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Showing posts with label trade imbalance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade imbalance. Show all posts

Monday, December 30, 2024

India’s Pessimism Threatens Historic Ties with Bangladesh

SALEEM SAMAD

India’s current political maneuvers, particularly those involving religious factors, are akin to pouring cold water on a relationship that has endured for over half a century. Such actions risk tarnishing the two nations’ deep-rooted historical, cultural, and mutual respect.

It’s crucial to recognize that India and Bangladesh have shared a resilient relationship that has weathered many hiccups over the last fifty years. However, recent political maneuvers in India, particularly those influenced by religious factors, create tensions that could undermine this precious bond.

In India, a wave of negativity has emerged, fueled not only by certain media outlets but also by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which champions the Hindutva ideology.

The rhetoric challenges the legitimacy of the Interim Government headed by Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus, who has promised to hold free and fair parliamentary elections in early 2026.

As Prof Yunus stated, “The Bangladesh-India relationship is deep and multifaceted. We can have our differences but that cannot define it.” Delhi is reluctant to engage positively with the new government after Sheikh Hasina’s autocratic regime has fallen and fled to India.

The narrative being propagated suggests that Yunus has strayed from Bangladesh’s secular premises, leaving the door ajar to radicalized Muslims that have unfortunately perpetrated violence against the Hindu community, vandalizing Hindu business establishments and desecrating temples.

The Godi Media, a term used to describe sensationalist and biased Indian print and TV news media, has been instrumental in perpetuating this misinformation.

They have broadcasted/posted several fake videos showing attacks on Hindus and the killing of scores of Hindus, further exacerbating the tensions. The Godi Media described the religious tensions as “genocide” and “ethnic cleansing”, which is far from the accepted definition by academics.

Despite the diligent efforts of fact-checkers in both Bangladesh and India, including the BBC, has debunked these fabrications, the negative portrayal of Bangladesh continues. But that did not stop or even slow down the tirade of stories demonizing Bangladesh.

An investigation by fact-checker Rumor Scanner identified 13 misleading reports published by Indian media between August and December following the collapse of the Awami League government.

According to Rumor Scanner, 49 media outlets, including well-known names such as the Republic Bangla, Hindustan Times, Zee News, Live Mint, Republic TV, India Today, ABP Anand, and Aaj Tak, were implicated in spreading this inaccurate information.

Alarmingly, the analysis further revealed that a staggering 72% of social media accounts based in India are engaged in spreading misleading narratives about Bangladesh.

Editor Mahfuz Anam of the influential English newspaper The Daily Star writes that a powerful section of the Indian media has shifted into the “reprimand” mode, with some even suggesting “punishment.” Much of the social media discourse seems to support this.

The Indian media’s coverage appears to be driven by concern solely for Hindus of Bangladesh, rather than the people of Bangladesh, remarks Anam.

New Delhi’s South Block has weaponized the Hindu atrocities in Bangladesh to hide their diplomatic debacle for putting all eggs in one basket in the hand of their blue-eyed Sheikh Hasina.

It is undeniable that the religious and ethnic communities in Bangladesh were victims of persecution, atrocities, vandalism of business establishments and desecration of religious prayer halls, including Hindu temples, Christian churches, Buddhist pagodas and also Ahmadiyya Muslim mosques.

The sectarian persecution and violence in Bangladesh, it is essential to contextualize these events within the historical legacy of injustice that has plagued the region.

Since Bangladesh’s independence, perpetrators of religiously motivated violence have evaded accountability. There is no denying that such attacks on religious communities are a legacy of perpetrators enjoying impunity.

None of the perpetrators faced the music of justice since 1972 when independence hero Sheikh Mujibur Rahman returned from imprisonment in Pakistan.

This silence in holding aggressors accountable for sectarian violence has perpetuated a cycle of impunity that continues to impact communities today.

Durga Puja is a sacred religious festival of the Hindus of Bengal (historically, Bangladesh was known as East Bengal). It dampened the spirit of the newly independent Bangladesh of millions of Hindus, secularists, advocates of pluralism, and liberal Muslims alike.

Even under the despotic leadership of Sheikh Hasina, calls for accountability have often gone unheard. Many Hindus in Bangladesh, who have historically supported the Awami League, feel disillusioned by the lack of action taken against those responsible for religious violence.

The perception persists that the ruling party, rather than protecting extremism, has allowed perpetrators to go unpunished. Instead, she blamed Islamist parties and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) for the sectarian violence.

Rana Dasgupta, a former General Secretary of the Bangladesh Hindu Christian Buddhist Unity Council, noted the unfortunate reality that some grassroots leaders of the Awami League were found in the company of rioters during incidents of violence.

At a press conference in Chattagram (formerly Chittagong), his organization lamented the political leadership’s failure to safeguard Hindu temples and communities during crucial festivals.

Despite these challenges, it’s vital to recognize the diversity that exists within Bangladesh, where nearly 9% of the population identifies as Hindu, alongside smaller communities of Buddhists, Christians, and others within a predominantly Sunni Muslim landscape.

Each year, civil society groups, human rights advocates, and concerned citizens reflect on how they can uphold secularism and pluralism principles essential for a collective future. According to Ain O Salish Kendra, a Bangladeshi human rights organization, at least 3,600 similar attacks have occurred in Bangladesh between 2013 and 2021.

Such violence had prompted Prof Robaet Ferdous of Dhaka University, an outspoken defender of religious freedom, to say, “It’s not a failure of the local administration, police or the ruling party to protect the Hindus, but I see the collapse of the society during a national crisis, which contradicts the legacy of the glorious liberation war in 1971 which promised to establish secularism, pluralism, and freedom of expression in Bangladesh.”

According to Rana Dasgupta, “… a culture of impunity has been created in Bangladesh for attacks on Hindus. Those involved in these attacks have never been prosecuted, and as a result, it continues….”

India’s conspicuous silence over the atrocities, persecution, and vandalism against Hindus and other religious communities during the 15 years of Hasina’s era has been ignored.

The South Block, which looks after the Indian foreign policy in New Delhi, probably did not want to embarrass Sheikh Hasina when the sectarian violence was prominently published in mainstream media and human rights groups identified her Awami League, which she inherited from her father, Sheikh Mujib was the prime accused.

India, despite having a functional democracy and pluralism, never advised Hasina to hold an inclusive, free, fair, and credible election. Delhi’s indulgence has encouraged Hasina to grow into a Frankenstein and dare to rig the 2014, 2018, and 2024 elections, angered the West and the core reason for voters’ outrage with her regime.

Reelected for the third consecutive term through holding sham elections, she instead received feathers on her hat and congratulatory messages from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The Hefazat-e-Islam, launched in 2010 to “protect Islam”, was spurred particularly by a proposed policy to confer equal inheritance rights to women and women’s empowerment, which is lauded in international media and the United Nations.

During her tenure (2009-2024), she placed the radicalized Islamic organization Hefazat-e-Islam on her lap to defuse their anger against women’s empowerment and women’s rights.

Despite protests from secularists and civil society, her government consciously amended the school textbooks with an Islamic coating. Based on the musical tunes of the Madrassa (Qawmi Islamic schools), the network introduced Islamic culture and tradition into the secular fabric of the society.

She kept the Hefazat in good humor in a bid to shield her authoritarian regime from the dreaded Islamists and jihadists outfits – Jamaat-e-Islami, outlawed Harkatul Jihad al Islam (HuJI), Hizb ut-Tahrir and other fringe outfits.

Bangladesh’s acclaimed political historian Mohiuddin Ahmad said the appeasement of Hasina was never to hurt her counterpart Modi by mentioning that the rights of the Dalits (low caste Hindus), Christians, Muslims and ethnic communities also impact Bangladesh.

Not surprisingly, the South Block’s so-called Look East Policy has placed Bangladesh as a delinquent state like that of Pakistan, said Ahmad. India arbitrarily stopped issuing visas to Bangladesh nationals after Hasina’s fall in early August, citing security reasons.

Bangladesh’s number of tourists and visitors to India was 2.12 million in 2023. The figure has dwindled to less than half and will decline when many Bangladesh multiple visas expire in December.

The non-issuance of visas has caused tension among Bangladesh nationals who regularly visit India for medical purposes. Some go on pilgrimage to Ajmer and other holy sites. A significant percentage of people visit India for business and pleasure.

The visa restrictions have stopped direct buses from Dhaka to Kolkata and Dhaka to Agartala. Direct train services from Dhaka to Kolkata, Dhaka to Siliguri, and Khulna-Kolkata have also reached a screeching halt. Similarly, both Bangladesh and Indian airlines have reduced flights by one-third in the absence of passengers who failed to avail of Indian visas.

Ahmad said people-to-people contact has been severely hampered due to visa restrictions imposed by India to punish the people of Bangladesh. Meanwhile, the Boycott India campaign on social media, which was joined by fringe political parties, melted after Bangladesh planned to import 50,000 tons of rice from India. The Interim Government recently imported eggs, green chilies, onions, and potatoes to stabilize the kitchen market.

On the other hand, India-Bangladesh bilateral trade is lopsided. Bangladesh’s exports are nearly $2 billion, while imports from India as of 2023 stood at $12 billion. This is also a contention with Indian policymakers and Bangladesh’s industrial, manufacturing, and exporters bodies.

As long as India hosts the fugitive Shiekh Hasina, who lives in exile at an official safe house near Delhi, it will be difficult for India-Bangladesh relations to reach a new height.

Unless she is extradited to Bangladesh to face trial for crimes against humanity, the relations will turn from sour to bitter. Fortunately, Bangladesh and India signed an extradition treaty in 2013.

The prestigious Indian Express newspaper argues that “India also has the option of refusing Hasina’s extradition because the accusations against her are not “in good faith in the interests of justice.” However, Delhi’s newspaper realizes the refusal to extradite Hasina may further strain ties between New Delhi and Dhaka.

Well, India has no option left but to take the risk to save Hasina from walking to the gallows for crimes for ordering the law enforcement agencies to shoot and kill hundreds of students and protesters during the July-August Monsoon Revolution, says former Ambassador Humayun Kabir, who served as a diplomat in India and the United States.

He also said Bangladesh should develop a contingency plan if India decides not to deport her. The government will also have to calculate the risk factor of whether Bangladesh can live without the most prominent neighbor’s fraternity, which had helped achieve the bloody birth of Bangladesh in 1971.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, 30 December 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Sunday, January 28, 2024

India is not among the top 10 development partners of Bangladesh

SALEEM SAMAD

When India promptly felicitated Bangladesh for holding a "free and fair" 12th National Elections, the government leaders in Bangladesh were visibly excited.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated his Bangladesh counterpart Sheikh Hasina on her "victory for a historic fourth consecutive term in the Parliamentary elections" and also said, "We are committed to further strengthen our enduring and people-centric partnership with Bangladesh."

On the eve of the 75th Republic Day of India, a Bangladesh business daily Share Biz in Bangla publishes a damning first-page lead story "India is not among the top 10 development partners of Bangladesh".

The story was published in the byline of a reporter Ismail Ali writes, that since the liberation war of Bangladesh, India is one of the friendly countries in South Asia.

Having the longest international border, the country always stood by its neighbour at various times. Bangladesh's diplomatic and economic relations with India are also very deep.

However, there is a lopsided trade imbalance between the two countries. India is Bangladesh's second-largest source of imports.

It is also worth noting that every year Bangladesh's trade gap with India is widening rather than narrowing. In the Financial Year (FY) 2021-22, for example, Bangladesh imported commodities worth US$14.58 billion from India, while its exports to that country were merely US$1.8 billion.

Every day, thousands of Bangladesh nationals travel to India for medical treatment, been lagging business and pleasure. The two countries have shared the same history, culture and tradition for centuries during the Moghuls and British colonial era.

An estimated US $5 billion annually is remitted to India by documented and undocumented Indian expats working in Bangladesh. Similarly, thousands of economic migrants work in India as menial labourers.

Although India boasts of Bangladesh being a development partner and heightened bilateral relations, which both countries reiterate on all occasions.

The largest country in South Asia is not on the list of top 10 development partners of Bangladesh. India has been lagging in foreign economic assistance to Bangladesh since its independence.

India has provided nominal economic assistance to Bangladesh for 52 years from financial year (FY) 1971-72 to FY 2022-23. This information has emerged in the latest report of the Economic Relations Department (ERD), a government department which negotiates foreign economic assistance.

According to ERD's report, Bangladesh's foreign debt has reached US $92.367 billion in the 52 years since independence. At this time, Bangladesh received US $30.105 billion in various grants.

The total development assistance received is US $122.472 billion. Of this, $7.031 billion came from food aid, $10.908 billion from product aid and $104.533 billion from project aid.

The World Bank has provided the most assistance to Bangladesh among any single international multilateral donor agency, amounting to $28.446 billion. It is 23.23 per cent of the total development cooperation.

The international multilateral donor agency has donated $1.623 billion under this economic assistance. The remaining $26.823 billion was loaned by the World Bank.

Another, multi-lateral donor agency Asian Development Bank (ADB), which is in the second position on this list provided Bangladesh with $22.424 billion in development cooperation.

It is 18.31 per cent of development cooperation and provided only $382 million to Bangladesh. The remaining $22.42 billion was disbursed as loans.

The two international multi-lateral agencies have never provided food aid to Bangladesh. However, the two agencies have given some loans under product support.

Japan is third in assisting Bangladesh. In the last 52 years, the country has given $20.452 billion or 16.70 percent of foreign aid. Of the total aid, Japan has given $3.609 billion in grants and $16.843 billion in loans.

China is in the fourth position. The country has given $8.115 billion or 6.63 percent of aid to Bangladesh. Of the financial assistance, China has donated only $104 million.

Russia ranks fifth in the list of development partners.

The country has given $6.874 billion to Bangladesh in the last 52 years, which is 5.61 per cent of the total aid. Of the country's aid, only $35 million was in grants.

The United Nations and its bodies are in the sixth position among the list of development partners. The UN has given the entire amount of $4.795 billion or 3.92 percent was disbursed as a grant to Bangladesh.

The United States ranks seventh and has provided $3.856 billion or 3.15 percent of foreign aid.

The United Kingdom was followed by the USA and provided economic assistance worth $2.727 billion or 2.23 per cent.

Germany, ranked ninth and tenth respectively in development cooperation.

The country gave Bangladesh $2.251 billion or 1.84 percent and Canada gave $2.214 billion or 1.81 percent.

Apart from this, India has given 2.143 billion dollars or 1.75 percent of development assistance to Bangladesh. And the European Union (EU) has contributed 2.105 billion dollars or 1.72 per cent.

Contributions from other organisations and countries amount to less than two billion dollars. Among them, the Asian Infrastructure Bank (AIIB), UNICEF, Islamic Development Bank (IDB), Netherlands, France, Denmark and Saudi Arabia have development cooperation amounting to more than one billion dollars. The rest have less support than that.

According to ERD data, different countries have provided food aid to Bangladesh at different times. Basically, in the post-independence years, food aid was higher. This support has decreased in recent times.

Over 89 percent of food aid in 52 years was received in grants, amounting to $6.268 billion. The remaining $763 million, or about 11 per cent, was loan assistance.

Food aid has been given to Bangladesh the most by the United Nations and its various organizations, amounting to 2.143 billion dollars. The United States is next in food aid. The country has provided food aid to Bangladesh at various times under USAID, amounting to $1.804 billion.

About 52 percent or $5.651 billion of product assistance came from grants and 48 per cent or $5.257 billion was loans. Japan and the World Bank provided the most product assistance. And 18.186 billion dollars or 17.40 per cent of the project assistance came as grants. The remaining 86.347 billion dollars or 82.60 percent was loan assistance. World Bank, ADB and Japan are the top three lenders.

Finally, on 20 January, Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar in a microblogging Twitter (X) wrote: So glad to meet with my new Bangladesh counterpart Dr. Mohammed Hasan Mahmud in Kampala [Uganda at 19th Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) Summit] and further stated that "India-Bangladesh relations are growing from strength to strength."

First published in North East News, Guwahati, India, 28 January 2023

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad