India’s efforts to thaw the frosty ties with Bangladesh will be difficult

Dr Yunus (R), Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri with Bangladesh counterpart Jashim Uddin.
Photo Collected

SALEEM SAMAD

The much-talked-about India-Bangladesh talks held on 9 December, apparently did not melt the desired amount of ice after the fall of the autocratic regime of Sheikh Hasina in early August.

In fact, the Foreign Secretary of India, Vikram Misr offers were too little, too less and too late to warm up the strained relations after Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus took oath as Chief Adviser of the Interim Government.

The Foreign Office Consultations (FOC) with his Bangladesh counterpart Foreign Secretary Jashim Uddin. The visiting Foreign Secretary highlighted India’s support for a democratic, stable, peaceful, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh.

“To that end, therefore, I have underlined today India’s desire to work closely with the interim government of Bangladesh authorities,” he said.

Vikram Misri said there is no reason why this mutually beneficial relationship should not continue to develop in the interest of our people.

He said they have always seen in the past and will continue to see in the future the relationship as a people-centric and people-oriented relationship—one that has the benefits of all the people as its central motivational force.

The parleys did not make any proactive decisions regarding the visa regime, which was unilaterally stalled by the Indian government after the sudden change of government. There were no tangible discussions on the resumption of the Dhaka-Agartala, Dhaka-Kolkata bus service, Dhaka-Kolkata, Dhaka-Siliguri, and Khulna-Kolkata Maitree trains, which came to a screeching halt.

The non-issuance of visas has also impacted the Dhaka-Delhi, Dhaka-Kolkata, Dhaka-Chennai, and Chattogram-Kolkata flights, which have been reduced to one-fourth after the Indian High Commission visa processing centres, except on special cases stopped after 5 August, the day Hasina fled the country.

Regarding issuing Indian visas to Bangladesh nationals, Environment, Forest and Climate Change Adviser Syeda briefing the media said Misri has assured that steps would be taken to increase the number of Indian visas for Bangladeshi nationals.

After reading out a written press briefing by Misri, he hurriedly walked away without taking any questions from the journalists, including dozens of Indian journalists presently in town.

Walking away from a press briefing means that the speaker either has something to hide or wants to avoid taking questions, which could be embarrassing for Delhi’s South Block.

The press statement issued by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) is fully loaded with diplomatic phrases and jargon. It says, Misri reiterated India’s willingness to build a positive and constructive relationship with Bangladesh, based on mutual trust and respect and mutual sensitivity to each other’s concerns and interests.

The Indian Foreign Secretary emphasized that people are the main stakeholders in India-Bangladesh relations, and noted India’s development cooperation and multifaceted engagements with Bangladesh.

The MEA statement mentions that both sides held comprehensive discussions on a wide range of issues covering political and security matters, border management, trade, commerce and connectivity, cooperation in water, power and energy sectors, development cooperation, consular, cultural and people-to-people ties.

The statement does not mention how the people, identified as the main stakeholders in India-Bangladesh relations interaction in the face of India’s blanket ban on visas will continue with people-to-people contact.

Political historian and researcher Mohiuddin Ahmad asked, “How will the so-called people-to-people ties will continue? On WhatsApp or social media?”

Ahmad was keenly following the recent development of India-Bangladesh relations, which have dipped to an all-time low in 53 years of all-weather friendship.He said when Indian media sang to the tune of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) advocating Hindutva, an extremist religious-cultural philosophy had embarked upon anti-Bangladesh rhetoric, challenging the legitimacy of Yunus administration, which was tantamount to downgrading the status of the India-Bangladesh ties.

Misri could not assure Bangladesh officials of the means to stop the anti-Bangladesh campaign of the ruling BJP and the Indian media to stabilise the hard-earned friendship, since the brutal birth of Bangladesh in 1971.

About the propaganda being spread by a section of Indian media against Bangladesh, Adviser Rizwana Hasan told journalists that the Indian foreign secretary claimed that the Indian government is not responsible for the anti-Bangladesh campaign and that Delhi does not subscribe to the disparagement against Bangladesh.

The Indian side also claimed that their government did not own the propaganda, the environment adviser added.

The majority of mainstream media picked up sources from fake news floating on social media without fact-checking. Several fact-checkers in India and Bangladesh have debunked scores of fake news, but Indian media has not stopped.

At least 49 Indian media outlets spread fake reports, according to fact-check outfit Rumour Scanner based in Bangladesh.

They are still playing with the Hindu card, terming the attacks on Hindus in the aftermath of the Iron Lady Hasina fleeing the country.

The Indian political leaders, several organisations and television news channels did not hesitate to coin words of ‘genocide’ and ‘ethnic cleansing’, without understanding the academically accepted definition found in textbooks and also in Encyclopaedia Britannica.

Mohiuddin Ahmad, who is a genocide survivor said how will one classify the ethnicity of the Adivasis? Never knew that Hindus are ethnic, he remarked.

Well, Misri aptly raised the concern of religious minorities and urged for their safety, security and welfare. He also raised some regrettable incidents of attacks on cultural, religious and diplomatic properties.

Misri also paid a courtesy call with Dr Yunus, he stressed reviving the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), an inter-governmental organisation that promotes economic, social, and cultural development among Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

SAARC was put into cold storage after India, Bangladesh and Nepal declined to attend the 19th Summit scheduled in Islamabad, Pakistan after a border skirmish in Kashmir.

The two officials during their parley, also exchanged views on sub-regional, regional and multilateral issues, and agreed to enhance consultations and cooperation to advance regional integration, including under the BIMSTEC framework. Misri did not mention SAARC, except nodding his head while speaking to Dr Yunus.

Misri will be the second senior-most Indian official to have met Dr Yunus, after the Indian High Commissioner Pranay Verma met the inventor of micro-credit Dr Yunus days after he took oath on 8 August.

After the parley with the Yunus, Rizwana Hasan briefing the journalists said India is eager to clear the cloud formed in the sky over Bangladesh and India relations after the ouster of the Hasina government.

There was no comment regarding, India recognising the Monsoon Revolution, the student uprising which ousted the autocratic Hasina regime.

He concluded that the discussions have allowed both the countries to take stock of the relations, and appreciates the opportunity in holding the meeting to have had a frank, candid and constructive exchange of views with all my interlocutors.

First published in the International Affairs Review, New Delhi, India on 11 December 2024 

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. Email: <saleemsamad@hotmail.com>; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

100 Days of Dr. Yunus: Triumphs, Trials, and Turning Points in Power

SALEEM SAMAD

The nation waits patiently. Aspirant political parties are growing impatient, and citizens are frustrated with Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus’s first 100 days as Chief Advisor of the Interim Government.

The Monsoon Revolution was a student uprising that abolished the quota for government civil service jobs for siblings of liberation war veterans of the bloody independence of 1971.

Yunus told the French news agency AFP that elections would follow after multiple reforms. He reiterates that reforms are needed before the country can elect a government following the ouster of autocratic ruler Sheikh Hasina.

The speed of reforms ‘will decide how quick the election will be,’ the Nobel Peace Prize winner and inventor of banking the poor said in an interview on the sidelines of the COP29 climate talks in Azerbaijan. He insisted that he would steer the country towards a democratic vote.

Dr. Muhammad Yunus emphasizes the need for constitutional reforms and a democratic vote to stabilize Bangladesh after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster.

‘That’s a promise that we made, that as soon as we are ready, we’ll have the elections, and the elected people can take over, run the country,’ he said.

He said the country needed to quickly agree on possible constitutional reforms and the shape of the government, parliament, and election rules.

The country has struggled with instability, admitted Dr Yunus since the ouster of Hasina, whose rule witnessed appalling human rights abuses, including the mass detention, extrajudicial killings, and enforced disappearances of her political opponents. Such incidents are presently absent.

A series of street riots by ‘non-paid’ garment workers, battery-driven auto-rickshaw drivers agitated to ply in the capital city Dhaka, and clashes among students of neighboring colleges for days.

Presently, the widespread agitation in the country has occurred after the arrest of a former ISKON priest Chinmoy Krishna Das Prabhu on charges of sedition filed by a member of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

The radicalized Muslims and students demanded ISKON, a Hindu spiritual international organization to be banned and punish the Sadus (priest) for nefarious activities, which has been deemed as anti-state.

Rising sectarian tensions in Bangladesh have led to violent clashes, particularly targeting Hindu communities and ISKON establishments.

However, the High Court has overturned the petition to ban ISKON but did not mention the safety and security of the Hindus in Bangladesh, which has a population of 13.1 million (2022 census) and makes up about 7.95 percent of the total population of 165.16 million.

Angered with the administration for not taking action against ISKON, the radicalized Muslims, with no affiliation to any Islamic parties or Islamist outfit attacked scores of Hindu temples, especially ISKON establishments in the country in the last few days.

Indian media lambast Bangladesh

Indian administration, ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), along with flocks of Indian media have come down heavily on Yunus government that he has not done enough to provide security to the Hindus and scale down sectarian violence after Hasina fled to India.

After a brief bout between Delhi and Dhaka over India playing with the Hindu card, the Indian media and BJP have called to ban exports to Bangladesh, which they argue would weaken Bangladesh’s economy and would submit to Indian hegemony in the region.

Mohiuddin Ahmad, political historian and researcher interprets such provocation as declaring war against Bangladesh, which they helped to become independent 53 years ago.

Delhi has ceased issuance of tourist visas for an indefinite period, since the collapse of Hasina’s regime on 5 August. India has cited the absence of security at the visa centres in the country. No announcement has been made about when the visa centers will resume.

For the past three months, only one Indian Visa Application Center in Bangladesh has been processing a limited number of visas for students and urgent medical purposes.

However, Bangladesh has not halted visa centers in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata Guwahati, Agartala and other cities for Indian nationals visiting the country.

After a call from Yunus, Bangladesh missions abroad have been advised to issue visas to visiting journalists on the fast track. Several leading Indian media outlets have visited the country, sans bureaucratic red-tapism.

Meanwhile, the official Facebook page of the Chief Adviser’s Office has debunked scores of fake news and disinformation churned by the Indian media and social media enthusiasts.

Mahfuz Anam, editor of an independent newspaper The Daily Star writes: The Indian media’s coverage appears to be driven by concern solely for Hindus of Bangladesh, rather than the people of Bangladesh [who were shot and killed by police and Awami League’s armed vigilantes]. Will that foster a healthy relationship between our two countries? I repeat that India should not see the recent events through the lens of Sheikh Hasina but through the lens of democracy, he remarked.

Yunus said it’s only three months after the revolution. “We are hoping that we can sort it out and have a peaceful law and order,” he added.

At an international conference in Dhaka, Muhammad Yunus said “We witnessed a historic political changeover just 100 days ago. Future Bangladesh will be based on justice, human rights, and freedom of speech.”

Managing sky-high reforms

Marking the interim government’s 100th day in office, the International Crisis Group (ICG) published a report titled “A new era in Bangladesh? The first hundred days of reform’. The think tank highlighted corruption, irregularities, politicization of administration and judiciary, and destruction of the electoral system by the fallen Awami League regime. This is the second one of the report’s two parts.

The Brussels-based think tank ICG noted that it will not be an easy task for the interim government to implement the reform plans. Against the backdrop, it presented a set of recommendations regarding the situation in Bangladesh.

A key challenge for the interim government will be to manage sky-high public expectations. Given the constraints on Dr Yunus and his allies – including their lack of governing experience, the pent-up grievances in Bangladeshi society and the country’s fractious politics – it will most likely be impossible for them to deliver entirely on their ambitious agenda.

To achieve this goal, the government will need to amend laws and the constitution; reform the election commission and electoral system; and make changes within the police and bureaucracy, given the centrality of these institutions to holding free and fair elections.

The judicial system of Bangladesh has never been entirely safe from political interference. Under Hasina, the meddling assumed alarming proportions as her administration used the courts to cudgel her political opponents.

The bureaucracy is not just politicized, though; it is also highly inefficient. The quota system has deprived it of many good recruits, while both large-scale and petty corruption, already commonplace, got worse under Hasina, writes the ICG.

As an interim government figure put it, “If we don’t repair our institutions, there won’t be free and fair elections or a smooth transition, so what will be the point of all this?”

As usual, echoing the concern of the citizenry, the International Crisis Group advised that the Interim Government’s first priority should be to restore law and order.

Trump towards Bangladesh

The fear psychosis in the minds of Bangladesh people regarding the comeback of Donald Trump, as President of the United States of America has been scratching their heads.

Jon Danilowicz, a former American diplomat based in Bangladesh in a post on his verified Twitter (X) @JonFDanilowicz writes: America First and Bangladesh First are compatible. Both nations will benefit from the historic opportunity post-Hasina to create a new Bangladesh that embraces freedom, unleashes the potential of its citizens, and leverages a diaspora that wants the best for both.

He further argues that the ‘anti-Trump’ rhetoric against Bangladesh’s Interim Government is part of a disinformation effort being orchestrated by the supporters of the country’s ousted dictator.

She is a long-time anti-American kleptocrat, whose government was responsible for killing thousands of people during her 15 years in office.   The people of Bangladesh want reforms leading to elections that will make their country great again.

He also warns not to fall for the Hindutva propaganda. What is most disingenuous about the intense Hindutva lobbying effort in Bangladesh is that it is not really about protecting minorities.

The goal of this effort is to rehabilitate Awami League and Sheikh Hasina for their return to power. Why do they (India) want Hasina back?  The answer is simple. They don’t trust the Bangladeshi people to choose their leaders and instead want to install a government that advances India’s interests.

Danilowicz concludes that the criticism of the Hindutva lobby is to brand anyone who supports the Interim Government and fought against Hasina’s regime, as an Islamist.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan on 2 December 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Exiled Sheikh Hasina will stand trial at The Hague, not Dhaka

SALEEM SAMAD

The time has come to acknowledge that Sheikh Hasina, the ousted former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, will not face trial in Dhaka. Instead, the international community will hold her accountable for crimes against humanity in the International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague.

Under the leadership of Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh’s Interim Government is preparing to initiate legal action against Hasina, awaiting the final report from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR).

This investigation focuses on the tragic deaths of over a thousand students and protesters during the Monsoon Revolution of July and August. Once the OHCHR report is finalised, the Interim Government plans to file a case with the ICC, starting the long process of holding Hasina accountable for her actions.

The idea to pursue international legal action was set into motion in September when Dr. Yunus attended the 79th session of the UN General Assembly in New York. During the summit, he engaged with Volker Türk, the head of OHCHR, and Chief Prosecutor Karim Asad Ahmad Khan. The decision to prosecute Hasina in an international court was made to avoid the controversy of bringing legal proceedings within Bangladesh itself, where political pressures might undermine the pursuit of justice.

Hasina fled Bangladesh just hours before protesters stormed Gono Bhaban, the official Prime Minister’s residence, on August 5. She boarded a Bangladesh Air Force transport aircraft and reached Delhi, where she has been living in exile ever since, in a secured military base near the Indian capital with her sister, Sheikh Rehana.

It was reported that Hasina has applied for asylum in a couple of Western countries. Unfortunately, no country has granted permission. Her choices were London (UK) and Washington DC (US).

She attempted to flee to London, where her sister owns a house, or to Washington DC, where her son Sajeeb Wazed Joy resides. Unfortunately, both countries denied her entry. The US swiftly revoked her 10-year multiple-entry visa, and the British government did not respond to her request. European nations were equally unyielding in offering asylum.

Hasina has lately become an outspoken critic of the U.S., accusing Washington of attempting to secure a military base in Bangladesh in exchange for political support. Washington scoffed off the allegation and said no such proposal was ever given to Dhaka.

India, too, has remained quiet on the matter of Hasina’s asylum. Yet, despite the embarrassment it causes the Indian administration, India has no choice but to provide her with accommodation and security, allowing her to stay in a safe house on a military base. It is a rare instance for India to offer political asylum, and it is clear that Hasina’s stay in India will be a prolonged one.

As the ICC proceedings unfold, the court will eventually seek her extradition to the Netherlands to face charges of crimes against humanity. India, is not a signatory of the ICC, but will have no legal grounds to resist the extradition once the court issues a request. Additionally, India cannot dispute the legitimacy of the OHCHR’s probe, as the ICC will be responsible for carrying out the trial.

Should Hasina be found guilty, she could face a lengthy prison sentence or even life imprisonment in a European jail.

Bangladesh is expected to bring serious charges against her, including widespread human rights abuses, enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and the illegal detention of dissidents in secret prisons. However, the ICC is unlikely to pursue charges related to her extensive corruption, nepotism, and favouritism during her autocratic rule.

Despite the impending trial, Hasina will likely go down in history for other reasons. She will be remembered for being the longest-serving female prime minister, as well as for overseeing the deaths of countless students and protesters during the Monsoon Revolution.

The journey of justice is long and uncertain, but it is clear that the international community is determined to hold Hasina accountable for her actions. In the end, it will be at The Hague, not Dhaka, where she will finally face the consequences of her rule.

First published in the Northeast News, Guwahati, India on 2 December 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter: @saleemsamad

Trump 2.0 World and Sheikh Hasina’s Sinking Boat in Bangladesh

SALEEM SAMAD

Just days after Donald Trump won a landslide victory in the US presidential election, Ambassador Humayun Kabir, a credible commentator on foreign affairs, said in an interview with an independent newspaper Prothom Alo that the bilateral relationship with Bangladesh and the United States will not be sailing in troubled water, as expected by ousted Sheikh Hasina’s loyalists.

“I do not foresee any major changes in US-Bangladesh relations,” the former diplomat said confidently.

He also said that unlike in South Asian countries, American foreign policy does not change after a change of government, whether the Democrats or Republicans win the election.

It is very rare for an incumbent regime in US polity to engage in witch-hunting of loyalists of the previous government or opposition political party. This unfortunately is very common in South Asia’s revenge political culture.

Dr Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh’s interim government’s chief adviser, has congratulated Trump on his election as the new US president, expressing optimism for strengthened bilateral ties and future cooperation.

Anyway, as reported on social media the disgraced Awami League and its exiled leader Sheikh Hasina were upbeat about Trump. They had an impression that his election victory would help Hasina return to power, who is living in exile in Delhi.

The Awami League loyalists believe that Trump, who lauded Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “good friend” and in a condemnation of “the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians…in Bangladesh”, would lend moral support to Hasina to return to power with the Indian help.

US President-elect Trump, who will be sworn in January 2025, painted Bangladesh under Dr Yunus as if the country is “in a total state of chaos.”

Promptly, Shafiqul Alam, press secretary to the chief adviser, said that Trump was provided wrong information on the contentious religious minorities issue after the interim government took charge in early August.

Meanwhile, Michael Kugelman – a South Asia expert, particularly focused on Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan – said US-Bangladesh relations experienced a reset this year.

It began after Bangladesh’s election last January, when US President Joe Biden sent Hasina a warmly worded letter, expressing “my sincere desire” to co-operate in a wide variety of spheres, after many months of bilateral tensions in the lead up to an election that the State Department would categorize as not free or fair.

In a hurry, Hasina sank her ‘Boat’ (the party’s election symbol). And political observers explain that it would be a herculean task to salvage the capsized boat in the years to come.

Obviously, Hasina ignored Biden’s warning. She went ahead to hold a flawed parliamentary election for the third consecutive term. The reset truly took off after the mass movement against Hasina last monsoon that brought Yunus to power. The State Department quickly issued a statement saying it “stands ready to work” with Bangladesh’s interim government, says Kugelman.

When she fled, she did not leave any message to her party leaders and members, who were left behind to face the wrath of the Interim Government. In a hurry, Hasina sank her ‘Boat’ (the party’s election symbol). And political observers explain that it would be a herculean task to salvage the capsized boat in the years to come.

Dr Yunus, like the US government, had been critical of Hasina’s illiberal and anti-democratic policies, writes Kugelman, the Director of the South Asia Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center in Netra News, an investigative journalism portal based in Sweden.

However, Trump’s election campaign “Make America Great Again” in his recent social media broadside against Bangladesh should be viewed against the backdrop of US electoral politics, he opined.

Meanwhile, a verified Facebook of Awami League announced observing Shaheed Noor Hossain Day on 10 November, who was killed in police firing in a 1990 student movement during the military rule of Gen Hossain Mohammad Ershad’s (1982-1990). Less than a month later, dictator Gen Ershad was toppled and imprisoned for corruption.

The Awami League announced at a protest rally at Noor Hossain Square in the capital Dhaka to eliminate undemocratic forces (the interim government of Dr Yunus) and restore the democratic system.

A purported audio message (which could not be verified independently) of Hasina urged the protesters to hold the portrait of Trump. Police detained scores of people having Trump’s poster.

Law enforcement crackdown against Awami League with Trump signs has drawn flak from Trump’s supporters on Twitter (X) handle @TrumpUpdateH. It says: Bangladesh police arrests Trump supporters for celebrating Trump’s victory.

Dr Yunus’ office also in a press release has made a rebuttal of the news stories in Indian media regarding the crackdown on Trump supporters in Bangladesh.

There have been no arrests or crackdowns on the Trump supporters, said the chief adviser’s media wing on Sunday night.

The government has vowed to prevent the Awami League protest. The statement described the Awami League as a “fascist party” and added that the political outfit would not be allowed to hold any gathering anywhere in Bangladesh.

Earlier, Dr Yunus in an interview with the British newspaper Financial Times said there is ‘no place’ for Hasina’s ‘fascist’ party in Bangladesh’s politics.

The inventor of “Banking the Poor” described the political party (Awami League) of ousted authoritarian leader Hasina as exhibiting “all the characteristics of fascism”.

He reiterated that Bangladesh would not seek the exiled leader’s extradition from India before the International Crimes Tribunal’s verdict, where she has been accused of crimes against humanity.

The FT writes that political rivals and human rights groups have accused the Awami League of rigging at least three elections (2014, 2018 and 2024), carrying out extrajudicial killings, and politicization of state institutions during Hasina’s 15-year tenure (2009-2024).

The students who toppled Hasina from power have been demanding to ban the Awami League. The government has already banned the student’s wing Chhatra League for mobilization of armed vigilante “Helmet Bahini” during the Monsoon Revolution.

While the government is debating whether the party should be temporarily suspended from politics, required to reform, or banned entirely.

Regarding the democratization process of the country, the government is in a fix on how to justify when a free, fair, inclusive election is held to form a political government.

The 84-year-old Nobel peace prize winner speculates that the Awami League might disintegrate, but stressed that its fate would not be decided by his interim administration as it was “not a political government”.

Any decision on whether Awami League could participate in a future election would be decided by a “consensus” of political parties themselves, he told FT. “They have to decide their political space.”

On the other hand, Awami League’s cyber warriors, loyalist intellectuals, journalists and expatriate Bangladesh nationals have been arguing that after Hasina fled to India, she is still recognized as Prime Minister of Bangladesh by New Delhi.

This prompted South Block in New Delhi to explain the status of Hasina. “We have repeatedly said that she (Sheikh Hasina) is a former Prime Minister, that is where it stands,” Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Randhir Jaiswal told the journalists in New Delhi last week.

However, India is officially yet to accept that the people of Bangladesh have toppled the Hasina’s government. It could be understood from the striking feature of Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s statement in the Lok Sabha (the Lower House of the People) on August 6 (the following day Hasina fled to New Delhi) – a complete failure to mention the Awami League government’s egregious violation of human rights, and the killings of over 1,000 students and maimed nearly 30,000 people in 36 days of July and August.

Jaishankar began setting up a context for the people’s uprising saying that there had been “considerable tensions, deep divides and growing polarization in Bangladesh politics” since the January election. “This underlying foundation aggravated a student agitation that started in June this year,” he told the Lower House. “There was growing violence, including attacks on public buildings and infrastructure, as well as traffic and rail obstructions. The violence continued through the month of July.”

The minister’s statement does not hint that Hasina’s government reacted with overwhelmingly excessive force against students, and police opened fire on protesters with live rounds, writes Tanim Ahmed in an independent newspaper The Daily Star.

Since the Indian external affairs minister glosses over the former government’s brutality, it appears to paint the anti-government movement behind Hasina’s fall with a nefarious intention from its genesis — which fits into the Awami League’s narrative — that this was a movement fomented by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jamaat-e-Islami or even external forces such as the US.

In fact, BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami took advantage of what turned into a bloody anti-government campaign and publicly supported the student movement.

Back to Jaishankar’s statement, when he says, “Events took a very serious turn.” His deliberate disregard for brewing tension among Bangladeshis, Awami League’s intolerance for dissent and telltale signs of the Hasina regime turning into a classic autocrat show a rather myopic and oversimplified Indian take on what is happening in Bangladesh.

Jaishankar’s articulate and witty tête-à-tête with journalists or at discussion panels around the world convincingly demonstrates that he lacks the caliber to appreciate these nuances. One wonders, then, if he had not been properly briefed by his aides on what happened in Bangladesh.

Tanim Ahmed concludes that the Indian establishment had built relations with the Awami League instead of Bangladesh.

The South Block’s Look East policy was to keep Hasina in good humor and continued to support Awami League for expedience despite its faults, and in the process alienated the people of the country.

In a contradiction to the philosophy of Chanakya (375–283 BCE), an ancient Indian master of diplomatic strategy, the debacle created by South Block was putting all eggs in one basket of Hasina. When the eggs are spoiled, the damage control is not effectively working.

Today, with the ouster of Hasina and the Awami League, India is quite naturally seeing more than its fair share of criticism and a dip in popularity.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, 11 November 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Awami League Believes A Victorious Trump Will Bring Back Hasina

Bangladesh Iron Lady Sheikh Hasina

SALEEM SAMAD

With very little or no chances of Sheikh Hasina returning back to power, the Awami League is now pinning hopes on Donald Trump. Sheikh Hasina's supporters have even started warning those backing the Yunus administration that they will soon face the consequences. However, Bangladesh doesn't enjoy a spot in the US priority list which could produce a sudden policy shift.

