Bangladesh 'most trusted' by Indians

SUBIR BHAUMIK

Guess the country Indians trust the most - surely not where they prefer to travel for higher education or health care or with whom they trade most.

A recent survey on foreign policy issues indicates most Indians trust neighbour Bangladesh the most. And not unexpectedly, Pakistan the least.

The CNN-IBN-The Hindu Election Tracker Survey, conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, has revealed that while 37 per cent of India's voters feel that relations with neighbours have improved under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's UPA coalition government, only 19 per cent disagreed with the proposition.

When asked which countries should India either trust a 'great deal' or 'somewhat', 48 per cent chose Bangladesh while 46 percent picked Russia.

This is somewhat surprising considering that leading Indian parties like the biggest Opposition BJP have run a persistent campaign about illegal migration from Bangladesh and previous governments in that country have been accused of sheltering insurgents and religious radicals who attacked targets in India.

Even now the BJP and some regional parties like Asom Gana Parishad and Trinamool Congress are opposing a bill to be placed in the Parliament by the UPA government to formalise the land boundary agreement with Bangladesh.

Not to speak of the anti-Bangladesh tirade that often surfaces in Assam and other northeastern states on the issue of illegal migration and leads to considerable violence against settlers of East Bengali origin.

India's former ambassador in Bangladesh Deb Mukherjee feels this has much to do what the Hasina government has done for India in the last five years.

"I think this has much to do with the way Bangladesh has addressed India's security concerns very comprehensively in the last five years. Unlike during previous regimes, when insurgents from northeast India found sanctuary in Bangladesh," Mukherjee told the Hindu.

He said public attitudes are often shaped by recent memory rather than by history, which may explain why so many Indians feel Bangladesh can be trusted.

Mukherjee also felt many Indians may be suffering from a 'sense of guilt '.

"I am speculating that this could also be a result of a sense of guilt because India has not delivered what India should have delivered on and reciprocated, be it on Teesta waters or the land boundary agreement," Mukherjee said.

There is also a growing recognition that Bangladesh has performed well on social indicators and even its economy is doing rather well.

While India's rupee has fallen from 47-48 to 59-60 for a dollar, Bangladesh's Taka has appreciated from 84 to a dollar to 77 a dollar in a year's time.

For the first time in its independent history, Bangladesh has a current account surplus of $2.57 billion , while India's current account is woefully in the red.

And against all expectations, Bangladesh is on course to achieve its 2015 UN millennium goals in poverty alleviation two years before time within 2013.

In their recent book, An Uncertain Glory, economists Amartya Sen and Jean Dreze have noted that India has a lot to learn from Bangladesh in human development index.

Bangladesh is ahead of India and other South Asian countries in most of the criterion used to judge the human development index.

Former Secretary (East) in India's ministry of external affairs Rajiv Sikri has publicly called Bangladesh "India's most important neighbour' during a recent conference in Kolkata.

Russia ranks a close second among partners India should have trust in, according to the survey.

Anuradha Chenoy, professor at the School of International Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) and a Russia expert, recounted that this trust had 'wavered' after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

"Sections of the middle class, and the strategic elite, begun having aspirations that they should only go with the US. But after ten years of the strategic partnership with US, and its attitudes on a range of issues, there is a renewed faith in old partners, in Russia, and in the South-South framework."

This, she added, did not mean a reversal to 'Cold War politics', but an 'independent foreign policy'.

54 per cent of the respondents said India should have 'no trust at all' in Pakistan, while only 14 per cent said there should be a 'great deal' or some trust in the country.

These findings come soon after a poll done by the Australia-India Institute and the Low Institute for International Policy, which said that 94 percent of Indians see Pakistan as a threat, while 78 per cent see it as a major threat.

But their study also showed that 89 percent believe that ordinary people in both countries want peace. So there's an window of opportunity to use -- people-to-people contact may help.

China draws mixed response in CNN-IBN-The Hindu Election Tracker Survey, in a reflection of the relationship of competition and co-operation New Delhi shares with Beijing. 33 per cent of the respondents felt India should have trust in China, while 31 per cent believed there should be 'no trust at all' in Beijing.

That should mean there is a window of opportunity to improve relations with China , specially if India reacts positively to Li Keqiang's 'handshake across the Himalayas' and work on specific proposals like developing the BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar) economic corridor .

"This indicates that while there are sections pandering to jingoism about China, there's equal or more people in India who believe the two Asian giants can develop a great future relationship.

This could also be the result of the growing disillusionment with US, a strategic partner of India but with whom relations have plummeted on a host of controversial issues.

First appeared in IBN-CNN blog, July 29, 2013

Bangladesh: Momentous Ruling

S. BINODKUMAR SINGH

In a landmark ruling, the Dhaka High Court (HC) on August 1, 2013, declared the registration of Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), the biggest right-wing party of Bangladesh, illegal. A three-member Special Bench, including Justice M. Moazzam Husain, Justice M. Enayetur Rahim and Justice Quazi Reza-Ul Hoque, passed the judgment, accepting a writ petition challenging the legality of JeI's registration as a political party. The petition filed by the secretary general of the Bangladesh Tariqat Federation, Syed Rezaul Haque Chandpuri, and 24 other leaders of the Federation on January 25, 2009, noted that JeI was a religion-based political party and rejected the independence and sovereignty of Bangladesh. In its verdict, the Court observed: "By majority, rule is made absolute and registration given to Jamaat by the Election Commission is declared illegal and void. It is hereby declared illegal."

Chief Election Commissioner, Kazi Rakibuddin Ahmad, on August 1, 2013, stated, "Let us get the certified copy of the verdict first. We will take a decision after scrutinising the verdict. After the execution of the verdict, anybody from the party [Jamaat] will be able to take part in elections individually. Nobody can take part in the polls from the party platform."

The JeI was registered with the Election Commission (EC) on November 24, 2008, by making some provisional changes in its original charter. Significantly, the military-backed Caretaker Government (CG) had introduced the registration system before the December 29, 2008, parliamentary polls.

At the time of its registration as a political party, JeI had promised to further amend its Charter by January 24, 2010, in line with the 2008 Representation of the People Order (RPO), disallowing the registration of a communal outfit as a political party. However, JeI did not deliver on its pledge and, even after the expiry of the deadline, continued to ignore the EC's repeated calls to amend its Charter.

According to the EC's findings, a number of provisions in JeI's Charter, including the call for establishing rule of Islam through organized efforts and the refusal to accept Parliament's plenary power to enact laws, were not in conformity with the country's Constitution and the RPO. Indeed, JeI was founded in undivided India in 1941 by its first ameer (chief), Maulana Abul A'la Maududi, with the goal of developing an Islamic community of devout believers guided by and subordinated to 'Islamic law' alone.

On July 24, 2013, moreover, the EC had finalised proposed amendment to the Electoral Rolls Act 2009, in order to drop convicts of any offence under the International Crimes (Tribunal) Act 1973 from the voters' list.

Condemning and protesting the exclusion of war crimes' convicts from the electoral rolls, a JeI delegation, in a written statement to the EC on July 28, 2013, declared, "According to electoral law 2009, every citizen reserves right to be included in the voter list who are 18 years old of the People's Republic of Bangladesh. But EC has been determined to remove the convicted Jamaat leaders from the voter list. This is contrary to human rights and constitution." On the same day, JeI 'acting secretary general' Maulana Rafiqul Islam Khan alleged, "The government is trying to come to power again in the illegal way. The country will prevent strictly this kind of conspiracy."

It is significant, here, that the International Crimes Tribunals (ICTs) have, thus far,indicted 12 high-profile political figures, including 10 JeI leaders and two Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leaders. While 11 persons had been indicted earlier, the JeInayeb-e-ameer (deputy chief) and alleged founder of the infamous Razakar Bahini, A.K.M. Yusuf, was indicted by the ICT-2, on August 1, 2013, on 13-counts, including seven charges of genocide, one charge of looting and arson attacks on Hindu houses, and five charges of abduction, torture in confinement and murder in the Khulna region.

Thus far, six of the 12 persons indicted, all from the JeI, have been awarded sentence, four death penalties and two to extended terms of imprisonment. ICT-2 sentenced to death JeI leader Maulana Abul Kalam Azad alias Bachchu Razakar on January 21, 2013; ICT-2 awarded life imprisonment to JeI 'assistant secretary general' Abdul Quader Mollah on February 5, 2013; ICT-1 awarded death sentence to JeI nayeb-e-ameer Delwar Hossain Sayedee on February 28, 2013; ICT-2 handed over a death sentenced to JeI 'assistant secretary general' Muhammad Kamaruzzaman on May 9, 2013; ICT-1 sentenced to 90 years in prison former JeI ameer Ghulam Azam on July 15, 2013; and ICT-2 awarded the death sentence to JeI 'secretary general' Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mojaheed on July 17, 2013.

Meanwhile, protests, hartals (general strikes) and street violence, which have become the order of the day in Bangladesh, escalated after the HC verdict banning JeI. The JeI, its affiliates and supporting political formations, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) have been engaging in violent street mobilization since the constitution of the ICT on March 25, 2010, to investigate and prosecute suspects for the crimes committed during the Liberation War of 1971. Since the latest cycle of violence erupted, at least 30 persons have been injured. Moreover, according to partial data collected by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the country has recorded 139 fatalities, including 70 JeI and Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS, the students' wing of JeI) cadres, 60 other civilians, and nine Security Force (SF) personnel (all data till August 2, 2013) since March 25, 2010, in street violence unleashed by the JeI-ICS combine backed by BNP, as well as other extremist groups such as Hefazat-e-Islam (HeI, 'Protectorate of Islam'), who are opposing the War Crimes trials.

However, as SAIR noted earlier, strong resistance is, now building up against the repeated hartals called by the Islamist combine.

Against this backdrop, there are apprehensions that the cycle of violence will escalate, even as JeI's linkages with other dormant Islamist formations within and outside Bangladesh are restored. For instance, the Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), which came into the limelight after it carried out near simultaneous blasts in 63 out of 64 Districts of Bangladesh on August 17, 2005, has historical links with JeI. On July 13, 2010, the 'chief' of the JMB Maulana Saidur Rahman, who was arrested on May 26, 2010, had exposed the connections between JeI and JMB, revealing that he and several other members of the group had earlier been members of the JeI. Rahman is still under trial for the serial blast, though the group's other leaders, including Abdur Rahman, Abdul Awal, Khaled Saifullah, Ataur Rahman and Hasan Al-Mamun, were executed on terrorism charges on March 30, 2007.

Similarly, linkages between the banned Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT) and JeI were exposed on July 11, 2010, when HuT 'adviser', Syed Golam Maola, arrested on July 8, 2010, told interrogators that JeI 'Publicity Secretary' Tasneem Alam coordinated a meeting in 2008 to discuss a joint campaign against the National Women's Development Policy, 2008.

JeI links with Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) were exposed on March 29, 2013, when Detective Branch (DB) personnel arrested 13 extremists, including former JeI leader Farid Uddin Ahammad, along with Afghan war veteran Farid Uddin Masud who was a leader of HuJI in Pakistan, from Dhaka city. Nazrul Islam Mollah, Deputy Commissioner of DB, on March 31, 2013, stated, "The detained militant leaders directly and indirectly support the anti-government movement and they were working against the war crimes trial. Farid Uddin Ahammad opted for reviving HuJI as there are similarities in the ideologies of the HuJI in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan."

Deputy Leader of the Jatiya Sangsad (Parliament), Syeda Sajeda Chowdhury, warned against a extremist-terrorist revival on July 25, 2013: "They are trying to raise heads once again. they are conspiring again. We must get united as we'll have to resist JeI. we'll have to be tougher. we the freedom fighters will have to annihilate them in our lifetime. We'll have to resist those who still dream of turning the country into Pakistan. We'll never let the country slip into the hands of Pakistan. We'll have to move forward with the Liberation War spirit."

As the country's General Elections approach, the Sheikh Hasina Wajed Government will be confronted with a rising challenge to stem escalating violence and to provide an environment of security and safety for an ordered exercise of the people's democratic rights.

First published in South Asia Intelligence Review, Weekly Assessments & Briefings, Volume 12, No. 5, August 5, 2013

S. Binodkumar Singh, Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Bangladesh: Resisting Justice

S. BINODKUMAR SINGH

On July 17, 2013, the International Crimes Tribunal-2 (ICT-2) awarded the death sentence to Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) ‘secretary general’ Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mojaheed. The prosecution had stacked seven charges against him, including the killing of eminent journalist Serajuddin Hossain in Dhaka; mass killings at village Baidyadangi in Faridpur District; confinement of Ranjit Kumar Nath after taking him out of a Pakistan Army camp in Faridpur District; confining and causing torture to Abu Yusuf Pakhi; killing of Badi, Rumi, Jewel, Azad and Altaf Mahmud at Nakhalpara Army Camp in Dhaka; killing of intellectuals in Dhaka; and killing of Hindu civilians and persecution in Faridpur District. The Court found him guilty on five of these charges, but the prosecution failed to prove the charges of confining Ranjit Kumar Nath and confining and causing torture to Abu Yusuf Pakhi. Mojaheed was arrested on June 29, 2010, and was indicted on June 21, 2012.

Earlier, on July 15, 2013, former JeI Ameer (chief) Ghulam Azam was sentenced to 90 years in prison after the ICT-1 found him guilty on all five charges brought against him by the prosecution. These included instigating his followers to commit crimes against humanity and genocide all over Bangladesh in 1971; complicity in commission of the crimes specified in section 3(2) of the Act, 1973; the murder of Siru Miah and three other civilians; holding of group meetings with the Chief Martial Law Administrator of Pakistan in support of the Pakistan Army’s genocidal campaign; and organizing press briefings on several occasions in connection with these activities. Azam had been arrested on January 11, 2012, and was indicted on May 13, 2012.

Meanwhile, prosecutors A.K.M. Saiful Islam and Nurjahan Begum Mukta, at a press briefing on July 18, 2013, disclosed that charges against JeI Assistant Secretary General A.T.M. Azharul Islam (arrested on Aug 22, 2012) had been submitted to the registrar of ICT-1. The prosecution team added that the charges included genocide of 1,225 people; the murder of four; abduction of 17; one rape; abduction and torture of 12; and setting on fire and looting hundreds of houses.

In addition, ICT-1, formed on March 25, 2010, and ICT-2, created on March 22, 2012, to speed up the War Crimes (WC) Trials, have delivered judgement in cases of four other JeI leaders. The ICT-1 awarded the death sentence to JeI nayeb-e-ameer ('deputy chief') Delwar Hossain Sayedee on February 28, 2013; ICT-2 sentenced JeI leader Maulana Abul Kalam Azad alias Bachchu Razakar and JeI ‘assistant secretary general’ Muhammad Kamaruzzaman to death on January 21, 2013 and May 9, 2013, respectively, and awarded life imprisonment to JeI ‘assistant secretary general’ Abdul Quader Mollah on February 5, 2013.

The two tribunals have, thus far, indicted 11 high-profile political figures, including nine JeI leaders and two Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leaders. While nine persons had been indicted earlier, JeI leaders Chowdhury Mueen-Uddin and Ashrafuzzaman Khan were indicted in absentia by the ICT-2 on June 24, 2013, for their alleged involvement in killing a total of 18 intellectuals, including nine university teachers, six journalists and three physicians, between December 10 and 16, 1971.

Meanwhile, violent protests resumed across the country soon after the July 15 and July 17 verdicts, resulting in the death of at least nine persons and injuries to another 77. Indeed, according to partial data collected by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since January 21, 2013, when the first verdict in the War Crime Trials (WCT) was delivered, the country has recorded 162 fatalities, including 68 JeI-Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS) cadres, 85 other civilians, and nine SF personnel (all data till July 21, 2013) in street violence. As many as 4,316 persons, including JeI-ICS cadres and other civilians, and SF personnel have also been injured and 2,317 JeI-ICS cadres have been arrested for their involvement in 155 incidents of violence. The country has witnessed several hartals (general strikes).

The JeI-ICS combine, backed by the BNP as well as other fundamentalist groups such as Hefazat-e-Islam (HeI, 'Protectorate of Islam'), are opposing the WC Trial, and have brought turmoil to Bangladesh through their violent and disruptive protests. JeI Member of Parliament (MP) A.N.M. Shamsul Islam, condemned the formation of the ICTs as ‘politically motivated’, and on June 16, 2013, told Parliament, “The Government in the name of so-called trial of crimes against humanity is plotting to kill the top leaders of JeI, including Delwar Hossain Saydee and Motiur Rahman Nizami, using the judiciary.” He also alleged that the Government has revived a 42-year-old settled issue like War Crimes to weaken the opposition alliance and divest the country of its Islamic leadership.

Unsurprisingly, it is this combine that has solely been responsible for the bloodshed over the past months, and these various political and extremist formations have worked in tandem. In the aftermath of violence that began on May 5, 2013, HeI enforced a 'Dhaka Siege' programme. On May 8, 2013, State Minister for Law, Advocate Quamrul Islam claimed, “The BNP-JeI men carried out vandalism, arson and looting during Sunday’s violence”. Information Minister Hasanul Haq Inu, had noted, on May 2, 2013, “The movement of HeI is not to protect the faith of Muslims. They are working as the shadow of JeI-ICS, to foil the trials of war criminals.”

Indeed, ICT-1, while delivering the July 15, 2013, judgment against Ghulam Azam observed that the JeI, as a political party under the leadership of Ghulam Azam, had deliberately functioned as a ‘criminal organisation’, especially during the Liberation War in 1971. The ICT also noted:

In the interest of establishing a democratic as well as non-communal Bangladesh, no such anti-liberation people should be allowed to sit at the helm of Executives of the Government, social or political parties including Government and Non-Government Organisations. We are of the opinion that the Government may take necessary steps to that end for debarring those anti-liberation persons from holding the said superior posts in order to establish a democratic and non-communal country for which millions of people sacrificed their lives during the War of Liberation.

Significantly, the prosecution in ICT-2 disclosed on July 19, 2013, that it was preparing to file a case against JeI, for trial as an organisation engaged in War Crimes in 1971. Prosecutor Tureen Afroz stated, “We are working on the issue after the verdict in the Abdul Quader Mollah case. We all know about the role of this political party during the Liberation War. So they have no right to work as political party in Bangladesh.” Hannan Khan, Chief Coordinator of the Tribunal’s Investigation Agency also disclosed, “Our officers are working with the prosecution team. We have got many documents as proof of anti-liberation activities of Jamaat. They have no right to conduct political activity in an independent Bangladesh.”

Expectedly, the offices of JeI remain virtually closed across the country. Even the JeI central office at Maghbazar in Dhaka wears a deserted look as JeI men hardly visit it. JeI leader Barrister Abdur Razzak on July 18, 2013, said, "I look after mainly legal aspects of the party. Most of the front ranking as well as second tier leaders of JeI are in hiding." At present, the party has been demonstrating its existence mainly through its website and through statements issued to the email addresses of various media houses. However, JeI-ICS cadres have remained quite active on the streets whenever ahartal or any agitation programme is announced by the party, employing new tactics to escalate violence. On July 17, 2013, for instance, posing as mourners at a funeral, some 30 JeI-ICS cadres vandalised two buses and torched another in Dhaka city’s Kalshi area, and then disappeared.

Strong resistance is, however, now building up against the consecutive hartals called by Islamist combine. On July 18, 2013, for instance, people defied the JeI-ICS-sponsored countrywide hartal and came out on streets to do their routine work. More significantly, the sustained ‘Shahbagh protests’, which begun on February 5, 2013, demanding capital punishment for all war criminals, have continued for well over five months now. Similarly, on July 16, 2013, Sammilita Sangskritik Jote, a cultural organisation, rejected the verdict against Ghulam Azam and sought capital punishment for him at a rally at the Teacher-Student Centre (TSC) on the Dhaka University campus. Another citizens’ platform against militancy and communalism, Samprodayikota-Jangibad Birodhi Mancha (SJBM), on July 17, 2013, urged all political, social and cultural organisations imbued with the spirit of the Liberation War to urgently demand an immediate ban on JeI and all its associate bodies.

As the radical combine comes under increasing pressure, now virtually fighting for survival, it is likely to unleash even more violence. With a General Election due in early 2014, and a slew of WCT judgments hitting powerful extremist political formations in the country, political turbulence in Bangladesh can only escalate over the coming months, creating a grave challenge for the regime at Dhaka.

First published in SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW, Weekly Assessments and Briefings, Volume 12, No. 3, July 22, 2013

S. Binodkumar Singh, Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Bangladesh: An Emerging Threat

SANCHITA BHATTACHARYA

On June 27, 2013, two displaced persons (DPs) were killed and another six were wounded when Security Forces (SFs) fired to disperse a crowd that had gathered at a military base in Kyein Ni Pyin, a camp for DPs in the Pauktaw area of Myanmar's Rakhine State.

Again, on June 30, 2013, three persons were injured as rioters torched two houses in the coastal town of Thandwe in Rakhine State, during clashes between Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims.

Through 2012, Myanmar had witnessed clashes between Rohingya Muslims and Buddhists in Rakhine State, resulting in about 200 deaths and displacement of some 22,000 people.

These clashes and the resultant sectarian divide in Myanmar seems to have provided an opportunity to Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI, Pakistan's external intelligence agency)-backed Islamist formations to consolidate their hold in Bangladesh making the Bangladesh-Myanmar Border their operational base.

Indeed, according to a July 21, 2013, report, India's external intelligence agency, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), has confirmed that the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and its front, Jama'at-ud-Dawa (JuD) are working in tandem to extend their footprints along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. While the JuD leader Hafiz Muhammad Saeed is personally leading the Myanmar campaign, espousing the cause of Rohingyas from various public platforms in Pakistan, his subordinates have been planning and undertaking visits to the Bangladesh-Myanmar border region. Intelligence sources indicate that the Pakistan-sourced support to the Rohingya's is conditional on radicalized Rohingyas undertaking operations against India as well.

In mid-2012, the JuD established a new forum, Difa-e-Musalman Arakan-Burma (Defence of Muslims in Arakan - Myanmar) in order to mobilise supporters for a campaign against the ruling military junta of Myanmar. The JuD deputed a two-member team comprising JuD 'spokesperson' Nadeem Awari and a member of the Jama'at's 'publication wing', Shahid Mehmood Rehmatullah, on August 10, 2012, for the task of forging links with senior representatives of Islamic institutions in Bangladesh and Myanmar.

In addition, Bangladesh agencies tracking one Shafiul Alam, a dual Pakistani-Nepalese passport holder, who travels frequently from Pakistan to Bangladesh, recently found that he and one Abdul Karim alias Mohammed Nur Alam, a Nepal-based Rohingya operative linked to hawala (illegal money transactions) and fake currency trafficking networks, had been trying to set up training camps along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border for Rohingya extremists, in consultation with the LeT 'commander' Ustad Abdul Hamid.

Assessing the Lashkar initiative, on February 27, 2013, Home Minister of Bangladesh Muhiuddin Khan Alamgir noted, "Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) is active in Bangladesh and law enforcement agencies tracked down their network and kept them under sharp security vigil. It is the moral and legal obligation of the Government to uproot them totally."

Moreover, it has also been reported that other terror outfits such as Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), the latter with known links to Pakistan-based terrorist formations, are also trying to exploit the issue of the Rohingyas' 'plight' in Myanmar. In this effort, they are allying with NGOs led by Rohingyas, including the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation, to establish new bases in Bangladesh. Bangladeshi security agencies are examining whether Jammat-ul-Arakan, a new outfit comprising elements of JMB and extremist-minded Rohingya activists, is running militant camps in the Bandarban District along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border.

Meanwhile, links between Pakistani extremist formations and Rohingyas have also been uncovered by Bangladeshi security agencies. Bangladesh Police traced the funds in the bank account of one Maulana Mohammad Yunus, arrested in August 2012 from a madrasa (Islamic Seminary) in the Rau sub-district of Cox's Bazaar District, to Maulana Shabir Ali Ahmed, a Karachi-based, JeM-linked Bangladeshi national of Rohingya origin. Another madrasa operator, Abdur Rehman alias Imran alias Mustafa of Teknaf in Cox's Bazaar is suspected to have coordinated the arrival of Pakistan-trained Myanmarese mujahideen (holy warriors) at various locations of Cox's Bazaar at the end of 2012.

The expanding ISI footprint in the Rohingya belt of the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) was also exposed following the arrest of one Noor-ul-Amin from the Idgah madarasa in Cox's Bazaar, on September 11, 2012. Amin had reportedly served as a militant 'talent spotter' and a recruiter of Rohingya cadres in the past. Confirming his association with the ISI during his interrogation, Amin disclosed that the ISI was involved in gun-running activity in the Rohingya refugee belt in CHT. According to estimates, there are about 26,000 documented refugees living in two camps in Cox's Bazar District in CHT, close to the Myanmar border. Bangladesh Minister for Foreign Affairs Dipu Moni stated that 300,000 to 500,000 Myanmar refugees had entered Bangladesh illegally. ISI agents are also known to have close connections with the drug cartels in South-east Asia.

Evidently, the sectarian clashes in Myanmar have significant potential to impact adversely on the security situation in Bangladesh, India, and Myanmar. An unnamed senior Indian official observed, "Economic and social hardships faced by Rohingya refugees apart, the involvement of the minority group in arms smuggling, narcotics, safe sanctuaries for terror elements, including setting up of training camps, is going to be a major counter-terrorism challenge in the regional context." Available intelligence inputs indicate that extremist activities of Rohingya Muslims were being funded mainly by sources in Saudi Arabia. The militant cadres among the Rohingyas were being trained by Pakistan-based terror groups and the weapons were being procured from Thailand.

At the official level, India and Myanmar have agreed to cooperate to prevent cross border movement of armed groups, share information on seizure of arms and check arms smuggling/drug trafficking. The agreement was reached during the (Joint Working Group) Meeting between Myanmar and India held at Bagan in Myanmar on June 19-20, 2013.

The cycle of violence in the border areas of Bangladesh and Myanmar has increased security vulnerabilities in the region. Accordingly, on May 18-19, 2013, a new sector and two battalions (Number 50 and 51) of Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) were set up to ensure better border management along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, especially in Cox's Bazar and Khagrachhari Districts. Another BGB sector has also been established in Bandarban District.

As the ISI and its terrorist proxies step in to fish in troubled waters, it is now imperative that Bangladesh, India and Myanmar act, at once and in concert, to ensure that a greater sagacity attends Myanmar's policies towards the Rohingyas, and to destroy the emerging criminal and terrorist networks that seek to exploit the opportunities of the present disorders to create greater violence and instability in the region.

First published in SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW, Weekly Assessments and Briefings,
Volume 12, No. 4, July 29, 2013

Sanchita Bhattacharya is Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

Obama’s blunder with Bangladesh to suspend trade benefits

Angry clothing factory workers street protests for better pay and safe workplace

KEVIN RAFFERTY, special to the Japan Times

President Barack Obama recently announced that he was suspending Bangladesh’s trade benefits under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) because the country failed to give its workers proper rights.

Not for the first time, I have to wonder at the clumsiness and the lack of sensible, let alone sensitive, policies by the administration of President Barack Obama.

No doubt he was inspired by horror and outrage after the deaths of almost 1,500 workers in a series of criminal accidents in Bangladesh’s factories making garments for the biggest multinational companies in the world such as Wal-Mart, Primark, H&M, Marks and Spencer, Topshop.

Bangladesh factories suffered from several fires where workers could not get out because the exits were blocked. One fire last year killed 113 people. But the truly murderous culmination came in April when an eight-story factory, whose owners had ignored planning and construction regulations, suddenly collapsed like the proverbial pack of cards.

Police had warned about cracks, but the factory owners told worried workers that if they did not go to work they would lose their jobs: 1,129 of them lost their lives, and others survived only after crushed limbs were amputated. It was the world’s biggest factory disaster.

The punishment that Obama has imposed is like an old-fashioned sledgehammer to crack the proverbial nut — but the sledgehammer has missed its target. That’s a good thing because if Obama had succeeded in hurting Bangladesh, those he would have hurt most would have been the women who work sometimes in unsafe conditions of semi-slavery to produce garments for the world.

As Kimberley Elliott of the Center for Global Development noted, the U.S. action is in most ways a symbolic measure because GSP does not cover clothing, which accounts for 90 percent of Bangladesh’s exports to the United States.

The punishment affects about 1 percent of exports, or a trifling $35 million in goods, so it seems a clumsy way of making a point. It may be that Obama understood that what he was doing would have very little impact on the economy but nevertheless wanted to send a warning shot. But the way he did it smacks of bullying.

It also sends dangerous messages in different directions. It might encourage the European Union to follow suit, which would threaten more than $12 billion worth of Bangladesh goods. Washington’s action could also encourage big retailers to rethink and try to pull out of Bangladesh because Obama has withdrawn a significant seal of approval from the country.

Already one chief executive of an American company that designs and distributes high-end apparel from Bangladesh told the New York Times, “Right now, the name of Bangladesh just gives a bad rep (reputation) to a company.” A number of international companies are keen to explore other opportunities away from disgraced Bangladesh.

I have to declare an interest. I watched the creation of Bangladesh and its bloody Caesarian birth out of Pakistan with India as midwife. Even in the heady days of independence, the economic plight of Bangladesh seemed desperate, with few exports but heavy dependence on imports for all sort of basic goods, from food to energy and clothing.

Worse still, the life expectancy and literacy rates of the infant country were among the lowest in the world. The land was crisscrossed by rivers curling round each other like snakes in an orgy.

The main means of transport were country boats with home made patched up sails that had to be pulled if there was no wind, or slow buses or slower trains, all of which were usually so crowded that there was no room to stand, even on the roof.

What was the hope for this country, except for the heartwarming energy and enthusiasm of the people?

To cut a long story short, Bangladesh, after a painful start, has begun to make important steps forward, thanks largely to the women in the textile factories. They are the backbone of the $20 billion in clothing exports that have helped Bangladesh to climb up the world economic tables. Per capita income, thanks to annual growth of 6 to 7 percent, is $1,700, and Bangladesh now occupies 44th place in the global economic league tables.

It has gained a place in Goldman Sachs’ N-11 group of countries, meaning the Next Eleven, which have the potential after the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) to become the big movers and shakers of the world economy in this century. The list is an odd one, with some doubtful names on it, but it puts Bangladesh in the august company of Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey, which have begun to make their global presence felt.

Who could have imagined such Bangladeshi progress even 10 years ago?

But the women textile workers have achieved much more for their country. They have helped to change the social fabric, so that in key indicators such as life expectancy, infant mortality, the schooling of girls and combatting undernourishment of children, Bangladesh is now superior to its big neighbor, India.

Does Obama wish to bring his sledgehammer policies to crush their future and that of Bangladesh?

It would have been — would be — far better for Obama to use carrots before resorting to a stick. The U.K. government has shown a more enlightened attitude by asking leading companies buying goods from Bangladesh how they can work together to improve the standards of the factories. European retailers have also shown the right attitude — to try to make the working conditions safer and better for the women. But their U.S. counterparts walked away from any such deal, not wishing to get involved in legal obligations.

There is surely room for big international retailers to squeeze their profits to ensure safer production. Industry sources calculate that Bangladesh women get the lowest monthly pay of all the Asian women working in garment factories, a mere $37 for a 48-hour working week, against $120 in Cambodia, $145 in Vietnam, $300 in factories near Jakarta and $500 in Guangdong.

At the international level, where is World Bank President Jim Kim?

