northeast News, Guwahati, India on 30 September 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Indeed a diplomatic blunder for PM Modi, if he ignores Yunus in New York

SALEEM SAMAD

Bangladesh diplomatic channels have requested India for a sideline meeting between Dr Muhammad Yunus, Chief Adviser of Bangladesh Interim Government, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the upcoming United National General Assembly (UNGA) next week in New York.

Prestigious Indian newspaper Hindustan Times reported that PM Modi is not expected to meet Yunus on the UNGA sidelines, which both leaders are set to attend.

There may be more than one reason why Modi would shrug his shoulder in despise Yunus for his comments on Bangladesh-India relations in a recent interview have not gone down well in New Delhi.

Political observers state that Yunus should find an opportunity to meet Modi on the margins of UNGA to update on the bilateral relationship between the two neighbouring countries.

The two leaders had a telephone dialogue on 16 August, a week after the Nobel laureate Dr Yunus took oath as head of the Interim Government. Modi reiterated India’s support for a democratic, stable, peaceful and progressive Bangladesh.

Modi also urged Yunus for the safety and security of the “Hindus and all other minority communities” in Bangladesh.

The two leaders spoke for the first time in the backdrop of the fast-moving developments in the neighbouring country, which earlier this month witnessed the dramatic removal of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the subsequent internal political turbulence.

Several journalists based in Delhi quoting insiders in South Block that Modi will have a packed schedule for his three-day visit to the United States, as he is set to attend the Quad Leaders’ Summit in Wilmington, Delaware, on 21 September and address the Summit of the Future at the UN General Assembly on 23 September.

However, sources in the South Block said such a meeting is not part of the Indian side’s agenda. A meeting with the head of Bangladesh’s interim government isn’t on the schedule,” one source told Hindustan Times.

In a press interview, Yunus, the inventor of micro-credit and women’s empowerment, which helped several million women to escape from the cycle of poverty in rural Bangladesh, criticized former premier Sheikh Hasina for commenting on developments in Bangladesh while in exile in India.

He did not hesitate to suggest that Bangladesh could seek her extradition and said India should move beyond the “narrative” that every political party other than Hasina’s Awami League is “Islamist”.

Meanwhile, Touhid Hossain, the de facto foreign minister and other advisers of the Interim Government, have repeatedly raked up the possibility of seeking the extradition of Hasina, who fled to India after her autocratic regime collapsed on 5 August.

Hossain went a step forward and said that if Delhi is stubborn on the issue of deportation, it would create an “embarrassing situation for the Indian government”.

The External Affairs Ministry has refused to be drawn out on any possible Bangladeshi request for her extradition, describing it as a hypothetical matter.

The Iron Lady of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina landed at an air force base in Delhi and is living in a safe house, literally in seclusion. She was unable to meet her daughter Saima Wazed, Regional Director of the World Health Organisation South-East Asia Region based in New Delhi. Her brother Sajeeb Wazed failed to get clearance from the Delhi administration to fly from Washington DC to meet her mother living incommunicado with her sister Sheikh Rehana.

India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar told the Indian parliament that “At very short notice, Sheikh Hasina requested approval to come, for a short term to India, following an unprecedented political upheaval in Bangladesh.”

Some academicians said it would be another diplomatic blunder of Delhi’s South Block if a dialogue is not held at the soonest between the two leaders.

Modi does not know the immediate plan of Hasina’s stay for a number of days in India. Most importantly he does not know what to tell Yunus, who will press him for the extradition of Hasina to face the music of justice for the deaths of hundreds of students and protesters and their bloods spilt in the streets.

She is also blamed for enforced disappearances, extra-judicial deaths and confinement of her opposition and critics in secret prisons.

There is no doubt that she knew very well of the horizontal and vertical corruption, bank loot, money laundering, and second home of most lawmakers, Awami League senior leaders, bureaucrats, and law enforcement officers. She deliberately did not crack down on rogue elements.

It is feared that if Bangladesh officially demands her extradition, she may be moved to Russia, an anti-west where she can live happily ever after.

First published in the Northeast News portal, Guwahati, India on 21 September 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Indo-Bangladesh Relations: Continuous Consolidation

S. BINODKUMAR SINGH

On January 28, 2013, Bangladesh Home Minister Muhiuddin Khan Alamgir and his Indian counterpart Union Home Minister (UHM) Sushil Kumar Shinde signed a landmark Extradition Treaty at Dhaka, the Bangladesh capital, to combat terrorism and facilitate suppression of crime by making further provision for the reciprocal extradition of offenders. Significantly, however, Article 6 of the Treaty says that "it would not be applicable in case the offence is of a political character."

Earlier, as a precedent, the two countries had signed the Agreements on Mutual Legal Assistance on Criminal Matters, Transfer of Sentenced Persons and Combating International Terrorism, Organized Crime and Illicit Drug Trafficking, during Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's visit to New Delhi between January 10 and 13, 2010.

In the intervening time, to reduce the incidents of border killings and smuggling of arms and drugs, human trafficking and other illegal activities along the Indo-Bangladesh border, Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) and India's Border Security Force (BSF) on March 13, 2012, started "coordinated patrolling" and "night coordinated patrolling" at 120 border points selected by two different teams of the BGB and the BSF under the India-Bangladesh Coordinated Border Management Plan (CBMP), which had been jointly signed on July 30, 2011, at Dhaka.

Notably, since the Sheikh Hasina led Awami League (AL) Government (it is in alliance with five other parties) came to power in Bangladesh in January 2009, the state initiated a decisive campaign against radical forces on the domestic front, and also acted relentlessly against various militant formations operating in India's North East, which had long been sheltered on Bangladeshi soil. Since Hasina assumed power, security cooperation between Bangladesh and India has been dramatic, resulting in the arrest of some of the top northeast insurgent leaders by Indian Security Forces after they were 'pushed back' into India. Prominent among those held in Bangladesh and 'handed over' to India were: All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) 'chairman' Ranjit Debbarma (January 23, 2013); Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) 'Chairman' Champion R. Sangma (July 30, 2012); United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) 'captain' Antu Chaudang and 'second lieutenant' Pradeep Chetia (February 5, 2011); United National Liberation Front (UNLF) 'chairman' R. K. Meghen alias Sanayaima (November 30,2010); Anti-talks faction of National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) 'chief' Ranjan Daimary alias D R Nabla (May 1, 2010); ULFA 'chairman' Arabinda Rajkhowa alias Rajiv Rajkonwar' and 'deputy commander-in-chief' Raju Baruah (December 4, 2009); ULFA 'foreign secretary' Sashadhar Choudhury and 'finance secretary' Chitraban Hazarika (November 4, 2009).

India has also been requesting Bangladesh to hand over Anup Chetia alias Golap Barua, 'general secretary' of the ULFA, who was arrested in Dhaka along with two other ULFA militants on December 21, 1997, for illegally carrying foreign currencies and a satellite phone, and was sentenced to 10 years in prison. Even after spending more than 15 years in various prisons the Bangladesh, he continues to remain behind bars. However, despite the fresh Extradition Treaty, Bangladesh Home Minister Muhiuddin Khan Alamgir on January 28, 2013, stated that Bangladesh would not be able to send back Anup Chetia under the treaty as he had prayed for political asylum in the Supreme Court, adding, "The Supreme Court will first have to dispose of his prayer for political asylum. After that, we will decide whether to treat this person or any other persons under this extradition treaty or in some other way."

Other North East militant leaders on Bangladeshi soil, whose expatriation India seeks, include National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) leaders Bishwamohan Debarman and Subir Debbarma, and NDFB leader Thulunga alias Tensu Narzary.

Bangladesh has unambiguously demonstrated its will to end the operation of Northeast Indian terrorist and insurgent groupings from its soil. Nevertheless, Indian intelligence inputs suggest that at least 55 camps of NE militants continue to operate in Bangladesh, and there is certainly some unfinished business at hand.

Similarly, Dhaka has been demanding that India arrest and hand over Bangladesh's founding father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman's two convicted killers, Abdul Mazed and Moslehuddin Khan (who were at the rank of Captain and Risaldar, respectively, at the time of the assassination), and are believed to be hiding in India.

In addition, there are several other criminals operating with impunity across the Indo-Bangladesh border, and the Extradition Treaty should help the two countries break this criminal nexus. 

As cooperation on the security front strengthened, the resultant increase in trust has led to positive developments on other issues of bilateral concern as well, despite hurdles. These include the historic agreement signed on September 6, 2011, during Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Dhaka, to settle land boundary issues, including the exchange of 162 'enclaves' which are in 'adverse possession'. Though the Teesta Water Sharing Deal, could not be concluded because of last-minute objections raised by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee on the draft of the agreement, India's Water Resources Minister Harish Rawat, on November 7, 2012, during a meeting with visiting Bangladesh Agriculture Minister Motia Chowdhury at New Delhi, expressed interest in inking a provisional Teesta Water Sharing Agreement, until a permanent settlement was found.

On July 3, 2012, moreover, Dhaka gave its letter of consent for the renewal of Transit and Transshipment Rights to India, for the continuation of transshipment of bulk cargoes, with retrospective effect from April 1, 2012 to March 31, 2014. The PIWTT, which was renewed annually till then (July 3, 2012), as was agreed in the Protocol on Inland Water Transit and Trade (PIWTT, 1972), was suspended on October 26, 2011, after Dhaka refused to issue the letter of consent because of the failure to reach an agreement on the Teesta Deal.

In addition, following up on the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on India-Bangladesh Energy Cooperation signed on September 6, 2011, at Dhaka, the first Joint Working Group (JWG) meeting on renewable energy was held in New Delhi on August 3, 2012, where Bangladesh and India briefed each other on the present status and growth potential of renewable energy. Similarly, a high-level Indian delegation led by Power Secretary P. Uma Shankar visited Dhaka on January 29, 2013, to sign a deal for the proposed 1,320 megawatt coal-fired power plant at Rampal in the Bagerhat District of Khulna Division in Bangladesh, and the purchase of power by Bangladesh from India.

Significantly, at the time of the signing of the Extradition Treaty, the two sides also inked a liberalized visa agreement, the Revised Travel Arrangement (RTA), to remove restrictions on visits of businesspersons, students, patients, senior citizens above 65 years and children below 12 years.

Conspicuously, Indo-Bangladesh relations have witnessed a strong positive surge since 2009, and this has had a transformatory impact on the trajectory of terrorism and extremism in both the countries, visibly improving the general security environment in the region, and creating a strong foundation of trust. Much, however, remains to be done and, in this, India needs to be the more proactive, both because it is by far the larger partner, and also because Dhaka appears to have done much more in the recent past than Delhi.

This equation becomes the more crucial as Bangladesh approaches another General Election in which the present Opposition, backed by a very substantial radicalized constituency, will attempt to cast improving relations with India as a 'betrayal' of Bangladeshi interests. As disruptive political mobilization in Bangladesh - of which significant evidence is already visible - gathers force in the run up to the Elections, it will require dramatic and demonstrable successes in the delivery of quantifiable benefits to Dhaka, both to consolidate the relationship and, crucially, to diminish the impact of vicious propaganda that could, otherwise, jeopardize the remarkable gains of the past four years.

Original article published in SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW, Weekly Assessments & Briefings, Volume 11, No. 31, February 4, 2013

S. Binodkumar Singh is Research Associate with Institute for Conflict Management

India’s Growing Ties with Bangladesh

SANJAY KUMAR

WHILE INDIA’s relationship with its western neighbor Pakistan has been faltering despite concerted efforts, on the eastern front a new bonhomie is forming with Bangladesh.

The recent signing of a new extradition treaty and visa regime between India and Bangladesh, signed by Indian home minister Sushil Kumar Shinde and his Bangladeshi counterpart Mohiuddin Khan Alamgir, marks a major shift in their relationship.  India has long demanded an extradition treaty with Bangladesh, which was not forthcoming due to an adversarial relationship with the previous regime in Dhaka.

With the treaty, New Delhi has gained a way to clamp down on insurgency in the northeastern region of the country, long a hotbed for separatist and insurgent groups who mostly operate from Bangladesh and other neighboring countries.

It is believed that senior leaders from the outlawed United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and other underground groups are hiding in Bangladesh. The new treaty will allow India to deport them.

Bangladesh also stands to benefit, with India pledging to track down the two convicted killers of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who are believed to be hiding in India.

Likewise, the new liberalized visa regime is a boon for Bangladesh. According to the Times of India, the new regime allows for the provision of multiple entry tourist and medical visas valid up to a year, five-year business visas, and other categories.

While both countries largely stand to benefit from the agreement, the issue of illegal immigration is a sticking point. With a porous, shared border more than 4000 kilometers long, many poor Bangladeshis illegally enter India to find work. The new visa regime addresses this issue to an extent. Some analysts say that the issue cannot be handled comprehensively unless New Delhi issues permits to Bangladeshi migrant laborers.

The India-Bangladesh relationship has been on the upswing since Sheikh Hasina came to power in 2009. The improved relations are largely due to her efforts to stamp out anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh.

Along with greater cooperation, economic activity between the two nations has increased. In 2011, India pledged to invest U.S. $1 billion to build infrastructure in Bangladesh.

While the new extradition and visa agreement and stronger economic ties are a clear marker of progress, there is also a good deal of unfinished business between the two countries.

For one, India has not yet signed the Teesta Water Teaty, which will give Bangladesh access to the Teesta River that flows from India.

Meanwhile, India is waiting for Bangladesh to grant transit access to its landlocked northeastern states bordered by Bangladesh.

According to analysts, as the biggest country in South Asia, India is keen to engage its neighbor in a bid to neutralize China’s growing influence there. To do so, New Delhi must give more economic leverage to Bangladesh and allow Bangladesh to have a bigger share of India’s growing economic success.

Greater concessions from India would also boost Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s popularity, offsetting criticism leveled at her by opposition groups.

Political analysts say the extradition treaty and new visa regime are intended to give the Awami League leader a much needed political makeover before next year’s election.

The arrangement also suits India’s new foreign policy vision, which is based on greater economic engagement with its neighbors.

India has struggled to maintain smooth relations with its neighbors. In the case of Pakistan, it has stepped up economic engagement but made little political progress. By contrast, India’s slowly growing ties with Bangladesh have given its Look East Policy a boost and could be the start of renewed progress.

First appeared in The Diplomat, February 1, 2013