Is ULFA Separatist Still a Threat to Northeast India’s Sovereignty?

SALEEM SAMAD

The United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), once the fiercest militants, had caused havoc in Assam, in Northeast India bordering Bangladesh. In the 1980s and 1990s, India was torn apart by a separatist movement by radicalised militants of Nagaland, Manipur, and Tripura, all bordering Bangladesh. The civil war caused deaths and forced migration for tens of thousands. Many more lost their near and dear ones in the insurrections. Thousands were victims of arbitrary detention, torture and false terrorism cases by state security agencies, while thousands more languished in prisons for years.

India blamed Bangladesh for providing shelter to separatist leaders, training camps, weapons and logistics. Dhaka was often blamed, and India claimed to have provided evidence for inciting the rebellions in the Northeast. Bangladesh, since 1975, has had military governments which were apparently hostile to India. Delhi also accused Dhaka of aiding, abetting and cross-border terrorism to separatist groups in Northeast Indian pursuing different approaches to self-determination, greater political autonomy and independence of their landlocked territory.

The other militant groups are the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN); the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB); Manipuri separatist groups, including the factions of People’s Liberation Army of Manipur (PLAM) and Tripura separatist groups, the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) and All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF).

Last week, a faction of the ULFA-Independent’s hideout in the dense hill forest of the Myanmar-China border was pounded with drone and missile attacks. ULFA-I has accused the Indian army of killing its leaders in the Myanmar camp of launching drone and missile strikes on its camps in Myanmar’s Sagaing Region, claiming the attacks killed three senior leaders and injured dozens.

The group claimed that Lieutenant General Nayan Medhi (alias Nayan Asom), a key strategist, was killed in an initial drone strike. Subsequent missile attacks, allegedly during Nayan Asom’s funeral, reportedly killed Brigadier Ganesh Lahon (alias Ganesh Asom) and Colonel Pradip Gogoi (alias Pradip Asom), with 19 cadres injured and several civilians wounded.

The Indian Army, however, has denied any involvement, raising questions about the veracity of the claims and the dynamics of insurgent activity along the volatile India-Myanmar border, French news agency AFP and Indian TV Zee News reported. Instead, the Indian security establishment has claimed that several heavily armed battle-hardened ethnic rebels of Myanmar were behind the attack on the Paresh Baruah camps.

In a series of statements, ULFA-I alleged that over 150 drones, reportedly of Israeli and French origin, targeted its Eastern Command Headquarters (ECHQ) in at least three sites shortly after midnight on July 14, the separatist group claimed. Paresh Baruah, the supremo of ULFA-I, condemned the strikes and vowed retaliation, alleging that the Myanmar Army was aware of the operation in advance.

The Indian Army swiftly rejected ULFA-I’s claims. Lieutenant Colonel Mahendra Rawat, PRO of the Defence Guwahati, told the media, “There are no inputs with the Indian Army on such an operation.” ULFA-I, a hard-line faction, was formed in 2012 by Paresh Baruah, formerly the military commander of the unified ULFA in the 1990s. He was a football player and was very popular as the goalkeeper of the Assam team.

During the Bangladesh liberation war in 1971, he was a young volunteer in refugee camps in Assam. During his volunteer tenure, he befriended several political and student leaders in exile in India. He also developed rapport with the Mukti Bahini officers, who defected from the Pakistan Army. When ULFA was formed in April 1979, Paresh Baruah liaised between the rogue Bangladesh Army officers, who had mostly served with the Mukti Bahini. He was able to negotiate with top brass in the Bangladeshi military.

Bangladesh’s spy agency, DGFI (Director General of Forces Intelligence), was deployed to provide logistics to ULFA. It was claimed in some documents that the DGFI was able to convince the Pakistan spy agency ISI, and also able to contact the Chinese Communist Party to extend military help.

The separatists intermittently received cargoes of Chinese-made AK-47s from several clandestine arms factories in South Asian countries. They were given light weapons, wireless equipment, explosives, and counterattack arsenals. Which is good enough to keep the Indian Army, the ruthless paramilitary Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and other security forces at bay.

It’s undeniable that ULFA leaders operated from covert headquarters in the Bangladesh capital, Dhaka and were protected by the state security agency in that period. This was disclosed by the ULFA chairman, Arabinda Rajkhowa, in his biography after he quit the armed struggle and made peace with Indian authorities. He is presently living in a safe house in India.

The pro-talks ULFA signed a peace accord with the government in December 2023, and disbanded the militant outfit in January 2024, ending its 44-year hit-and-run guerrilla warfare. His biography depicts his entire security detail, including the minute details of the place where his children were studying in Dhaka.

Several names of security officers of Bangladesh military intelligence, who are now mostly retired or have migrated to the West, are mentioned in his biography. His biography even details how he, along with his comrades, was extradited to India by Bangladesh authorities. Indian media, however, had published and claimed that they were captured from the Bangladesh-Indian border, since their camps were mostly on the Assam-Bangladesh border. A local reporter exploring the northeast border with Assam and Arunachal had found several shelters of ULFA militants inside Bangladesh territory.

Similar forced deportations were carried out with the leaders of NLTF, NSCN, NDFB, PLAM and ATTF as their camps were dismantled, and they were forced to leave the territory in the first few years after Hasina returned to power in 2009. However, in 1986, when Sheikh Hasina became the prime minister, she failed to deport the separatist leaders due to the intransigent attitude of some powerful military officers and bureaucrats.

During the government of Begum Khaleda Zia (2001-2006), her party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), a close associate, moved the Home Affairs Ministry and the court of law to provide political asylum to the separatist leaders instead of deporting them to India.

The splinter group ULFA (I) has rejected peace talks, demands Assam’s sovereignty and vows to continue the armed struggle, while the mainstream ULFA, led by Arabinda Rajkhowa, has signed a peace accord in December 2023 with Delhi. The militant outfit was disbanded in January 2024, ending its 44-year hit-and-run guerrilla tactics. Baruah-led militant outfit, which operates from Myanmar soil and refers to the Indian Army as “colonial occupational forces”. Insurgent outfits of the Northeast have had a presence in Myanmar since the late eighties, taking advantage of the porous border and the ongoing ethnic conflict there.

Indian security agencies have repeatedly expressed concern over the use of Myanmar territory by militants for hit-and-run attacks in the Northeast. There have been instances of reported Indian military action against militants across the border on several occasions.

The Myanmar authorities are mum about the recent reported strikes by India, which either depicts a tacit nod by Yangon or an indifference due to their multiple troubles at home.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 16 July 2025 

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders. Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

ASEAN’s Missed Opportunity for Beleaguered Myanmar

SALEEM SAMAD

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) once again failed Myanmar at the summit in Kuala Lumpur from 26 to 27 May 2025 with a “Peace Formula”, when the country plunged into a bloody civil war with “revolutionary” armed ethnic groups.

ASEAN is an intergovernmental organization of ten Southeast Asian countries: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Host Malaysia, as the current chairman of ASEAN, delivered a meaningless statement on Myanmar and offered no new approaches to dealing with the crisis in the country, which has been beleaguered by a military dictatorship since 2021.

