Who committed ethnic cleansing in Kashmir?

Kashmiris take cover as Indian security forces (unseen) fire teargas shells during clashes, after scrapping of the special constitutional status for Kashmir by the Indian government, in Srinagar, August 30, 2019. Photo: REUTERS

SALEEM SAMAD

Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan claims India's move to end the special status enjoyed by Kashmir by scrapping Article 370 was motivated by a 'Hindu supremacist version of Hitler's Lebensraum.'

For the sake of argument, if I agree to his argument, has he not been responsible for the violence which has significantly changed the Valley's demography? Pakistan has been aiding and abetting the jihadists responsible for terror in Kashmir.

Let's not forget that from the summer of 1989 until the winter of 1990, Kashmir witnessed a grotesque and bloody ethnic cleansing. Islamic militants operating in the Kashmir Valley sent a very dark, chilling message to non-Muslims in the region.

In effect, their warning said: "We order you to leave Kashmir immediately; otherwise your children will be harmed. We are not scaring you but this land is only for Muslims and is the land of Allah. Sikhs and Hindus cannot stay here. If you do not obey, we will start with your children. Zindabad Kashmir Liberation!"

SUCH sermons delivered from the pulpits, radical Islamists encouraged Muslims to take up arms and drive out the "Kafirs," the non-believers. The mosques in the Valley – roughly 1100 of them – blared their hate-filled, inflammatory speeches through their loudspeakers. "Islam is our objective, the Quran is our constitution, jihad is the way of our life," they called out.

The scary part was that they did not hesitate to issue warnings to the non-Muslims: "If you want to live in Kashmir, you must convert to Islam."

Spineless newspapers in Kashmir, published "press releases" funded by terror networks called on all Muslims to wage their Jihad against India.

On 14 April 1990, Al Safa, a local Urdu language daily, published a "press release" from Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, warning all non-Muslims to "leave Kashmir within 36 hours or face our bullets."

Hours after the deadline was over, the Jihadists launched a systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing. Armed with Kalashnikov-AK47s, they patrolled the streets shouting slogans: "Oh Kafirs! Leave our Kashmir"; "From East to West, there will be an Islamic Ummah" They desecrated Hindu temples and vandalized several places of worship.

In the darkness of night, Hindu families were terrorized: men were dragged from their homes and shot dead. They were systematically targeted for their faith, which was not Islam.

The terror campaign claimed perhaps 60,000 lives, according to Amy Waldman of the New York Times.

Over half-a-million Hindu Pandits fled the Valley. This mass exodus caused a dramatic shift in Kashmir Valley's demography. Today, only a few thousand Hindus are left there.

Three Jihadi terror outfits - Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) – launched these attacks. They are Pakistan's proxies – "strategic assets," as the Pakistani military calls them. They were created, financed and trained by Pakistan's dreaded ISI.

After the expulsion of Kashmir's Pandits, the ISI operated 30 training camps in Pakistan for Kashmiri militants in 1990; by 2002, that number had ballooned to 128 camps training one thousand militants a year.

Unfortunately, the atrocities perpetrated by Pakistan backed Jihadist groups on Kashmiri pandits did not lead to global condemnation--- until many years later.

With Modi's revocation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, troll armies are drawing comparisons between Kashmir and Palestine; the world's media are busy painting a narrative presenting "blood brothers" India and Israel as "invaders," "occupiers," and "colonizers."

Hussain Haqqani, Pakistan's former Ambassador to the United States, stated that Pakistan supports terrorism.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has warned, "Pakistan must not provide a safe-haven for terrorists to threaten international security," as it is currently doing. Some of the world's most wanted terrorists - such as Hafiz Saeed, Maulana Masood Azhar, Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh – find a warm home in Pakistan and are consistently protected by the ISI.

Ironically, it is Imran Khan, who in a recent tweet, has expressed his concern over "impending genocide of Kashmiris" alleging that the there is an "attempt to change the demography of Kashmir through ethnic cleansing."

First published in the Bangla Tribune, 09 September 2019

Saleem Samad, is a journalist, media rights defender also recipient of Ashoka Fellow (USA) and Hellman-Hammett Award. Twitter @saleemsamad; Email: saleemsamad@hotmail.com

Victims of abduction in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Kashmir, Sri Lanka, Nepal & Ugyhur

Women shout slogans during a protest following restrictions after the government scrapped the special constitutional status for Kashmir, in Srinagar August 14, 2019. Photo: REUTERS

SALEEM SAMAD

As the world observes the International Day of the Victims of Enforced Disappearances on Aug 30, another hundred or more people will be abducted silently by state security agencies globally.

Their relatives will hold portraits of disappeared family members and call upon governments to stop such abductions, and seek accountability for the enforced disappearances, killings, and abductions, in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Kashmir, Sri Lanka, Palestine and elsewhere.

Families cry for answers on International Day of the Victims of Enforced Disappearances on August 30, a day declared by the United Nations.

Since its inception in 1980, the UN Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances has registered 56,363 cases across 112 countries — but thousands of other cases were simply not reported!

Unfortunately, governments are often reluctant to respond. Besides, security agencies engaged in enforced disappearances, while non-state actors also settle their scores in muddy waters. They enjoy their impunity as they rub shoulders with the mighty in the corridors of power.

The impunity is extended to these forces, often because their crimes against humanity may have had government sanction.

The legal explanation does not, however, convey the horror families endure as they try and grapple with the enforced disappearance of a loved one.

Meenakshi Ganguly, South Asia director of Human Rights Watch says, under international human rights law, an enforced disappearance occurs when a person is taken into custody by government officials or their agents and the state refuses to acknowledge the person’s fate or whereabouts, placing the victim outside the protection of the law.

In South Asia, the recent history of violent conflicts ------ whether the war in Afghanistan; insurgencies in Balochistan, Pakistan or Kashmir, India; the civil war in Sri Lanka and Nepal; or political violence in Bangladesh and the Maldives------ has witnessed serious human rights violations including secret detentions and enforced disappearance, states the New York-based Human Rights Watch.

Bangladesh authorities have traditionally trashed allegations of the disappearances even after the security forces have taken someone away in front of witnesses. Instead, the agencies claim that the ‘disappeared’ are hiding to evade banks loans or are felons dodging arrest.

In Indian administered Kashmir, they use the shocking word ‘half widow,’ for women whose husbands are missing.

In Kashmir, hundreds of unidentified foreign jihadists are buried in unmarked graves, but the government is yet to order forensic tests to determine whether the remains of "disappeared" Kashmiris also lie buried in those graveyards.

