India shies over Yunus-Modi talks

SALEEM SAMAD

India has not declined a meeting with Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus, Chief adviser of Bangladesh Interim Government and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

South Block in New Delhi did not respond to a request for Yunus-Modi state-level bilateral meeting in New Delhi. Through diplomatic channels Yunus administration requested for a bilateral visit in December 2024.

Nor did Delhi respond to a meeting on the sidelines of BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) on 3-4 April in Bangkok, Thailand.

Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar remained non-committal, saying “Bangladesh’s request for a meeting between its interim government’s Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus and Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the upcoming BIMSTEC Summit is under consideration.”

BIMSTEC is a regional organization of seven countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand) focused on promoting economic and technical cooperation in the Bay of Bengal region, with its secretariat located in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

The platform dropped Pakistan and Maldives giving a flimsy excuse that the countries do not share the Bay of Bengal. Whereas, Nepal and Bhutan do not have shores with the Bay of Bengal but are said to be beneficiaries of the sea.

Meanwhile, the independent Indian newspaper The Hindu reported on 25 March that Yunus wanted to visit India before China, but did not receive a positive response, quoting Press Secretary Shafiqul Alam to Prof Yunus’s administration.

Yunus seeks bilateral ties with India before visiting China, pitching Bangladesh as a business-friendly destination, writes Kallol Bhattacherjee in the Hindu.

Bangladesh is still waiting for a response from India for a meeting between Yunus and Modi on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC summit.

Chief Adviser of the interim government of Bangladesh desired to travel to India before visiting China but Dhaka’s request for the visit did not elicit a “positive” Indian response, said Alam.

Yunus is the second leader from South Asia to be hosted in China in four months. Nepal’s Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli travelled to China in December 2024 on an official visit.

Like the formal request to extradite ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in December last year, the meeting between the two heads of government, Delhi remains absolutely silent. Indian government remains conspicuously tight lipped over the possible bilateral meeting.

Sources in the Bangladesh Ministry of Foreign Affairs who is privy to the exchange of diplomatic messages said there could be multiple reasons, why India continues to be silent over the requests from Bangladesh.

First, India-Bangladesh ties should not be ‘regime-specific’, says Bangladesh Foreign Affairs Adviser Mohmmad Touhid Hossain. Second, India is officially not prepared to make any commitment to the extradition of Hasina.

Third, how will Modi respond to Yunus when he asks him when India will extradite her to stand trial for crimes against humanity responsible for the deaths of over 1400 students and protesters?

The United Nations High Commission for Human Rights, in their 114-page investigation report, says “The brutal response was a calculated and well-coordinated strategy by the former Government [of Awami League] to hold onto power in the face of mass opposition,” UN Human Rights (OHCHR), Chief Volker Türk, said.

“There are reasonable grounds to believe hundreds of extrajudicial killings, extensive arbitrary arrests and detentions, and torture, were carried out with the knowledge, coordination and direction of the political leadership and senior security officials as part of a strategy to suppress the protests.”

The UN fact-finding mission report directly blames Hasina for ordering law enforcement agencies to shoot at protesters with live bullets to neutralize the anti-government street uprising.

Indian media has raised storms on news broadcasts and talk shows that India cannot invite a “stooge” of the United States and China, an unelected leader, etcetera, etcetera. Most importantly, he does not represent the people of Bangladesh which was the first reason for India not responding to Bangladesh’s request for an official meeting.

Bilateral political history of Bangladesh says it differently. At least three military dictators made official visits to Delhi. Like General Ziaur Rahman (1977-1981), General Hussain Muhammad Ershad (1982-1990) and Lt. Gen Moeen U Ahmed (2006-2008), despite not having the people’s mandate.

Indian ruling and opposition parties never objected to the bilateral meetings with three military dictators. The Indian media was not vociferous against their official visits.

The Indian media, also joined by the Indian ruling party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), failed to reconcile with the forcible departure of their all-weather friend Sheikh Hasina, who has taken refuge on the outskirts of Delhi. Jaishankar last week told the Consultative Committee on External Affairs in Delhi that India was aware of the mounting discontent against Hasina leading up to the ouster of her government on 5 August 2024, but could not intervene as it lacked the necessary leverage over the former prime minister.

Admitting tensions between Delhi and Dhaka, especially after India granted refuge to Hasina, the Interim Government in Bangladesh has begun engaging with India, Jaishankar told the Indian lawmakers.

Commenting on the influence of “external actors” in Bangladesh, Jaishankar said he viewed China as a regional “competitor” rather than an “adversary”, writes The Hindu.

Indian External Affairs Minister Jaishankar also told the meeting that SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) was inactive because of Pakistan’s approach and thus India is trying to strengthen BIMSTEC.

In the worst-case scenario, Narendra Modi is expected to drop attending BIMSTEC at the last moment and instead send an emissary on his behalf to attend the summit. Thus, the Modi-Yunus sideline meeting will not happen.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan on 26 March 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Rohingya Refugees Return Dim, Dimmer, and Dimmest

SALEEM SAMAD

Three significant developments have occurred in a week which once again brought the much-talked-about Rohingya refugee crisis to the global media.

First, last week United Nations Secretary General António Guterres visited the Rohingya refugees living in squalid camps in south-east Bangladesh. Besides Bangladesh, Rohingyas are languishing in camps in India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. The majoritarian Rohingyas are camped in Bangladesh.

Amid aid cuts, the Secretary-General emphasized that the international community cannot turn its back on the Rohingya crisis. “We cannot accept that the international community forgets about the Rohingyas,” he said, adding that he will “speak loudly” to world leaders that more support is urgently needed.

UN aid efforts in Rohingya camps are in jeopardy following reductions of funds announced by major donors, including the United States and several European nations. Guterres described Cox’s Bazar (where the Rohingya camps are situated) as “ground zero” for the impact of these cuts, warning of a looming humanitarian disaster if immediate action is not taken.

The visiting guest joined with the Rohingya for Iftar (not on the same menu as the refugees). The overwhelming majority of Rohingyas are Muslim, among an estimated 1.2 million refugees. A small number are Hindus and Christians. The Secretary-General could not promise how he would augment food aid and the deadline for the safe and sustainable return of the refugees to Myanmar.

Despite being a poor country, Bangladesh is hosting over one million Rohingya refugees who fled violence in neighboring Myanmar. The largest exodus followed brutal attacks by Tatmadaw (Myanmar security forces) in 2017. A series of dreadful events prompted the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights to describe the atrocities as a “textbook example of ethnic cleansing.”

Myanmar military junta under General Min Aung Hlaing who has ruled Myanmar as the State Administration Council (SAC) chairman since seizing power in the  February 2021 coup d’état overthrowing the elected government of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

Hlaing refuses to hold parley with the United Nations officials and does not speak with Bangladesh. Also has imposed restrictions on international NGOs and aid agencies. Such arrogance became visible after the United Nations Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Myanmar, led by Marzuki Darusman, said that Min Aung Hlaing, along with four other Generals (Soe Win, Aung Kyaw Zaw, Maung Maung Soe, and Than Oo) should be tried for war crimes and crimes against humanity (including genocide) in the International Criminal Court (ICC), at The Hague, The Netherlands.

Recently, the Rakhine state, 36,762 square kilometers (14,194 sq mi) bordering Bangladesh has been overrun by battle-hardened Arakan Army (AA) guerillas. The AA dashed all hopes for the repartition of Rohingyas when the guerilla headquarters issued an official statement extending an olive branch to hold dialogue with Bangladesh authorities but on one condition. The agenda for discussion should not include the return of Bengali Muslims (which means Rohingya).

However, AA urges to continue trade and commerce, border security, and a few other bilateral issues. Bangladesh deliberately did not respond. Dhaka does not recognize ethnic military command to be a legitimate authority to hold official talks. Myanmar military junta and the rebels have similar mindsets identifying the Rohingyas as “Bengali Muslims” who have been blamed for illegally migrating from neighboring Bangladesh since a century ago.

