Pakistan Drowning in Debts and Floods

SALEEM SAMAD

Pakistan in the immediate past has experienced three major crises. – two of which were caused by natural hazards — the 2005 earthquake, which impacted 3.5 million people and the 2010 floods which affected more than 20 million people.

Pakistan is at a critical economic juncture. The new coalition regime of the Muslim League and Pakistan Peoples Party which is struggling to stabilize the economy is already facing the daunting task of managing a faltering economy with huge deficits.

After two years of the pandemic, the economy is in the red zone, marked by rising external debt, higher inflation, and large-scale unemployment.

The floods that occurred from the torrential monsoon deluge added fresh challenges to Shahbaz Sharif’s government in the economic crisis, which he inherited from the cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan, who failed the nation.

The floods are not only to be blamed for climate change disaster, but it is a failure of governance on multiple levels, including deliberate neglect of Baloch, Sindhi and other ethnic and linguistic communities in Pakistan.

The devastating floods which engulfed one-third of the country have counted unofficial deaths and missing over 1500, mostly children, caused forced displacement to 33 million, and dented livelihoods.

In addition, the floods eroded a million houses and damaged around 2 million acres of crops (an estimated 45 per cent) of cultivable land in Sindh, South Punjab and Balochistan, triggering alarm bells for looming food shortage.

The floods will leave behind a trail of loss of huge livestock, the output of cotton, rice and maize crops too and also feared that the sowing of sugarcane and wheat will also take a hit.

In fact, Pakistan in the immediate past has experienced three major crises. While the nature and scale of these crises were different, two of them were caused by natural hazards — the 2005 earthquake, which impacted 3.5 million people and the 2010 floods which affected more than 20 million people.

Pakistan produces less than 1 per cent of global carbon emissions and for the past 20 years, it has ranked in the Global Climate Risk Index as among the top ten most vulnerable countries.

It could be argued that the damage caused by both disasters is the outcome of climate change as well as the politically inspired development policies of the regime in Islamabad.

The picture looks dismal of the human development index of 2021, where Pakistan plummeted to 161, which is worse than that of India (132), Bangladesh (129), and Sri Lanka (73).

Decades of neglect of Sindh and Balochistan for their defiance against Rawalpindi GHQ have irked the regime in reasonable allocation for comprehensive infrastructure development and holistic human development projects, such as investing in primary education and healthcare.

As many as 10 million Pakistanis have been pushed into poverty. An estimated 46 per cent of the population (over 80 million) was already below the poverty line, which is likely to increase due to adverse impacts of the pandemic.

The colossal loss to the economy due to devastating floods has been estimated at US$10 billion. The country’s external debts and payments make it impossible for the cash-starved government to focus on relief and rehabilitation of its affected people.

Islamabad in rapid damage control efforts, to recover from the looming economic crisis increased the prices of oil, gas, and electricity tariff. The worst scenario is drastic cuts in social expenditures have pushed millions of working-class millions into yet another struggle for survival.

In an attempt to further save from drowning, the government imposed budget cuts, withdrawal of subsidies from food, fertilisers and fuel; wage bill cuts and at a crucial moment when disadvantaged populations are in greater need of public support.

Pakistan is among the 52 countries facing a severe debt crisis. The most critical problem faced by the country’s economy is repayment and servicing of its external debt, around $38 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and other international financial institutions.

Well, the IMF has projected Pakistan’s external debt to reach $138.568 billion in 2022-23 up from $129.574 billion in 2021-22.

Central bank foreign currency reserves have fallen to nearly $10 billion, barely enough to cover a few weeks of imports.

The trajectory of debt is expected to continue to decline to 70.4 per cent of GDP by the end-fiscal year 2026, supported by a favourable interest rate-growth differential outlook, and fiscal adjustment efforts in the context of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), a lending facility of the Fund of the IMF.

After weeks of negotiations with Islamabad in August, IMF has agreed to revive a bailout package for Pakistan to about $4.2 billion, which will relieve from the brink of a payment crisis.

Let’s not forget that Pakistan needs at least $41 billion in the next 12 months to repay debt and fund imports, according to a Bloomberg news agency report. It includes payments for $19.4 billion to the IMF, the World Bank, ADB and China.

Analysts saw the deal as crucial for Sharif’s coalition government, which came to power in April at a crucial juncture of two years of standstill during the pandemic, writes Ayaz Gul for Voice of America (VOA).

“The Agreement with the Fund [IMF] has set the stage to bring the country out of economic difficulties,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wrote in a tweet.

Earlier, in April 2020, the IMF had approved $1.4 billion in emergency financing for Pakistan under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) to help the country deal with the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Despite an appeal by the prime minister of Pakistan to the international community for comprehensive debt relief, Unfortunately, Pakistan obtained temporary debt relief worth $1.8 billion from the members of G-20 nations.

Several international anti-debt groups recommended immediate cancellation of the debt as a minimum demand since Pakistan is unable to repay its loans and these floods have worsened the condition of the country’s economy.

This demand has a legitimate legal argument based on international law, which calls for debt payment suspension on the grounds of necessity and fundamental change of circumstances, says the anti-debt groups.

First published in International Affairs Review portal, 20 September 2022

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist and columnist based in Bangladesh, a media rights defender. Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. Twitter: @saleemsamad

Why the idea of a unified struggle with Pakistan’s exiled political leaders failed in 1971

SALEEM SAMAD

In December 1971, when the Mukti Bahini guerrillas and the Indian army captured large chunks of occupied Bangladesh, the government-in-exile in Kolkata and Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi were having sleepless nights.

At the fag-end of the Liberation War, a senior leader -- Abdus Samad Azad -- took charge of the ministry of foreign affairs from Khondaker Mostaq Ahmad.

In London on December 16, 1971, the Bangladesh foreign minister organized a top-secret meeting of exiled political leaders from Sindh, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly North-West Frontier Province -- NWFP) in Pakistan. Azad was not sure what the outcome of the secret meeting would be. The Pakistani leaders were living in exile to escape the wrath of the military junta in the Rawalpindi military headquarters.

The victims were mostly politicians of ethnic sub-nationalities from the minority provinces in Pakistan, and progressive left intellectuals who dared to raise their voices in favour of handing over power to the Awami League, the unconditional release of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the safe return of refugees from India, and the withdrawal of troops from the eastern front.

Tajuddin Ahmed, prime minister of the provisional government, in conjunction with South Block in New Delhi envisaged opening a crucial dialogue with Pakistan’s exiled political leaders in London. Among the attendees was Khan Abdul Wali Khan (leader of the socialist National Awami Party of the NWFP, an iconic Pashtun leader, and an able son of “Frontier Gandhi” Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan).

All of the progressive leaders of Pakistan were fortunately close allies of Sheikh Mujib and had lent him their political support, which raised alarm bells among military hawks in Rawalpindi.

The agenda of the meeting was sensitive. The leaders expressed their solidarity with the creation of independent Bangladesh and were worried about the safety of Sheikh Mujib. Azad did not hesitate to spell out the exiled government’s plan. He carefully laid down whether there was any possibility to forge a joint front for armed rebellion among the ethnic sub-national people in Pakistan to break away from Pakistan and become sovereign independent nation-states, as Bangladesh had showcased.

The Bangladesh leader in his submission said the Indian army had reached the gates of Lahore and it was an opportune moment to strike. He said confidently that Bangladesh would provide logistics from friendly countries to wage armed struggles and extend political, diplomatic, and military support for a unified movement.

The ethnic leaders at the Charing Cross meeting could not believe that Bangladesh leadership would offer such a radical proposal. They doubted whether Bangladesh could provide political and military support to the ethnic armed struggles already happening in Balochistan and NWFP.

The curious leaders asked Azad about India’s mindset to back the movements of the Sindhi, Baloch, and Pashtuns. Azad quickly assured them that India’s political support could be mustered, citing India’s help for Bangladesh’s Liberation Movement. He said the Awami League leadership was willing to talk to New Delhi to secure India’s support, on the condition that the leaders would have to commit to democracy, secularism, and pluralism, and reject Mohammad Ali Jinnah’s two-nation theory.

However, the exiled leaders Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, Khan Abdul Wali Khan, and Khair Baksh Marri said the proposal was too little, too late. While the meeting was in progress, news broke in the British media that 93,000 Pakistan troops and civilian officers had unconditionally surrendered in Dhaka.

Several historians conclude that it was obvious the dialogue failed because the secret plan was made in haste with a poor vision and no timeline.

First published in the Dhaka Tribune 18 May 2021

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist, media rights defender, recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter @saleemsamad

Baloch, Sindh, Pashtun nationalist dreams shattered after the arrest of Bangabandhu

SALEEM SAMAD

While living in exile in Canada during the ultra-rightist government of Khaleda Zia and later 1/11 military-backed caretaker government in Bangladesh, I was curiously exploring the political agendas of the nationalist organizations spearheaded by Pakistan born Sindhi, Baloch, and Kashmiri leaders who were living in exile in the US and Canada.

In 2005, I was first invited by the Sindh Foundation, and again by Baloch International in 2007 in Washington DC. I also attended the World Sindhi Institute conference in Toronto, Canada in 2006.

I was requested to speak out about the genocide, war crimes, and rape committed by marauding Pakistan military in collaboration with their henchmen Jamaat-e-Islami during the brutal birth of Bangladesh in 1971.

I deliberately took opportunities to participate in several protest rallies, mostly organized by Free Balochistan, United Kashmir, and Free Sindh movements in Washington DC, New York, and Toronto and spoke on atrocities committed by the Pakistan army. The rallies were told that the Pakistan army was committing atrocities in Balochistan similar to the ones experienced in Bangladesh.

The thousands of Baloch nationalist leaders and activists living in North America and Europe dream to regain the independence of Balochistan, which they lost in March 1948 after the Pakistan army invaded the princely Kalat State and acceded the country. Balochistan became the largest province of Pakistan with rich mineral resources.

My story is centered on an elderly person, Rasool Bux Palijo, a Sindhi nationalist and a renowned lawyer. He was introduced to me in 2005 by my friend Munawar Laghari, founder of Sindh Foundation in Washington DC.

Rasool Bux Palijo was Pakistan’s Marxist leader, scholar, and writer. He was a leading human-rights lawyer and was the founder and chairman of Awami Tahreek, a progressive leftist party.

He and his party Awami Tahreek played a crucial role against the “illegal Pakistan Army crackdown” in Bangladesh and also in Balochistan.

Politician Rasool Bux Palijo dashed from Karachi to Dhanmondi Road 32 to hold crucial parleys with Bangabandhu during post-1970 elections. He stayed for two weeks in Dhaka and met the acclaimed leader Sheikh Mujib. 

Bangabandhu passed extremely busy hours with party meetings and political leaders visiting the crowded residence overlooking Dhanmondi Lake. Palijo took the opportunity to talk to Bangabandhu during his break for tea, lunch, and dinner, at what is today Bangabandhu Bhaban.

After having words from Bangabandhu that he would ensure the political rights in the framework of provincial autonomy, based on the six-point mandate, he and others returned to Karachi with satisfaction to achieve political autonomy in the Sindh region.

In January 1972, the popular Sindhi leftist leader wrote his first-ever book on Bangladesh war crimes and organized a peasant protest in Sindh for the freedom of his political comrade Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, also demanding trial of military officials accused of war crimes.

Another regional party Jeay Sindh, founded by charismatic leader GM Syed, was a nationalist political party in the Sindh province of Pakistan, demanding freedom of Sindhudesh from Pakistan.

Sindhudesh is an idea of a separate homeland for Sindhis who lived in the Indus basin centuries before Alexander the Great invaded Sindh in 326 BC.

The Sindhi nationalist dreamed of the creation of a Sindhi state, which would be either autonomous within Pakistan or independent from it. GM Syed’s movement collapsed after the bloody War of Independence of Bangladesh.

Bangladesh independence architect Sheikh Mujib promised the Baloch, Sindh, and Pashtun nationalist leaders that he would ensure their political autonomy if only he could lay his hands on the government after the 1970 elections.

Unfortunately, the Pakistan junta betrayed Bangabandhu and the dreams of Balochis, Sindhis, and Pasthuns were shattered after the “Operation Searchlight” crackdown. What followed were his subsequent arbitrary arrests and detention in Mianwali prison in Pakistan throughout the 1971 Liberation War.

Both GM Syed and Rasool Bux Palijo were imprisoned and tortured in 1971 for extending political support to Bangabandhu. Both Sindh nationalist leaders died, leaving behind a tumultuous political legacy for Sindh.

GM Syed was posthumously conferred a “Friends of Liberation War Honour” by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a recognition for his role in the independence of Bangladesh. Several other Baloch and Pasthuns leaders were also honored for their contribution in 1971.

The new generation of Balochi, Sindhi, and Pasthun nationalists still admire Sheikh Mujib as a “role model” but regret that he could not be their savior.

First published in the Dhaka Tribune, 26 August 2019

Saleem Samad, is an independent journalist, media rights defender, also recipient of Ashoka Fellow (USA) and Hellman-Hammett Award. Twitter @saleemsamad