In Sri Lanka, families of the tens of thousands of people who disappeared during the three-decade-long bitter ethnic civil war are camped in street corner protests. The war ended in 2009, and these families are still hoping that their loved ones will be found.

In Nepal, a Commission of Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons received nearly 3,100 complaints but failed to explain the causes and origin of the scary social phenomenon experienced so widely during the country’s ten-year civil war.

The victims experience egregious form of human rights violation, removed from legal protections, remaining at the mercy of their captors, at severe risk of torture or inhumane treatment, and of extrajudicial killings, says Meenakshi Ganguly.

"The families of missing ones spend the rest of their lives waiting for their loved ones to return home, or at least be told where they are buried. This is a severe form of psychological torture," said Leonce Byimana, a psychologist and Executive Director of TASSC, a US-based Torture Abolition and Survivors Support Coalition.

On this International Day of the Victims of Enforced Disappearances, human rights leaders will be speaking on behalf of missing loved ones---- for the Sindhis in Pakistan, the Kurds in the Middle East, the Tamils in Sri Lanka and Uyghur Muslims in China at the National Press Club in Washington DC.

Sufi Laghari, Executive Director of the Washington DC-based Sindhi Foundation also coordinating the Washington Press Club event, said: "We want people to understand how governments carry out enforced disappearances to silence their dissidents."

Until their whereabouts are determined, families of the disappeared should have access to effective remedies and reparations, including regular updates on the status of the investigations. This cruelty needs to stop.

First published in the Bangla Tribune, 30 August 2019

Saleem Samad, is a journalist, media rights defender, also recipient of Ashoka Fellow (USA) and Hellman-Hammett Award. Twitter @saleemsamad; Email: saleemsamad@hotmail.com

Baloch, Sindh, Pashtun nationalist dreams shattered after the arrest of Bangabandhu

SALEEM SAMAD

While living in exile in Canada during the ultra-rightist government of Khaleda Zia and later 1/11 military-backed caretaker government in Bangladesh, I was curiously exploring the political agendas of the nationalist organizations spearheaded by Pakistan born Sindhi, Baloch, and Kashmiri leaders who were living in exile in the US and Canada.

In 2005, I was first invited by the Sindh Foundation, and again by Baloch International in 2007 in Washington DC. I also attended the World Sindhi Institute conference in Toronto, Canada in 2006.

I was requested to speak out about the genocide, war crimes, and rape committed by marauding Pakistan military in collaboration with their henchmen Jamaat-e-Islami during the brutal birth of Bangladesh in 1971.

I deliberately took opportunities to participate in several protest rallies, mostly organized by Free Balochistan, United Kashmir, and Free Sindh movements in Washington DC, New York, and Toronto and spoke on atrocities committed by the Pakistan army. The rallies were told that the Pakistan army was committing atrocities in Balochistan similar to the ones experienced in Bangladesh.

The thousands of Baloch nationalist leaders and activists living in North America and Europe dream to regain the independence of Balochistan, which they lost in March 1948 after the Pakistan army invaded the princely Kalat State and acceded the country. Balochistan became the largest province of Pakistan with rich mineral resources.

My story is centered on an elderly person, Rasool Bux Palijo, a Sindhi nationalist and a renowned lawyer. He was introduced to me in 2005 by my friend Munawar Laghari, founder of Sindh Foundation in Washington DC.

Rasool Bux Palijo was Pakistan’s Marxist leader, scholar, and writer. He was a leading human-rights lawyer and was the founder and chairman of Awami Tahreek, a progressive leftist party.

He and his party Awami Tahreek played a crucial role against the “illegal Pakistan Army crackdown” in Bangladesh and also in Balochistan.

Politician Rasool Bux Palijo dashed from Karachi to Dhanmondi Road 32 to hold crucial parleys with Bangabandhu during post-1970 elections. He stayed for two weeks in Dhaka and met the acclaimed leader Sheikh Mujib. 

Bangabandhu passed extremely busy hours with party meetings and political leaders visiting the crowded residence overlooking Dhanmondi Lake. Palijo took the opportunity to talk to Bangabandhu during his break for tea, lunch, and dinner, at what is today Bangabandhu Bhaban.

After having words from Bangabandhu that he would ensure the political rights in the framework of provincial autonomy, based on the six-point mandate, he and others returned to Karachi with satisfaction to achieve political autonomy in the Sindh region.

In January 1972, the popular Sindhi leftist leader wrote his first-ever book on Bangladesh war crimes and organized a peasant protest in Sindh for the freedom of his political comrade Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, also demanding trial of military officials accused of war crimes.

Another regional party Jeay Sindh, founded by charismatic leader GM Syed, was a nationalist political party in the Sindh province of Pakistan, demanding freedom of Sindhudesh from Pakistan.

Sindhudesh is an idea of a separate homeland for Sindhis who lived in the Indus basin centuries before Alexander the Great invaded Sindh in 326 BC.

The Sindhi nationalist dreamed of the creation of a Sindhi state, which would be either autonomous within Pakistan or independent from it. GM Syed’s movement collapsed after the bloody War of Independence of Bangladesh.

Bangladesh independence architect Sheikh Mujib promised the Baloch, Sindh, and Pashtun nationalist leaders that he would ensure their political autonomy if only he could lay his hands on the government after the 1970 elections.

Unfortunately, the Pakistan junta betrayed Bangabandhu and the dreams of Balochis, Sindhis, and Pasthuns were shattered after the “Operation Searchlight” crackdown. What followed were his subsequent arbitrary arrests and detention in Mianwali prison in Pakistan throughout the 1971 Liberation War.

Both GM Syed and Rasool Bux Palijo were imprisoned and tortured in 1971 for extending political support to Bangabandhu. Both Sindh nationalist leaders died, leaving behind a tumultuous political legacy for Sindh.

GM Syed was posthumously conferred a “Friends of Liberation War Honour” by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a recognition for his role in the independence of Bangladesh. Several other Baloch and Pasthuns leaders were also honored for their contribution in 1971.

The new generation of Balochi, Sindhi, and Pasthun nationalists still admire Sheikh Mujib as a “role model” but regret that he could not be their savior.

First published in the Dhaka Tribune, 26 August 2019

Saleem Samad, is an independent journalist, media rights defender, also recipient of Ashoka Fellow (USA) and Hellman-Hammett Award. Twitter @saleemsamad

Why Rohingyas decline to return to Myanmar?

Rohingya refugees, who crossed the border from Myanmar two days before, walk after they received permission from the Bangladeshi army to continue on to the refugee camps, in Palang Khali, near Cox`s Bazar, Bangladesh Oct 19, 2017. REUTERS

SALEEM SAMAD

The first step was to develop confidence-building measures among the refugees. The Myanmar government should have invited a delegation of refugee leaders along with Bangladesh officials to visit the strife-torn Rakhine State.

As feared, the Rohingya refugees refused to return to Myanmar, despite all arrangements made for them to go back, as finalized by two neighbouring countries.

The second attempt in ten months to repatriate the Muslim refugees living in Bangladesh to Myanmar has fallen flat. It is understood that they would not return unless their demands were met by the Myanmar government.

Nearly two years after thousands of Rohingyas were forced to flee from Rakhine State, Myanmar enlisted 3,450 as genuine refugees for repatriation on August 22. But Most feared reprisals and refused to return. A similarly botched effort last November to ensure their return sowed confusion in the refugee camps and sparked protests.

On August 25, 2017,  Myanmar security forces began an ethnic cleansing that drove an estimated one million Rohingya to neighbouring Bangladesh.

The refugees have information that an estimated 500,000 Rohingyas who remained in Rakhine State are living in appalling conditions and Myanmar security forces have confined them to camps and villages, severely restricting their freedom of movement.

For those Rohingyas confined in several hamlets, the authorities have denied freedom of movement, deprived their access to sustainable livelihoods and basic humanitarian services including adequate food, medical care, and education. These facts have raised alarm among the refugees here.

Moments after the botched attempt, Bangladesh Foreign Minister Dr AK Momen explained that the refugees eligible for repatriation declined to return to Rakhine State as they did not feel secure and safe.

Bangladesh, aspiring to attain the middle-income threshold by 2021, had been generous with a million Rohingyas –  authorities felt the refugee should not be compelled to return to their villages that were not safe.

He lamented that the Myanmar government had the larger responsibility to be proactive in their political commitment to ensure voluntary, safe, and dignified repatriation of Rohingyas languishing in the world's largest refugee camps in Cox's Bazar.

The senior-most Bangladesh official in charge of foreign affairs spelled out two pressing issues, which needed immediate administrative attention.

Second, Bangladesh was planning to set up an International Commission on Rohingya Refugees with members drawn from different countries, maybe also from international organizations.

However, Dr Momen was hopeful in that Myanmar had twice implemented the provisions of the memoranda of understanding (MoU) to repatriate Rohingya refugees in 1993 and 1988.

Accordingly, on 19 December 1993, an Operational Plan for mass repatriation was presented by the UNHCR, facilitating the voluntary repatriation of approximately 190,000 refugees.

From the second refugee influx, in December 1998, over 229,000 refugees had officially returned. But the story of Rohingyas was not over; the cycle of the exodus had not ended.

Aljazeera TV alleged that international media, rights groups, and United Nations were not allowed to visit Rakhine State, especially to the villages from where the Rohingyas were forced to flee in the wake of genocide.

New York-based Human Rights Watch argues that their repatriation carries possible risks exposing refugees to ethnic violence.

A United Nations-backed Fact-Finding Mission found sufficient negative information to warrant the investigation and prosecution of senior military officials for grave crimes, including genocide, in Rakhine State.

The international rights group claimed that the Myanmar regime had not made any effort to probe widespread crime against humanity against the Rohingyas.

The regime also obstructed international efforts to investigate the ethnic cleansing of Rohingya Muslims to protect their basic rights, facilitate international justice for victims, and ensure that any returns of Rohingya refugees were voluntary, safe, and dignified.

Meantime, there is no light at the end of the tunnel for the crisis as yet.

First published in the Bangla Tribune, 24 August 2019

Saleem Samad is a journalist, a media rights defender and recipient of Ashoka Fellow (USA) and Hellman-Hammett Award. Twitter @saleemsamad; Email: saleemsamad@hotmail.com

Mock Fight: Over J&K Between India And Pakistan

SALEEM SAMAD

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government made moves to end the special status of Jammu and Kashmir under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution and bifurcate the state into two Union Territories.
The decision left Pakistan unnerved and Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan launched an all-out campaign against India. Khan's first axe fell upon downgrading diplomatic relations and suspension of bilateral trade with India, sent out emissaries to the United Nations, China and to Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to muster support against India.

Jammu and Kashmir (J-K), a landlocked disputed territory in South Asia was the reason for several wars and border skirmishes between India and Pakistan since the birth of two newly independent nations in 1947. The war was fought between India and Pakistan over the princely state of J-K from 1947 to 1948. It was the first of four Indo-Pakistan Wars fought between the two neighbors. Unfortunately, both countries claim J-K as their integral territory.

Well, not an outrageous claim, but ignoring J-K was once an independent princely state and British colonialist had given respect to the status of self-rule.

In 1846, after the Sikh defeat in the First Anglo-Sikh War, and upon the purchase of the region from the British under the Treaty of Amritsar, the Raja of Jammu, Gulab Singh, became the new ruler of Kashmir. In October of 1947, the Pashtun tribal militants surprise raid in a bid to occupy the picturesque valley of the Muslim majority Kashmir, backed by not so organized Pakistan Army to occupy the territory on the excuse of much-disputed "two-nation theory" which divided India into Muslim and Hindu nations through a bloodletting partition and mass exodus.

Maharaja Hari Singh appealed to the Indian government for military assistance and fled to India. On January 1, 1949, a ceasefire was agreed, with 65 percent of the territory under Indian control and the remainder with Pakistan. In 1957, Kashmir was formally incorporated into the Indian Union.
It was granted special status under Article 370 of India's Constitution, which ensures, among other things, that Indians Nationals cannot buy property there. The signing of the Instrument of Accession, ceding Kashmir in Jammu on October 26 and was accepted by India's last Governor-General Lord Mountbatten on October 27, 1947.

Since the Accession Day, the Kashmiri separatists observe the date as Black Day. Every year on that particular date, intermittent clashes with security forces are a regular phenomenon.

On the other hand, hell broke loose in Islamabad! The bad news came from the OIC, which called for resolving Kashmir issue through bilateral negotiations after Pakistan sought its support over Article 370. The OIC did not hesitate to state that "following a request from the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, an urgent meeting of the OIC Contact Group" on 6 August 2019 to review the recent developments in Jammu and Kashmir.

In the concluding statement, the OIC raised concerns about "gross human rights violations in Jammu and Kashmir" but called for a "negotiated settlement" through talks between the two countries.
However, Pakistan's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Maleeha Lodhi appeal found no weight in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) with its president Joanna Wronecka refusing to make any comments. Pakistan's heightened campaign equally failed and gets cold feet at the United Nations. The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in response to Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi's complaints reminded him of the Shimla Agreement 1972.

The historic Agreement, signed after Pakistan's humiliation defeat in 1971 war which created an independent Bangladesh, the states that India and Pakistan will settle all their issues through peaceful talks bilaterally. Another blow came from the Taliban, which was considered a stooge of Pakistan Army, rebuked Pakistan over the abrogation of special status to J&K. Its spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahed said, "Linking the issue of Kashmir with that of Afghanistan by some parties will not aid in improving the crisis at hand because the issue of Afghanistan is not related."

Recently, Shah Mehmood Qureshi flew to Beijing holding talks with Chinese leaders including Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.  After the meet, China issued a statement which dashed the hopes of Qureshi that its all-weather friend would stand by Pakistan more strongly. The Chinese statement says, "The Kashmir issue is a dispute left from colonial history. It should be properly and peacefully resolved based on the UN Charter, relevant UN Security Council resolutions and bilateral agreement."
China, of course, reacted strongly to the Modi government's move on Jammu and Kashmir but issued a guarded statement. Its response was limited to Ladakh being made a Union Territory. China has laid claim on Ladakh ever since it captured Aksai Chin in 1962 war. Their concern was regarding Modi government's move to declare Ladakh as Union Territory.

In bitter frustration of getting rebuked from International Forums, Shah Mehmood Qureshi has asked Pakistanis to not live in a "fool's paradise" by expecting United Nations Security Council to "wait with garlands" to support Islamabad's contentions regarding India's decision to abrogate Kashmir's special status.
Qureshi's comment came a day after Russia becomes the first P-5 member to support India over the abrogation of Article 370. The United Arab Emirates - UAE, a major ally of Saudi Arabia has reacted to the developments in South Asia, calling for restraint over the Kashmir dispute.

For both nuke-armed countries, the Kashmir conflict is the water-security issue and the growing populations their livelihood depends on the Indus River basin. The basin's four main rivers flow into Pakistan (60%), and in India (20%). Both the countries have constructed several mega irrigation and hydro-electric projects on the rivers and tributaries of the basin. Notwithstanding of crisis of Kashmir, neither India will give up J-K to Pakistan and equally it is true that Pakistan doesn't have much firepower to take Kashmir from India.

Given the strategic gap between Indian and Pakistan, The Pakistani Army is in no position to undertake any adventure against India, especially at a time when Pakistan is going through an acute economic crisis. Any further burden on the exchequer would cripple the economy of Pakistan.  There is also widespread speculation that Pakistan Army doesn't have an appetite to take a risk, at this time, with a puppet government. If there is any misery, the Pak army would not be able to shift the blame on a civilian government.

First published in The New Nation, August 16, 2019

Saleem Samad, an independent journalist, recipient of Ashoka Fellow (USA) and Hellman-Hammett Award. Twitter @saleemsamad; Email: saleemsamad@hotmail.com

Where have the Hindus population gone?

A Hindu woman show an item from her family temple was damaged by militant Muslims - Photo:  Mahmud Hossain Opu

SALEEM SAMAD

Secularist Shahriar Kabir, Muntassir Mamoon, Prof Syed Anwar Hossain, Prof Imtiaz Ahmed, Prof Ameena Mohsin, Prof CR Abrar, Robaet Ferdous, and many others often contest the concept of “minority” as used by politicians, law-makers, bureaucrats, and policymakers.

They ask -- who is a “minority” in Bangladesh?

Imtiaz Ahmed and Amena Mohsin argued that the rule of “majoritarian” is in three segments. First, Bangalis are the majority in Bangladesh; second, they are Muslim in the majority, and third, they are by default bonded with Bangali nationalism.

The triple majority gives them a culturally homogenous population.

In this formulation, the political elites chose the dominant/majority community as a model of the nation, while the minority/weaker communities were expected to assimilate themselves with the “mainstream,” ie the dominant majority community, writes Prof Amena Mohsin.

Apparently, Bengal spearheaded racial politics, which ultimately led to the birth of Pakistan. All-India Muslim League was born in 1906 in Dhaka, and leaders from Bengal proposed the controversial two-nations theory, separate homeland for Indian Muslims.

The two-nation theory of Muhammad Ali Jinnah tore the Bangali community apart amongst Hindu and Muslim in 1947. The rest is history.

In the year 1946, 1947, 1992, and 2001, there was widespread racial violence which resulted in countless deaths and also triggered forced migration from both India and then East Pakistan.

Days after Khaleda Zia’s dramatic return to power after the general elections on October 1, the untold persecution of Hindu voters, as well as armed attacks on Awami League voters, raged throughout the country.

Filmmaker and journalist Shahriar Kabir had documented the persecution in several volumes and produced documentary films on the reign of terror unleashed by Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) henchmen and its alliance of Islamist parties.

Similarly, the AL government after a judicial inquiry into the violence during post-October 1 elections also published volumes of narratives of persecution -- mostly Hindus and AL’s local leaders and voters.

Abul Barakat, a renowned economist and professor of Dhaka University, predicts that in the next 30 years, there will be no Hindus living in this country. 

To establish his research, he claims that an average of 632 Hindus left the country each day and 230,612 annually.

Afsan Chowdhury, a liberation war historian and an academic explains “low-intensity violence” against religious and ethnic minorities caused forced migration.

In an article, “Disasters: Issues and Responses, in Philip Gain (ed) Bangladesh Environment: Facing the 21st Century,” published in 1988 by Society for Environment and Human Development (SEHD), that the independence of Bangladesh has not brought much peace for Hindus who numbered about 10 million in Bangladesh.

Lack of socio-economic opportunities, low-intensity hostility at all socio-economic levels including the state, and greater opportunities across the border are the push-pull factors which have led to Hindus crossing through the porous border every day, writes Afsan Chowdhury.

The researcher further states that the Hindus are passing through a disaster situation as their life, property, and peace have all been made to feel insecure by the lack of security, and existing state policies and public action, which are forcing them to escape to another land, another society.

The declaration of Islam as the state religion may not have many institutional or formal ramifications, but it has made the minorities in Bangladesh distant from the core of the state. 

This illustrates how low-intensity violence against minorities can push millions into a state of silent disaster.

Mohiuddin Ahmad, a writer, and researcher in an article in Weekly Holiday published on January 7, 1994, writes that the first census (1974) of independent Bangladesh registered the population of Hindus to be 13.5% of the total population. 

This proportion dropped down to 12.1% in 1981 and 10.5% in 1991, while the proportion of Buddhists and Christians remained stable. The Muslim population, however, increased from 85.4% in 1974 to 88.3% in 1991.

He argues that the Hindu population cannot wither away. In demographic terms, the situation has to be addressed using relevant parameters of fertility, morality, growth rate, and migration.

Nearly 78 years ago in 1941, 28.3% of the total population was comprised of minorities.

The population of Hindus was 11.88 million. Despite the population growth, the present Hindu population stands at around 12 million.

If the normal increase rate prevailed, the number of the Hindu community in this country would have been 32.5 million, but the Hindu population in Bangladesh stood at 12.5 million in the 1991 census. Therefore, the missing population is 20 million or more by now.

First published in the Dhaka Tribune, 28 July 2019

Saleem Samad is an Ashoka Fellow, recipient of Hellman-Hammett Award, a freelance journalist, and media rights defender.

Who will protect the Rohingya children?

Rohingyas crossing over to Bangladesh after Rohingya insurgent attacks on Myanmar security forces in August 2017 triggered a sweeping military crackdown Mahmud Hossain Opu /Dhaka Tribune

SALEEM SAMAD

They are particularly vulnerable to violence and exploitation.

Bangladesh is often mentioned as a lighthouse of sustainable development -- women’s empowerment, primary education, child immunization, primary health care in remote villages are all achievements in Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).

With each year, the not-so-poor country has added one feather after another in its hat offered by UN development bodies and international development organizations.

Despite the desired achievements, the government believes that more needs to be done. New strategies are developed with the support of international development partners to enable the hard-to-reach population in remote areas, especially in hill districts and haors (wetlands).

Unicef, in its annual report released early July, argues that it encourages the government to monitor child poverty and enact social and economic policies for greater social protection.

The most challenging tasks for Unicef and the government are to ensure education, shelter, basic health care, care for newborn infants and mothers, and child development, especially for the almost million Rohingya refugees who have fled to Bangladesh.

Among the Rohingya refugees, almost 60% are children. They have brought with them stories of unspeakable violence and brutality that had forced them to flee. Rohingya children are caught up in the violence in Myanmar.

Fortunately, Unicef is on the ground, working with the government and international partners, helping to deliver life-saving supplies and services for Rohingya child refugees in Bangladesh. By April 2019, around 910,000 Rohingya had settled in Cox’s Bazar, thus making it the world’s largest refugee camp.

The Rohingya crisis has grievously affected the children. With the support of the Bangladesh government and humanitarian partners, refugees have gained access to some basic services. But they remain highly dependent on short-term aid, and are living in unspeakable conditions, particularly in nauseating camps, where living conditions are difficult and sometimes dangerous -- especially during Bangladesh’s long monsoon and cyclone seasons.

In Myanmar, most Rohingya have no legal identity or citizenship. Inside the country, Rohingya children are hemmed in by violence, forced displacement, and restrictions on freedom of movement.

In Bangladesh, Rohingya children are not being registered at birth. Lacking a legal identity, they are unable to secure refugee status, one of the first tools for protecting children’s rights and safety.

Until the conditions are in place in Myanmar that would allow Rohingya families to return home with basic rights, safety from violence, free movement, health care, and education, they are stuck in Bangladesh.

Meanwhile, children are unable to follow a formal national education curriculum, being deprived of the skills they so desperately need, if they are to develop and thrive in the future.

On the other hand, older children and adolescents in refugee camps who are deprived of opportunities to learn or make a living are at real risk of becoming a “lost generation” -- ready prey to traffickers and those who would exploit them for political or other ends.

Girls and women are at particular risk of sexual and other gender-based violence in this situation, including being forced into early marriage and being left out of school, as parents keep them at home.

A strong commitment to protecting children against violence is clearly reflected in the SDGs. Children uprooted by conflict and disaster continue to face heightened risks of violence, child labour, and exploitation.

To achieve international goals -- and protect millions of children around the world -- it is imperative to speed up the pace of progress. Indeed, a sense of urgency is required if the child protection targets in the SDGs are to be reached by the 2030 deadline.

First published in the Dhaka Tribune, 21 July 2019

Saleem Samad, is an independent journalist, media rights defender, recipient of Ashoka Fellow (USA) and Hellman-Hammett Award. Twitter @saleemsamad, Email

China’s neo economic imperialism shackles small countries who can never repay

SALEEM SAMAD

Communist China for decades used to air propaganda on its state radio that the United States, Japan, Britain, European countries are economic imperialists, warmongers and backs autocratic regimes in the third world countries.

The political economists and several think-tanks argue that China has become an economic giant and definitely a new superpower.

There are reasons to be concerned about the dramatic rise of China as a military power in the Asia-Pacific region.

A British popular tabloid newspaper The Sun claims that China is "colonizing" smaller countries by lending them massive amounts of money, which they can never repay.

Developing countries from Pakistan to Djibouti, the Maldives to Fiji, all owe huge amounts to China. Countries around the world owe huge sums to China and have fallen into debt-trap.

Some think-tanks are calling it "debt-trap diplomacy" or "debt colonialism" offering enticing loans to countries unable to repay, and then demanding concessions when they default.

Alarm bells are ringing for Pakistan’s public debt is piling up, while a new narrative taking shape in the West that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is creating a debt trap for developing economies, many are quick to link Pakistan’s ballooning debt to loans incurred under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

The BRI flagship project in Pakistan fails to address the participation of the fiercely independent Baloch people, which has scaled up armed insurrections in Balochistan. Time will explain whether the full utilization of Gwadar Port built by Chinese will be feasible.

Very recently, Rhodium Group, a US-based research organization, reviewed 40 cases of China’s external debt renegotiations.

It was found that defaulters are being pressured into surrendering control of assets or allowing military bases on their land.

Sri Lanka is the best example of being riddled with debt. Owing more than $1billion in debts to China seized control of Hambantota port for use by companies owned by the Chinese government on a 99-year lease.

The Sun article alleges that the defaulters have been pressured into surrendering assets and territory or allowing military bases on their land, thus increases its military footprint in the region. There is only one other reported case of asset seizure from Tajikistan in 2011.

Meanwhile, the United States is desperate to stop the Doraleh Container Terminal in Djibouti falling into Chinese hands, particularly because it sits next to China's only overseas military base.

Incidentally, Djibouti is home to the US military’s main base in Africa, also looks likely to cede control of a port terminal to a Beijing-linked firm.

A report from The Center for Global Development, a Washington DC-based is a nonpartisan, nonprofit think-tank offers some insight into the spreading China debt.

China, the neo-economic imperialist.Researches exemplify how infrastructure project loans to Mongolia, Montenegro, and Laos have resulted in millions or even billions in debts, which often account for huge percentages of the countries' GDPs.

Well, most of the projects are linked to the BRI and undertake work on roads and ports with part-funding from China, a bold project to create trade routes through huge swathes of Eurasia, with China at the center.

China economic empire is visible in the Pacific region, prompting fears the country intends to leverage the debt to expand its military footprint into the South Pacific.

Australia expressed alarm at this move, which would effectively increase Chinese military presence on a key gateway to Australia’s east coast.

Sydney’s Lowy Institute think-tank, which has closely monitored China’s activities in the Pacific, estimates Beijing has poured nearly $ 1.74 billion into Pacific countries since 2006.

Among the projects this money funded was the largest wharf in the South Pacific - considered capable of accommodating aircraft carriers.

China approached Vanuatu about setting up a military base. The country owes $238.32 million to China.

Tonga also carries some big debts and has already admitted to struggling with repayments.

Other big debtors include Papua New Guinea, which owes roughly $621.30 million in development and aid debt, Fiji, which owes $606.23 million, and Samoa, with a debt of  $225.77 million.

China defended its lending practices, saying they were "sincere and unselfish", and insisting it only lent to countries that could repay.

First published in the Bangla Tribune news portal on 20 July 2019

Saleem Samad, is a journalist, recipient of Ashoka Fellow (USA) and Hellman-Hammett Award, also Bangladesh correspondent of Paris based international media rights organization, Reporters Without Borders (RSF). Twitter @saleemsamad; Email: saleemsamad@hotmail.com

Bangladesh Press Freedom Situation 2019

Where political conditions were unsettled, toll on journalism is heavy

Saleem Samad

In its annual press freedom index, Reporters Without Borders or Reporters Sans Frontières (RSF) has dropped Bangladesh to 150th out of 180 countries, unfortunately lowest among South Asian nations.

In Bangladesh, the space to exercise freedom of speech is shrinking day by day. Even though the constitution guarantees freedom of expression, the authorities deliberately ignore it.

Despite several appeals from the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, the United States, the European Union, and journalists within Bangladesh to repeal and revise the notorious Digital Security Act to comply with international human rights law, the government has continued to use the law to silence criticism. Journalists are under immense pressure to self-censor or risk arrest.

In an unprecedented show of solidarity, on October 15, 2018, editors of all the major dailies in Bangladesh formed a human chain in front of the National Press Club in Dhaka. They took to the streets demanding amendments to a new law, the Digital Security Act 2018, which was passed by the parliament on September 19, 2018.

The censorship in Bangladesh has reached a stifling high. Activist and acclaimed photographer Shahidul Alam spent over 100 days in jail for spreading “propaganda through social media” under Bangladesh’s draconian Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Act, after he criticized the government’s violent crackdown on student protesters. Other journalists attempting to report on the same protests were beaten with machetes and metal pipes by supporters of the ruling Awami League while police stood by. And dozens more have been arrested under the ICT Act and it’s even more repressive successor, the Digital Security Act, writes Brad Adams of New York based Human Rights Watch.

Self-censorship is growing in Bangladesh’s media as a result of the endemic violence against journalists and media houses, coupled with the widespread impunity enjoyed by the perpetrators of these crimes, argues International Federation of Journalists (IFJ).

Last month, the National Telecommunication Monitoring Centre blocked access to Al Jazeera after the news agency published a report citing allegations against Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s security advisor.

In February, the government blocked nearly 20,000 websites in what was described as an “anti-pornography” sweep, but which included somewhereinblog.net, a popular blogging site that serves as a platform for 250,000 registered bloggers, Bangla Google Books, and popular social media apps, TikTok and Bigo.

Notwithstanding Bangladesh’s Information Minister Hasan Mahmud disputed RSF’s report findings, saying there is “no censorship on news.” But he failed to contest the rampant “self-censorship” in private televisions, daily newspapers and news portals.

London based another media rights organization, Article 19 in its annual report stated that the trend of journalist violence has changed in Bangladesh in the past few years. For instance there were 31 defamation cases, 71 cases brought under section 57 of ICT Act (Digital Security Act) 2018, and 9 illegal arrest warrant and 20 more different types of legal harassment occurred in the year.

Two journalists were murdered in 2018.

Suborna Nodi, 32, the Pabna correspondent for Ananda TV and a journalist for the Daily Jagroto Bangla newspaper, was hacked to death at the door of her home on August 28.

Shahjahan Bachchu, acting editor of weekly Amader Bikrampur, become the victim of a horrific killing in Munshiganj district on June 11.

Freedom of the press remains imperiled as violence against journalists continues to spike in the country, according to a report of local rights group Ain O Shalish Kendro (ASK), released on January 10, 2019.

“As many as 207 journalists have been harassed from January 1 to December 31, a steep climb from 122 in 2017 and 117 in 2016,” the organization reported.

At least 61 journalists were assaulted by members of the ruling party or its wing organizations and 42 journalists were victims of bomb attacks.

Another 18 journalists were harassed by law enforcement agencies, with 11 others receiving threats from purported ruling party members, government officials, and anonymous callers.

Moreover, publication of 15 news reports led to lawsuits being filed. Nine journalists were assaulted by government officials. Three journalists were killed and at least one went missing.

The International Federation of Journalists - IFJ 2019 Report argued that the situation in Bangladesh is as bad. Journalists and other activists are threatened with arrests and detentions for the comments they make online.

Internet shutdowns are becoming increasingly common in South Asia – especially in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. The economic cost for total internet shutdown for Bangladesh it is USD 63 million, for 24 hours for Pakistan is equivalent to USD 65 million and a whopping USD 1 billion for India.

Saleem Samad, is an Ashoka Fellow (USA), recipient of Hellman-Hammett Award and also Bangladesh correspondent of Paris based international media rights organization, Reporters Without Borders (RSF)

Twitter @saleemsamad; email

More people-to-people contact between two neighbours Bangladesh - India would allay misconception

For a greater understanding
More people-to-people contact between India and Bangladesh would go a long way in allaying the misconceptions that many in Assam harbour against Bangladeshi migrants.

NAVA THAKURIA

Bangladesh, Assam, border terrorism, NRC, West Bengal, Digital Security Act, Mamata Banerjee, Bangladeshi migrants

People from Bangladesh are often perceived as trouble makers and unwanted guests in Northeastern states, especially Assam. One of the Bangladesh-bordering states (apart from West Bengal, Meghalaya and Tripura), Assam has witnessed a massive uprising against illegal migrants from that country and its implications are still visible.

But lately, India and Bangladesh have reached a steady bilateral relationship after many decades of diplomatic hiccups. The governments in New Delhi and Dhaka now regularly share common issues in an atmosphere of confidence and friendship. The mutual trust has been further heightened after resolving half-a-century- old border demarcation disputes. Duty-free trade, joint venture infrastructure projects, commerce, tourism, visa regime, communication through road, rail, river and air were a few areas of discussion between both nations. The talks on sharing of water from 56 international rivers are also in progress.

With authentic intelligence sharing by both New Delhi and Dhaka, cross-border terrorism has reduced to a great extent. At least the rigorous crackdowns on separatist militants hailing from Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya and Tripura by various Bangladeshi government agencies have made the country almost free from those armed leaders and their cadres.

Interacting with a group of Guwahati- based scribes through video conferencing from Dhaka recently, senior Bangladeshi journalist and political commentator Saleem Samad said that there should not be any North-eastern separatist leader running their militant camps from Bangladesh. Many leaders including United Liberation Front of Assam president Arabinda Rajkhowa were silently handed over to Indian agencies by Dhaka in the recent past.

“Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is committed to making Bangladesh free from cross-border terrorism. Because of Dhaka’s relentless crackdown on terrorism, the North-eastern militants have fled the country. Many of the separatist leaders were pushed back into India. The only fugitive on the run is Paresh Barua (supreme leader of Ulfa-Independent), who also faces capital punishment in Bangladesh,” said Samad.

The special correspondent at the Asian Age, published from Dhaka, also insisted that New Delhi should officially acknowledge efforts of the Hasina government, which has led to a significant decrease of budget for the five-decade-long anti-insurgency operation and deployment of law-enforcing agencies in the various troubled North-eastern localities. The anti-insurgency budget can now be diverted to infrastructure development, human development and industrial parks in the region.

A keen observer of socio-political situations in South Asia and a regular contributor to different Indian media outlets, Samad, however, admitted that the recent rise of Islamist extremism has been posing a serious threat to his Muslim majority country along with its neighbouring Indian states like West Bengal, Assam and Tripura. He narrated how secularist bloggers and LGBT activists are increasingly becoming the target of radicalised Muslims forces in the populous country, which has otherwise slowly, but steadily marched on the path of becoming a country of one nationality (Bangladeshi), one language (Bangla) and one religion (Sunni Muslim).

Citing how a network of Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh was busted in West Bengal few years ago, Samad urged the North-eastern region to remain alert about jihadi elements after the ongoing crackdown on Islamist forces. He revealed that thousands of Bangladeshi youths had joined various militia groups in Syria, Iraq, Chechnya, Indonesia, Philippines, Afghanistan, and Pakistan et al to fight alongside the jihadis there. He also expressed concern over the new Digital Security Act 2018, which has already come under fire from journalists, including editors, rights defenders and anti-corruption advocates. International rights watchdogs have condemned the draconian law, which looks to criminalise freedom of press, speech and expression in that country.

Claiming that no visiting Indian political leader had ever spoken about illegal Bangladeshi migrants in India during parleys with their Bangladeshi counterparts, Samad pointed out that for the people of Bangladesh the issue of the National Register of Citizens updation in Assam remains an internal affair of India. “Though Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee made a hue and cry about the Assam NRC draft, Bangladeshi politicians and the civil society are still reluctant to comment on the sensitive matter. Even Dhaka-based media outlets had little coverage about the process and its larger implications,” said Samad.

It may be noted that Banerjee termed the massive citizenship scanning process in Assam, which is being monitored by the Supreme Court of India, as anti-Bengali but her views were not endorsed by anybody in Assam including those Bengali-speaking inhabitants in the Barak valley. Assam chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal termed the release of the NRC draft as historic.

He expressed his heartfelt appreciation and gratitude to the Supreme Court, congratulated the 55,000 government officials engaged in the process and the people living across the Barak and Brahmaputra valleys, plains and hills of the state. It may be noted here that the first NRC in India was prepared in 1951 following a census the same year. Assam has been preparing a new NRC following the direction of the apex court of the country. Earlier, the first NRC draft in Assam was released on 31 December 2017.

The background for the NRC is traced to the Assam Accord, which was signed in 1985 by the Centre with leaders of Assam movement. The historic memorandum of understanding, signed by leaders of All Assam Students Union and Gana Sangram Parishad in presence of then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi drew the curtain on the six-year-long Assam agitation that erupted in 1979. The Accord reposed responsibility on New Delhi to detect and deport all migrants (read East Pakistani and Bangladeshi nationals), who entered Assam after the midnight of 24 March 1971. In other words, the agitating leaders agreed to accept all residents of Assam prior to the dateline as Indian nationals.

One can see that the influx of millions of illegal Bangladeshis is a vital socio-political issue for Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Meghalaya and Manipur. The region shares an international border of 5,182 km (about 99 percent of its total geographical boundary) with Tibet (now under China), Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and Bangladesh. Its border with Bangladesh is as long as 1,596 km. During the interaction, Samad strongly advocated more people-to-people contact between Assam and Bangladesh.

He even lamented how the state had missed the bus despite being so closely located, while other states like Bengal and Tripura launched multiple projects to improve rail, road and river connectivity with Bangladesh. Stressing on regular direct bus and air links between Guwahati and Dhaka, the Bangladeshi journalist said that improved trade and commerce along with cultural ties would help in erasing many misconceptions and suspicions prevailing on both sides. He also claimed more students and patients would move from both sides and that would obviously boost tourism.

First published in The Statesman, Kolkata on 15 October 2018

Nava Thakuria is the Guwahati-based Special Representative of The Statesman.

Rise of extremism in Bangladesh may affect NE Indian states: Bangladeshi journalist

IANS  |  Guwahati:

The rise of Islamist extremism in Bangladesh poses a serious threat not only to the religious minorities, secularists, intellectuals and other sects within the Muslim community, but also to India's northeastern states, says prominent Bangladesh-based journalist, Saleem Samad.

He was speaking to a group of journalists at Guwahati Press Club from Dhaka through video-conferencing on Friday evening.

An Ashoka Fellow and Hellman-Hammett Award recipient, Samad said an upsurge of fundamentalist forces in Bangladesh may affect Indian states that share the border with the country.

He said atheist and secularist bloggers are increasingly becoming the target of the Islamic extremists in Bangladesh.

He said other minority sects within the Muslim community such as the Ahmadiyyas also face threats of survival in Bangladesh due to the rise of Islamic extremism in the country.

He said thousands of Bangladeshi youths had joined various militia groups in Syria, Iraq, Chechnya, Indonesia, the Philippines, Afghanistan and Pakistan to fight alongside the jihadists there.

The senior journalist reiterated that currently there is no northeastern separatist leader in Bangladesh as the Sheikh Hasina government in Dhaka continues a rigorous crackdown on fundamentalist outfits.

A champion for media rights, Samad painted a dismal picture of press freedom in Bangladesh as journalists are frequently targeted by both state and non-State actors. He regretted that though 26 Bangladeshi journalists lost their lives to assailants since 1991, most cases remain unsolved.

Replying to questions about infiltration from Bangladesh to Assam, Samad said that none of the Indian leaders visiting Dhaka ever took up the issue of illegal Bangladeshi infiltrators in Assam with their counterparts.

Strongly advocating people-to-people contact between Assam (India) and Bangladesh, Samad lamented how Assam had missed the bus despite being so closely located, while other states such as West Bengal and Tripura were taking several steps to improve connectivity with Bangladesh via railway and roadways.

Emphasizing direct air connectivity between Guwahati and Dhaka, Samad said that trade and commerce along with cultural ties would help in erasing many misconceptions prevailing on both sides.

-IANS
First published in the Business Standard on 6 October 2018

Black Friday: A year ago ISIS militants deadly seize

Photo: Smiling five militants posted in ISIS online

The country's past as a recruitment hotbed for global Islamist jihad returns to haunt its future as it grapples with a new wave of terror

SALEEM SAMAD

Bangladesh is still coming to grips with the exceptional brutality of its worst terrorist outrage, the horrific Black Friday attack at Dhaka's Holey Artisan cafe on July 1. Twenty hostages, including 18 foreign nationals and two policemen, were killed when the six terrorists, said to be an IS-affiliated group, took them hostage. Indian teenager, Tarishi Jain, was among those who were shot, had their throats slit and bodies mutilated.

Five of the six terrorists were shot dead after security forces stormed the cafe following a 10-hour standoff. The sixth survived and is being interrogated by security forces.

What has shocked Bangladeshis is the profile of the terrorists. Mostly in their early 20s, they were products of the country's upper middle class elite (one was the son of a senior member of the ruling Awami League party. Some are even believed to have been regulars at the two-storeyed cafe located in Dhaka's upscale Gulshan area.

The attack marked the debut of what has been the prototype home-grown terrorist in recent times, well-educated and well-versed in using social media tools, fitting the cosmopolitan profile terrorist outfits like Al Qaeda and IS have used in recent terror attacks from Paris to Istanbul. "Gone are the madrasa recruits from the impoverished rural countryside," says Humayun Kabir, senior research director at the Dhaka-based think-tank, Bangladesh Enterprise Institute.

The attack was the culmination of a wave of atrocities by unidentified machete-wielding assailants against the country's religious minorities. Hindus, Buddhists and Christians priests, bloggers, writers, publishers and moderate Muslims. Islamic extremists have killed over 40 people in such attacks since 2013. Over 16,000 people were arrested in a crackdown in June this year but clearly it was a little too late.

Typically, the government's response has been one of disbelief. "Anyone who believes in religion cannot do such an act," Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina said on July 2. "They do not have any religion. Their only religion is terrorism."

A day after the attack, IS posted photographs showing five of the youth posing in front of the group's black flags, claiming credit for the attack. Bangladesh officials, however, are still calling it the work of local militants.

If Black Friday exposed the chinks in the country's security system, it also exposed the government's refusal to recognise the Muslim radicals in their midst. "Hasina used to scoff at claims of homegrown Islamist terrorists linked to the global terror network," says columnist Syed Badrul Ahsan. "She blamed opposition leader Khaleda Zia for harbouring terrorists."

Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal had termed the spate of killings over the past year as isolated incidents. He clearly had no inkling of what was coming. "It was a time bomb waiting to explode," says liberation war veteran Sachin Karmaker.

Bangladesh's history of state-backed radicalisation dates back to the late 1970s and can be traced specifically to the close ties between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami whose leaders had participated in the genocide of 1971.

In the 1980s, 8,000 Bangladeshi youth, many of them left and socialist-leaning, volunteered to fight for the Palestine Liberation Organisation, a year after Yasser Arafat visited Dhaka to a warm welcome from media and political circles. Most of them returned home after the defeat and expulsion from Lebanon in 1982. Soon after 9/11, over a thousand Bangladeshi nationals who had joined the Taliban, fled to Pakistan when the American coalition invaded Afghanistan. Since then, Bangladesh has been convulsed with the attempts of the Afghan veterans to launch a jihad in their native country.

Counter-terrorism security agencies have had some success in the past, which the present Hasina regime, in power since 2008, has had too, dismantling some terror cells. The Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) spilled over into the neighbouring Indian states of West Bengal and Assam. Since then, possibly with the full knowledge of domestic security agencies, hundreds of Bangladeshi fighters, most of them poor rural youth, have joined secret wars in 36 countries, from Chechnya in Russia to Aceh in Indonesia.

The new phase of Bangladesh's war with itself began in the wave of the recent machete attacks. In most cases, the purpose of the attacks and the identities of the perpetrators remain a mystery. An international outcry forced the government to respond by banning a dozen Islamist outfits, including the Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), believed to be behind the blogger attacks. However, the fact is that both the Hasina and earlier Khaleda Zia governments have harboured Islamist groups at some point and refrained from antagonising the clerics. Both have also backed off from implementing policies like women's empowerment and a national education policy (religious parties call it anti-Islamic).

Counter-terrorism specialists say Bangladesh is unprepared for this new form of terrorism. Online recruiters use social media to recruit their targets. Sleeper cells in the heart of the cities and towns run on small budgets, secret safehouses hide would-be jihadists while the familiarisation and adaptation jigs are on. Recruiters spend cash to procure weapons and bombs from gun-runners. It's during the internship that the future jihadists carry out the hit-and-run machete attacks. The reward for a good performance is a promotion to the sleeper cells, explains Kabir.

An unknown number of militants have escaped police dragnets to join IS in Syria and Iraq. The Bangladesh Counter-Terrorism and Intelligence Bureau, a CIA-trained outfit, does not know the exact number as yet. It does not know how many may have travelled to the terror hotspots to join IS . It does not know how many have returned either. Just as it doesn't know how many attackers like the Black Friday six are waiting to strike.

First published in India Today magazine, July 7, 2016

Saleem Samad, an Ashoka Fellow (USA), is an award winning investigative journalists and Special Correspondent of The Asian Age, published from Dhaka, Bangladesh