The draconian Citizenship Law of 1982 requires individuals to prove that their ancestors lived in Myanmar before 1823, refuse to recognize Rohingya Muslims as one of the nation’s ethnic groups and delist their language as a national language.

Bangladesh has earlier raised the refugee crisis at several international platforms including the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), the Commonwealth, the United Nations, and other global summits. Despite limited or no contributions for the ‘stateless’ Rohingya, instead the world Muslim countries lauded Bangladesh for providing food and shelter to them.

Unfortunately, several attempts to repatriate the refugees fell flat in 2018 and 2019. Instead, Bangladesh blames the intransigent policy of Suu Kyi’s government, which was ousted by military leaders and placed her under house arrest in February 2021. Academicians and researchers on forced migration and the refugee crisis are convinced that there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

Second, the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) warns of a critical funding shortfall for its emergency response operations in Bangladesh, jeopardizing food assistance for over one million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh.

Without urgent new funding, monthly rations will be halved to US$6 per person, down from US$12.50 per person – just as refugees were preparing to observe Eid, the biggest Muslim festival at the end of Ramadan at the end of this month. To sustain full rations, WFP urgently requires US$15 million for April, and US$81 million until the end of 2025.

In recent months, as conflicts in Rakhine state were at the peak between AA and the junta’s soldiers, fresh waves of Rohingya refugees exceeding 100,000 have crossed into Bangladesh. The continued trickle of Rohingya seeking safety has further contributed to greater strain on already overstretched resources.

Bangladesh’s government for decades refused to recognize the Rohingya as “refugees”, in an excuse that the government has not signed the Convention on the Status of Refugees of 1951.

For a million population with no legal status, no freedom of movement outside the camps, confined inside barbed wires and no sustainable livelihood opportunities, further cuts will exacerbate protection and security risks, says the UN agency.

The vulnerability is likely to heighten risks of exploitation, trafficking, prostitution, and domestic violence among women and girls. Children are expected to drop out of learning schools and be forced into child labor. There will be a spike in child brides as families resort to desperate measures to survive on meager rations.

Third, on the day when Fortify Rights released its 78-page research report, “I May Be Killed Any Moment: Killings, Abductions, Torture, and Other Serious Violations by Rohingya Militant Groups in Bangladesh” in Dhaka, the special security forces nabbed the Islamic jihadist Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) supremo Ataullah Abu Ammar Jununi, commonly known as Ataullah near the capital Dhaka on 18 March without a firefight.

Fortify Rights, an international human rights investigation NGO, recommends that the Government of Bangladesh and international justice mechanisms – including the Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar and the ICC – investigate Rohingya militant organizations operational in the refugee camps in Bangladesh and prosecute those responsible for war crimes.

Such specific Intel in capturing Ataullah must have been shared by Pakistan’s military establishment in Rawalpindi. International media has been blaming Pakistan’s spy agency ISI for recruitment, training and funding for ARSA.

Indian security agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) has kept ARSA under strict surveillance. Monitoring their leader’s sleeper cell, monetary exchanges, and their covert activities.

ARSA first came into the limelight in August 2017 after the jihadist overran several Myanmar’s Border Guards Forces outposts along Bangladesh-Myanmar international borders. After the firefight, ARSA fell back to Bangladesh’s no-man’s-land, which is covered by hill forests and scores of streams.

Earlier, Bangladesh, Myanmar and India refused to accept ARSA as a jihadist outfit. The militant group was described as ‘Rohingya Muslim vigilantes’ with a limited ordinance and disorganized, therefore nothing to be worried about was in their mind.

ARSA’s attacks sparked Tatmadaw’s (Myanmar military) to commit a brutal genocidal campaign against Rohingya Muslims. The troops torched hundreds of villages and went on a rampage for months despite international calls to cease brutality against the Rohingyas.

The Naypyidaw labeled ARSA as an “extremist Bengali terrorists, also Rohingya Muslim terrorists,” warning that its goal is to establish an Islamic state in the Rakhine state. Such an ambitious objective will be difficult to implement in a Buddhist-majority region.

Myanmar blames Pakistan’s dreaded Pakistan’s spy agency ISI for its share in mentoring the jihadist outfit. Their theory that ARSA has been raised, funded, and provides logistics and indoctrination was masterminded by ISI and is also believed by both Bangladesh and India.

Simultaneously, India became worried about the presence of the jihadist outfit at the border of Bangladesh-Myanmar-India. The skirmish with Myanmar troops has also raised the eyebrows of Bangladesh and expressed alarm on the visible presence of ARSA in its territory.

The ARSA militants were mostly recruited from the Rohingya refugees. It was not to anybody’s surprise that the leadership was Pakistan-born Saudi émigrés. They raise funds mostly from Rohingyas living in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Several years ago, in a rare interview with an international media, Ataullah, chief of ARSA said that their objective would be “open war” and “continued [armed] resistance” against the Myanmar government until “citizenship rights were reinstated” of Rohingyas in Myanmar.

The jihadist leader denied having links to the Islamic State or ISIS in a video and said he turned his back on support from Pakistan-based jihadists. The Bangladesh security agencies were skeptical of his claim.

A security expert in Bangladesh explains that ARSA has ideological differences from other terror outfits in the region and has reason to distance itself from the transnational jihadist network.

ARSA operatives are responsible for widespread abduction, extortions, tortures and executions of suspects. The crimes are committed to collect funds for local operations in the world’s largest Rohingya camps, says Fortify Rights in their latest report.

Cash-starved Al Yakin, the volunteer group of ARSA is mostly responsible for gang war in the refugee camps to establish dominance over other non-militant groups in the sprawling camps.

Often breaking news from Rohingya refugee camps of robbers, dacoits, and armed gangs killed in encounters by anti-crime forces – the slain victims are radicalized Rohingya militants.

Fortify Rights urges that Bangladesh should hold the Rohingya militants accountable for war crimes. Bangladesh’s Interim Government should cooperate with international justice mechanisms to investigate crimes and bring potential war criminals to justice.

Donor governments should work with Bangladesh to redouble services for Rohingya at risk, including protective spaces and third-country resettlement, said Fortify Rights.

In an interview that aired on 4 March 2025, the head of Bangladesh Interim Government, Prof Muhammad Yunus, spoke about violence in the refugee camps, saying: “There is lots of violence, lots of drugs, lots of paramilitary activities inside the camps.”

“War crimes are usually committed within the immediate theater of armed conflict but, in this case, specific crimes in Bangladesh are directly connected to the war in Myanmar and constitute war crimes,” says John Quinley, Director at Fortify Rights.

Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh have suffered years of violence and killings at the hands of Rohingya militant groups. Reported killings by camp-based militants numbered 22 in 2021, 42 in 2022, 90 in 2023, and at least 65 in 2024.

The majority of the killings by Rohingya militants documented by Fortify Rights occurred with impunity in the camps, creating a climate of fear for all camp residents, said Fortify Rights.

ARSA and a rival Islamist militant outfit, the Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO) are engaged in Myanmar’s internal armed conflict. They are both fighting with the Myanmar junta and against the Arakan Army, with very little impact militarily.

To reinforce their armed campaigns inside Myanmar, ARSA, and RSO have abducted refugees in Bangladesh and forced them to fight in Myanmar. Such acts are grave violations of the laws of war and should be investigated as possible war crimes.

The ICC has already established jurisdiction and opened an investigation into cross-border atrocity crimes occurring against Rohingya in both Bangladesh and Myanmar. This should include crimes committed by ARSA and similar groups, said Fortify Rights.

In 2019, the British-born ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Ahmad Khan at the time said the court was “aware of a number of acts of violence allegedly committed by ARSA,” noting that the allegations would be kept “under review.”

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan on 23 March 2025 

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Bangladesh Denies India Thwarts Pakistan’s Engineered Coup!

SALEEM SAMAD

An Indian news portal, Swarajya, published an exclusive article with the headline “India Helped Thwart a Coup Against Bangladesh Army Chief by Pro-Pak Islamist Generals,” written by journalist Jaideep Mazumdar. Swarajya periodical was launched in 1956. The media boasts of ethical clarity, intellectual honesty, and the ability to speak truth to power, accentuating his reputation as a bold journalist.

The question is how ethical and honest the article carries on conspiracy to a coup plot by Pakistan which is fortunately unearthed by Indian hawks at the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), a spy agency that claims to have shared encrypted Intel to alert Bangladesh armed forces headquarters. There are several issues which need to be put on the table. First, why would Pakistan’s dreaded spy agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) go for a half-baked coup plot, which eventually did not see the light of day?

Second, why would Bangladesh’s military headquarters in the capital Dhaka take the crucial Indian military information seriously, when nearly 1400 students and protesters were shot and killed during the July-August revolution to topple the autocrat Sheikh Hasina and India and Indian media remained tight-lipped?

Let’s presume that the plot was successful. Millions of students and protesters would pour into the streets of Bangladesh protesting the illegal coup d’état, which goes against the spirit of the Monsoon Revolution. The nation would plunge into a bloody civil war. Bangladesh Army is divided into several regional commanders based in 31 cantonments distributed among the infantry, artillery, armored corps, and other vital units.

Mazumdar, who writes on Indian current affairs and India’s neighbors does not know it will be very difficult to muster the allegiance of 10 regional commanders to join the mutiny, which they will be able to understand in an hour that the plot would not serve their purpose. To stay in power, the mutineers will have to slaughter thousands of protesters in the streets and arrest tens of thousands, which will turn into a massive headache for the soldiers to contain them in the long run.

The mutineers know that the people do not listen to state broadcast radio. It will be difficult to ventilate their crucial messages. The alternative would be to create a social media channel to keep their propaganda kicking. As Mazumdar writes the coup engineered by Pakistan military establishment will usher in pro-Pakistan elements in power with the moral support of the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Isami.

Several senior retired officers, who have privy to military affairs have confided that the story by Mazumdar is fictitious and has several flaws in information of name, ranks, and position. Most importantly the alleged plotter Lieutenant General Muhammad Faizur Rahman, who was supposed to replace the current COAS is still in service.

The other half a dozen Generals who reportedly supported Rahman are still in service and have been reassigned to new positions, according to retired officers. Well, Jamaat-e-Islami has yet to apologize for supporting and abetting the marauding Pakistan military during the liberation war in 1971. The Jamaat-e-Islami youths were recruited to raise an Islamic militia and Al Badr, a secret death squad responsible for abduction and execution without mercy.

They were trained and also provided weapons and logistics to hunt and eliminate suspected Mukti Bahini guerillas and independence sympathizers. The victims were mostly Hindus.

Most political analysts argue that the Jamaat will not make such a suicidal decision, which will destroy their political career. They did make a political blunder in 1971 and took four decades to stand on their feet. Next time if the Islamist party supports an illegal military junta, the party will opt for self-destruction.

Salauddin Babar, editor of pro-Jamaat newspaper Dainik Naya Diganta says Jamaat-e-Islami is a political party and has learned to keep their heads above the water during the Awami League government of Sheikh Hasina’s repressive regimes.

Thousands of the party leaders and members had been in prison on charges of Islamic terrorism and destabilizing the country. Jamaat has been able to stand firm on their political indoctrination. Babar believes that Jamaat will never take a shortcut to power on a piggy-back of the military. Instead, they would demand the mutineers to hold a free and fair inclusive election. This will irk the plotters.

Then who is the alternative Islamist party? Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh is a madrassa-based platform that has millions of students and followers in small cities and rural areas. The organization opposes Deoband’s Islamic theology of liberalism, and respect for others’ religious practices, culture, and tradition.

The military leaders will have to rely on the support of Hefazat-e-Islam. The armed militia will eventually turn the country into Talibanism. Which will be chaotic and would be difficult for the rogue military to bridle them.

The tide has turned around. India as a victorious army in 1971 was a catalyst in the historic surrender of the marauding Pakistan military to protect the sovereignty and integrity of the eastern province. The Indians had fondled Bangladesh since its independence. It cannot be ignored that India is the largest neighbor and its borders are wrapped around Bangladesh.

Pakistan, to avenge the humiliating defeat is expected to fiddle Bangladesh which was not friendly with Islamabad. The country’s three regimes, out of five were not hostile to Pakistan. Islamabad should be contended with the diplomatic relations. Nobel laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus extended warm hearts to Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif when the two met at a summit in Cairo. The meeting turned the relations from cold to warm.

After the Mujib-Bhutto official meetup in February 1974, the relations apparently became warm. When Mujib attended the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit in Lahore, Pakistan and later Bhutto paid an official visit to Bangladesh and planted a tree sapling at the National Martyrs Memorial for those killed during the brutal birth of Bangladesh. Everything went well.

Trade and commerce between the two countries resumed and hatred on both sides significantly thawed. Meanwhile, scores of Pakistani industrialists and business entrepreneurs have relocated their textile factories in Bangladesh since 2000, according to Express Tribune newspaper. The textile products were destined for European and American markets.

The production by Pakistan industrialists in Bangladesh will further multiply when the Trump administration enforces a trade embargo with China. Export analysts say the Bangladesh market for ready-made garments (RMG) will be able to make a dent in garments sold to Walmart, Amazon, Gap, Levi Strauss, Macy’s, Nike and several other giant clothes retailers in the United States.

Dr Imtiaz Ahmed, a professor at Dhaka University and a political scientist said Pakistan will not jeopardize such an ongoing opportunity which will lead to the Trump administration’s imposing trade sanctions on a military administration in Bangladesh after the takeover of the country through an unconstitutional method.

Most importantly, the Bangladesh Army is trained in defensive combat tactics and crowd control. Bangladesh has negative threats of war from its neighbors (India and Myanmar). The military is trained to be deployed in the United Nations peacekeeping missions. Several contingents are readied to be deployed in several war-torn countries in Africa and Haiti, in the Caribbean.

Bangladesh is a significant contributor to UN peacekeeping missions, having deployed over 160,000 peacekeepers to 54 missions in 40 countries, with 6,802 currently deployed in 9 missions.

A foot soldier’s lifetime income comes from peacekeeping. The soldier invests in housing, buying arable lands, and setting up trading stores in their hometown. With military wages and benefits, it is not possible to live a life free from poverty.

If the peacekeeping mission is jeopardized, the soldiers will revolt against their commanding officers and there is the worst possibility that they may take extreme measures, which occurred on 7th November 1975. The soldiers will disobey the commands of their officers performing martial law duties. In such situation, the nation will plunge into a long-drawn civil war.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which advocates Hindutva means ‘Hindu-ness’. BJP’s inherent political ideology asserts that Hindu nationalism as an Indian national identity is not at all happy that their all-weather friend Sheikh Hasina has been ousted and sent to India to live in exile.

The South Block in New Delhi could not ascertain that the United States, Great Britain and Schengen (European Union) visas would be denied and stamped visas would be revoked.

For now, Delhi had taken a rat in their throat, which they cannot swallow nor vomit. They are in limbo with their guest Hasina. Admitted a senior Indian diplomat based in Dhaka.

Muhammad Yunus, the present head of government has reiterated that Bangladesh wants to have good relations with India. Possibly BJP explicitly does not believe and South Block has some reservations about improving bilateral relations.

For the time being, Bangladesh and India have developed love-and-hate relations. Both countries cannot avoid it but have lots of distrust, suspicion, and pessimism.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 18 March 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Bangladesh Election Schedule

SALEEM SAMAD

The inherent weaknesses of Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus’s interim government has prompted Chief of Army Staff, General Waker-Uz-Zaman, to call for an elected government. His statement on 24 February made it clear to the government, political parties, and student leaders responsible for waging the July-August Monsoon Revolution last year, which ousted Sheikh Hasina’s autocratic rule, that 18 months is enough time to hold a general election.

Prof Yunus has announced that the election could be held in December this year. However, his Press Secretary, Shafiq ul Alam, said it could be held either in December or January 2026. The election date to parliament will be announced at the decision of the Election Commission, which is not an independent body. Earlier, Yunus has repeatedly said that the elections will be held only after reforms of crucial state institutions take place to ensure democracy, accountability, and transparency of the government and the officials.

The General repeated twice that the election should be free, fair and inclusive. The questions that come to mind are: What does he mean by inclusivity? Did he mean that no political parties should be left out from contesting the parliamentary elections?

On the other hand, the students have been agitating that Sheikh Hasina led Awami League should be banned and Yunus should not invite the Jatiya Party to any official dialogue.

aThe East Pakistan Awami Muslim League is the oldest party and was born only a few years after the birth of Pakistan. The founders of the party, who defected from the Muslim League in a bid to accommodate others, dropped “Muslim” and formed the Awami League in 1955.

Where as, Jatiya Party, a king’s party emerged after General Husain Muhammad Ershad in a bloodless coup in 1981 formed his party to consolidate his power. In 1990, he was overthrown after months of violent street protests by the students.

His party indeed was a “loyal opposition” during the 15 years rule of Hasina. The honeymoon period of the Jatiya Party abruptly ended when the Awami League regime collapsed and Hasina fled to India last August.

The back-scratching has prompted the leaders of the student revolution to say no to the Jatiya Party – a loud and clear message that they should not be in politics in future.

The two military juntas took power and formed king’s parties – one was the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which ruled the country for the fourth consecutive term. The second was the Jatiya Party. General Ershad’s party ruled for nine years until his regime collapsed in 1990.

BNP was formed when military dictator General Zia ur Rahman, a liberation war decorated officer, took power in the vacuum when independence hero Sheikh Mujib ur Rahman was assassinated in August 1975 by a dozen young military officers without a political vision to steer the country through a crisis.

General Rahman took over the helms of affairs of the country, after a soldier’s mutiny in less than three months of the previous military putsch. Despite having a political vision, for unknown reasons, he rehabilitated those politicians who opposed the independence of Bangladesh in crucial positions.

He also rehabilitated scores of Bangla-speaking military officers who fought alongside the Pakistan Army against the Mukti Bahini guerillas and Indian troops during the bloody war in 1971 and dodged the surrender ceremony of Pakistan armed forces. Also, most of the Bangla-speaking military officers were recruited in senior positions in the police services.

In a speech, last week, commemorating the fallen officers of the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) revolt 17 years ago, General Waqar-uz-Zaman has said, ‘We are thinking that we will finish the work quickly and take the army back to the cantonment.””We have to be patient. Work with professionalism. Until an elected government comes, we have to do this with patience,” he furthermore stated.

Many have remarked that the COAS has expressed discomfort against the Yunus government when the situation of law and order reached an alarming level.

The crime situation in Bangladesh is such that there are thefts, robberies and dacoities committed in broad daylight causing widespread panic among the citizenry.The Home Affairs Advisor, Lt. General Jahangir Alam Chowdhury, called a press conference at his house at 3 am and blamed the Awami League for the law and order situation. He said, “Awami League is funnelling ill-gotten money to desperate criminals.”

Political and administrative circles believe that the comments of the army chief regarding the alarming rise of crime amid the demand for the resignation of the home adviser, and his accountability have given the allegation of failure of the government.

Meanwhile, Indian Nobel laureate Prof Amartya Sen, who was born in Bangladesh and studied in a school in Dhaka in an interview with the Indian official news agency Press Trust of India (PTI) a few days ago praised the Bangladeshi Army for its restraint in not attempting to establish military rule, as has happened in many other countries.

Dr Sen said “Yunus is an old friend. I know he is highly capable and, in many ways, a remarkable human being. He has made strong statements about Bangladesh’s secularism and democratic commitment.”

In many third-world countries, the military has always been ambitious to take over power and overthrow a legitimate government, Bangladesh Army seems to behave very rationally.

Bangladesh military officers are refused deployment in United Nations Peacekeeping and also provided visit visas to the United States, Canada, Great Britain, Australia and European countries for track record on human rights abuse. That is one of the reasons that General Zaman has advised his troops deployed for the anti-crime operation so-called “Devil Hunt” to avoid excessive force and shoot to kill suspects.

On the other hand, the mainstream political parties Bangladesh BNP and Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami have been demanding an early election, a month after Yunus took charge of the government in August last year. Dr Yunus, however, urged the political leaders to hold their patience until the crucial reforms of the election commission, judiciary, civil administration, constitution, media, anti-corruption, police administration and others are implemented.

The Chief Adviser of the Interim Government aims for the reforms in a bid to develop a state system based on public ownership, accountability, and welfare. The political parties negotiating with the government have in the back of their mind the fact that the Yunus administration does not have the legitimacy to implement the reforms in the absence of a parliament. They are saying in closed-door party meetings that the political parties would be empowered to implement the reforms. Without the reforms, most observers and political think tanks believe that the political parties will take the country back to square one when they refuse to have the reforms in place.

Reforms will bring about more accountability and transparency of elected public representatives, which the politicians will not agree to in any case. In addition, the independence of the judiciary, and civil and police administration will jeopardize their authority over their constitution.

This is not the first time that the political and administrative reforms have been taken seriously. In 1990, days after the downfall of the military dictator, the student leaders were able to convince the mainstream opposition parties, the Awami League, BNP and Left coalition leaders to sign a pledge that they would bring about reforms of the government institutions.

Unfortunately, both the Awami League and BNP ruled the country several times. They deliberately ignored the reforms, leading to politicization of police, civil services, judiciary, election commission and other governmental institutions to manipulate in favor of the politicians and their henchmen. Therefore, political historian Mohiuddin Ahmed predicts that hundreds of pages of reform documents would be thrown out of the windows of the iconic massive parliament building designed by Louis Kahn, a celebrated visionary architect.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan on 4 March 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

UN Probe Accuses Hasina Regime of Crimes Against Humanity

 

Street Grafitti by students of Monsoon Revolution. Photo Copyright @OHCHR

SALEEM SAMAD

Weeks before former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled to India, who is now living in exile somewhere in Delhi, the country erupted in anti-government street protests that turned violent last year. Now the United Nations Human Rights Office (OHCHR) in a damning report points fingers at the crackdown by security forces and it is said to have committed human rights violations with impunity.

The brutal July-August crackdown by the Hasina regime was tantamount to crimes against humanity as stated by the former ruling party, Awami League, the security and intelligence agencies together systematically engaged in such violations against protesters of Monsoon Revolution, which ousted the 15-year-old autocratic rule of Hasina.

“To cling on to power, the former Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League government with all its political apparatus – including security and intelligence forces – used systematic and brutal violence against student-led mass protests in July-August last year,”. The UN Human Rights Office report is based on credible testimonies from senior officials and other evidence such as serious human rights violations by security forces during the protests, including extrajudicial killings, excessive use of force causing serious injuries to thousands, mass arbitrary arrests and detentions, and torture and other mistreatments.

The testimonies and evidence gathered by the UN fact-finding mission painted a disturbing picture of rampant state violence and targeted killings, which are among the most serious violations of human rights, and which may also constitute international crimes.

Sources have verified the deaths reported, the UN report estimates that 1,400 people, around 12 per cent of those were children, may have been killed between 1 July and 15 August (45 days) last year, and over 13,500 were injured, the vast majority of whom were shot by Bangladesh’s security forces. Bangladesh Police also reported that 44 of its members were killed.

The fact-finding report found evidence to prove that Hasina oversaw the July protest killings!!! The report also states that former senior officials directly involved in handling the protests and other inside sources described how Hasina and other senior officials directed and oversaw a countrywide large-scale crackdown from a command center, in which security and intelligence forces shot and killed protesters or arbitrarily arrested and tortured them.

The fugitive home minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal deployed the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) as a strike force and even specifically demanded the deployment of more helicopters to scare protesters in the way that the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) had used them, the report elaborated.

“The testimonies and evidence we gathered paint a disturbing picture of rampant state violence and targeted killings, which are amongst the most serious violations of human rights, and which may also constitute international crimes. Accountability and justice are essential for national healing and for the future of Bangladesh,” said UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk at a press conference in Geneva on 12th February.

“The brutal response was a calculated and well-coordinated strategy by the former government to hold onto power in the face of mass opposition,” said Türk. At the request of Chief Adviser Prof Mohammed Yunus, the UN Human Rights Office dispatched a team to Bangladesh in September, including human rights investigators, a forensics physician, and a weapons expert, to conduct an independent and impartial fact-finding into the deadly events.

These violations raise concerns under international criminal law, warranting further investigations to determine whether they amount to crimes against humanity, torture as a stand-alone crime, or serious violations under domestic law, according to the report. It found patterns of security forces deliberately and impermissibly killing or maiming protesters, including incidents where people were shot at a close range.

Violations during the protests included evidence of violence incitement by armed Awami League supporters, excessive use of force by Police, RAB, and BGB — resulting in extrajudicial killings — along the Army’s involvement in the use of excessive force.

The report also documents cases in which security forces denied or obstructed critical medical care for injured protesters, interrogated patients and collected their fingerprints in hospitals, intimidated medical personnel, and seized hospital CCTV footage without due process, in an apparent effort to identify protesters and to conceal evidence of the extent of violence carried out by state forces.

The RAB should be disbanded, and the roles of the BGB and the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), a military spy agency, must be confined to their original mandates. It has been advised that independent commissions must be created to investigate police violations and establish similar accountability and justice mechanisms for the Bangladesh Armed Forces and BGB.

The UN report recommends reforming the security and justice sectors, abolishing a host of repressive laws and institutions designed to stifle civic and political dissent and implement broader changes to the political system and economic governance.

The most crucial observation of the UN probe report strongly recommended that the Bangladesh authorities should refrain from nominating military or police personnel for peacekeeping missions who have served with the RAB, DGFI, or Dhaka Metropolitan Police Detective Branch, or in BGB battalions deployed to the 2024 protests or other force-suppressed protests until a human rights screening mechanism is established.

The report did not hesitate to document the aftermath of the protests, and the report also found police officers being revengefully targeted, Awami League members, and the police were perceived to be aligned with the Awami League, as well as some journalists presumed to be affiliated with Hasina’s regime.

Former Ambassador Humayun Kabir, chairman of Bangladesh Enterprise Institute, an influential think-tank when approached to comment on what is going to happen next, said now it is clear that Hasina is likely not to be tried in Bangladesh.

The UN fact-finding report is an authenticated investigative document which would be produced at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, The Netherlands.

The ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan after at a parley with Nobel laureate Prof Yunus has agreed to investigate and start a due process for the trial of Hasina for crimes against humanity. Once the ICC agrees to put Hasina on the docks to face crimes she has committed, The Hague court will seek her extradition from India, where she has been living in exile since 5 August.

It will surely be a severe diplomatic embarrassment for the bigwigs at New Delhi’s South Block where they do not have enough legal reasons to scuttle her extradition to The Hague.

On the other hand, despite a formal request by Bangladesh’s Foreign Ministry through diplomatic channels, Delhi has remained silent, except for the spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs who has acknowledged receiving the ‘note verbale’ from Dhaka of her extradition.

Well, regarding the deportation of Hasina to Bangladesh, India has several arguments for not sending her to stand trial at the International Crimes Tribunal in Dhaka. But giving excuses to the ICC will be difficult for India.

First published in the Stratheia, a Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan on 16 February 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Growing Pressure on Dr. Yunus for Early Elections

SALEEM SAMAD

When Sheikh Hasina came to power, the new generation (Gen Z) had not seen free, fair, and inclusive elections since 2008. Election observers described the parliament elections under her 15-year autocratic regime as fraud, and the poll results were cropped.

The international media had widely reported how elections in Bangladesh in 2014, 2018, and 2024 were held under the cover of darkness, keeping thousands of opposition leaders and members in prison.

The rights organizations repeatedly made loud noise, but Hasina ignored their calls to hold free and fair elections. Instead, she was beating African drums that the country belongs to her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who was ordained as the architect of Bangladesh’s independence signalling she has the right the govern with an iron hand.

Amid cheering crowds, she often boasted that her father had made the country independent and was known as Bangabandhu (Friend of Bangladesh). Otherwise, she explained, the nation would have been subjugated by Pakistan’s military establishment, making them second-class citizens.

Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus took charge of an Interim Government backed by defiant student leaders and the military after they forced the Iron Lady (Hasina) to abdicate her power and flee to India, where she is living in exile.

The political parties except the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami have demanded an election at the soonest, indicating before the end of this year. Yunus charted a path to reforms to establish pluralism, democracy, and human rights, he announced in an address to the nation that several commissions suggested reforms to key state organs.

He conveyed to the political leaders that the elections would be held only after the reforms on Electoral System, Constitution, Public Administration, Judiciary, Financial Institutions, Media, Police Administration, and Anti-Corruption were made effective. The political parties and civil society welcomed his initiative.

When military dictator General Muhammad Ershad was ousted by students backed by the military in 1990, the mainstream opposition parties signed an election pledge prepared by the student leaders. The opposition leaders promised to implement the reforms in key state organs.

Sheikh Hasina, Khaleda Zia, and the Left Alliance jointly signed a tripartite political commitment that they will implement the reforms after winning the elections. Unfortunately, both the Begums went to power again and again but they deliberately avoided implementing the pro-people pledge.

After decades of bad governance, poor accountability and transparency, Yunus is determined to see a new Bangladesh, which adheres to the principles of international covenants to put the country at a respectable height on the world stage.

The reforms are supposed to guarantee democracy, pluralism, accountability, transparency, independence of the judiciary, independent election commission, freedom of expression, press freedom, and human rights. He has reiterated that the elections will be held once the reforms have taken off the ground zero.

Most political scientists and think tanks believe that the political parties would agree not to disagree. Later the politicians, when elected, the painstakingly homework for reforms would be binned. For more than five decades the political parties that ruled the nation were intolerant and arrogant. At times reacted very violently.

The politicians publicly flouted the rule of law, punished the journalists for exposing their corruption, and ignored the accountability of elected representatives of public offices. They often coerced police and judiciary to ensure that their blue-eyed boys were kept out of prison for extortion from traders and protection money from industrialists, while their rivals were severely punished and blocked from politics.

The visible challenges in front of Yunus are acting as a stumbling block in the accountability of bureaucracy, judiciary and law and order situation. The police are unable to restore lawlessness and control price hikes in kitchen markets.

There is no guarantee clause to be signed by politicians, that the reforms should be taken into cognizance in “good faith” by the ‘untamed’ political parties. Yunus told in an interview with an editor of a Bangladesh newspaper that the leaders of the political parties when they held parleys with him were polite and humble.

However, when they spoke to the journalists, they gave a different statement which they did not put on the table of discussion with the Chief Adviser of the Interim Government. It is strange but it is a fact, he told the editor.

The recent spree of vandalism and demolition of the Bangabandhu Museum, the former residence of the first President of Bangladesh, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman on 5 February. Students went berserk in several cities and towns in the looting and arson of Awami League senior leaders, who were deemed icons of accomplices to autocratic Hasina’s misrule.

The Chief Adviser in a tone of warning that certain groups are pushing the nation into anarchy and lawlessness. The inventor of micro-credit Prof Yunus calls on all citizens “to immediately restore complete law and order and to ensure there will be no further attacks on properties” associated with the family of the ousted Sheikh Hasina and politicians of the fascist Awami League party or against any citizen on any pretext.

He, however, said the outrage has sparked from her (Hasina) refuge in New Delhi, and from there she continues to mobilize her militants to hamper Bangladesh’s recovery from years of abuse under her 15-year rule.

If any attempt is made to destabilize the country through any kind of provocative activities, law enforcement agencies will immediately take strict action against anyone acting to create chaos and anarchy, which includes the destruction of property. The government will bring the responsible individuals and groups to justice, he stated.

While the vandalism and looting, the law enforcement agencies were playing as silent spectators when the mobs were rioting. Several civil society, rights, and citizens groups strongly condemned the vandalism, arson, and looting of family members of Hasina and Awami League leaders.

Celebrated feminist Bangladeshi writer Taslima Nasreen, who lives in exile in India, has called the demolition of Sheikh Mujib’s residence an act of “Islamic terrorists”.

The Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Dr Shafiqur Rahman said “If the ongoing madness does not stop, Bangladesh will be heading towards civil war.” While, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) said in a statement that they will hold talks with Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus as soon as possible to express their concern over the country’s “deteriorating” law and order situation, especially the demolition of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s residence in Dhaka.

They fear that these attacks and vandalism in the last two days could pose a serious threat to national stability and disrupt the upcoming national election, a BNP statement said. It is understood that on the issue of appalling law and order status, the political parties will press Yunus to hold elections in the coming winter.

Most political analysts argue that Yunus may not agree to their demand for an early election, unless the reforms get tacit approval from all political parties, except for the former ruling party Awami League. Most of the like-minded political parties, except the Islamist parties, are lisping the same jargon as the BNP’s political agenda of early election.

Will an election roadmap neutralize the political crisis? Writer and researcher on political history Mohiuddin Ahmad does not believe that the situation will improve; rather, it may worsen.

Most political parties have extended their support to the Interim Government led by Prof Yunus. However, they argue that in the last six months, the government has failed in various areas, including controlling the price of daily essentials and improving the law and order situation.

As a result, there are doubts about their ability to control any situation in the country. The last two days of vandalism have added to the crisis of confidence. Ahmad remarked that if the government announces an election roadmap, there will be a further crisis when local party leaders clash with rivals in electioneering.

The government and mainstream political parties should focus on the country’s image and stability. Because if there is no stability, everything including democracy and elections will suffer, said political scientist Professor Mahbub Ullah to BBC Bangla Service.

First published in the Stratheia, Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 9 February 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

India Irks Bangladesh for Extension of Visa to Sheikh Hasina

SALEEM SAMAD

India seems to have deliberately extended the visa of Sheikh Hasina, to a former democratically elected autocratic prime minister to stay comfy at a two-room safe house in a military base at Delhi.

A reputed Delhi-based Hindustan Times writes that extending the visa for another six months is unprecedented. This has annoyed the five-month-old Interim Government of Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus.

The news was another dent amid growing tension between the two countries after the fall of Hasina in early August last year. She fled to India after a bloody student uprising. India seems uncomfortable providing asylum and its relationship with neighboring countries has turned from sweet to sour.

Officials close to the Chief Advisor’s (Yunus) office said they did not expect but were not surprised that Delhi offered Hasina to live in exile, amid a call for her extradition.

Dhaka has officially asked Delhi through diplomatic channels to extradite Hasina to face the music of justice for committing crimes against humanity. She has been accused of ordering law enforcement to shoot and kill unarmed students and protesters during the bloody Monsoon Revolution last year July-August.

The gesture confirms that India is unwilling to extradite Hasina. Indian media is harping that she is unlikely to get a fair trial if she stands on the dock for crimes of putting to deaths of hundreds of protesters.

An official, who requested to remain anonymous, as the person is not authorized to speak to journalists, said the latest decision to extend the visa gives a strong message.

The message was loud and clear that India does not wish to normalize the bilateral relations with its neighbor, which has a shared history of and common heritage originating from the Bengal (West Bengal became an Indian state and East Bengal became Bangladesh) region, linguistic and cultural ties, passion for music, literature and the arts.

The half a century of trade, commerce, regional infrastructure development, transit, and people-to-people contacts will fall flat. The gesture confirms that India is unwilling to extradite Hasina.

Unfortunately, India could not reconcile the fact that Hasina is no longer at the helm of Bangladesh's affairs. Political observers here argue that South Block in New Delhi foolishly kept all its eggs in Hasina's basket. Such actions contradict ancient India’s visionary strategist Chanakya’s wisdom on war and peace with the neighboring states.

Political stalwarts among the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) do not believe that Hasina is a ‘spent fuel’ and cannot be replenished or recharged to lead the new population of 51 million Gen-Z in a country of 174 million.

Thousands of Gen-Z, students from college and university students in the capital and countryside sparked the revolt which forced the Awami League despots from power to crumble.

The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), despite several attempts to unseat Hasina through violent anti-government movements in the last 15 years, miserably failed. They could not dent the invincible Hasina regime.

Delhi failed to acknowledge the Monsoon Revolution which killed more than a thousand students and protesters in police firing and armed vigilantes recruited from Awami League’s student and youth organizations which clashed with students on the educational campuses.

Political historian Mohiuddin Ahmad said he has a feeling if Hasina is brought back from India, the country will plunge into chaos and the distraught Interim Government will be overwhelmed.

Thousands of students and protesters would march the streets of the capital and elsewhere demanding Hasina to be punished immediately. Many journalists covering politics echoed with Ahmad that the presence of Hasina in the safest custody would turn into political pressure for the Yunus administration.

India despite being the largest functional democratic nation, accepted Hasina’s flawed elections in 2014, 2018 and 2024 sans the participation of the mainstream opposition.

Delhi was conspicuously silent when appalling human rights violations were being committed, including extra-judicial deaths, enforced disappearances and confinement of political opposition, critics and dissidents in secret prisons by security agencies.

With credible investigations, the Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have exposed the dark era of Hasina’s regime. It was picked up by international media, including several independent Indian media. The political language of India did not change.

The media was another soft sector and was throttled by draconian cybercrime laws. Many journalists were arrested and tortured which was reported by Reporters Without Borders (RSF), Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), and the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ).

Hasina’s government refused to probe into the allegations of enforced disappearance, secret prisons and extra-judicial deaths after several requests by the United Nations, European Union and other Western countries.

The former government instead blamed the BNP and Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami for orchestrating the propaganda to tarnish the image of her regime. All through her tyrannical rule, India never raised questions nor was Hasina given any advice to act as a benevolent dictator.

Earlier, Prof Yunus urged India to ensure that Hasina remains quiet and not give sermons through social media which is being amplified by her loyalists living in the West. First ever India-Bangladesh Foreign Secretary-level meeting was held at Dhaka, which is believed to have melted some ice.

Prof Yunus and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will likely meet in November on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) summit in Thailand.

BIMSTEC is India's brainchild to avoid SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) and bypass Pakistan for regional cooperation.

Until Yunus meets Modi at the end of the year nothing tangible could be achieved from the biggest neighbor India on bilateral relations and regional cooperation.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 09 January 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

India’s ‘Neighborhood First’ Testament Fails Bangladesh

SALEEM SAMAD

Ancient India’s visionary strategist Chanakya gave six-fold policy deals on war and peace with the neighboring states, how a king should assess his power, and what actions he needed to take to deal with the states.

Nearly 2316 years ago, the Indian philosopher, economist, jurist, and royal advisor professed diplomatic principles that still have relevance in modern diplomacy.

Chanakya who lived around 300 BCE was a key figure in the establishment of the glorious Mauryan Empire and is known for writing Arthashastra, an ancient Indian treatise on politics and economics.

Unfortunately, the South Block in New Delhi is manned by chosen blue-eyed civil officers who inherited the legacy of the British Raj instead of the marvel of Chanakya’s diplomacy.

South Block in New Delhi houses the Prime Minister’s Office, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), and the Ministry of Defense.

India had invested heavily in her continued hegemony among the neighbors, which has adopted a much trumped-up policy of ‘Neighborhood First’.

Earlier Delhi pursued the ‘Look East Policy’ to yield positive results in the region and Bangladesh and several South Asian countries were partners in progress and economic development.

Not to be misunderstood for the ‘Neighborhood First’ policy, but the Hindutava (an ideology or movement seeking to establish Hinduism and Hindu culture as dominant in India) pursued by the governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has irked most South Asian nations.

Presently India’s relationships with neighbors are blowing hot and cold. Some countries have developed love and hate with India after arch-enemy China made a dent in the region with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) mega projects, especially in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Bangladesh. Now those countries are on the fresh list of disapproval by the helms of affairs in Delhi’s South Block.

Bangladesh on the diplomatic front is the opening batsman in a bid to bring to life the weakened SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation). Bangladesh is expecting the SAARC foreign secretary-level meeting will be held soon, which has been halted for the last 10 years.The SAARC summit has also stalled for 10 years, because of the India-Pakistan conflicts.

“SAARC appears dead but it should not be buried,” Touhid Hossain, a Bangladesh Adviser for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs remarked. The regional cooperation was extremely important for improving trade and economy and reducing poverty in the South Asian region, the adviser said.

Yunus told the New Age, “India is not responding seriously. Indians explain that they have problems with Pakistan.” The bone of contention between Bangladesh and India is centered around Hasina, who is living in exile near Delhi.

Bangladesh has formally asked India to extradite deposed Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the MEA spokesperson refused to make any statement on Dhaka’s request when Indian journalists asked for a comment.

Now it seems that Delhi will remain silent on the issue of extradition. Both countries signed a treaty in 2013 and amended it in 2016. The treaty was signed to deport northeast India’s separatist leaders harbored in Bangladesh.

Similarly, two fugitive military officers indicted for the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the independence hero were hiding in India. Yunus told editor Kabir that if India does not officially respond to the extradition of Hasina, Dhaka will make a follow-up request after a month with Delhi.

Dhaka has repeatedly requested Delhi to ensure that Hasina remains quiet and refrain from making fiery political speeches over the phone to her loyalists, which often emerges in social media.

Most of the central leaders of Hasina’s Awami League have fled to India through clandestine routes. Many have taken refuge in Australia, Canada, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States and other destinations.

Those who couldn’t escape have been arrested. They were accused of the deaths of students and protesters. The political prisoners are languishing in prison without bail for the last four months.

Last week, Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain and Chief of Army Staff General Waker-Uz-Zaman in separate media engagements have extended an olive branch to restore the bilateral relations with India.

General Waker, who is described by senior officers as a professional soldier in an interview with editor Matiur Rahman of Prothom Alo, the largest Bangla newspaper said that India is an important neighbor.

“We are dependent on India in many ways. And India is getting facilities from us too. A large number of their people are working in Bangladesh, formally and informally…So India has a lot of interest in Bangladesh’s stability,” he observed.

“This is a give-and-take relationship….We have to maintain good relations based on equality. The people in no way should feel India is dominating over us, which goes against our interests,” the COAS.

Waker is incidentally the husband of Sheikh Hasina’s cousin and last June was made COAS. He was a hard nut in negotiating with Hasina to quit and flee to India on 5 August last year.

On the other hand, the Foreign Advisor on the eve of New Year suggested that Bangladesh maintain “balanced relations” with India, China, and the United States, as all three nations hold “strategic importance” for the country.

Relations between Bangladesh and India have to be built on the basis of sovereignty, mutual interest, and dignity as the dimension and equation of Bangladesh’s relation with India have changed after 5 August, noted Hossain.

On the other hand, Indian news media NDTV, CNN-IBN News18, Times Now, Republic TV and several other media outlets have been amplifying fake stories that General Waker has ceased power from Hasina. The Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus is a façade (stooge) and the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami is dominating the Interim Government.

Prof Yunus in an interview with the New Age editor Nurul Kabir expressed his frustration over Indian media spreading concocted stories on Bangladesh and even described the Interim Government as an Islamist regime.

The Indian media along with the central leaders, as well as the state Chief Ministers of BJP have demonized Bangladesh for revenge attacks upon the 13 million Hindus and held Yunus responsible for the atrocities in the country.

“When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called me and alleged that the religious minority community was being persecuted here in Bangladesh, I told him that the narrative was an exaggerated one,” Yunus said in an interview with the anti-establishment newspaper.

Hossain said that the role played by Indian media was not at all conducive to establishing normal relations between the two countries.

Indian media, academicians, and political stalwarts are forgetting that the territory that is now Bangladesh was thrice partitioned. The British Raj partitioned in 1905 and 1947 to create Pakistan based on a Muslim-majority region in India. The third partition was in 1971, when it finally bifurcated from Pakistan after rejecting the Two-Nation theory, said political historian Mohiuddin Ahmad.

India must accept the political reality that Hasina has gone for now and must condemn the wanton deaths of more than a thousand students and protesters during the July-August so-called Monsoon Revolution, said Ahmad.

Historian Mohiuddin Ahmad concluded that unless Delhi recognizes the bloody student revolution that ousted the autocratic regime of Sheikh Hasina and gives hope on extradition, bilateral relations will continue to limp, which will severely affect regional cooperation (SAARC).

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan on 5 January 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

India’s Pessimism Threatens Historic Ties with Bangladesh

SALEEM SAMAD

India’s current political maneuvers, particularly those involving religious factors, are akin to pouring cold water on a relationship that has endured for over half a century. Such actions risk tarnishing the two nations’ deep-rooted historical, cultural, and mutual respect.

It’s crucial to recognize that India and Bangladesh have shared a resilient relationship that has weathered many hiccups over the last fifty years. However, recent political maneuvers in India, particularly those influenced by religious factors, create tensions that could undermine this precious bond.

In India, a wave of negativity has emerged, fueled not only by certain media outlets but also by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which champions the Hindutva ideology.

The rhetoric challenges the legitimacy of the Interim Government headed by Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus, who has promised to hold free and fair parliamentary elections in early 2026.

As Prof Yunus stated, “The Bangladesh-India relationship is deep and multifaceted. We can have our differences but that cannot define it.” Delhi is reluctant to engage positively with the new government after Sheikh Hasina’s autocratic regime has fallen and fled to India.

The narrative being propagated suggests that Yunus has strayed from Bangladesh’s secular premises, leaving the door ajar to radicalized Muslims that have unfortunately perpetrated violence against the Hindu community, vandalizing Hindu business establishments and desecrating temples.

The Godi Media, a term used to describe sensationalist and biased Indian print and TV news media, has been instrumental in perpetuating this misinformation.

They have broadcasted/posted several fake videos showing attacks on Hindus and the killing of scores of Hindus, further exacerbating the tensions. The Godi Media described the religious tensions as “genocide” and “ethnic cleansing”, which is far from the accepted definition by academics.

Despite the diligent efforts of fact-checkers in both Bangladesh and India, including the BBC, has debunked these fabrications, the negative portrayal of Bangladesh continues. But that did not stop or even slow down the tirade of stories demonizing Bangladesh.

An investigation by fact-checker Rumor Scanner identified 13 misleading reports published by Indian media between August and December following the collapse of the Awami League government.

According to Rumor Scanner, 49 media outlets, including well-known names such as the Republic Bangla, Hindustan Times, Zee News, Live Mint, Republic TV, India Today, ABP Anand, and Aaj Tak, were implicated in spreading this inaccurate information.

Alarmingly, the analysis further revealed that a staggering 72% of social media accounts based in India are engaged in spreading misleading narratives about Bangladesh.

Editor Mahfuz Anam of the influential English newspaper The Daily Star writes that a powerful section of the Indian media has shifted into the “reprimand” mode, with some even suggesting “punishment.” Much of the social media discourse seems to support this.

The Indian media’s coverage appears to be driven by concern solely for Hindus of Bangladesh, rather than the people of Bangladesh, remarks Anam.

New Delhi’s South Block has weaponized the Hindu atrocities in Bangladesh to hide their diplomatic debacle for putting all eggs in one basket in the hand of their blue-eyed Sheikh Hasina.

It is undeniable that the religious and ethnic communities in Bangladesh were victims of persecution, atrocities, vandalism of business establishments and desecration of religious prayer halls, including Hindu temples, Christian churches, Buddhist pagodas and also Ahmadiyya Muslim mosques.

The sectarian persecution and violence in Bangladesh, it is essential to contextualize these events within the historical legacy of injustice that has plagued the region.

Since Bangladesh’s independence, perpetrators of religiously motivated violence have evaded accountability. There is no denying that such attacks on religious communities are a legacy of perpetrators enjoying impunity.

None of the perpetrators faced the music of justice since 1972 when independence hero Sheikh Mujibur Rahman returned from imprisonment in Pakistan.

This silence in holding aggressors accountable for sectarian violence has perpetuated a cycle of impunity that continues to impact communities today.

Durga Puja is a sacred religious festival of the Hindus of Bengal (historically, Bangladesh was known as East Bengal). It dampened the spirit of the newly independent Bangladesh of millions of Hindus, secularists, advocates of pluralism, and liberal Muslims alike.

Even under the despotic leadership of Sheikh Hasina, calls for accountability have often gone unheard. Many Hindus in Bangladesh, who have historically supported the Awami League, feel disillusioned by the lack of action taken against those responsible for religious violence.

The perception persists that the ruling party, rather than protecting extremism, has allowed perpetrators to go unpunished. Instead, she blamed Islamist parties and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) for the sectarian violence.

Rana Dasgupta, a former General Secretary of the Bangladesh Hindu Christian Buddhist Unity Council, noted the unfortunate reality that some grassroots leaders of the Awami League were found in the company of rioters during incidents of violence.

At a press conference in Chattagram (formerly Chittagong), his organization lamented the political leadership’s failure to safeguard Hindu temples and communities during crucial festivals.

Despite these challenges, it’s vital to recognize the diversity that exists within Bangladesh, where nearly 9% of the population identifies as Hindu, alongside smaller communities of Buddhists, Christians, and others within a predominantly Sunni Muslim landscape.

Each year, civil society groups, human rights advocates, and concerned citizens reflect on how they can uphold secularism and pluralism principles essential for a collective future. According to Ain O Salish Kendra, a Bangladeshi human rights organization, at least 3,600 similar attacks have occurred in Bangladesh between 2013 and 2021.

Such violence had prompted Prof Robaet Ferdous of Dhaka University, an outspoken defender of religious freedom, to say, “It’s not a failure of the local administration, police or the ruling party to protect the Hindus, but I see the collapse of the society during a national crisis, which contradicts the legacy of the glorious liberation war in 1971 which promised to establish secularism, pluralism, and freedom of expression in Bangladesh.”

According to Rana Dasgupta, “… a culture of impunity has been created in Bangladesh for attacks on Hindus. Those involved in these attacks have never been prosecuted, and as a result, it continues….”

India’s conspicuous silence over the atrocities, persecution, and vandalism against Hindus and other religious communities during the 15 years of Hasina’s era has been ignored.

The South Block, which looks after the Indian foreign policy in New Delhi, probably did not want to embarrass Sheikh Hasina when the sectarian violence was prominently published in mainstream media and human rights groups identified her Awami League, which she inherited from her father, Sheikh Mujib was the prime accused.

India, despite having a functional democracy and pluralism, never advised Hasina to hold an inclusive, free, fair, and credible election. Delhi’s indulgence has encouraged Hasina to grow into a Frankenstein and dare to rig the 2014, 2018, and 2024 elections, angered the West and the core reason for voters’ outrage with her regime.

Reelected for the third consecutive term through holding sham elections, she instead received feathers on her hat and congratulatory messages from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The Hefazat-e-Islam, launched in 2010 to “protect Islam”, was spurred particularly by a proposed policy to confer equal inheritance rights to women and women’s empowerment, which is lauded in international media and the United Nations.

During her tenure (2009-2024), she placed the radicalized Islamic organization Hefazat-e-Islam on her lap to defuse their anger against women’s empowerment and women’s rights.

Despite protests from secularists and civil society, her government consciously amended the school textbooks with an Islamic coating. Based on the musical tunes of the Madrassa (Qawmi Islamic schools), the network introduced Islamic culture and tradition into the secular fabric of the society.

She kept the Hefazat in good humor in a bid to shield her authoritarian regime from the dreaded Islamists and jihadists outfits – Jamaat-e-Islami, outlawed Harkatul Jihad al Islam (HuJI), Hizb ut-Tahrir and other fringe outfits.

Bangladesh’s acclaimed political historian Mohiuddin Ahmad said the appeasement of Hasina was never to hurt her counterpart Modi by mentioning that the rights of the Dalits (low caste Hindus), Christians, Muslims and ethnic communities also impact Bangladesh.

Not surprisingly, the South Block’s so-called Look East Policy has placed Bangladesh as a delinquent state like that of Pakistan, said Ahmad. India arbitrarily stopped issuing visas to Bangladesh nationals after Hasina’s fall in early August, citing security reasons.

Bangladesh’s number of tourists and visitors to India was 2.12 million in 2023. The figure has dwindled to less than half and will decline when many Bangladesh multiple visas expire in December.

The non-issuance of visas has caused tension among Bangladesh nationals who regularly visit India for medical purposes. Some go on pilgrimage to Ajmer and other holy sites. A significant percentage of people visit India for business and pleasure.

The visa restrictions have stopped direct buses from Dhaka to Kolkata and Dhaka to Agartala. Direct train services from Dhaka to Kolkata, Dhaka to Siliguri, and Khulna-Kolkata have also reached a screeching halt. Similarly, both Bangladesh and Indian airlines have reduced flights by one-third in the absence of passengers who failed to avail of Indian visas.

Ahmad said people-to-people contact has been severely hampered due to visa restrictions imposed by India to punish the people of Bangladesh. Meanwhile, the Boycott India campaign on social media, which was joined by fringe political parties, melted after Bangladesh planned to import 50,000 tons of rice from India. The Interim Government recently imported eggs, green chilies, onions, and potatoes to stabilize the kitchen market.

On the other hand, India-Bangladesh bilateral trade is lopsided. Bangladesh’s exports are nearly $2 billion, while imports from India as of 2023 stood at $12 billion. This is also a contention with Indian policymakers and Bangladesh’s industrial, manufacturing, and exporters bodies.

As long as India hosts the fugitive Shiekh Hasina, who lives in exile at an official safe house near Delhi, it will be difficult for India-Bangladesh relations to reach a new height.

Unless she is extradited to Bangladesh to face trial for crimes against humanity, the relations will turn from sour to bitter. Fortunately, Bangladesh and India signed an extradition treaty in 2013.

The prestigious Indian Express newspaper argues that “India also has the option of refusing Hasina’s extradition because the accusations against her are not “in good faith in the interests of justice.” However, Delhi’s newspaper realizes the refusal to extradite Hasina may further strain ties between New Delhi and Dhaka.

Well, India has no option left but to take the risk to save Hasina from walking to the gallows for crimes for ordering the law enforcement agencies to shoot and kill hundreds of students and protesters during the July-August Monsoon Revolution, says former Ambassador Humayun Kabir, who served as a diplomat in India and the United States.

He also said Bangladesh should develop a contingency plan if India decides not to deport her. The government will also have to calculate the risk factor of whether Bangladesh can live without the most prominent neighbor’s fraternity, which had helped achieve the bloody birth of Bangladesh in 1971.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, 30 December 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad