China ‘belting’ Pakistan on the road to debt trap

Gwadar Port in Pakistan occupied Balochistan

SALEEM SAMAD

The political debacle of the ambitious Gwadar International Port built by the Chinese is yet to be fully operational in Pakistan. It was found that the challenge was unbearable and that the threat perception has increased in the Balochistan province.

The security threat posed by Baloch separatists and armed nationalists demanding the independence of Balochistan has caused a ripple of fear for the future of the Gwadar Port and its connectivity with Central Asia.

Recently, “all-weather friends” China and Pakistan signed a precursor deal to develop the Karachi coastline at the cost of $3.5 billion -- what is being called another debt trap. China’s shift from Gwadar to Karachi has prompted Pakistan’s prime minister Imran Khan to dub the “jackpot” project “a revolution” in his Tweet to develop Karachi’s coast.

China puts strategy over investment and ignores profits. The Chinese Communist Party’s leadership has shifted from high-risk lending to hedging its bets. China’s President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project seems to have hit a speed bump after reaching Gwadar. In fact, BRI is losing steam. Malaysia has cancelled projects worth $11.58bn. Similarly, Kazakhstan shook their head to say no to a $1.5bn investment, followed by Bolivia, which has turned down projects worth $1bn.

Some countries admit that they have fallen into a debt trap and the mega infrastructure is being colonized, like the $306.7m Hambantota International Port in Sri Lanka built by China in November 2010.

In 2016, a 70% stake of the port was leased to China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited (CM Port) for 99 years for $1.12bn. The lease has recently been questioned by Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who now wants the port back.

Nearly 35% of the projects are struggling with corruption and protests, while several other countries are contemplating quitting BRI debt trap projects. Many countries where China has offered ambitious BRI proposals could not contemplate where and when they were going to fall into a debt trap. Pakistan is one of them. They know where the trap is. The Sunni Muslim majority nation knows they are falling into China’s debt trap. Despite the debt trap, a strong pro-Chinese lobby promotes Chinese megaprojects, while the politicians have to swallow the Chinese red pills.

The $62bn Gwadar project envisages linking with the persecuted Uyghur Muslims in East Turkistan (now Xinjiang Province) of China, and is being built through disputed territory in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan-administered Kashmir, and Balochistan. Balochistan was once an independent country, before Pakistan’s independence in 1947 and its forcible occupation in March 1948.

Recently, China is extremely concerned about the safety and security of its personnel engaged in construction in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects, including the Karakoram Highway linking with Gwadar.

Gwadar has been leased to China for 43 years and the prospect of the Chinese navy converting the port as a strategic base will invite greater security issues, as China has a grand plan to expand its maritime presence in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman --  a major global oil trade route.

The United States and its allies in the Gulf reckon China’s hegemony in the Gulf will be a security concern. America thinks the presence of the Chinese navy will provide military backup to Iran’s naval patrol in the Persian Gulf, from yet another Chinese-built Chabahar port in Iran, not far from Gwadar.

First published in the Dhaka Tribune, 9 November 2021

Saleem Samad, is an independent journalist, media rights defender, and recipient of the Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He can be reached at <saleemsamad@hotmail.com>; Twitter @saleemsamad

Mock Fight: Over J&K Between India And Pakistan

SALEEM SAMAD

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government made moves to end the special status of Jammu and Kashmir under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution and bifurcate the state into two Union Territories.
The decision left Pakistan unnerved and Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan launched an all-out campaign against India. Khan's first axe fell upon downgrading diplomatic relations and suspension of bilateral trade with India, sent out emissaries to the United Nations, China and to Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to muster support against India.

Jammu and Kashmir (J-K), a landlocked disputed territory in South Asia was the reason for several wars and border skirmishes between India and Pakistan since the birth of two newly independent nations in 1947. The war was fought between India and Pakistan over the princely state of J-K from 1947 to 1948. It was the first of four Indo-Pakistan Wars fought between the two neighbors. Unfortunately, both countries claim J-K as their integral territory.

Well, not an outrageous claim, but ignoring J-K was once an independent princely state and British colonialist had given respect to the status of self-rule.

In 1846, after the Sikh defeat in the First Anglo-Sikh War, and upon the purchase of the region from the British under the Treaty of Amritsar, the Raja of Jammu, Gulab Singh, became the new ruler of Kashmir. In October of 1947, the Pashtun tribal militants surprise raid in a bid to occupy the picturesque valley of the Muslim majority Kashmir, backed by not so organized Pakistan Army to occupy the territory on the excuse of much-disputed "two-nation theory" which divided India into Muslim and Hindu nations through a bloodletting partition and mass exodus.