Instead of dusting off their hands, the summit offered a toothless Five-Point Consensus (5PC) as a road map for addressing Myanmar’s tribulations. The ethnic rebels are more concerned with holding their ancestral territories and establishing regional autonomy under a constitutional government. None of the rebels has a military plan to capture Myanmar’s capital.

To topple the military regime in Naypyidaw and form a national democratic government, the rebel groups have placed the responsibility upon the National Unity Government (NUG), a shadow government in exile under the political inspiration of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. The ousted leader is presently serving jail terms on charges of sedition.

Myanmar’s capital, Naypyidaw, is besieged by ethnic rebels who have taken two-thirds of the country from the military junta led by General Min Aung Hlaing, who has ruled Myanmar as the State Administration Council (SAC) Chairman since seizing power in the February 2021 coup d’état. In July 2024, he wore presidential robes in July 2024.

To the Myanmarese, the obsession with the failed peace plan is beyond frustrating. They simply can’t help wondering why ASEAN leaders remain so delusional when it comes to this “consensus”, which has delivered nothing for Myanmar.

Since ASEAN adopted the 5PC in 2021, the junta has never honoured it. First and foremost, the consensus calls for the immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar. This step has never been implemented by the junta. Instead of ending military rule, the regime has rained bombs on its citizens and blocked essential supplies, including healthcare facilities, not to mention the continued atrocities like arson and massacres.

Over the past four years, more than 6,000 civilians have been killed by the military, including children, prompting the UN early this year to say that the junta had ramped up its violence against civilians to a level that was unprecedented in the four years since the generals launched their coup.

Rather than taking the junta’s total disregard for its plan as a blatant insult, ASEAN’s leadership doggedly clings to the 5PC as its “main reference to address the political crisis in Myanmar,” writes Hpone Myat in anti-establishment news portal The Irrawaddy. The news organization Irrawaddy, named after a yawning river in Myanmar, operates in exile in a neighbouring country for the safety and security of its staff.

Myanmar has become the most dangerous place for journalists after the recent sentencing of Than Htike Myint to five years in jail under Myanmar’s Counter Terrorism Law on 3 April. The military was holding 55 journalists in detention in June 2024, according to a report by the International Centre for Not-for-Profit Law (ICNL).

ASEAN’s continued faith in the 5PC in the face of the regime’s repeated intransigence is incomprehensible. In the light of this, the people of Myanmar are not sure whether to praise the bloc for its “consistency” or feel sorry for its naivety in dealing with the most ruthless regime on earth. Apart from the statement, remarks from the bloc’s current chair, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, were out of context and deliberately did not touch base, as the military junta is sinking into a quicksand.

In April, Anwar met with junta chief Hlaing in Bangkok and held virtual talks with Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) in exile. Malaysian Premier Anwar Ibrahim should not have appeased Min Aung Hlaing, believing in the illusions that the General would restore peace in the country, riddled with civil strife. After a call from the ASEAN meeting in April, Hlaing promised a ceasefire by the Myanmar armed forces, Tatmadaw, and the ethnic rebels. His junta even signed an MOU with some rebels, but that ceasefire was broken within days.

Hlaing’s air force continued to bomb civilian areas, causing immense suffering, pain, and agony for the villagers. At the summit, he (Anwar) described those talks as “significant”, saying both sides were open to engagement while highlighting Gen Hlaing’s supposed willingness to engage in peace efforts despite dubbing NUG as a “terrorist organization”.

In his opening remarks to the summit in Kuala Lumpur, Anwar said ASEAN had been able to “move the needle forward” in its efforts to achieve an eventual resolution to the Myanmar crisis, adding that the steps may be small and the bridge may be fragile, but “even a fragile bridge is better than a widening gulf.”

There is not even a “fragile bridge”, given his dishonesty and insincerity. His willingness to engage in peace talks is merely fictional and a hollow promise; Myanmar’s generals have historically never been known for sincerely engaging in peace efforts. They only engage or join dialogue as a pretext to ease external pressures. No such talks have ever borne fruit. Ask any ethnic armed resistance organization or opposition politician in Myanmar, and they will enlighten you as to how historically untrustworthy the previous generals and Min Aung Hlaing are, laments Hpone Myat.

ASEAN members have univocally urged the regime in Naypyidaw to extend a temporary ceasefire and engage in peace talks with its rivals at the summit, but did not spell out a timeline. Instead, the ASEAN urged that negotiations were needed and that Malaysia’s Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan would visit Naypyidaw in June regarding the mitigation of the crisis.

Furthermore, the regional leaders’ statement on an extended and expanded ceasefire in Myanmar can only be greeted with dismay. The leaders further called for “the sustained extension and nationwide expansion of the ceasefire in Myanmar,” but the reality is the ceasefire has never existed on the ground, as the junta has consistently violated the truce from the very start, wrote The Irrawaddy.

Instead of being unrealistic about the reality of present-day Myanmar, ASEAN should have adopted a serious resolution against the regime. Such moves would have put pressure on the junta by making it harder for it to survive, but also would have helped move the currently stalled resolution mechanism for Myanmar’s crisis forward. To make that happen, the bloc must first drop its empty rhetoric and take meaningful steps, concludes Hpone Myat.

Last week, the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) raised concern over the deteriorating human rights situation and economic collapse in Myanmar, with violent military operations killing more civilians last year than in any year since the 2021 coup. The military operations have sparked an unfolding humanitarian crisis.

“The country has endured an increasingly catastrophic human rights crisis marked by unabated violence and atrocities that have affected every single aspect of life,” said Volker Türk, the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights. Myanmar’s economy has lost USD 93.9 billion over the last four years, with inflation surging and the kyat (local currency) losing 40 per cent of its value.

Over half the population now lives below the poverty line, facing food insecurity and soaring prices, which has worsened since the March 28 earthquake, according to the U.N. Possibly, ASEAN has lost all moral position to pressurise the military junta, since Justice for Myanmar accused 54 companies in Southeast Asian countries ASEAN of supplying the regime with funds, jet fuel and technology.

“ASEAN’s failure to address corporate complicity has allowed the [regime] to intensify its brutal campaign of terror that has killed thousands of civilians and displaced millions with total impunity,” said Yadanar Maung, spokesperson of Justice for Myanmar, while calling on the leaders of ASEAN to end their support to the regime in Naypyidaw.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan on 03 June 2025 

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Bangladesh: ‘humanitarian corridor’ for Myanmarese

SALEEM SAMAD

Political parties from different shades of right, left, centrists, and Islamists are disturbed to hear from the media that Bangladesh has agreed to establish a ‘humanitarian corridor’ for the hungry people of war-torn Rakhine State in Myanmar.

The media in the country, quoting Foreign Affairs Ministry officials, have published sketchy information on the so-called humanitarian corridor. The Interim Government has yet to spell out details of the plan, which has raised suspicion which is now mixed with conspiracy theories.

The United Nations wants to dispatch food, medical supplies and other essentials to Rakhine, where silent famine persists.

The United Nation Development Program (UNDP) in an assessment report released in November 2024, painted a grave situation in the Rakhine state. It said the people caught in the civil war are experiencing a near famine and proposed that immediate food, medical aid, agriculture inputs, construction materials and other essentials need urgent attention from the international aid agencies.

UNDP report stated that Rakhine is on the verge of an unprecedented disaster due to a combination of interlinked issues. Restrictions on goods entering Rakhine, both internationally and domestically, have led to a severe lack of income, hyperinflation, and significantly reduced domestic food production. Essential services and a social safety net are almost non-existent, leaving an already vulnerable population at risk of collapse in the coming months.

The report shows that Rakhine’s economy has become almost dysfunctional. Critical sectors such as trade, agriculture, and construction have halted. Export-oriented, agro-based livelihoods are disappearing as markets become inaccessible due to blockades by the junta.

UN warns that Rakhine faces the imminent threat of acute famine. The worst victims of a lack of food are millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs), including Rohingyas.

In the last couple of months, a fresh influx of Rohingya Muslims in Bangladesh has added to the already 1.2 million languishing in overcrowded camps in Cox’s Bazar, in Southeast Bangladesh.

However, there is no specific assessment of the number of IDPs in Rakhine, as they spread over the forests, hills and banks on the riverfront. The IDPs do not live in permanent shelters. They live in makeshift camps. The worst victims of internal displacement are children, women and elderly persons. They are suffering from severe malnutrition, communicable diseases and the absence of healthcare.

UN wants to address an unfolding humanitarian crisis in Rakhine and said it is only Bangladesh, its immediate neighbor separated by a kilometer-wide Naf River can save the hungry people, coupled with the absence of healthcare that has jeopardized their lives and living.

UN officials believe that Bangladesh is a trusted country which could extend help in facilitating supplies of food, medical and other essentials.

The United States Army Pacific (USARPAC) stationed in Hawaii is supposed to provide logistics and security for the IDPs in Rakhine state.

It is reported that the US military will be deployed for the logistics at the corridor at Silkhali, a small river port. The site has been secured by the Bangladesh Army, a no go for the civilians. The army would only facilitate logistics for the UN operation, said a senior government official, who is privy to the corridor.

UNDP report says that internal rice production is declining due to a lack of supplies of seeds, fertilizers, severe weather, and a rise in the number of IDPs that could no longer engage in agricultural production after the civil war erupted and repeatedly relocating to safer places has further exacerbated the miseries.

The UN estimates that with the near-total halt of trade, over 2 million people are at risk of starvation.

When UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited the camps and had Iftar (food for breaking the fast in Ramadan) with the refugees, he told the Bangladesh authorities that a “humanitarian corridor” needed to be opened to reach the hungry people.

Before leaving Dhaka after a visit to Cox’s Bazar Rohingya camps, in mid-March, Guterres said he had discussed with Bangladesh authorities the possibilities of a humanitarian corridor would connect inside Myanmar as a means of creating conditions for Rohingya repatriation to Rakhine with the rebel Arakan Army which has captured except for few places resisted by the Myanmar military troops.

He said it would, however, require the “authorization and the cooperation of the parties to the conflict” in Rakhine, where the Myanmar junta is fighting the rebels, which has further caused frustration, pain and agony for the IDPs.

On the other hand, Tarique Rahman, the supremo of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), said from his London office, cautioned the Interim Government that such a decision can only be taken by the parliament.

Presently, there is no parliament, and the upcoming election is scheduled for the first half of 2026, after the Ramadan and Eid holidays. Therefore, the hungry people in Rakhine will have to wait for at least a year until an election is held in Bangladesh and a parliament begins to function.

Meanwhile, top US officials visiting Bangladesh a fortnight ago held secret meetings in Bangladesh with hybrid representatives of the United League of Arakan (ULA), a political wing of AA and Chin National Front (CNF), the political umbrella of Chin National Army.

The Chin National Army is a Chin ethnic armed organization in Myanmar. The armed wing of the Chin National Front (CNF) was founded on 20 March 1988.

The CNA and ULA are members of the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), a coalition of opposition groups that aims to establish a federal system in Myanmar or achieve levels of autonomy and peace among the country’s various ethnic minorities.

Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, under house arrest and accused of sedition, is incommunicado. The former senior leaders of her party who could evade arrest and have gone underground safely are earnestly working with the ethnic rebels under the banner of UNFC.

Bangladesh Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain told journalists that the Interim Government agreed in principle with the UN proposal on the corridor, but certain conditions must be met for its implementation.

A day later, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir slammed the interim government for making such a move without consulting the political parties.

“An interim government has no authority to make such a policy decision,” reads the statement by President Mohammad Shah Alam and General Secretary Ruhin Hossain Prince of the Communist Party of Bangladesh (CPB).

The CPB questioned that the West’s sudden interest in the Rohingya issue was “part of a broader imperialist conspiracy”.

The Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami’s Ameer (chief), Shafiqur Rahman said the humanitarian corridor requests that the government make the issue transparent to the nation because it might involve many security issues.

Radical Islamic platform Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh’s fiery leader, Secretary General Mamunul Haque, opposing the move, said, “Imperialist powers are trying to implement their agenda by using Bangladesh. As a patriotic force, Hefazat-e-Islam does not support this in any way.”

In response to the concerns of the political party leaders regarding the humanitarian corridor being premature, said Shafiqul Alam, press secretary to the Chief Advisor Prof Muhammad Yunus.

To pacify the political parties, the government quickly said nothing had been finalized regarding the corridor. But said that the government would be willing to provide logistic support should there be UN-led humanitarian support to the state of Rakhine, said Khalilur Rahman, the National Security Adviser in charge of Rohingya issues, told French news agency AFP.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 4 May 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

What is the Arakan Army doing in Bangladesh?

The open display of the guerrillas with the logo on their uniform inside a sovereign state has sparked serious debate, especially as the Arakan Army continues to be accused by an international rights NGO

SALEEM SAMAD

Several videos have surfaced on social media recently. The video and posts with photos in social media show that the rebel Arakan Army, which swept Rakhine State from the Myanmar military junta, were inside Bangladesh territory to celebrate South East Asia’s most popular “Songkran Water Festival”.

A thousand-year-old traditional water-sprinkling festival celebrating the Buddhist New Year is widely celebrated across South and Southeast Asia, including Bangladesh, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, parts of Northeast India and parts of Vietnam from April 11-15 and features a mix of traditional ceremonies and raucous water fights.

Songkran is recognised by UNESCO as an intangible cultural heritage of humanity, further highlighting its importance.

The festival draws hordes of tourists from around the world, eager to experience the vibrant atmosphere and water-splashing fun.

The festival is also organised by a visible Buddhist population of Marma and Rakhine ethnic communities in southeast Bangladesh bordering troubled Myanmar.

The Rohingya refugees are scared of the presence of the Arakan Army (AA). There are reasons for the Rohingyas who fled for safety and security, the “textbook ethnic cleansing” according to a probe report by the United Nations Human Rights Agency (OHCHR) published in Geneva.

Myanmar’s treatment of its Muslim Rohingya minority appears to be a “textbook example” of ethnic cleansing, the top OHCHR official has said.

The 1.4 million refugees are languishing in squalid camps in Kutupalong, the world’s largest refugee shelter. Almost one kilometre wide Naf river separates the two neighbours, Bangladesh and Myanmar.

When AA swept through the hills and forests, villages and towns, fighting against the brutal Myanmar military junta, the guerrillas also committed atrocities against the Rohingyas.

The Rohingyas, mostly Muslims, fled Myanmar after the 2017 state-sponsored genocide by Tatmadaw, the military force and paramilitary. The atrocities and persecution have caused a fresh influx of 113,000 Rohingyas to cross into Bangladesh, according to UN agencies in Cox’s Bazar.

Mg Aung Hla Shwe, a concerned Rohingya refugee, posted a video on Facebook showing that the AA was very well inside Bangladesh. A less than a minute video on a festival ground where the flags of Bangladesh and United League of Arakan (ULA), a political wing of AA, were seen fluttering at Remakri Mukh, Bandarban district, near the Bangladesh-Myanmar border.

In another video posted on YouTube by a Rohingya refugee, the AA was dancing at the “Water Festival and Concert” and said the venue of the event is 10 km inside Bangladesh. The video post argues that the event was held when the paramilitary Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) were spectators. No intervention from local authorities or border security forces is seen in the video.

A worried refugee writes: “Our so-called tiger 'BGB' is present there as spectators. Very Shocking!” “This is not just a festival—it looks like a show of force,” one social media user posted. “How can a foreign armed group operate publicly inside our borders?”

The open display of the guerrillas with the logo on their uniform inside a sovereign state has sparked serious debate, especially as the AA continues to be accused by an international rights NGO, Fortify Rights, after an investigation of several accusations came to their attention. Fortify Rights lamented grave human rights violations against the Rohingya population in Rakhine State by the AA.

Those who are concerned about security have termed the video “deeply alarming,” noting the strategic sensitivity of the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) region. The incident has raised serious concerns over the state of border vigilance and oversight by the BGB.

“Allowing any armed group—especially one accused of ethnic cleansing and persecution—to parade logos inside a neighbouring country is unacceptable,” said a regional security researcher. “This is a breach of sovereignty and an erosion of trust in border management.”

The Government of Bangladesh has not issued an official statement. However, government sources indicate that high-level discussions are underway regarding the footage and the broader implications for cross-border diplomacy and internal security. Public outrage continues to build, with citizens demanding a full investigation, stricter border control measures, and clear policies on the activities of foreign non-state actors within Bangladeshi territory.Rohingya community said: “We fled [from] them—now they’re here?”

For Rohingya refugees temporarily residing in Bangladesh, the presence of AA members within the country has triggered fresh anxiety and fear. Many in the camps view the AA not only as a rebel force but as one of the primary perpetrators of current abuses in Maungdaw and Buthidaung. “We ran from them. Now we see them walking freely in Bangladesh while we remain locked in refugee camps,” said a young Rohingya teacher from Camp 11.

“The AA has forcibly evicted our families, destroyed our villages, and imposed harsh restrictions. If they appear in Bangladesh without resistance, it puts us in danger,” said a community elder from Camp 3. The government’s indifference regarding the gringos from across the border on the Songkran festival with the Rakhine Buddhist community has a strong diplomatic and geo-political significance.

Recently, the UN Development Agency has released a report which paints a grave situation in the Rakhine state, which is experiencing a near famine and proposes that immediate food, medical aid and other essential needs urgent attention from the international aid agencies. The UNDP report states that Rakhine is on the verge of an unprecedented disaster due to a combination of interlinked issues. Restrictions on goods entering Rakhine, both internationally and domestically, have led to a severe lack of income, hyperinflation, and significantly reduced domestic food production. Essential services and a social safety net are almost non-existent, leaving an already vulnerable population at risk of collapse in the coming months.

The report shows that Rakhine’s economy has become almost dysfunctional. Critical sectors such as trade, agriculture, and construction are at a standstill. Export-oriented, agro-based livelihoods are disappearing as markets become inaccessible due to blockades by the junta.

UN warns that Rakhine faces the imminent threat of acute famine. The worst victims of a lack of food are millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs), including Rohingyas. Internal rice production is declining due to a lack of supplies of seeds, fertilisers, severe weather, and a rise in IDP who can no longer farm due to the civil war. The UNDP estimates that with the near-total halt of trade, over 2 million people are at risk of starvation.

When UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited the camps and had Iftar (food for breaking the fast in Ramadan) with the refugees, he told the Bangladesh authorities that a “humanitarian corridor” needed to be opened to reach the hungry people. The government has agreed in principle to the humanitarian corridor. In a series of parleys, the formalities and logistics are still being discussed with senior government bureaucrats, UN officials and the Bangladesh Army.

It is also reported that the United States Army Pacific (USARPAC) has been deployed for logistics at the humanitarian corridor at Silkhali, a small commercial river port.

Highly placed sources said that the mission is to support a US-backed proxy war in Rakhine State against the Myanmar military junta. The clandestine mission will provide weapons and training to AA and its ally, CNF (Chin National Front), battle-hardened guerrillas.

The deal brokered by the Americans would subsequently help repatriate a few hundred thousand Rohingya, and they would return home and settle down. The international aid agencies would provide rehabilitation for Rohingya refugees.

Myanmar is staunchly anti-US and anti-West. This diplomacy has pushed Naypyidaw, the capital of Myanmar, to develop strategic and military alliances with China and Russia. On the other hand, America, the European Union, as well as the United Nations have imposed numerous economic and diplomatic sanctions against Myanmar’s government, which has significantly broken the economic backbone of the country. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, head of the Myanmar military junta, is facing an international arrest warrant issued in November 2024 by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, Netherlands, for crimes against humanity committed against the Rohingya Muslims.

The primary objective of the US proxy war is to capture the most wanted war criminals, including General Hlaing and six other Myanmar senior military officials responsible for the genocide against the Rohingya people, to stand trial in the ICC. However, the political parties, right, left, and Islamists have erupted in fury. They argued that the corridor was an excuse for the American troops to engage in a proxy war for which the country was not prepared.

To pacify the political parties, the government quickly said that nothing had been finalised regarding the humanitarian corridor. However, Khalilur Rahman, the government's adviser on Rohingya issues, told French news agency AFP that the government would be willing to provide logistic support should there be UN-led humanitarian support to the state of Rakhine.

First published in the International Affairs Review, New Delhi, India, on 3 May 2025

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist based in Bangladesh and a media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders (@RSF.ORG). He is the recipient of the Ashoka Fellowship and the Hellman-Hammett Award. Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Will Bangladesh join US-backed proxy war with Myanmar junta?

SALEEM SAMAD

In recent times, there has been a gargantuan development in Myanmar (formerly Burma). Large swatches of the Rakhine state have been occupied by the rebel Arakan Army (AA) with a political objective of confederalism of the ethnic Rakhine community.

The Rakhine state in northern Myanmar borders 270 kilometers of Bangladesh. The battle-hardened foot soldiers of AA political objective is to achieve regional autonomy of the ethnic Rakhine community.

The AA, fighting since 2014, have seized control of 13 of the 17 townships in Rakhine State, including all townships along the border with Bangladesh. However, the state capital, Sittwe, and the port city of Kyaukpyu remain under the control of the Myanmar military junta.

Founded in April 2009, the AA is the military wing of the United League of Arakan (ULA). It is currently led by Commander-in-Chief, Major General Twan Mrat Naing. It is the military wing of the Rakhine ethnic people in Rakhine state, where they are the majority.

The majority are Buddhists and a mix of Christian and animistic tribes (describes the belief that natural objects and phenomena, such as plants, animals, rocks, and the weather, have souls or spirits).

The Rakhine seek greater autonomy from Myanmar’s government and want to restore the sovereignty of the Arakan people. It was declared a terrorist organization in 2020 by Myanmar, and again by the military junta in 2024, headed by a 69-year-old General Min Aung Hlaing, who has ruled Myanmar with an iron hand as the Chairman of the State Administration Council since seizing power in the February 2021 coup d’état. He assumed his position as President in July 2024.

Millions of ethnic Rakhine are victims of forced displacement due to the conflict and onslaught of the government forces, and another 1.2 million ethnic Rohingya Muslims are languishing in crowded camps in Cox’s Bazar in southeast Bangladesh.

The displaced Rakhine community are starving because of want food and do not have cash to buy food.

There is an unconfirmed report that a consignment of food from the international food aid has been clandestinely sent to the beleaguered Rakhine state.

The internally displaced refugees are demanding more food aid for their survival. Food and water supplies have been blocked by the Myanmar junta to regions held by the rebels.

The AA and rebel China National Army have reached out to Bangladesh for food aid and to reopen trade between the two countries. Bangladesh has not officially come up with a decision for food aid and trade.

Earlier on the government had said that they cannot hold talks with AA, as they are not a legitimate authority representing Myanmar. But, last week the Adviser, Tauhid Hossain, for the Ministry for Foreign Affairs said Bangladesh may hold dialogue with AA for a number of pressing agendas, including border security, fresh influx of Rohingya refugees and other crucial issues.

The nascent Interim Government is in a dilemma as to whether Bangladesh should okay the “Silkhali Corridor” proposed by the Americans to provide food and logistics to keep the people of Rakhine state, or to continue with the challenge against the military junta in Naypyidaw, the new capital of Myanmar.

For military and strategic development, a team of military strategists has identified Silkhali as a supply hub for operations in Myanmar’s Rakhine state.

Well, no construction has yet begun, but top military visits (including Bangladesh Army COAS General Waker-uz-Zaman) confirm a positive nod for the site, which is in proximity to the conflict zone.

Silkhali is a revenue village, 30 kilometer north of Teknaf, near the Naf River, which separates Myanmar and Bangladesh. The corridor is presumed for the planned Rohingya repatriation once the operation begins.

The site is adjacent to the Bangladesh Army’s artillery field firing range (used for Turkish field guns and anti-tank guided missile – ATGM’s mortars). The coastal location is ideal for artillery testing and covert logistics movement, and has a thick forest cover often visited by elephant herds.

A massive logistics hub near Teknaf is under construction for supply movement. Meanwhile, the Cox’s Bazar airport is being upgraded for Turkish UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) operations for the Silkhali Corridor.

Recently, three US officials, Susan Stevenson (Charge d’Affaires based in  Naypyidaw, Nicole Chulick (Deputy Assistant Secretary, South Central Asia) and Andrew Herrup (Deputy Assistant Secretary, East Asia-Pacific) flew into Dhaka. It is not clear whether they have visited Silkhali.

Sources privy to the development said the US diplomats held secret parleys in Dhaka with representatives of the Arakan Army and the Chin National Front (CNF).

The AA and CNF refused to ally with the jihadist Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) as a condition for the secret meeting, the source said.

Their refusal led to the recent arrest of ARSA supremo Ataullah Abu Ammar Jununi from the fringe of the capital Dhaka. He is accused of waging deadly 2017 attacks that led to a brutal military crackdown in Myanmar and forced 750,000 Rohingya Muslims to flee to Bangladesh.

It could not be ascertained which agency ensured the safe passage for the Myanmar rebels to Dhaka and return to their secret headquarters in Rakhine and Chin states.

However, a senior diplomat with the US embassy in Dhaka denied such meetings with Myanmar rebels. He also said he does not know whether any dialogue with the rebels is planned to finalise logistics support for the supply of food aid.

Well, the plan for logistics and supply to Rakhine state will not include the Bangladesh Army’s role in the US-backed operation.

Bangladesh government of Prof Muhammad Yunus is strict in ensuring that the army’s 10th, 17th, and 24th Divisions will not get involved in any combat role except for facilitating logistics.

The United States Army Pacific (USARPAC) has been deployed for the proxy war and logistics at the Silkhali Corridor.

Highly placed sources said that the mission is to support a US-backed proxy war in Rakhine state against the Myanmar military junta. The mission will provide weapons, training to AA and CNF guerrillas, food and other supplies.

Myanmar is staunchly anti-US and anti-West. This diplomacy has pushed Naypyidaw to develop strategic and military alliances with China and Russia. On the other hand, America, the European Union, as well as the United Nations have imposed several economic and diplomatic sanctions against Myanmar.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, head of the Myanmar military junta, is facing an international arrest warrant issued in November 2024 by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, Netherlands, for crimes against humanity committed against the Rohingya Muslims.

At least 6,700 Rohingya, including at least 730 children under the age of five, were killed in the month after the violence broke out in 2017, according to medical charity Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) and Amnesty International says the Myanmar military also raped and abused Rohingya women and girls.

The primary objective of the US proxy war is to capture the most wanted war criminals, especially General Hlaing and six other Myanmar senior military officials responsible for the genocide against the Rohingya people, to stand trial in the ICC.

Washington is actively working with the National Unity Government of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar (NUG), under the leadership of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, currently imprisoned in Yangon (formerly Rangoon) for sedition. NUG has been able to ally to share power and bury differences and frictions with most of the ethnic rebel groups that took up weapons for confederalism and have overrun two-thirds of the territories once held by the junta.

First published in the Strathieia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, on 25 April 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Myanmar junta crackdowns on non-committal youths

SALEEM SAMAD

Scores of youths have been arrested in Mandalay, the second-largest city in Myanmar after Yangon, since the junta activated the conscription law early this month, according to news pouring in from war-torn Myanmar.

More than 80 people have been arrested by government soldiers since the second week of February in Chanmyathazi, Maha Aungmyay, and Aungmyaythazan townships in Mandalay, according to Myanmar’s dissident news media, The Irrawaddy.

Combined forces of junta soldiers, police, ward administration officials, and militia members have been taking headcounts and checking households for overnight guests in Mandalay since mid-February.

Migrants working in Mandalay or internally displaced people (IDPs) living in the town were arrested as junta troops searched houses, teashops, and restaurants in the ward on Sunday, allegedly to check for unregistered guests during the day as well as at night.

Streets in Mandalay have become almost deserted after evening hours following the activation of the conscription law and reports that young people are being abducted.

Unverified reports on Myanmar social media say abductions by the army have already begun, while potential conscripts speculate that bribery will be the only way to avoid being conscripted.

The national conscription law was implemented on February 10 by Min Aung Hlaing, a Myanmar army general who has ruled Myanmar as the chairman of the State Administration Council since seizing power in the February 2021 coup d'état. He additionally appointed himself Prime Minister in August 2021.

On the other hand, the regime has asked students to join the University Training Corps (UTC), which acts as a reserve for the military’s depleted ranks.

Junta newspapers boast that many generals, including regime boss Hlaing, were former UTC members.

Under the Conscription Law, students can defer service, but the regime wants students to join the UTC to recruit them as reserves in the meantime.

The first UTC was formed in 1922 at Rangoon University under colonial rule. It was modelled on the British Army’s University Officer’s Training Corps, which aims to recruit educated officers and expose civilians who will become future employers to aspects of military life.

There are three days of training a week during the academic year with a camp every October.

Junta newspaper The Global New Light of Myanmar said the UTCs are commanded by the Directorate of Militias and Border Guard Forces, providing students with four years of training.

University staff and UTC students were quoted by junta newspapers saying the organization teaches basic skills and explains what the military does to protect the country.

In the wake of the 2021 coup, the regime revived a colonial-era law that allows authorities to conduct warrantless searches of private homes and requires all residents to register overnight houseguests. Previously, such searches were mainly conducted at night. But junta troops are also searching households in Mandalay during the day.

Myanmar’s military is aiming to recruit 5,000 able-bodied fighters every month from April under a conscription order, Myanmar watch groups say, revealing its weakness.

Meanwhile, junta soldiers are extorting money from people whom they detain under the pretext of overnight guest registration. The detainees are released after payment is made.

However, pro-junta Telegram channels claim that the young men detained are members of the anti-junta People’s Defence Force and that they possess weapons.

Fighters from the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) have a message for compatriots who have not yet directly supported their resistance against the junta but are now at risk of being pulled into the violent chaos that has engulfed the country since the 2021 coup.

This comes as a coalition of ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy rebels across the country has inflicted heavy losses on government forces, in a counteroffensive that poses an unprecedented – and possibly existential – threat to the Tatmadaw, as Myanmar’s vicious military is known, reports the South China Morning Post.

Reports from Yangon (formerly Rangoon) show queues of hundreds at the Thailand embassy as people seek a legal way out, while hundreds of mainly young men have been detained after sneaking over the border into Thailand to escape the draft – a warning of the potential for a larger exodus ahead.

Thailand, a country that does not have an asylum system for the protection of refugees, is under pressure to consider formalising entry ahead of the expected influx, writes SCMP.

Earlier in January, China brokered the Myanmar ceasefire, urging the junta and rebel militia to ‘exercise maximum restraint’. ‘The two sides agreed to an immediate ceasefire,’ the Chinese foreign ministry claimed, while pledging a continued ‘constructive role’ from Beijing.

The junta and rebel Three Brotherhood Alliance held two days of talks in the Chinese city of Kunming, the ministry spokeswoman reveals.

In another story on Al Jazeera, Myanmar’s military regime has admitted it is facing “heavy assaults” by anti-coup forces who began a coordinated offensive at the end of last month, claiming to have taken control of several towns in border areas and dozens of military outposts.

Spokesperson Zaw Min Tun told Al Jazeera that troops were under “heavy assaults from a significant number of armed rebel soldiers” in Shan State in the north, Kayah State in the east, and Rakhine State in the west.

Anti-coup fighters are using “hundreds” of drones to drop bombs on military posts, and some sites have had to be evacuated, he added.

Myanmar was plunged into crisis when the generals seized power from the elected government of civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi in a coup in February 2021.

First published in The Daily Messenger, 29 February 2024

Saleem Samad is Deputy Editor of The Daily Messenger and an award-winning journalist. An Ashoka Fellow and recipient of the Hellman-Hammett Award. Email: saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Myanmar junta forcefully recruiting Rohingya to fight rebels

SALEEM SAMAD

Myanmar’s regime is accelerating its effort to recruit up to 50,000 personnel per year to replenish its armed forces under the reinforced Conscription Law.

Several media outlets have recently reported in independent and pro-resistance Myanmar media on the forcible recruitment of young men in urban areas.

Military junta chief Min Aung Hlaing activated, for the first time in a decade, a conscription law amid heavy regime casualties and desertions.

Following the announcement, the regime formed a central committee led by the Defence Minister to conscript over-18s into military service. Those who fail to comply face three to five years in prison.

The committee announced the formation of branches in each state and region to implement the law, led by the chief minister with the deputy regional military commander as the vice-chair.

The conscription branches will be established in rural areas and townships. The recruitment process will start in April, regime spokesman Major General Zaw Min Tun said.

The spokesman said around 6 million men and 7 million women were eligible for compulsory military service, according to the 2019 census.

He said 5,000 people will be called up each month and given training, with around 50,000 recruited per year. The conscription is not intended for only one, two, three, or four years and will be eligible for service for two years.

The junta also activated a Reserve Forces Law, allowing it to send veterans back to the front line. Under the law, all former military personnel must serve in the reserve forces for five years starting from the day they resigned or retired.

Conscription has sparked fear and anger among eligible citizens who have been called on to defend the junta that has brutalised them for three years.

It has also been criticised for legalising the junta’s practice of rounding up civilians for use as porters or human shields.

Desertions and defections plague Myanmar troops

The military government's forces have been stretched thin by the recent upsurge in resistance activity. They were already believed to be depleted by casualties, desertions, and defections, though there are no reliable numbers regarding their scale.

The army faces two enemies: the pro-democracy forces formed after the army takeover and better-trained and equipped ethnic minority armed groups that have been battling for greater autonomy for decades.

There are alliances between the resistance groups, as reported by the pro-rebel newspaper The Irrawaddy.

In September of last year, the Defense Ministry of the National Unity Government (NUG), the leading political organisation of the resistance that acts as a shadow government, stated that more than 14,000 troops have defected from the military since the 2021 seizure of power.

The military seized power and ousted the elected government headed by Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi on February 1, 2021. She has been kept in home custody to serve prison sentences for election fraud and other trumped-up charges.

Forced recruitment of Rohingyas

Myanmar’s military is forcibly recruiting Rohingya men from villages and camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Rakhine State, and it is feared they will be used as human shields, activists, and residents of the state warn.

Sittwe, the state capital of Rakhine State, has 13 IDP camps for about 100,000 Rohingya people who were displaced by ethnic and religious violence in the western state in 2012.

At least 400 Rohingya men have already been forcibly recruited from villages and IDP camps after Rohingya community leaders and administrators were pressured to compile lists of at least 50 men for each small IDP village and at least 100 for each IDP camp in three Rakhine townships – Buthidaung, Maungdaw, and Sittwe.

The junta is offering freedom of movement to Rohingya Muslims restricted to IDP camps as part of a bid to entice them into military service amid the nationwide rollout of a conscription law.

Junta forces have told Rohingya men that if they serve in the military, each one will receive a sack of rice, a citizenship identity card, and a monthly salary of 150,000 kyats (US$ 41), Rohingya residents of Rakhine State and activists stated.

Since taking the census on Monday, junta officers have repeatedly visited the camp, trying to persuade Rohingya residents to serve in the military with an offer of free movement within Kyaukphyu township, said another camp resident.

However, the conscription law only applies to Myanmar citizens, but the citizenship of Rohingya people has been scrapped after a draconian Citizenship Law of 1982 requires individuals to prove that their ancestors lived in Myanmar before 1823 and refuses to recognize Rohingya Muslims as one of the nation's ethnic groups or list their language as a national language.

Despite the compulsory military training schedule to begin in April, junta troops arrested at least 100 men from four villages in Buthidaung Township on 18 and 19 February, and they were transferred to a nearby military base for basic military training.

Nay San Lwin, co-founder of the Free Rohingya Coalition, describes that two weeks of training would make them vulnerable either to be captured or killed on the battlefront by the battle-hardened Arakan Army (AA) rebels fighting the military junta for more than a decade. Lwin said the junta’s military will use the Rohingya foot soldiers as human shields and porters.

Rohingya to defend IDP villages

Junta troops informed Rohingya community leaders that the AA had established armed fortified camps near the Rohingya villages and that residents would have to undergo military training to defend their villages.

The junta’s troops, who are fighting the AA, know the terrain of Rakhine State better than the AA does and have public support.

Since November, the military has surrendered Pauktaw, Minbya, Mrauk-U, Kyauktaw, Myay Pon, and Taung Pyo townships in Rakhine state.

The capital of Rakhine State, Sittwe, is besieged by government troops. Civil administration officials and their families have been evacuated to safe places by commercial flights, while other officials have been shifted by Naval vessels.

Rights campaigners fear that drafting Rohingya into military service could stoke ethnic tensions in Rakhine state, while legal experts argue that the drive is unlawful, given that Myanmar has refused to recognize the Rohingya as one of the country’s ethnic groups and denied them citizenship for decades.

An estimated 1.2 million ethnic Rohingya refugees have been languishing in squalid camps in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, since 2017 after fleeing the genocide committed by Myanmar military forces.

Another 630,000 living within Rakhine State are designated stateless by the United Nations, including those who languish in camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs) and are restricted from moving freely within Rakhine state.

First published in The Daily Messenger, 25 February 2024

Saleem Samad is Deputy Editor of The Daily Messenger and an award-winning journalist. An Ashoka Fellow and recipient of the Hellman-Hammett Award. Email: saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

The fractured state of Myanmar

Myamnar rebels gains ground - Photo: Public Domain 

SALEEM SAMAD

If anybody reads Myanmar's state-run daily newspaper, the Global New Light of Myanmar, the oldest English Daily which covers news, the state Myanmar Radio and Television (MRTV), one would not fathom the crisis faced by the Myanmar government.

News coming in from dissidents, journalists and media activists inside Myanmar rebel-held regions gives diametrically opposite news, which is not comfortable for the military junta in the capital, Naypyidaw.

The rebels are upbeat when they could make the government troops withdraw from northern Rakhine State after the onslaught of the rebel Arakan Army (AA).

The AA is one of the three ethnic armies in the Brotherhood Alliance, which launched Operation 1027 against the Myanmar military dictator, which ousted an elected government of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, ending a 10-year experiment with democracy and plunging the Southeast Asian nation into bloody turmoil.

Armed insurgencies by the People's Defence Force (PDF) of the National Unity Government (NUG) have erupted throughout Myanmar in response to the military government's crackdown on anti-coup protests.

As of February 7, 2024, at least 6,337 civilians, including children, have been killed by the junta forces and 21,000 arrested.

Meanwhile, pictures and videos surfaced on social media and several other websites of the rebels, indicating that they have taken control of six towns in Rakhine State—Pauktaw, Kyauktaw, Minbya, Mrauk-U, Taungpyoletwe and Myebon—and one in Chin State, Paletwa.

The government soldiers, in retaliation, are attacking civilians in the south. The Rohingyas in the north of Rakhine State have also taken the brunt and fled from their settlement.

The guards of the Rohingya settlements have long abandoned their checkposts and the ethnic community has scattered for safety and security.

Unfortunately, the Arakan Army is equally not so kind to them. The Rohingya forced them to flee towards the coasts of the Naf River, with advice to cross into Bangladesh.

They are asked to join their relatives and neighbours living in squalid refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar.

Intensified patrols and vigilance of Bangladesh Border Guards (BGB) and Coast Guards have discouraged them from crossing the river, which borders Bangladesh with Myanmar.

Several sources in Ukhiya in Cox’s Bazar and Ghumdhum in Bandarban have indicated that some Rohingya, after taking dangerous journeys through the hill forests, have trekked into the camps.

Officials working with international NGOs have confirmed the incidents of some illegal migration and have been sheltered in the camps by relatives mostly.

The NGO officials declined to be named and said they are not expecting a huge or even moderate influx of Rohingya people, as the borders are sealed.

The refugee leaders and camp leaders are reviewing the situation across the border into Rakhine State. They are in touch with scores of Rohingyas who are living in extreme difficulties.

The Home boss and Chief of BGB have reiterated that they will not allow a single Rohingya to enter Bangladeshi territory under any circumstances.

UN Special Rapporteur on Myanmar

On the other end of the world, Myanmar’s ruling military junta has “doubled down” on civilian attacks while showing signs of becoming “increasingly desperate” by imposing military service, the UN special rapporteur UN’s Tom Andrews said at Geneva on Wednesday.

“While wounded and increasingly desperate, the Myanmar military junta remains extremely dangerous,” the UN’s Tom Andrews said in a statement.

Earlier this month, the conscription law, the junta was trying to justify and expand its pattern of forced recruitment.

The junta faces widespread armed opposition to its rule three years after seizing power from an elected civilian government and has recently suffered a series of stunning losses to an armed alliance of ethnic minority groups.

Junta Families Evacuated

On last Saturday, a naval vessel reportedly carrying family members of the junta and police personnel was seen departing from Maday Island, where the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port project is located.

Earlier, on February 15 and 16, the family members were evacuated from Ma Ei town by helicopter. Later the soldiers and police personnel were seen leaving Ma Ei police station in military vehicles.

Following the Arakan Army's capture of many towns after the conflicts erupted in Ramree, Taungup and Kyaukphyu localities, the military regime relocated their family members to Kyaukphyu, Thandwe and Ann localities. Later, the officer’s families were shifted to Yangon.

Sittwe Braced for Street Fight

Fighting continued in northern and southern Rakhine State since the AA launched an offensive against Myanmar’s junta in mid-November last year.

The AA has seized Mrauk-U, Minbya, Kyauktaw and Pauktaw towns and Paletwa in southern Chin State, along with numerous junta bases and border outposts. Only Sittwe remains to be occupied by AA.

The AA has urged the government’s Regional Operations Command in the state capital, Sittwe, to surrender. Sittwe is the junta’s administrative seat in Rakhine.

The junta forces are systematically fortifying their defence arrangements in Sittwe. They have obstructed the access of roads and even destroyed many bridges to obstruct AA advancements.

Civil administrative officials and residents have left Sittwe in fear for their lives during the street battle. Many residents cannot afford to leave and there is no way out from Sittwe if fighting breaks out.

Commodities and fuels in Sittwe are running low since the roads were blocked. Shops are selling off their stocks as they are in a hurry to leave the city.

Despite the night curfew in Sittwe, the hospitals and clinics are still operational, but the city is in panic.

The Brotherhood Alliance warned civilians of the rising danger of landmines in Rakhine State, saying the junta’s military is placing landmines around its outposts and bases there.

Nervous Junta

Junta troops arrested around 600 civilians after their flights from Yangon landed at two airports in Sittwe and Kyaukphyu city in Rakhine state, according to family members, who said the military is holding them on suspicion of attempting to join the armed rebels.

The arrests come amid the enactment of a conscription law that has sent draft-eligible civilians fleeing from Myanmar’s cities, saying they would rather leave the country or join anti-junta forces in remote border areas than fight for the military.

India-Myanmar Military Forge Ties

Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Indian Armed Forces to forge friendly ties and further cooperation.

The Vice-Chairman of the State Administration Council Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services Commander-in-Chief (Army) Vice-Senior General Soe Win held parleys with an India Army delegation led by Lt-Gen Harjeet Singh Sahi, the General Officer Commanding III Corps of the Indian Armed Forces, at the capital Naypyidaw on Wednesday, according to the official daily The Global New Light of Myanmar.

They cordialy discussed friendly relations between Myanmar and India and the two armed forces and promotion of further cooperation, and plans to cooperate in peace and stability, security and development at the border regions between the two countries.

First published in The Daily Mesenger, 23 February 2024

Saleem Samad, is Deputy Editor of The Daily Messenger, an award-winning independent journalist, and recipient of the Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at <saleemsamad@hotmail.com>; Twitter (X) @saleemsamad

India wants Bangladesh to join key trilateral highway in outreach to ASEAN

SALEEM SAMAD

India wishes Bangladesh to join the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway Project (IMT Highway), which envisages connecting South Asia and South-East Asia to achieve the broader agenda of Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).

The ambitious three-nation highway is one of the biggest infrastructure projects in the region that will connect India with Thailand through Myanmar is a central plank of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Act East Policy” which seeks to boost trade and connectivity with Southeast Asia.

The 3,660 km long IMT Highway will be linking Moreh (India) – Bagan (Myanmar) – Mae Sot (Thailand) and expects completion this year.

Meanwhile, India has completed 50 per cent of the construction of the 120 km Kalewa-Yagyi stretch in Myanmar to the level of an international highway and rebuilding 69 bridges and adjacent approach roads on the highway.

India and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plan to extend this route to Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam (which is operational since 2015).

The development economists predict the connectivity will generate annually, an estimated US $70 billion in incremental GDP and 20 million in incremental aggregate employment by 2025, and India has offered US $1 billion line-of-credit for the India-ASEAN connectivity projects. It is at the centre of transport diplomacy among ASEAN countries.

In 2015, India proposed a trilateral Motor Vehicle Agreement – MVA with Myanmar and Thailand for the seamless movement of passenger and cargo vehicles among the three countries.

In December 2017, Myanmar stated that it needed time to review all of its connectivity agreements, before proceeding with the MVA.

The hiccups by Myanmar immensely delayed the Imphal (India) – Mandalay (Myanmar) bus service despite India and Myanmar have signed the MVA in 2018.

On 14 July, top officials sat in the South Block in New Delhi to look into physical possibilities to link Bangladesh to the highway project.

At the India-Myanmar Border Connectivity meeting, a report was presented by the Land Ports Authority of India (LPAI) and discussed modalities to connect Bangladesh.

Prabhat Kumar, Special Secretary of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) at the high-level meeting said that if Bangladesh is connected to this highway, it will serve as a unique commercial link between the whole of South Asia and Southeast Asia, reported Dhaka Tribune.

Bangladesh has expressed its eagerness to join the IMT highway to boost regional connectivity for greater economic gains with South East nations in 2020.

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina first expressed her interest in land connectivity with Thailand via Myanmar during their virtual summit with her Indian counterpart Narendra Modi in December 2020, reported the Daily Star.

She expressed keen interest in the ongoing India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway project and sought technical support from India for Bangladesh to connect with this project to enhance connectivity between the regions of South Asia and South East Asia, said a joint statement.

Hasina is expected to follow up with Modi on the formalities of joining the IMT Highway project and other pending issues when she meets up for a bilateral parley with her Indian counterpart in coming September to attend the 18th G20 summit of heads of states and governments in New Delhi.

Meanwhile, India and Thailand have agreed to include Bangladesh in the trilateral highway project.

Bangladesh Foreign Secretary Masud Bin Momen has said New Delhi and Bangkok are happy to have Bangladesh in the Trilateral Highway project.

Well, Bangladesh is waiting for a proactive nod from Myanmar. The neighbouring country has yet to react to Dhaka joining the project.

Earlier, Bangladesh wished to join the Bangladesh China India Myanmar (BCIM) corridor, which unfortunately has made no progress. Also, India skipped the Belt and Road Forum which led to the exclusion of the BCIM Corridor from the list of projects covered by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). At any rate the BCIM predates the launch of the BRI by China.

Remember a senior Chinese diplomat in Kolkata boasted of introducing Bullet Train from Kunming to Kolkata via Bangladesh and Myanmar in 2015, reported by Press Trust of India (PTI).

The diplomat assured that the much-vaunted BRI is not envisaged by China to conquer the world or its neighbourhood, instead, the bullet train project would be implemented through consultations and discussions Nevertheless, the project has never seen the light of the day.

Keeping the Chinese plan, Bangladesh agreed to railroad connectivity with the so-called Trans-Asian Railway, which was supposed to connect India-Bangladesh-Myanmar-China and it seems has lost its steam.

Recently, Bangladesh has scrapped the construction of a 129-kilometre railway track from Dohazari to Gundhum, bordering Myanmar and instead, the budget was diverted to lay a high-speed railway track to the sea resort holiday destination in Cox’s Bazar from the port city Chattagram.

The crisis of 1.2 million Rohingya refugees living in squalid camps in the southeast of the country has frozen the relations between the two countries. Thus, the land and railway connectivity with Myanmar was dropped for the time being.

It is also understood, that the construction of railway tracks through Myanmar’s restive Rakhine state will be challenging. The Tatmadaw (Myanmar forces) is fighting a multi-headed insurgency with armed ethnic rebellions and newly raised nationalist resistance forces.

The armed insurrections intensified after the ouster of a democratically elected Prime Minister Aung San Suu Kyi by the military junta in February 2021. The Nobel laureate Suu Kyi has been sentenced to seven years imprisonment.

Bangladesh, India, and Myanmar, the three neighbours, have shared a history, especially when the British Raj dominated the region. Therefore, these neighbours can easily improve their relations in multi-dimensional aspects by promoting cooperation, writes Jubeda Chowdhury, a researcher on regional issues.

She further says, if the Bangladesh-Myanmar-Thailand-India Trilateral Highway project and the BCIM corridor were integrated, ASEAN members could access the markets of Bangladesh, northern-east India, and the Himalayan landlocked countries of Bhutan, and Nepal.

First published in the India Narrative, New Delhi, India, July 20, 2023

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. Views expressed are personal. Twitter: @saleemsamad