He has been quick to make grand statements about defeating poverty globally, but in this key area of actually doing something to protect vulnerable workers who are trying to raise themselves out of poverty, I cannot find a single word from Kim or the bank or indeed from the Asian Development Bank or from big international aid givers, apart from the United Kingdom.

Are they waiting for the Bangladesh government to ask for help to defeat its own corrupt part in allowing infringement of building codes that led to the rise and fall of unsafe factories and for protection of the politically connected factory owners who profit from slave labor and exploiting the women? Shame.

First published in Japan Times, July 23, 2013

Kevin Rafferty is a professor at the Institute for Academic Initiatives at Osaka University

Historic judgment for Gautam Das murder in Bangladesh

SUMIT GALHOTRA

Almost eight years have passed since the murder of Bangladeshi journalist Gautam Das, but the slow wheels of justice have finally rotated. Late last month, a court sentenced nine individuals to life in prison in connection with the scribe's murder. Many local journalists have hailed the verdict as a landmark, the first time a Bangladeshi court has successfully prosecuted a murder of a journalist.
 
Eight of the nine convicted on June 27 are junior politicians belonging to the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party, including the son of a former parliamentarian, according to news reports.
 
"This marks the first time in Bangladesh's 42-year history that the police thoroughly investigated the murder of a journalist, arrested the perpetrators, and that a court delivered a favorable verdict," said Manjurul Ahsan Bulbul, a prominent journalist and former head of the Bangladesh Federal Union of Journalists.
 
Shortly before his murder in November 2005, Das published a series of reports for the Dhaka-based daily Samakal, detailing corruption by BNP officials, according to news reports. His body was found strangled in his bureau in the town of Faridpur, 40 miles outside the capital. The following day, Das' colleague filed a complaint with local police, accusing 10 individuals in connection with the murder, many of whom were members of the then-ruling BNP, according to reports.  
 
But the long road to justice was pitted with potholes. One of the accused died during the course of the trial. Others were released on bail. Witnesses scared of testifying backed out, according to Saleem Samad, a local journalist who knew Das. And in 2006, the case was transferred from the local district court to the Dhaka Speedy Tribunal Court 1 for an expedited judgment after pressure from local journalists. One defendant challenged the legality of this transfer, resulting in further delays.
 
Seven years later, this "speedy" court delivered its decision. While many journalists and press freedom advocates have welcomed the verdict, Das' widow, Dipali Das, expressed her disappointment and concerns to local media that the convicts would try to use their finances to get out of jail. Her concerns are legitimate; Bangladesh is consistently rated one of the most corrupt nations in the world. Dipali Das said the killers deserved the death penalty.
 
It is widely accepted by those who knew Das that those sentenced are the individuals behind the murder. It remains unclear if these men are the masterminds based on the police investigation, eyewitness accounts and confessions of the convicts, according to local journalists. Bulbul warned that the judgment will likely be appealed, and in a politicized place like Bangladesh, there is always the possibility that the defendants walk free.
 
Impunity for journalists' murders runs deep in Bangladesh. At least 14 journalists have been killed in direct relation to their work since CPJ began keeping records in 1992. Six others have been killed for reasons that remain unclear. Bangladesh ranks as the world's 19th deadliest country for the press, according to CPJ data. "For last 40 years hardly any journalists silenced for their profession had received justice, despite media pressure. In some incidents the family members have rejected the court verdict, some have even withdrawn their case out of frustration," said Samad.

Bulbul is hopeful this may change. "This is the beginning of the end of the culture of impunity that exists for journalist murders in Bangladesh," he said.

First appeared in Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) blog, July 10, 2013

Sumit Galhotra is the research associate for CPJ's Asia program. He served as CPJ's inaugural Steiger Fellow and has worked for CNN International, Amnesty International USA, and Human Rights Watch. He has reported from London, India, and Israel and the Occupied Territories, and specializes in human rights and South Asia

Bangladeshi garment factories are located in buildings not designed to withstand stress of heavy manufacturing

RAVI NESSMAN, Associated Press, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Bangladeshi garment factories are routinely built without consulting engineers. Many are located in commercial or residential buildings not designed to withstand the stress of heavy manufacturing. Some add illegal extra floors atop support columns too weak to hold them, according to a survey of scores of factories by an engineering university that was shown to The Associated Press.

A separate inspection, by the garment industry, of 200 risky factories found that 10 percent of them were so dangerous that they were ordered to shut. The textiles minister said a third inspection, conducted by the government, could show that as many as 300 factories were unsafe.

Taken together, the findings offer the first broad look at just how unsafe the working conditions are for the garment workers who produce clothing for major western brands. And it's more bad news for the $20 billion industry that has been struggling to regain the confidence of Western retailers and consumers following a November fire at the Tazreen Fashions Ltd. factory that killed 112 people and the April collapse of the Rana Plaza building that killed 1,129 people in the worst garment industry tragedy. But the proliferation of inspections could signal the industry is finally taking its workers' safety seriously.

Rana Plaza was "a wakeup call for everybody" to ensure their buildings were structurally sound, said Shahidullah Azim, vice president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association.

"Earlier it was not in our minds. We never, ever thought of this," he said.

But Rana Plaza wasn't the first factory building to collapse in Bangladesh. In 2005, the Spectrum sweater factory crumbled on top of workers, killing 64. That building was also found to have illegal additions.

After the Rana collapse, the government and the garment manufacturers asked the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology to begin evaluating the buildings. The university formed 15 teams of two engineers each — a structural expert and a foundation expert — to conduct initial inspections, examining a building's support columns, frame, foundation and the soil it was built on, said Mujibur Rahman, head of the university's department of civil engineering.

Rahman said further tests using sophisticated equipment will be completed in the coming months.

AP was shown initial results of some of the inspections of about 200 buildings — many of them garment factories — on condition the factories not be identified. The owners volunteered their buildings for inspection — even paying for the surveys — a decision that suggests they are among the more safety conscious in the industry. The remainder of the country's 4,000 garment factories could be worse, said Rahman.

While initial inspections showed that many of the factories appeared safe, some had problems so serious that engineers recommended they be immediately shut down. Others were told to seal off the illegal floors at the tops of their buildings and gingerly remove the heavy equipment stored there.

"There were buildings that we found that were really critical and we asked them to immediately vacate those buildings," Rahman said.

The engineers found that huge numbers of the factories were housed in commercial or residential buildings not designed to withstand the vibrations and heavy loads of industrial use, Rahman said. Machinery vibrations were blamed as one of the causes along with additional illegal floors as the cause of the Rana collapse.

Most of the examined buildings did not have structural tests dating back to their construction, and it was "very rare" that an engineer supervised construction, Rahman said.

They found a building approved for only six stories that had been expanded to 10. Support columns that were supposed to have five steel bars inside them had only two. Other columns were too small to support the structures. Some of the buildings had structural cracks that threatened their integrity.

In one report, the engineers found structural cracks on two columns and a heavy power generator located on the roof, where its vibrations could threaten the building's integrity. They recommended sealing all the floors above the ground floor pending a more thorough assessment. Rahman said he told the owners it would be safer just to demolish the building and start over.

A five-story factory had 30-centimeter by 30-centimeter (12-inch by-12 inch) structural columns that did not appear strong enough to handle the load. The engineers called for sealing the top floor until the building could be strengthened.

Another factory building had seven stories instead of the approved five and was meant for residential use. Its 25-centimeter by 25-centimeter (10-inch by 10-inch) columns were too small and the foundation was not wide enough to anchor the building in the red Dhaka clay. The engineers recommended closing the top two stories.

In other cases, the engineers called for the demolition of the illegal top floor of a seven-story building and the closure of several other buildings with structural cracks.

Rahman said some owners begged him to change the recommendations, saying they had three months of back orders to fill and then could address the problems. He refused.

Other owners appeared to think twice about the inspections.

The engineers were initially overwhelmed with requests to examine 400 buildings. But after their work began, some owners stopped answering their phones and engineers were unable to visit half of them, Rahman said.

It was not clear whether all the recommendations were being followed, but there were signs that some risky buildings were being forced into compliance.

Not far from the swampy pit where Rana Plaza once stood in the Dhaka suburb of Savar, a factory was dismantling — on government orders — two illegal floors it had been adding.

Industry and government officials said they were taking the results seriously and have announced a steady stream of factory closures in recent weeks.

"We are very much taking care of this thing, because we know that for one or two buildings, we cannot destroy all the industry," said Azim from the garment manufacturers' group.

The group set up its own engineering team and inspected 200 suspect factories in recent weeks, he said. They found violations so worrisome they shut 20 of them, he said.

Some will be moved to other buildings, others will be strengthened and some will be allowed to reopen after heavy equipment is removed from upper floors, he said. It was not clear if those 20 factories overlapped with those inspected by the university.

The garment association also established rules forcing factories to submit structural plans and soil test reports or risk losing their membership in the organization — and their export licenses, he said.

Textiles Minister Abdul Latif Siddique said the government was conducting its own inspections and expects to close factories as well.

"I think 200 to 300 factories will be vulnerable, and I think we will identify those buildings very quickly," he said.

In the wake of the Rana Plaza disaster, the country was under extreme pressure from Western brands to improve safety, he said. But he also appealed to those companies to pay higher rates to cover the upgrades.

"To provide security, better wages and compliance is not cheap," he said.

Swedish retailer H&M, PVH, the parent company of Calvin Klein, and Inditex, which owns Zara, are among companies that signed an agreement to help finance safety improvements in Bangladesh factories. Wal-Mart and the Gap have not.

Experts said the recent disasters were a product of the explosive growth of garment manufacturing here from a cottage industry into a behemoth that employs 4 million people. It began in the 1980s with small factories in residential buildings with no special fire exits, the workers sewing and cutting on the lower floors while the owner lived upstairs. When the business grew, the owner moved out and the factory expanded into the whole building.

Some factories later moved into commercial space. The most successful eventually constructed their own buildings, but even that was unregulated until Bangladesh established its first statutory building code in 2006.

Mubasshar Hussain, president of the Institute of Architects, Bangladesh, said 50 percent of the factories likely have problems, but all of them can be addressed within a year with a coordinated campaign to retrofit those buildings.

"We have the manpower, we have the technology, we have the material. All we need is the awareness of the owner," he said,

But Hussain worried that the burst of activity following the Rana Plaza collapse could dissipate. He pointed to a long-forgotten 2005 garment association report recommending close structural monitoring of factories in the wake of the collapse of the Spectrum sweater factory that killed 64 workers.

Siddique, the textiles minister, said the new disaster was too horrifying to be ignored.

"We are serious now, hopefully it will be better," he said.

First syndicated by Associated Press (AP) June 13, 2013

Associated Press reporter Julhas Alam contributed to this report.