Maharaja Hari Singh appealed to the Indian government for military assistance and fled to India. On January 1, 1949, a ceasefire was agreed, with 65 percent of the territory under Indian control and the remainder with Pakistan. In 1957, Kashmir was formally incorporated into the Indian Union.
It was granted special status under Article 370 of India's Constitution, which ensures, among other things, that Indians Nationals cannot buy property there. The signing of the Instrument of Accession, ceding Kashmir in Jammu on October 26 and was accepted by India's last Governor-General Lord Mountbatten on October 27, 1947.

Since the Accession Day, the Kashmiri separatists observe the date as Black Day. Every year on that particular date, intermittent clashes with security forces are a regular phenomenon.

On the other hand, hell broke loose in Islamabad! The bad news came from the OIC, which called for resolving Kashmir issue through bilateral negotiations after Pakistan sought its support over Article 370. The OIC did not hesitate to state that "following a request from the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, an urgent meeting of the OIC Contact Group" on 6 August 2019 to review the recent developments in Jammu and Kashmir.

In the concluding statement, the OIC raised concerns about "gross human rights violations in Jammu and Kashmir" but called for a "negotiated settlement" through talks between the two countries.
However, Pakistan's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Maleeha Lodhi appeal found no weight in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) with its president Joanna Wronecka refusing to make any comments. Pakistan's heightened campaign equally failed and gets cold feet at the United Nations. The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in response to Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi's complaints reminded him of the Shimla Agreement 1972.

The historic Agreement, signed after Pakistan's humiliation defeat in 1971 war which created an independent Bangladesh, the states that India and Pakistan will settle all their issues through peaceful talks bilaterally. Another blow came from the Taliban, which was considered a stooge of Pakistan Army, rebuked Pakistan over the abrogation of special status to J&K. Its spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahed said, "Linking the issue of Kashmir with that of Afghanistan by some parties will not aid in improving the crisis at hand because the issue of Afghanistan is not related."

Recently, Shah Mehmood Qureshi flew to Beijing holding talks with Chinese leaders including Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.  After the meet, China issued a statement which dashed the hopes of Qureshi that its all-weather friend would stand by Pakistan more strongly. The Chinese statement says, "The Kashmir issue is a dispute left from colonial history. It should be properly and peacefully resolved based on the UN Charter, relevant UN Security Council resolutions and bilateral agreement."
China, of course, reacted strongly to the Modi government's move on Jammu and Kashmir but issued a guarded statement. Its response was limited to Ladakh being made a Union Territory. China has laid claim on Ladakh ever since it captured Aksai Chin in 1962 war. Their concern was regarding Modi government's move to declare Ladakh as Union Territory.

In bitter frustration of getting rebuked from International Forums, Shah Mehmood Qureshi has asked Pakistanis to not live in a "fool's paradise" by expecting United Nations Security Council to "wait with garlands" to support Islamabad's contentions regarding India's decision to abrogate Kashmir's special status.
Qureshi's comment came a day after Russia becomes the first P-5 member to support India over the abrogation of Article 370. The United Arab Emirates - UAE, a major ally of Saudi Arabia has reacted to the developments in South Asia, calling for restraint over the Kashmir dispute.

For both nuke-armed countries, the Kashmir conflict is the water-security issue and the growing populations their livelihood depends on the Indus River basin. The basin's four main rivers flow into Pakistan (60%), and in India (20%). Both the countries have constructed several mega irrigation and hydro-electric projects on the rivers and tributaries of the basin. Notwithstanding of crisis of Kashmir, neither India will give up J-K to Pakistan and equally it is true that Pakistan doesn't have much firepower to take Kashmir from India.

Given the strategic gap between Indian and Pakistan, The Pakistani Army is in no position to undertake any adventure against India, especially at a time when Pakistan is going through an acute economic crisis. Any further burden on the exchequer would cripple the economy of Pakistan.  There is also widespread speculation that Pakistan Army doesn't have an appetite to take a risk, at this time, with a puppet government. If there is any misery, the Pak army would not be able to shift the blame on a civilian government.

First published in The New Nation, August 16, 2019

Saleem Samad, an independent journalist, recipient of Ashoka Fellow (USA) and Hellman-Hammett Award. Twitter @saleemsamad; Email: saleemsamad@hotmail.com