Most Awami League leaders, sympathizers, sycophants, cheerleaders, and partisan journalists who fled abroad or kept a low profile are upbeat about the US presidential election.

It would surprise many what and why an election held in another continent has to do with Bangladesh or who will be the winner – the Democrats or the Republicans!

Republicans have no stake in Bangladesh, but the Democrats, indeed, have some in the interim government and especially a very friendly relationship with Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus.

The Biden administration was able to take over some offshore oil and gas exploration in the Bay of Bengal after the Yunus administration took charge of the “Naya Sarkar” (new government).

Trump in a post shared on X wrote: “I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh.”

Yunus’ journey with the Democrats began when Hillary Clinton met him through his former American wife in the United States. Both Bill Clinton and Hillary were spellbound to hear the microcredit program of Yunus for the poor. He was convinced that the poor could be trusted for repayment of cash loans. Yunus affirmed the Clintons that “they [the poor] are good borrowers”.

When Clinton became Arkansas governor for the second time, banks for the poor were launched and proved successful with jobless Black communities in certain areas. Now there are hundreds of organizations in the United States, which extend microcredit to the poor, thus benefitting millions of them.

Since then, Yunus has become a ‘blue-eyed boy’ of the Democrats. He was ordained with the Presidential Medal of Freedom by President Barack Obama. Later, he was awarded the prestigious Congressional Gold Medal.

On Friday (Nov 1), US presidential candidate Donald Trump in a post shared on X wrote: “I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos.”

He reiterated that the Republicans will “protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left” and “we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi”.

This message squarely embarrassed the Yunus administration. Soon after a series of violent incidents, he swung into action which reduced the racial tension between the radicalized Muslims and the Hindus. The Hindu community leaders in collaboration with the civil and police administration have successfully held the largest Durga Puja festival all over the country, largely without further hindrances.

However, Trump’s statement on X, formerly known as Twitter, seems to have given fresh impetus to the Awami League Leaders and sympathizers who have openly lent their support to Trump in the world’s most talked about presidential race.

Trump in his message has raised two key crucial issues: the persecution of the Hindus in Bangladesh and an all-out praise of his “good friend Prime Minister Modi”.

If Trump enters the coveted Oval Office again, the Awami League supporters believe there is a hope that Yunus will no more be running the affairs of Bangladesh by the end of this year.

Amid this wishful thinking, the Awami League sycophants think that Modi, who is walking on a tight rope. will help the exiled Sheikh Hasina return to Bangladesh and retake her kingdom.

But it doesn’t stop there, as their wish list also says that all the leaders and protesters of the Monsoon Revolution will either flee for their safety or land in prison to be prosecuted for treason. Of course, Yunus will also face treason charges, with his old cases (which the present government has quashed) also reopened. He would certainly be awarded capital punishment and publicly hanged at the Padma Bridge.

The Awami League sycophants think that Modi, who is walking on a tight rope. will help the exiled Sheikh Hasina return to Bangladesh and retake her kingdom.

The Awami League sympathizers living abroad and others who have been keeping a low profile have taken to social media and threatening those they feel as enemies of the Awami League and Hasina, warning them to face the consequences of supporting the Yunus administration.

What will happen if Kamal Harris wins? There is a common belief that the fate of Awami Leaguers will be sealed forever.

Meanwhile, the Bangladeshi diaspora and those living in the country as a whole are divided over the support for Kamala and Trump.

Two things have to be remembered. Usually, the US foreign policy does not change overnight, like in South Asian countries, unless the issue in question is a challenge to national security and a threat to American citizens, said Ambassador Humayun Kabir who was in Bangladesh’s mission (2007-2009) in Washington DC.

Amid the humanitarian crisis in Gaza or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and other global issues, Bangladesh is not on the priority agenda to be discussed at the US State Department and policies fine-tuned, Kabir concluded his argument.

Whoever wins on the November 5 US presidential election, Washington DC will continue to hold its patience for a transition to democracy in the event of a free, fair and inclusive polls being held in Bangladesh. Until then, the impatient Awami League’s leaders and cheerleaders will have to hold their breath to return to power through a third-party intervention.

There is no possibility of Awami League launching a nationwide anti-government movement. The leaders and their sycophants are busy protecting their looted stash of cash, said political historian and writer Mohiuddin Ahmad.

The Awami League and Chhatra League are demoralized political forces and have lost steam for organizing an effective anti-government movement. They will not be able to stand in a face-off with the tens of thousands of student activists who toppled their 15 years of kleptocratic regime, remarked Ahmad.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 3 November 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Shutdown of Indian visa likely to strain relationship with Bangladesh

SALEEM SAMAD

On 5 August, the day the autocratic regime of Sheikh Hasina collapsed after angry students joined by protesters forced her government to collapse and she fled to India. The first thing the Delhi administration decided was to shut down the visa processing centres in Dhaka and elsewhere in the country indefinitely.

A couple of Indian visa centres were vandalised by anti-Indian mobs in the aftermath of the collapse of the kleptocracy regime. In the absence of police and auxiliary forces in fear of reprisal from the angry students for the deaths of more than a thousand protesters, they abandoned their posts and went into hiding.

Responding to a query from a journalist, Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Randhir Jaiswal in Delhi said that India would resume normal visa operations in Bangladesh.

MEA spokesperson in New Delhi said: “We are issuing limited visas. If someone needs to come to India for medical or urgent reasons, we are providing a limited number of those visas.”

He, however, said, “We are already issuing medical visas and visas for emergency requirements. Once the law and order situation improves and the situation becomes conducive to our resumption of normal visa operations (in Bangladesh), we will do that.”

The MEA spokesperson mentioned the “law and order situation”, which literally means Bangladesh is a lawless country.

The mindset of bigwigs sitting in the Indian capital, after Sheikh Hasina fled to Delhi, the country has plunged into chaos, like in Haiti or Kabul.

Indian media seems hesitant to raise the ongoing closure of visa processing for most categories; instead, they are busy critiquing the Interim Government of Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus. Playing with Hindu cards worried about the threats on the Hindu community by radicalised Muslims and Islamist groups.

The Indian media hardly wrote a line on the intermittent attacks, vandalism of business establishments and desecration of temples during the 15 years of Sheikh Hasina’s autocratic regime.

Squeezing of issuance of Indian visas to Bangladesh nationals is a tit-for-tat for widespread August incidents of idol vandalism during Durga Puja celebrations across various places in Bangladesh, India feels that the situation has not yet normalised, as indicated by the spokesperson.

Indian media and South Block have aptly ventilated their anger and frustration blaming Dr Yunus for his failure to contain the sectarian riots in several cities and towns.

Jaiswal further stated: “I would advise the interim government of Bangladesh to implement the assurances they have given (to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi) regarding the protection of Bangladesh’s religious minorities. Measures should be taken to ensure they feel safe.”

On the other hand, Foreign Affairs Adviser Touhid Hossain observed that issuing of visa is a sovereign decision of India, and cannot be questioned.

The Indian High Commission has resumed operations after a brief suspension during the student movement in July but is currently issuing only a limited number of visas.

“However, we have communicated with the Indian High Commission, as many individuals travel to India to obtain visas for other countries. This situation also affects students who wish to study in countries that issue visas from the New Delhi mission.”

The Adviser suggested to the High Commissioner that “if you relax the visa process, it will be helpful for us.”

The Indian High Commissioner Pranay Kumar Verma updated Bangladesh’s Foreign Adviser on the situation, noting that they are currently operating at “10% capacity” and have security concerns to address.

He (Verma) also mentioned that the South Block in New Delhi is working to facilitate visa applications for countries that do not have missions in Dhaka.

When asked if Bangladesh would reciprocate by restricting visas in response to India’s limited issuance, the adviser said, “That’s speculative. They have not stated that they stopped issuing visas; they mentioned it’s a temporary problem due to manpower issues and security concerns.”

The MEA spokesperson added: “Only when the law-and-order situation improves and we have a suitable environment for our regular operations will we be able to issue visas as before.”

“We will try to ensure security for the Indian Visa Centres,” the Adviser added.

Meanwhile, the passenger flights from Dhaka and Chattogram have significantly reduced flights to several Indian destinations due to fewer passengers.

Similarly, the direct passenger trains from Khulna and Dhaka to Kolkata and Siliguri have also stopped for want of passengers.

Only the land borders are open to several Indian states, including West Bengal, Meghalaya, Assam, and Tripura.

The reduction of tourists to Indian cities, especially Kolkata has severely dented the hotel, restaurant and tour operator industry. Shopping tourism from Bangladesh has been equally harmed, according to Indian media.

Among the top 15 countries, Bangladesh (22.3 percent) topped in Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTAs) in India in 2023, while the United States of America and the United Kingdom stand second and third respectively, according to the Indian Ministry Of Tourism.

Approximately 2.12 million tourists visited India in 2023, making Bangladesh the top source of FTAs in India that year.

A top Indian diplomat in the Indian High Commission posted in Dhaka confided that lack of security at the visa centres deters normal functioning.

Over a hundred non-essential Indian staff managing the centres have left for India in the aftermath of the student uprising and attacks in some centres outside the capital Dhaka.

He could not say when the visa processing centres are expected to resume normal function. The decision remains with the government in New Delhi after consultation with Dhaka.

It seems that tens of thousands of tourists are not expected to begin their journey in the coming winter.

First published in the Northeast News, Guwahati, India, 1 November 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Dhaka, Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Dr Yunus Gets Stuck in Dhaka Traffic, Bumps Into Rising Prices

SALEEM SAMAD

Dr Yunus, Bangladesh interim government chief adviser, is dealing with serious challenges amid public outcry. Dhaka is notorious for poor transport service and traffic jams, which symbolizes the situation faced by the Nobel laureate.

Celebrated Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus was appointed as Bangladesh interim government chief adviser in early August after a students-led uprising toppled former prime minister Sheikh Hasina.

But for the third month in a row, the people, who welcomed the change, feel the pinch. They have taken to social media to criticize the government for failing to control the vegetable prices, law and order, corruption and traffic system.

The price hike of essentials like groceries, eggs, rice, and lintels has skyrocketed, putting them beyond the reach of not only lower-middle-income groups but also the middle class.

As a result, the media has also joined in amplifying the silent voice of the disadvantaged population, especially daily wagers and low-income groups, who are the majority.

The egg prices as well as that of onions and green chilies have reached a point where the government allowed traders to swiftly importing from India to arrest the trend.

Dhaka Traffic Jam:

Meanwhile, people in Dhaka continue experiencing excruciating traffic jam daily, with commuters including students, stranded for several hours on the roads. And the net result is massive loss of human hours, imported transport fuel and the commuters’ anger.

But the main reason behind this mess is the absence of a mass transit system that could cater of the needs of millions. One can feel the pain of the around 23 million people living in Greater Dhaka, who are at the mercy of a rogue transport sector.

The public buses flout traffic rules and use old vehicles – which also cause air pollution – as they do not park these at designated bus stops. Not to speak of charging fares at their free will.

Hence, the people in Dhaka have now started calculating distance in “time”, not kilometers, because even a one-kilometer journey may require 30 minutes.

Last week, the Yunus government announced that all 25-year-old public transport to be taken off the road or face reprisal, in an attempt to tackle the situation.

However, the unrest in garments export industries over wage disputes and unpaid arrears has gradually subsided. The industrial actions by agitating workers were mostly against their factory owners.

In Bangladesh, there are two categories of export-oriented factories: Red and Green. There have not been any labor-management disputes and industrial actions in factories marked as Green.

These factories strictly follow international compliance which the factory owners, buyers, laborer rights groups and fair-trade networks have to religiously obey or their exports would face boycott.

Inefficient Government Machine:

Unfortunately, the law-and-order situation is not as satisfactory as expected. The military troops are deployed at key police stations in the cities and towns. In the aftermath of the Monsoon Revolution, mass absence of the police force impacted law enforcement. An overwhelming majority of police force from constables to officers were recruited on the basis of being affiliated with Awami League.

The entire police force went into hiding to escape the wrath of the angry students for the deaths of nearly 1,500 during the bloody Monsoon Revolution.

It means extortion, protection money and corruption have emerged after a brief hiatus. As reported in mainstream media, the underworld has changed hands – from Awami League hooligans to members of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) days after Hasina fled the country.

Mohiuddin Ahmad, a political historian, says the BNP goons in the absence of an effective government are fishing in troubled waters. With the law enforcement agencies and civil administration missing on the ground, the student leaders who overthrew the autocratic regime had to come to the aid of restoring law and order.

During the first few weeks of the student uprising, the stock exchange felt an earthquake. However, the mafias, who control the financial centers, have either fled the country or lying low draped with political color. But the passage of time, the stocks have gradually stabilized, with broad smiles on the faces of investors.

U-turns:

On the other hand, the government on several occasions has backtracked on its decisions during its three months in office, casting doubts about the civil bureaucracy.

Most of these decisions concerned the appointments for crucial government positions after hundreds of pro-Hasina senior and junior officials were shunted out. This backpedaling was a result of the pressure created by social media outcry and public perception amid a shifting political landscape.

Political analysts interpret this as signs of inconsistency, a lack of experience and determination, and the uncertainty troubling the government as it struggles to strike a balance between diverse demands.

The government’s U-turns sometimes appeared to be a result of having to navigate diverse pressure groups and maneuver around different preferences of the political forces.

Prof Al Masud Hasanuzzaman, who teaches government and politics at Jahangirnagar University, describes this approach as sign of “indecision”.

“The government had to take many decisions hastily because time was of the essence and thus some mistakes were made,” he recently told an independent newspaper, The Daily Star.

He said that the government was in in search of experienced and efficient officials to run the administration, but often had to give in to people’s demands.

Most importantly, 84-year-old Dr Yunus is managing a temporary administration, to tackle what he has called the “extremely tough” challenge of restoring democratic institutions.

Awaiting Reforms:

“None of us are aiming at staying for a prolonged time,” Yunus reiterated in an interview published by the largest circulated newspaper Prothom Alo.

“Reforms are pivotal,” he added. “If you say, hold the election, we are ready to hold the election. But it would be wrong to hold the election first.”

Without reforms in democratic institutions, like the electoral system, the announcement of an election roadmap would bring back the same old legacy of vote fraud, vote buying, intimidating the opponent candidates, influencing the polling officers and the worst of all – the filthy rich acquiring party nomination through highest bidding.

Most of the political parties have given nod to Yunus’ plan to hold elections after much-talked-about reforms. A couple of the interim government advisers have indicated that the ousted Awami League will also have to participate to hold inclusive elections.

To depoliticize the key pillars of democracy, the Yunus administration has constituted 10 commissions for recommending reforms in judiciary, law enforcement, election system, constitution, anti-corruption, public administration, and other sectors.

Hasina’s government has been accused of politicization of the judiciary, civil bureaucracy, and law enforcement as well as organizing flawed elections, to dismantle democratic checks on its power.

Yunus said he had inherited a “completely broken down” system of public administration that needed a comprehensive overhaul to prevent a future return to autocracy.

The hiccup of the new administration is not because the revolutionaries nor Dr Yunus have gotten enough time to do their homework on how to run a government. They also could not predict that Hasina’s kleptocracy regime would cave in 36 days of violent anti-government street protests, the political historian said.

In the post-revolution period, history says, the revolutionaries in different countries went through trial and error while riding on the back of a crazy horse, remarked Mohiuddin Ahmad.

First published in Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 28 October 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

How will Delhi react to Sheikh Hasina’s arrest warrant?

SALEEM SAMAD 

The International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) in Bangladesh has issued a warrant of arrest against the Iron Lady Sheikh Hasina to surrender by November 18.

Her autocratic regime collapsed on August 5 after a 36-day-long countrywide student-led bloody Monsoon Revolution, which killed more than 700 students and protesters.

The cases against Hasina have held her responsible for the deaths of hundreds of students and protesters in the anti-government street demonstration, which turned violent.

When she announced that the doors of Gonobhaban, the official residence of the Prime Minister were open for the student leaders, it was too late and too little.

Instead of negotiating with the student protesters, she ordered the police to shoot, kill and detain protesters. More than 10,000 protesters were bundled in prison vans and taken to magistrate courts accused of terrorism.

The ICT was established in Hasina’s tenure for the trial of those who have committed crimes against humanity during the brutal birth of Bangladesh in the 1971 liberation war.

The majority of the indicted persons were Islamist political leaders, a few police and local village elites. It was believed that political Islam would come to an end after the trial.

Hasina has been squarely blamed for indulging political leaders, party henchmen, and civil and police administration into kleptocracy. All the Prime Minister’s men were involved in money laundering, siphoning money from banks, buying properties in foreign countries, stashing money in off-shore banks and procuring second-country resident permits and dual citizenship after depositing millions of dollars in various countries.

After the ICT has issued a warrant of arrest, it is time to observe how Delhi’s South Block will react to the pressing issue.

International media has already made screaming news of the arrest warrant against Hasina and others. She is presently living in a safe house on the fringes of New Delhi, the capital of India.

She fled Bangladesh on August 5 by a Bangladesh Air Force transport aircraft from Kurmitola Air Force base in Dhaka.

On her arrival, Ajit Doval, the National Security Adviser to the Indian government, met her at the Hindan Air Force Base at Ghaziabad, not far from New Delhi.

No senior officials of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration have met her at the safe house since she arrived more than two months ago.

Her Red Passport, a diplomatic travel document and her Deshi Green Passport, have been revoked by the Interim Government. The United States and several countries in Europe and the United Kingdom have refused her entry.

Meanwhile, even after 73 days, more than two months Hasina’s eldest son Sajeeb Wazed Joy, living in Washington DC, USA, and her daughter Saima Wazed Putul have been unable to meet her.

Saima, who is working in Delhi as Saima Wazed, has been serving as the South East Asian Regional Director for the World Health Organisation (WHO) since November 2023 and lamented in her Twitter (X) that she has not been able to hug her and wrote a strange message that she is too busy in her workplace, series of planning meetings, meeting delegations and visit to several countries.

A high-profile Indian journalist who was with Ajit Doval’s outfit National Security Council, who is privy to the issue and does not wish to be named, said Delhi South Block has unofficially explored possibilities with a few countries for her stay in a third country.

Hasina is literally stranded in India and has nowhere to go. Delhi bigwigs are in dilemma about what should be their next step after India’s friendly countries did not respond to requests.

Well, it is too early for the Indian government to react as they will have to wait and see what is likely to happen after the deadline for appearance at the ICT expires.

Delhi will have to further wait for the verdict against the cases against Hasina to be delivered by the ICT. It is not likely before another year or more, as defence lawyers will appeal to the higher court against the verdict, which will take several additional months.

First published in the Northeast News, Guwahati, India, 17 October 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Is Sheikh Hasina’s next destination Russia?

SALEEM SAMAD

Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus met with International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Karim Khan QC at the United Nations General Assembly in New York last week.

Taking to Twitter (X), Karim Khan QC said, “Common visions to strengthen ICC cooperation ensure accountability for crimes committed against the Rohingya.”

ICC in The Hague (Den Haag) is hearing the war crimes and ethnic cleansing committed by Myanmar troops against the Rohingya Muslims after they were declared illegal migrants from neighbouring Bangladesh and dubbed as Bengali (meaning they are not Myanmar nationals).

It is not known whether Yunus has discussed ICC’s support for strengthening the Bangladesh International Crimes Tribunal. The ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been implicated in ‘crimes against humanity’ for the deaths of more than a thousand students and protesters during the Monsoon Revolution in July and early August.

The Interim Government, led by micro-credit inventor Dr Yunus, told audiences in New York that he would like to see former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina be extradited and brought to justice “if she” has committed crimes.

“Why shouldn’t be? If she committed crimes, she should be extradited and brought to justice…She should be facing justice too,” he said while responding to a question at “The New York Times Climate Forward Event”.

Earlier, he reiterated to an Indian media that Delhi should deport Hasina to face the music of justice for the deaths of thousands of protesters in less than 35 days of the Monsoon Revolution.

The number of times Yunus mentions “extradition” of Hasina, South Block in New Delhi is having hiccups. The worrisome seasoned officials and politicians in Delhi have kept their lamps burning regarding the future status of Hasina living in exile at a Safe House at Ghaziabad Hindon Air Base near Delhi.

A high-profile defence correspondent in Delhi said she is in a safe house for security reasons. Indian Intel believes that she has external threats and is forced to live in seclusion.

She is living incommunicado at the air base and unable to meet her daughter Saima Wazed, who has been the South East Asian regional director for the World Health Organisation since 1 November 2023 and is based in New Delhi.

Saima, in her tweet, admitted that she wanted to hug her beloved mother but was unable to do so due to preoccupation and hectic conferences in the South East Asian region. Does anybody believe her excuse?

Similarly, her son Sajeeb Wazed Joy, despite his best intention to meet his beleaguered mother in Delhi, has not been given diplomatic clearance to arrive in Delhi.

None of the ruling BJP politicians or officials of the Indian government has paid courtesy calls to Hasina, except for Ajit Doval, National Security Advisor of India. He was at the air base when she arrived in Delhi.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is yet to meet her. External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, while briefing the all-party meeting, said, “We received a request for a short stay.”

Ousted Hasina has always given the impression that China, Russia and of course India are ‘all-weather friends’ of Bangladesh.

The three countries have always lent their shoulders to Hasina, despite appalling human rights records, fraudulent elections in 2014, 2018 and 2024, money laundering, bank loot, poor accountability of elected rogue politicians and politicisation of democratic institutions.

The time-tested friends unfortunately did not react to the autocratic regime. Delhi, Beijing and Moscow’s silence encouraged Hasina to become an iron lady – a Frankenstein. She has brutally cracked down on opposition, dissidents, critics, journalists and even netizens.

Now that her long stay in India is likely to dent its bilateral, regional and global relationship, Delhi has to find a reasonable argument for not extraditing Hasina to Bangladesh authorities for her trial.

Delhi knows very well that if Hasina faces a politically motivated trial for the deaths of students, the court will hand down the death penalty. The Interim Government will not take any risk in keeping her alive.

However, the trial is not expected soon. The Yunus administration will wait until United Nations Human Rights Commission Chief Volker Türk, who took responsibility for deploying an UN team of experts to probe into the killing of the protesters during the “student revolution”, gets the report from the team.

Bangladesh will have to wait for the UN fact-finding mission to submit its report to begin the much-talked-about trial.

It is very rare for China to give shelter to exiled leaders from other countries. Then it leaves with two other “all-weather friends” – India and Russia.

With Dr Yunus’s hectic parleys with world leaders at UNGA, India read the pulse that it would be difficult to provide a credible excuse not to extradite Hasina.

Thus the best alternative would be to send her to Russia, where she will be safe and secure, several officials of the Indian National Security Council (NSC), who are privy to the issue, have confided with this journalist.

Russia has a history of ignoring international calls for extradition. For India, it will be difficult to absorb diplomatic and international pressure. So the only country for Hasina to live happily ever after would be Russia.

Well, when did Hasina live in Russia? It would be extremely difficult to determine the time. However, the NSC officials guess that the balls will begin to roll when Bangladesh will officially seek her extradition.

A top official in the Chief Advisor’s Office, who declined to be quoted, said it would be too early to comment on what Bangladesh should do if Hasina is shifted to Russia.

First published in the Northeast News, Guwahati, India on 30 September 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Bangladesh parliamentary elections is likely next year

General Waker-uz-Zaman Photo: REUTERS/Mohammad Ponir Hossain

SALEEM SAMAD

Bangladesh will not have to wait for years, as it happens in countries where popular people’s revolutions have ousted autocratic regimes and military dictators.

The election in Bangladesh is expected sometime in the winter of 2025. In a rare press interview, General Waker-uz-Zaman, the chief of the Bangladesh Army, told world-reputed British news agency, Reuters that a transition to democracy should be made between a year and a year-and-a-half, but urges to hold patience.

The military chief was candid in speaking out that the transition to democracy should be within a year and a half.

Why will it take time to transition? Bangladesh is presently under repair and in maintenance mode as described by the students on the city wall graffiti.

The country is being overhauled, which has crumbled during the 15 years of autocratic rule. All the democratic institutions like the judiciary, law enforcement, bureaucracy, education, election and media have been riddled with corruption, nepotism and favouritism.

Awami League, lifelong president of the party Sheikh Hasina, had deployed his henchmen and loyalists to govern the state institutions, which are supposed to uphold the pillars of democracy.

The inventor of micro-credit Dr Yunus, chief adviser of the Interim Government, has launched to overhaul the institutions through reforms on the principles of democracy.

In line with sweeping government, reforms proposed since Hasina was shunted from power, the army, too, is looking into allegations of wrongdoing by its personnel and has already punished some soldiers, Zaman said, without providing further details.

Come what may, General Zaman pledges support to Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus-led Interim Government, he told the Reuters correspondent Devjyot Ghoshal and Ruma Paul on 23 September.

Yunus, the interim administration’s chief adviser, and the army chief meet every week and have “very good relations”, with the military supporting the government’s efforts to stabilise the country after a period of turmoil, said Zaman.

Regarding the enforced disappearance of opposition, critics and dissidents, the interim government has formed a five-member commission, headed by a former high court judge, to investigate reports of up to 600 people who may have been forcibly “disappeared” by Bangladesh’s security forces since 2009.

The army chief admitted that some military officials may have acted out of line while working at agencies directly controlled by the former prime minister or home affairs minister. “If there is any serving member who is found guilty, of course, I will take action,” he said.

Regarding politico-military relations, he said that he wanted to distance from the political establishment from the army, which has more than 1,30,000 personnel and is a major contributor to United Nations peacekeeping missions.

“It can only happen if there is some balance of power between president and prime minister, where the armed forces can be placed directly under the president,” he said.

“I will not do anything detrimental to my organisation,” he said. “I am a professional soldier. I would like to keep my army professional,” he further added.

“The military as a whole must not be used for political purposes ever,” he said. “A soldier must not indulge in politics.”

First published in Northeast News, Guwahati, India on 24 September 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad