Indian Police Crackdown on Muslim Bangla-Speaking Migrants

SALEEM SAMAD

Two impoverished families have been working as scrap pickers for over two decades in the suburb of New Delhi. Both families were detained, transported in harsh conditions, and pushed into Bangladesh in the dark hours. Police in Delhi claimed that they are Bangladeshi citizens and that their ancestors were from a village in the southern district of the country.

The ordeal of the two families surfaced after their families filed cases with the Delhi High Court and Kolkata High Court. The families complained that the Indian authorities do not know of their whereabouts in Bangladesh, and the families do not have any contact with them.

The petition said that last month, Sweety Bibi and her two sons, Korban Sheikh (16 years old) and Imam Sheikh (6 years old) and another family, Sonali Khatun, her husband, Danesh Sheikh and their son Sabbir Sheikh, were abducted, and police said they were deported to Bangladesh as they were Bangladesh citizens.

Later, the West Bengal police collected several documents to prove that the family’s ancestors’ history is from the state of West Bengal and that they are genuine Indian citizens.

A video shot inside Bangladesh, which went viral on social media, showed two women, one teenager and one male, who was seen in the footage. It could not be ascertained where in Bangladesh it was recorded. The woman, Sweety Bibi, described in the video how they were forcibly abducted by police and later pushed into a foreign country and were alleged to be émigrés from Bangladesh.

In the recent spate of crackdown against illegal immigrants, India, when persons speak Bangla (the official language of Bangladesh and also spoken in neighboring states of West Bengal and Tripura) and are Muslim, that person, in the eyes of the police, is a potential demographic threat to the country’s security. The authorities jump to the conclusion that the suspects are “illegal immigrants” from Bangladesh.

All over India, such suspects in thousands were hauled and taken to different concentration camps. The detained persons are enduring untold miseries, agony and sufferings. They are tortured by law enforcement agencies. The encampments have poor sanitation, no running water and inadequate food.

Indian press, which habitually barks anti-Bangladesh rhetoric, hardly reported the incidents of the harassment and illegal confinement of Indian citizens, bracketed as “unauthorized immigrants” from Bangladesh. Most of them live in shanty slums and work as menial workers and have migrated from different places for a better future and financial solvency.

According to international media and rights organizations, they have been critical of such government-induced crackdown against the working class in India. Most do not have proper documents to prove their identity. Even though they had valid citizenship documents, they had those confiscated and were told that the documents were counterfeit.

Human Rights Watch (HRW), a New York-based organization, said India forcibly expelled more than 1,500 Muslim men, women, and children to Bangladesh between 7 May and 15 June, quoting Bangladeshi authorities. The police, while detaining the suspects, speak of harrowing tales of being robbed of their cash and valuables, the poor people possessed. For the detained Muslims, the sky seems to have fallen over their head.

India is one of the few South Asia countries where secularism, equality and rights of citizens are guaranteed in the state constitution, but the government and law enforcement authorities are flouting the law with impunity during the arbitrary crackdown on illegal immigrants.

The suspects are forcibly boarded on a train or trucks and brought near the India-Bangladesh border. They are pushed through porous borders into Bangladesh. Such “push-in” as it is popularly said on both sides of the border has become a regular phenomenon of the Indian Border Security Forces (BSF).

Bangladesh is encircled by India on three sides by land, and has seen relations with New Delhi turn icy since a mass uprising in August last year toppled the autocratic government of Sheikh Hasina, an ally of India, who is living in exile somewhere in New Delhi.

Bangladesh’s Foreign Ministry has repeatedly communicated with the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) to abide by international laws for deporting illegal immigrants. The standard procedure would be to produce a list of names, photos, addresses in Bangladesh, and documents to prove they are from Bangladesh.

Bangladesh authorities would verify their citizenship and decide who could be sent back. Meanwhile, some Arab countries, Malaysia, South Korea, the United States and other countries have provided documents of those deported for illegally staying in their country and are undocumented. They are listed when their work permit and visas expired long ago, or they were involved in heinous crimes and given long-term prison sentences. The criminals are sent back to serve the rest of their imprisonment tenure in their home country.

Political historian and researcher Mohiuddin Ahmad aptly said thousands of senior and junior leaders of Awami League, which ruled Bangladesh for more than 15 years, have fled to India, but they are not arrested for illegally crossing the border to India without valid travel documents.

The Indian government has kept its eyes closed to exiled politicians. The political leaders are mostly living in Kolkata and New Delhi at the behest of the Indian authorities. The majority of the Awami League leaders are Muslims and speak Bangla, but they are exempted from the crackdown, Ahmad remarked.

South Block in New Delhi remains silent over the pressing issue. Every week, the Indian border police are pushing so-called unauthorized immigrants into Bangladesh. The Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) is not at all informed of the push-in. The operation is secretly conducted and in the cover of darkness by the BSF.

Despite the arbitrary deportation of “illegal immigrants” including Indian citizens, embargo on exports to India, moratorium on visas for Bangladesh nationals, and other pressing issues, Foreign Affairs Adviser Touhid Hossain last week reiterated that the interim government always wanted a good working relationship with India based on reciprocity and mutual respect. Our (Bangladesh) position remains unchanged,” Hossain said, noting that no one from the interim government ever said they do not want good relations with India.

Meanwhile, HRW in a strongly worded statement recently said India has pushed hundreds of ethnic Bangla-speaking Muslims into Bangladesh without due process, accusing the government of flouting rules and fuelling bias on religious lines.

The Hindu nationalist government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has long taken a hard-line stance on immigration, particularly those from neighboring Muslim-majority Bangladesh, with top authorities referring to them as “termites” and “infiltrators”.

The crackdown has sparked fear among India’s estimated 200 million Muslims, especially among those speaking Bangla, the HRW statement said. “India’s ruling BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) is fuelling discrimination by arbitrarily expelling Bangla-speaking Muslims from the country, including Indian citizens,” said Elaine Pearson, Asia Director of HRW.

“The Indian government is putting thousands of vulnerable people at risk in apparent pursuit of unauthorized immigrants, but their actions reflect broader discriminatory policies against Muslims.” India has also been accused of forcibly deporting Muslim Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, with navy ships dropping them off the coast of the war-torn nation.

First published in Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 29 July 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders. Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@gmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Bangladesh’s “Mango Diplomacy” to Sweeten Relations With India

SALEEM SAMAD

Bangladeshi authorities are aware that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a strict vegan, but he has a particular fondness for mangoes. Modi has a craving for mangoes of Bengal (now a territory of Bangladesh). He cuts mangoes himself when he consumes them as dessert. He once told an actor when the celebrity asked how he ate mangoes.

The Chief Adviser of the Interim Government, Prof. Muhammad Yunus, sent 1,000 kilograms (approximately one ton) of the most delicious mango variety, “Haribhanga,” to New Delhi last week.

The mangoes are expected to be shared with dignitaries from the Indian Prime Minister’s Office, diplomats, and other officials within the next couple of days as part of a friendly exchange between the two neighboring countries, wrote a private news service, United News of Bangladesh (UNB).

Yunus’ government has initiated ‘mango diplomacy’ with India, weeks after the Foreign Ministry said New Delhi was willing to discuss all issues with Dhaka in a “conducive” environment. Yunus has also sent 300 kg of mangoes each to the neighboring states of West Bengal’s Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Tripura’s Chief Minister Manik Saha.

Bangladesh has a long-standing tradition of sending seasonal gifts, particularly mangoes, to the Indian PM and state leaders to reinforce cultural ties and regional diplomacy. This form of extending a gesture, often referred to as “mango diplomacy,” was also practiced under the previous administration of Sheikh Hasina, and it continues to serve as a symbol of goodwill and exchange, reports The Times of India.

Will the mango diplomacy likely thaw the strained relations after Delhi’s all-weather friend, Sheikh Hasina, was toppled and she sought refuge in a secure location, possibly in Delhi? The question among diplomatic circles is whether the mango diplomacy will reinforce cultural ties and regional diplomacy. Most of the observers are sceptical about the outcome of the bilateral talks.

Modi and Yunus last met in April on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok, their first face-to-face meeting since the collapse of Bangladesh’s former autocratic regime. Prime Minister Modi reiterated India’s support for a democratic, stable, peaceful, progressive, and inclusive Bangladesh. He also underlined that India believed in a people-centric approach to the relationship, and highlighted the cooperation between the two countries over a long period of time that has delivered tangible benefits to people in both countries.

The practice of sending mangoes has existed since previous regimes. But the relations between Dhaka and New Delhi have been sour after former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted from power last year following massive student-led demonstrations. The Hasina government has close ties with New Delhi.

However, Bangladesh’s new caretaker government chose to court China and Pakistan, fanning regional instability. Beijing has been trying for years to spread its tentacles in the Indian subcontinent. Through arms deals and loans, China is rooting its influence in Pakistan and Bangladesh, aiming to align its interests with Beijing. Amid diplomatic unrest, Bangladesh’s “Mango Diplomacy”, a form of outreach, is seen as Dhaka’s move to sweeten ties with India.

Hours after sheltering Hasina, India has imposed a blanket moratorium on visa services to Bangladeshi nationals. The visa centers are manned by skeleton staff for emergency visa formalities, like healthcare, students studying in India, and those seeking visas for a third country having their visa office in Delhi.

The moratorium has brought the direct train, buses, and border crossing for Bangladesh to several Indian destinations to a standstill. Most flights between cities of Bangladesh and India have been significantly reduced due to the lack of visas. Earlier, thousands of Bangladesh nationals visited India every day for healthcare. Now, everything has almost stopped for the patients for medical checkups and surgery. The hotel occupancy in Kolkata, Bangalore, and Chennai has reached its lowest ebb. Restaurants no longer prepare Halal food in the absence of Bangladeshi customers.

Another category of tourists was on a shopping spree and buying an expensive dress for marriage celebrations. Whereas, Bangladesh missions in Indian capital and cities have continued to issue visas, and Indian journalists receive visas on a fast track. Well, the Agartala (Tripura State) and Kolkata (West Bengal) Bangladesh missions were attacked and vandalised, alleging that Bangladesh is not doing enough to protect the Hindus. The visa section was temporarily closed in fear of further attacks.

Despite repeated assurances from Bangladesh authorities that the perpetrators involved in the attacks on Hindus were arrested and hundreds of others are on the wanted list, the Indian media did not listen to the commitment against sectarian violence. The violence has drastically reduced. However, after a brief lull, the visa section resumed in Kolkata and Agartala’s Bangladesh missions.

In 2023, India hosted approximately 2.12 million tourists from Bangladesh, making them the largest group of foreign tourists visiting India. While Kolkata is a popular destination, other cities like Delhi, Agra, and Jaipur are also frequently visited by Bangladeshi travelers. Additionally, pilgrimage sites like Ajmer Sharif and locations in the Indian northeast, Kashmir, and Ladakh were popular destinations, according to a tourist site.

Ambassador Humayun Kabir explains that the mango diplomacy will not make much headway for a reconciliation very soon. Delhi believes that the conspiracy to overthrow Hasina was masterminded with the help of the United States and China to keep India under pressure in the new geopolitical phenomenon.

Indian conspiracy theory says the USA also brought Nobel laureate Prof Yunus to power after gathering moss under the rolling stone. The conspiratorial power lobbies brought India’s arch rivals, China and Pakistan, closer to Bangladesh. In South Asia, Dhaka angered Delhi when Yunus promised to hold the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit, even if India boycotts the event.

India officially boycotted the SAARC Summit scheduled to be held in Islamabad in November 2016. On Delhi’s instigation, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Afghanistan declined to participate, citing concerns about regional security and Pakistan’s alleged interference in their internal affairs with India. Since then, SAARC has remained dormant.

Ambassador Kabir understands that Delhi is likely to open a new chapter with Dhaka and develop the bilateral relations between the two neighboring countries, not to a new height. Delhi is waiting for the Yunus government to come to an end. A new political government will take responsibility after the much-hyped election scheduled in February next year. Let’s wait and see how Delhi reacts to the new political government, which overtly wants to develop friendship with China and wants Beijing to support their relationship.

First published in Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 21 July 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders (RSF). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@gmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Is ULFA Separatist Still a Threat to Northeast India’s Sovereignty?

SALEEM SAMAD

The United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), once the fiercest militants, had caused havoc in Assam, in Northeast India bordering Bangladesh. In the 1980s and 1990s, India was torn apart by a separatist movement by radicalised militants of Nagaland, Manipur, and Tripura, all bordering Bangladesh. The civil war caused deaths and forced migration for tens of thousands. Many more lost their near and dear ones in the insurrections. Thousands were victims of arbitrary detention, torture and false terrorism cases by state security agencies, while thousands more languished in prisons for years.

India blamed Bangladesh for providing shelter to separatist leaders, training camps, weapons and logistics. Dhaka was often blamed, and India claimed to have provided evidence for inciting the rebellions in the Northeast. Bangladesh, since 1975, has had military governments which were apparently hostile to India. Delhi also accused Dhaka of aiding, abetting and cross-border terrorism to separatist groups in Northeast Indian pursuing different approaches to self-determination, greater political autonomy and independence of their landlocked territory.

The other militant groups are the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN); the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB); Manipuri separatist groups, including the factions of People’s Liberation Army of Manipur (PLAM) and Tripura separatist groups, the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) and All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF).

Last week, a faction of the ULFA-Independent’s hideout in the dense hill forest of the Myanmar-China border was pounded with drone and missile attacks. ULFA-I has accused the Indian army of killing its leaders in the Myanmar camp of launching drone and missile strikes on its camps in Myanmar’s Sagaing Region, claiming the attacks killed three senior leaders and injured dozens.

The group claimed that Lieutenant General Nayan Medhi (alias Nayan Asom), a key strategist, was killed in an initial drone strike. Subsequent missile attacks, allegedly during Nayan Asom’s funeral, reportedly killed Brigadier Ganesh Lahon (alias Ganesh Asom) and Colonel Pradip Gogoi (alias Pradip Asom), with 19 cadres injured and several civilians wounded.

The Indian Army, however, has denied any involvement, raising questions about the veracity of the claims and the dynamics of insurgent activity along the volatile India-Myanmar border, French news agency AFP and Indian TV Zee News reported. Instead, the Indian security establishment has claimed that several heavily armed battle-hardened ethnic rebels of Myanmar were behind the attack on the Paresh Baruah camps.

In a series of statements, ULFA-I alleged that over 150 drones, reportedly of Israeli and French origin, targeted its Eastern Command Headquarters (ECHQ) in at least three sites shortly after midnight on July 14, the separatist group claimed. Paresh Baruah, the supremo of ULFA-I, condemned the strikes and vowed retaliation, alleging that the Myanmar Army was aware of the operation in advance.

The Indian Army swiftly rejected ULFA-I’s claims. Lieutenant Colonel Mahendra Rawat, PRO of the Defence Guwahati, told the media, “There are no inputs with the Indian Army on such an operation.” ULFA-I, a hard-line faction, was formed in 2012 by Paresh Baruah, formerly the military commander of the unified ULFA in the 1990s. He was a football player and was very popular as the goalkeeper of the Assam team.

During the Bangladesh liberation war in 1971, he was a young volunteer in refugee camps in Assam. During his volunteer tenure, he befriended several political and student leaders in exile in India. He also developed rapport with the Mukti Bahini officers, who defected from the Pakistan Army. When ULFA was formed in April 1979, Paresh Baruah liaised between the rogue Bangladesh Army officers, who had mostly served with the Mukti Bahini. He was able to negotiate with top brass in the Bangladeshi military.

Bangladesh’s spy agency, DGFI (Director General of Forces Intelligence), was deployed to provide logistics to ULFA. It was claimed in some documents that the DGFI was able to convince the Pakistan spy agency ISI, and also able to contact the Chinese Communist Party to extend military help.

The separatists intermittently received cargoes of Chinese-made AK-47s from several clandestine arms factories in South Asian countries. They were given light weapons, wireless equipment, explosives, and counterattack arsenals. Which is good enough to keep the Indian Army, the ruthless paramilitary Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and other security forces at bay.

It’s undeniable that ULFA leaders operated from covert headquarters in the Bangladesh capital, Dhaka and were protected by the state security agency in that period. This was disclosed by the ULFA chairman, Arabinda Rajkhowa, in his biography after he quit the armed struggle and made peace with Indian authorities. He is presently living in a safe house in India.

The pro-talks ULFA signed a peace accord with the government in December 2023, and disbanded the militant outfit in January 2024, ending its 44-year hit-and-run guerrilla warfare. His biography depicts his entire security detail, including the minute details of the place where his children were studying in Dhaka.

Several names of security officers of Bangladesh military intelligence, who are now mostly retired or have migrated to the West, are mentioned in his biography. His biography even details how he, along with his comrades, was extradited to India by Bangladesh authorities. Indian media, however, had published and claimed that they were captured from the Bangladesh-Indian border, since their camps were mostly on the Assam-Bangladesh border. A local reporter exploring the northeast border with Assam and Arunachal had found several shelters of ULFA militants inside Bangladesh territory.

Similar forced deportations were carried out with the leaders of NLTF, NSCN, NDFB, PLAM and ATTF as their camps were dismantled, and they were forced to leave the territory in the first few years after Hasina returned to power in 2009. However, in 1986, when Sheikh Hasina became the prime minister, she failed to deport the separatist leaders due to the intransigent attitude of some powerful military officers and bureaucrats.

During the government of Begum Khaleda Zia (2001-2006), her party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), a close associate, moved the Home Affairs Ministry and the court of law to provide political asylum to the separatist leaders instead of deporting them to India.

The splinter group ULFA (I) has rejected peace talks, demands Assam’s sovereignty and vows to continue the armed struggle, while the mainstream ULFA, led by Arabinda Rajkhowa, has signed a peace accord in December 2023 with Delhi. The militant outfit was disbanded in January 2024, ending its 44-year hit-and-run guerrilla tactics. Baruah-led militant outfit, which operates from Myanmar soil and refers to the Indian Army as “colonial occupational forces”. Insurgent outfits of the Northeast have had a presence in Myanmar since the late eighties, taking advantage of the porous border and the ongoing ethnic conflict there.

Indian security agencies have repeatedly expressed concern over the use of Myanmar territory by militants for hit-and-run attacks in the Northeast. There have been instances of reported Indian military action against militants across the border on several occasions.

The Myanmar authorities are mum about the recent reported strikes by India, which either depicts a tacit nod by Yangon or an indifference due to their multiple troubles at home.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 16 July 2025 

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders. Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Bangladesh on The Election Train!

SALEEM SAMAD

After 18 months, the nation will go for an election in February 2026. Since the Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus took charge of the Interim Government last August, he faced several hiccups in running the administration. One of the challenges he faced was when his government announced a road map for a free, fair, and credible election. In this election, people would be able to express their wish to elect a party that would form a legitimate political government.

The other challenge was stabilizing the situation of law and order. Most of the police forces have fled their ranks in fear of retaliation by protesters for killing thousands of students and protesters. The understaffed police forces are inadequate to restore law and order in the country.

However, law enforcement has been supplemented by the Bangladesh Army in every city and town. Initiate the trial of leaders of Awami League, including former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, for crimes against humanity for ordering to opening fire upon thousands of protesters.

During the bloody July-August anti-government street protests known as the Monsoon Revolution, Hasina was forced to quit and flee to India, where she is living in exile for the second time in her political career. Meanwhile, in a typical political development, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP’s) supremo Tarique Rahman, acting Chairman, held a parley with visiting Prof Yunus in London, where he was living in exile.

The hour-long parley thawed a couple of crucial political discontentment with the new government. Yunus repeatedly said the election should be held before June next year. But BNP, a rightist democratic party, demanded that the election be held at the end of December. Or else there will political and economic crisis, which may cause a law and order situation.

Yunus is determined that the election should be held after the crucial reforms are agreed upon with the political parties. However, BNP and its like-minded fringe politics did not give any specific reason for demanding the election to be held at the end of this year. Political circles said that the high school final exam, the month of fasting in Ramadan from mid-February, Eid ul Fitr in mid-March 2026, the advent of monsoon, etc., were not favorable for a general election.

Earlier on the eve of Eid ul-Adha, Yunus announced that the election would be held in April 2026. Well, the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami’s chief, Dr. Shafiqur Rahman, has said the chief advisor’s announcement has reassured the nation of the transition to democracy. The National Citizens’ Party (NCP) stated that steps should be taken to implement the July Charter (Monsoon Revolution), and the proposed reforms; they have no objection to elections being held within the announced timeframe.

BNP rejected the election announcement and declared street protests against the government to hold polls by the end of December. BNP supremo Rahman, after the parley in London, agreed that the deadline for the political parties to commit to the reforms in the judiciary, the election commission, the bureaucracy, police administration, the anti-corruption commission, and others.

Yunus wants the political parties to agree to the reform proposals to ensure transparency, accountability, and public social responsibility of elected leaders. The politicians to keep their party supporters loyal to them, and ensure that the henchmen enjoy impunity for the crimes, they need to influence the police, judiciary, and civil administration.

Therefore, it is understood that the politicians oppose reforms. They have been arguing that the Interim Government does not have the jurisdiction to conduct any reforms. Like the howls of jackals, the parties want the elected parliament should endorse the reforms and make them public laws for the benefit of the people.

Meanwhile, BNP’s high command has refused to ally with Jamaat-e-Islami or any Islamist party. BNP is confident that it will win the majority to form a government. BNP also has also problem with the newly formed King’s party – the National Citizens Party (NCP) by the student leaders who have spearheaded the Monsoon Revolution, which toppled the iron lady Hasina last August.

The NCP blames BNP’s inherent weakness for failing to topple the autocratic regime, which ruled Bangladesh for more than 15 years. Hasina intermittently hunted and haunted the opposition. Her government arrested tens of thousands of BNP leaders, activists and supporters and threw them in prisons on terrorism charges, damaging government properties, and attacking police.

BNP and other opposition leaders were immobilized. The opposition was neutralized after several brutal crackdowns by the law enforcement agencies and henchmen of the ruling Awami League. The opposition was unable to organize effective anti-government street protests to block the elections, which were boycotted.

The elections of 2014, 2018, and 2024 were held sans the opposition and the poll results were doctored, according to national and international election observers, which echoed the media coverage of the election ballot box stuffing, henchmen taking possession of polling stations, and widespread vote buying.

Hasina never bothered to hold free, fair, and inclusive elections. She deliberately ignored the media feedback, human rights organizations’ statements, and the poll observers’ report. She took the senior journalists into her confidence with lucrative benefits. She split the journalists’ union among pro-government loyalists and pushed others to join the opposition union.

Hundreds of journalists faced legal harassment, intimidation and were jailed under repressive cybercrime laws. The draconian cyber laws targeted opposition, critics, dissidents and especially the “delinquent” journalists who refused to be loyal to Hasina.

The media landscape has changed. Most media cannot publish/broadcast news, which hurts the feelings of the student leaders of NCP. Often, they barge into the newsroom when they are dissatisfied with certain news outlets critiquing their source of funding for holding massive rallies and a lavish lifestyle.

In most cases, they intimidate news organizations to delete the story or headlines that are deemed inappropriate and tarnish their image as revolutionaries. Scores of journalists were terminated or asked to resign in the face of the NCP’s threats. They forced the National Press Club in Dhaka to cancel more than a hundred veteran journalists and senior members of the club.

Dr Rakib Al Hasan, Executive Director of the Center for Partnership Initiative, a research office, said NCP failed to gather moss from rolling stones. The new party does not believe in pluralism and secularism. They have been engaged in witch-hunting against professionals, and bureaucrats, including journalists, professors of state universities, and teachers of several educational institutions.

The television and stage actors were banned from shows. Several of the plays were postponed until the drama producers got rid of the actors. The student leaders have lost credibility among the mainstream journalists, intellectuals, and the military hierarchy, which still remains steadfast behind Prof Yunus, remarked Hasan.

What is disliked by the sympathizers of student leaders for appeasing Jamaat-e-Islami and other radicalized Islamic groups, who are cut off from the masses, said the young researcher.

It will be difficult for NCP to muster the support of the millions who also joined the Monsoon Revolution to vote for them in the upcoming election, which is now scheduled to be held eight months from now, predicts the private research organization.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, on 14 June 2025 

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

ASEAN’s Missed Opportunity for Beleaguered Myanmar

SALEEM SAMAD

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) once again failed Myanmar at the summit in Kuala Lumpur from 26 to 27 May 2025 with a “Peace Formula”, when the country plunged into a bloody civil war with “revolutionary” armed ethnic groups.

ASEAN is an intergovernmental organization of ten Southeast Asian countries: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Host Malaysia, as the current chairman of ASEAN, delivered a meaningless statement on Myanmar and offered no new approaches to dealing with the crisis in the country, which has been beleaguered by a military dictatorship since 2021.

Instead of dusting off their hands, the summit offered a toothless Five-Point Consensus (5PC) as a road map for addressing Myanmar’s tribulations. The ethnic rebels are more concerned with holding their ancestral territories and establishing regional autonomy under a constitutional government. None of the rebels has a military plan to capture Myanmar’s capital.

To topple the military regime in Naypyidaw and form a national democratic government, the rebel groups have placed the responsibility upon the National Unity Government (NUG), a shadow government in exile under the political inspiration of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. The ousted leader is presently serving jail terms on charges of sedition.

Myanmar’s capital, Naypyidaw, is besieged by ethnic rebels who have taken two-thirds of the country from the military junta led by General Min Aung Hlaing, who has ruled Myanmar as the State Administration Council (SAC) Chairman since seizing power in the February 2021 coup d’état. In July 2024, he wore presidential robes in July 2024.

To the Myanmarese, the obsession with the failed peace plan is beyond frustrating. They simply can’t help wondering why ASEAN leaders remain so delusional when it comes to this “consensus”, which has delivered nothing for Myanmar.

Since ASEAN adopted the 5PC in 2021, the junta has never honoured it. First and foremost, the consensus calls for the immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar. This step has never been implemented by the junta. Instead of ending military rule, the regime has rained bombs on its citizens and blocked essential supplies, including healthcare facilities, not to mention the continued atrocities like arson and massacres.

Over the past four years, more than 6,000 civilians have been killed by the military, including children, prompting the UN early this year to say that the junta had ramped up its violence against civilians to a level that was unprecedented in the four years since the generals launched their coup.

Rather than taking the junta’s total disregard for its plan as a blatant insult, ASEAN’s leadership doggedly clings to the 5PC as its “main reference to address the political crisis in Myanmar,” writes Hpone Myat in anti-establishment news portal The Irrawaddy. The news organization Irrawaddy, named after a yawning river in Myanmar, operates in exile in a neighbouring country for the safety and security of its staff.

Myanmar has become the most dangerous place for journalists after the recent sentencing of Than Htike Myint to five years in jail under Myanmar’s Counter Terrorism Law on 3 April. The military was holding 55 journalists in detention in June 2024, according to a report by the International Centre for Not-for-Profit Law (ICNL).

ASEAN’s continued faith in the 5PC in the face of the regime’s repeated intransigence is incomprehensible. In the light of this, the people of Myanmar are not sure whether to praise the bloc for its “consistency” or feel sorry for its naivety in dealing with the most ruthless regime on earth. Apart from the statement, remarks from the bloc’s current chair, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, were out of context and deliberately did not touch base, as the military junta is sinking into a quicksand.

In April, Anwar met with junta chief Hlaing in Bangkok and held virtual talks with Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) in exile. Malaysian Premier Anwar Ibrahim should not have appeased Min Aung Hlaing, believing in the illusions that the General would restore peace in the country, riddled with civil strife. After a call from the ASEAN meeting in April, Hlaing promised a ceasefire by the Myanmar armed forces, Tatmadaw, and the ethnic rebels. His junta even signed an MOU with some rebels, but that ceasefire was broken within days.

Hlaing’s air force continued to bomb civilian areas, causing immense suffering, pain, and agony for the villagers. At the summit, he (Anwar) described those talks as “significant”, saying both sides were open to engagement while highlighting Gen Hlaing’s supposed willingness to engage in peace efforts despite dubbing NUG as a “terrorist organization”.

In his opening remarks to the summit in Kuala Lumpur, Anwar said ASEAN had been able to “move the needle forward” in its efforts to achieve an eventual resolution to the Myanmar crisis, adding that the steps may be small and the bridge may be fragile, but “even a fragile bridge is better than a widening gulf.”

There is not even a “fragile bridge”, given his dishonesty and insincerity. His willingness to engage in peace talks is merely fictional and a hollow promise; Myanmar’s generals have historically never been known for sincerely engaging in peace efforts. They only engage or join dialogue as a pretext to ease external pressures. No such talks have ever borne fruit. Ask any ethnic armed resistance organization or opposition politician in Myanmar, and they will enlighten you as to how historically untrustworthy the previous generals and Min Aung Hlaing are, laments Hpone Myat.

ASEAN members have univocally urged the regime in Naypyidaw to extend a temporary ceasefire and engage in peace talks with its rivals at the summit, but did not spell out a timeline. Instead, the ASEAN urged that negotiations were needed and that Malaysia’s Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan would visit Naypyidaw in June regarding the mitigation of the crisis.

Furthermore, the regional leaders’ statement on an extended and expanded ceasefire in Myanmar can only be greeted with dismay. The leaders further called for “the sustained extension and nationwide expansion of the ceasefire in Myanmar,” but the reality is the ceasefire has never existed on the ground, as the junta has consistently violated the truce from the very start, wrote The Irrawaddy.

Instead of being unrealistic about the reality of present-day Myanmar, ASEAN should have adopted a serious resolution against the regime. Such moves would have put pressure on the junta by making it harder for it to survive, but also would have helped move the currently stalled resolution mechanism for Myanmar’s crisis forward. To make that happen, the bloc must first drop its empty rhetoric and take meaningful steps, concludes Hpone Myat.

Last week, the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) raised concern over the deteriorating human rights situation and economic collapse in Myanmar, with violent military operations killing more civilians last year than in any year since the 2021 coup. The military operations have sparked an unfolding humanitarian crisis.

“The country has endured an increasingly catastrophic human rights crisis marked by unabated violence and atrocities that have affected every single aspect of life,” said Volker Türk, the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights. Myanmar’s economy has lost USD 93.9 billion over the last four years, with inflation surging and the kyat (local currency) losing 40 per cent of its value.

Over half the population now lives below the poverty line, facing food insecurity and soaring prices, which has worsened since the March 28 earthquake, according to the U.N. Possibly, ASEAN has lost all moral position to pressurise the military junta, since Justice for Myanmar accused 54 companies in Southeast Asian countries ASEAN of supplying the regime with funds, jet fuel and technology.

“ASEAN’s failure to address corporate complicity has allowed the [regime] to intensify its brutal campaign of terror that has killed thousands of civilians and displaced millions with total impunity,” said Yadanar Maung, spokesperson of Justice for Myanmar, while calling on the leaders of ASEAN to end their support to the regime in Naypyidaw.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan on 03 June 2025 

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

India’s deport “illegal” Muslims into Bangladesh

SALEEM SAMAD

India is increasing diplomatic pressure on Bangladesh after the Pakistan-India conflict following the Pahalgam massacre of Hindu tourists.

It could not be ascertained whether the Pahalgam issue of unprovoked deportation has any connection with India’s Muslims targeted for speaking Bangla.

Incidentally, the Bangla language is widely spoken by 268 million people in the neighboring Indian states of West Bengal, Tripura, and parts of Assam. Bangla is the official state language of Bangladesh.

Indian government, showing no diplomatic niceties, has continued to push out so-called illegal Bangladeshi migrants living in India for decades. They were targeted for two crimes. They are Muslims and they speak Bangla.

Pushed by the Indian Border Security Force (BSF) through several porous borders with barbed-wire fences without any intimation to Bangladesh authorities or the Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) in the last couple of weeks.

Nearly 1,053 individuals have been forced into Bangladesh since 7 May, and those pushed in were allegedly tortured and physically abused in India, according to a statement from Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB).

During the journey, they faced physical abuse, religious tropes, and were denied food and water, which was learnt from the victims.

Bangladesh pointed its fingers towards the Indian BSF for border abuse. India did not clarify the unprovoked push-in, nor did Delhi bother to inform the Bangladesh Foreign Affairs Ministry.

Indian border guards had pushed out several Indian nationals who are Muslims in the bordering Indian states of West Bengal, Assam, and Tripura. Many of the victims pushed into Bangladesh were living in various places in India.

They have been targeted because they have Muslim names and speak Bangla, thus they are potential targets of being “illegal” migrants.

The Indian authorities did not hesitate to coerce Indian nationals to admit they were from Bangladesh. Also, admit that they have families and relatives in this country.

This cruel issue came to the limelight after a lawyer filed a petition in the Assam state capital, Guwahati’s High Court, that two brothers, Abu Bokkor Siddique and Akbar Ali, were forcibly pushed into Bangladesh by BSF along with 14 others.

The lawyer said they were detained on 25 May and refused to provide the location where the brothers were detained. He argued that they were born in Assam, and everybody in their locality knew them as school teachers.

He sought an order by the High Court to locate the whereabouts of the missing brothers.

An Indian human rights organization, Citizens for Justice and Peace, accused law enforcement agencies of randomly detaining people with Muslim names and who speak Bangla from places in Assam State.

The Assam High Court asked the State government to inform the court of the whereabouts of the two brothers.

It would be an embarrassment for BSF to rescue the brothers from Bangladesh when they will have to admit that they were mistakenly deported and want them to be returned to the Indian authorities.

However, BSF never admitted that they had unofficially deported hundreds of “Bangladesh nationals” detained from various States of India.

“BGB remains on high alert and has intensified surveillance and patrols in sensitive border areas. However, during recent engagements, the neighboring authorities denied any such push-ins—denials that contradict facts and constitute both a violation of human rights and glaring falsehoods,” the senior official of BGB said.

A Bangladeshi woman alleged that BSF tied empty plastic bottles to her and her three daughters to keep them afloat, then pushed them into the Feni river along the Tripura border in the dark of night, in a chilling account of abuse at the border, as reported in the Daily Star, an independent daily.

Selina Begum, 41, said she and her three daughters floated in the water all night before being rescued by locals in Khagrachhari on 22 May.

“My children had no idea what was happening. We floated all night. None of us knows how to swim,” she lamented.

The family members said they were working as laborers in Haryana when Indian authorities detained them.

After holding them overnight, the authorities drove them to the border, robbed them of their money and phones, and then pushed them into the river.

What happened to this family is not an isolated case. Several Bangladeshi nationals have alleged that Indian authorities tortured the deportees before pushing them across the border.

A 45-year-old woman said she had been living in India for 10 years. On 10 May, she and her husband were detained and taken to a Delhi police station along with 46 others.

“They kept us in custody for the next three days without food or water. Then they drove us to the border and pushed us across the fence around 3:00 am,” said the sobbing woman.

Maj Gen Mohammad Ashrafuzzaman Siddiqui, director general of BGB, told The Daily Star that despite repeated protests conveyed through flag meetings and diplomatic channels, incidents of push-ins by BSF and other Indian agencies have regrettably continued.

Siddiqui noted that many of those pushed back were Bangladeshi nationals who had lived in India for years. Some of their children were born in India and held Indian documents, which were forcibly taken from them, he said.

“We have consistently stressed that such unilateral actions violate established repatriation procedures and bilateral norms. BGB continues to urge transparent, verifiable processes to address these cases in line with international standards,” he added.

Amid such illegal deportations, the BGB has ramped up patrols and heightened vigilance along the borders.

Amid troubled news on 7 May, five United Nations Refugee Agency – UNHCR (India) registered Rohingya Muslim refugees (who fled genocide in Myanmar) were also pushed in through the border after being forcibly relocated.

The five Rohingyas registered with UNHCR in India were detained by a BGB on 7 May near the border in northern Bangladesh. The border guards recovered from them UNHCR registration cards issued by the refugee agency’s New Delhi office.

The members of a Rohingya family said they fled Myanmar two years ago and had been living in a camp in Assam. Rohingya are Muslims, but they do not speak Bangla.

Meanwhile, the Bangladesh Foreign Ministry has called on India to immediately stop the recent influx of people across the border, warning that such actions pose risks to security and undermine mutual understanding.

In a letter sent on 8 May, the Bangladesh Ministry of Foreign Affairs raised concern over people being pushed into the country and urged New Delhi to adhere to established repatriation mechanisms, citing people with knowledge of proceedings.

The foreign ministry’s letter cautioned that such actions could jeopardize security and incite negative public sentiment.

The deportation violates existing bilateral frameworks, including the 1975 India-Bangladesh joint guidelines for border authorities, the 2011 Coordinated Border Management Plan (CBMP), and decisions made during director general-level talks between the BGB and BSF, according to a foreign ministry official.

The letter reiterated that Bangladesh would only accept individuals confirmed as Bangladeshi citizens and repatriated through official channels. Any deviation from this would harm mutual understanding between the two countries.

It also argued that any Rohingya individuals found within Indian territory should be returned to Myanmar, their country of origin, not to Bangladesh.

“For the sake of peace and stability along the Bangladesh–India border, such push-ins are unacceptable and should be avoided,” the letter said.

Dhaka further called for enhanced coordination between the Bangladesh and Indian border forces to prevent the recurrence of such incidents.

India has not responded to the letter of concern to Bangladesh about the forcible deportation of Bangla-speaking Muslims.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan on 31 May 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Prof Yunus did not abandon the ship in turbulent sea

SALEEM SAMAD

The Godi media (“embedded journalism” favoring the government) in India did not hesitate to claim that there was a power struggle after a faceoff with the COAS (Chief of Army Staff) over holding a general election by the end of this year.

Responsible Indian TV news channels based in New Delhi broke the news that Prof Muhammad Yunus had fired three chiefs—the army, navy, and air force. The power struggle backfired, and the military chief asked Yunus to step down. He urgently sought political support from the student leaders, who brought the Nobel peace laureate to power in early August last year.

Social media was abuzz with speculation that Prof Yunus had hinted at resigning when political parties negated the reforms initiated by his government and street protests on irrational demands, which clogged the capital’s main arteries, causing immense suffering to the commuters and access to healthcare.

His desire to resign was made public after BBC Bangla news portal quoted Nahid Islam, Convener of the fiery student-led National Citizens Party (NCP), as saying that the frontline student leaders were able to convince Yunus not to step down when the nation was in transition to democracy.

The current situation started to develop as political chaos and has been escalating, driven by protests, harsh rhetoric at rallies, and social media narratives.

A highly placed source said Prof Yunus remains firm on his position that he would step down if the current tension does not ease.

The chief adviser, Yunus, insists on having full authority to make decisions – authority he says was assured when he took charge, according to a highly placed source.

He has also questioned the emergence of obstacles, pointing out that his government had initially received a clear mandate to pursue reforms, try Awami League leaders, and hold the general election.

He discussed matters related to frequent road blockades over myriad demands, reforms, and other issues.

Meanwhile, Army Chief (COAS), General Waker-Uz-Zaman, said the election should take place by December this year. According to a source present at the officers’ address, “Bangladesh needs political stability. This is only possible through an elected government, and not by unelected decision-makers. ”

COAS wants its 27,000 troops deployed in 57 districts to return to the barracks after the parliamentary elections. The troops were visible in cities and towns to quell public lawlessness in the absence of police enforcement, since Yunus has been made Chief Adviser.

The Interim Government of Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus took the reins of the country of 172 million after Sheikh Hasina’s autocratic regime collapsed after the bloody street protests in July-August last year. She fled to Delhi and has been living in exile in India.

Hasina, an iron lady, ruled the country for 15 years with repressive laws, she introduced. Not to speak of opposition, critics, and dissidents, even the journalists and independent media were not spared. They were punished, harassed, intimidated, and imprisoned with repressive cybersecurity laws.

In a series of crackdowns, she kept tens of thousands of opposition members in prisons for months and years, accusing them of terrorism to ensure that they did not interfere with the governing of her regime.

Yunus’s resignation will plunge the nation into a political abyss and turmoil. It will be difficult to bring the country back on track. There is no alternative to Prof Yunus, who is a democrat, moderate, liberal, and secular, said Dr Rakib Al Hasan, head of a think-tank.

Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has been demanding that the Interim Government announce an election road map. The party made lots of noise in street rallies that the election should be held by next December.

Meanwhile, Adviser Syeda Rizwana Hasan said the present government is firm on carrying out three responsibilities. The election is the only agenda. She reiterated her government’s desire that the next general election will be held between this December and next June in 2026.

Second is reforms in the judiciary, the election commission, the civil administration, the police, the education sector, women’s equity issues, and to promote anti-corruption practices.

The third was the trial of those Awami League leaders (including former ministers, members of parliament, and senior politicians for crimes against humanity and corruption), police, and bureaucrats who had been accomplices to the autocratic regime.

When journalists asked Rizwana whether they were under any pressure, she said, “For us, the only pressure is whether we can perform [these duties].

Political observers say that the gap between Yunus and the mainstream political parties on the agreement of the reforms has widened. The divide is growing between the regime and the BNP, the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami, and the student-led NCP.

However, the parties seem cautious in making official statements. Although individual politicians have made various statements, the parties have not yet made any statement.

Political analysts believe that Professor Yunus has two openings. He can either quit or decide to hold elections that would win the confidence of the parties and stakeholders. There are also various kinds of discussions with different parties, including the Jamaat and the NCP. Jamaat’s Ameer Shafiqur Rahman on social media suggested calling an all-party meeting to resolve the stalemate.

The Nobel laureate envisioned that reforms should be the first priority of his government, before holding the elections. The impediment has been the politicians. The political leaders argue that reforms should be formulated in the parliament, not the unelected government.

It’s true that the Interim Government does not have the legitimacy to adopt the reforms and cannot yoke the political parties to agree to it.

Sources said that Yunus is frustrated with the traditional political parties that have been responsible for failing the country for decades. None of the political parties, despite repeated political commitment in more than three decades, has succeeded in initiating any reforms in the crucial sectors.

The politicians, for their interest, hate to reform the judiciary, civil administration, police administration, anti-corruption, and establish an independent election commission.

These reforms would take a heavy toll on their political career. Earlier, the politicians had politicized the judiciary, police, and civil administration in their favor, especially in their constituencies.

Writer and political analyst Mohiuddin Ahmad told BBC Bangla news portal, “BNP, Jamaat, and NCP, these three parties now have an overarching influence on the Interim Government. Tensions have increased between the three parties. As a result, there is a division in politics.”

At the same time, Mohiuddin Ahmad said that the chief advisor lacks the skills to handle the political situation. Overall, the government is not able to function and implement decisions. This stalemate has deepened the crisis, and the government is facing challenges. Ahmed said that if the government now heads towards elections, the parties, including the BNP, will increase cooperation with the government. He believes that it is a way out of the crisis.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, on 29 May 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Nepal: ‘Eyes of Buddha’ watch over India’s evil

SALEEM SAMAD

The tourist season for Indians begins in the month of June. To beat the summer heat, they visit Nepal, despite the monsoon season, they prefer religious tourism. For tens of thousands of Indians pouring into Nepal for pilgrimage pleasure and extreme sports, the nights are very cool, which they enjoy the most.

Day after day, the Indians go from one mountain to another mountain, from one Hindu temple to another Buddhist pagoda, offering flowers and incense for spiritual gain and well-being of their families and businesses.

While in the capital Kathmandu, picturesque Pokhara, Nagarkot and elsewhere, most of the hotels, restaurants, rental vehicles, taxis and tour operators often refuse to accept Indian currency Rupees (IRs).

They explain that Indian Rupees is no more an official exchangeable currency, which is not well understood. Well, tourist can pay bills to hotels, taxis, and restaurant in US Dollars, Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound and Chinese Yuan. However, the money changer or money exchange kiosks accept IRs at the rate of 1.5 per cent exchange rate in Nepali Rupees (NRs).

India and Nepal has century old love and hate relationship. Nepal a landlocked country in the Himalayan range is interdependent on India for imports.

Recently, despite the scornful eye of India, Nepal dared to open up and neighboring China made inroads into once a Hindu Kingdom.

In recent times, Nepal has gradually moved from India’s influence towards its arch rival China. The new ‘all weather friend’ has made significant investments in infrastructure in terms of aid and loans.

China’s involvement in Nepal’s infrastructure projects through its controversial Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) poses a threat to Nepal’s role as a buffer state between India and China.

India’s engagement with Nepal is limited to defense cooperation, disaster management, infrastructure development, water resources cooperation, education and cultural exchange, which a Kathmandu based trekking operator Prabesh Banjara said.

However, the challenge with India is with the Peace and Friendship Treaty signed in 1950, which guaranteed Nepali citizens free movement across the border and employment opportunities in India. However, many perceive this treaty as unequal and imposed by India.

The porous and poorly guarded border between India and Nepal is a security threat. It is known that the border allows the underworld mafia to exploit it for smuggling weapons, ammunition, trained members and fake currency, which poses a significant security risk to India.

Nepal also has territorial disputes with India. Kalapani at the India-Nepal boundary remains a disputed territory and unresolved. Nepal claims these territories as part of its own, while India argues that it has inherited them from British colonialists.

The trust between India and Nepal has weakened over time due to India’s slow implementation of projects. Some Nepalese ethnic groups feel that India interferes too much in Nepal’s politics and undermines their political independence, leading to a dislike for India.

The Nepalis love to hate India. It seems that the Nepalese, which cuts across all sections of the people, has not forgotten the nightmarish “economic blockade” by India in March 1989.

After enduring more than a year of extreme hardship, Nepal has learnt a bitter lesson: the rest of the world wouldn’t come to their aid when they were bullied by India. The blockade inadvertently hastened the restoration of democracy, but it did not nuke India-Nepal relations any less rocky. India did not extend landlocked Nepali trade and transit treaties, wrote CK Lal in a prestigious newspaper, the Nepal Times.

Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy writes in Observer Research Foundation (ORF), a Delhi based think-tank and the neighborhood has undergone shifts since the beginning of the millennium. By the end of the decade, the democratic transition in Bhutan, political instability in Nepal, the Maldives, and Bangladesh, and civil war in Sri Lanka had posed dilemmas and new challenges to India.

Narendra Modi’s government in India offered an opportunity for an emerging China to make inroads in these countries through economic assistance and investments. Most of these projects were later institutionalized and categorized under Beijing’s flagship BRI.

ORF writes that the policy balances coercion and inducement, although the former (India) have become more subtle in the years since the policy was initiated.

While earlier coercion measures included alleged blockades in Nepal and military posturing against the Maldives, the focus has now shifted mainly towards granting and denying access to Indian markets and assistance. There is a growing understanding that the use of coercive measures and becoming involved in neighbors’ domestic politics would only drive the South Asian neighbors away from India and further come closer to China.

India believes that interdependencies will counter Chinese influence in the region, strengthen its security, and further its interests.

ORF study also highlights crucial challenges and missed opportunities in India’s policy. First, India has not been able to counter its negative perceptions, as it is still viewed as an interventionist power.

Second, India’s security-oriented outlook for the region, including offering alternatives to China and pushing back against China through diplomatic means, has continued to foster suspicion towards India’s intentions.

It is clear from his Divyopdesh (Divine Sayings) that Nepal’s great unifier, a Gurka King Prithvi Narayan Shah, didn’t quite trust the big neighbor to the south.

At the level of the nation-state, Nepal has a litany of injustices it has suffered from high-handed Indians, wrote CK Lal.

There is a strong impression in Nepali minds that they have got the short end of the stick in almost every border river project-from Kosi and Gandaki in the past to Pancheshwar in recent times.

All Himalayan rivers originating in Nepal drain into the Ganges. When Indians try to tame some of these rivers, the trouble is transferred upstream, and submergence takes place in Nepali territory, the Laxmanpur Barrage being the most recent example.

A hotelier in Pokhara said, the Chinese invested multimillion dollars in building a new Pokhara International Airport, which has yet to begin operation.

India has threatens that any international airlines which has plans flights to picturesque Pokhara would not be given authorization for over-flights to the airport. “It is pity that India envy’s that the airport was built by her arch enemy China,” said the hotelier.

A private airline in Bangladesh requested Nepal to introduce flights to Kathmandu and Pokhara. Kathmandu’s Triubhuvan International Airport is crowded by scores of international flights and unable to provide a slot for the Bangladeshi airlines.

Pokhara, the second destination, has been blocked by Indian’s arrogant policy. The flight will have to make fly Indian air space to reach Pokhara. Beleaguered Pokhara International Airport is only serving to domestic flights to Nepali private airlines. What a waste of a mega infrastructure investment!

Politicians like to repeat that the love-hate relationship between Nepal and India is “age-old” and has stood the test of time, says CK Lal.

In a piece of advice, he said the Indian government should engage constructively with the new leadership in Nepal and work towards enhancing cooperation in various areas. This will benefit India’s long-term interests.

The Eye of Buddha or “Wisdom Eye” in the heart of Kathmandu represents the enlightened perception of reality and the nature of existence. The eyes are traditionally watching towards the south – India. The eyes protect Nepal from the evil.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, on 24 May 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Which side will Bangladesh opt for in the India-Pakistan conflict?

SALEEM SAMAD

After the air strikes in Kashmir, when a full-scale conflict erupts between Pakistan and India, what should be the official stance of Bangladesh?

In 53 years, Bangladesh has not waged any war with its neighbors, Myanmar and India. Other South Asian countries are hundreds of kilometers away. Therefore, there has not been any issue with these countries.

No denying, Bangladesh-India, Bangladesh-Myanmar had engaged in border skirmishes and were quickly resolved at the border guards force level.

Bangladesh’s military is not a fighting force. Accordingly they are trained as a defensive force. The military is being prepared for peace-keeping missions under the United Nations deployment in countries troubled by militancy and rogue warlords.

Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan are significant troop contributors to UN peacekeeping missions, with Bangladesh and India consistently ranking among the top three globally.

Bangladesh has a strong history of contributing to UN peacekeeping, with 6,772 peacekeepers deployed in 58 missions across 40 countries since 1988. They are currently among the top troop-contributing nations.

A few days ago, The Economic Times, an Indian publication picked up an irrelevant content, from a social media post by a former Bangladesh military officer and close aide of Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus has suggested that Dhaka should collaborate with China to occupy India’s northeastern states if it attacks Pakistan in response to the Pahalgam terror attack.

Moments later, the Interim Government distanced itself from Major General (R) ALM Fazlur Rahman's remarks on his social media account.

Distancing itself from the former army officer’s remarks, Bangladesh’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a media release said, “The comments do not reflect the position or policies of the government of Bangladesh, and as such, the government neither endorses nor supports such rhetoric in any form or manner.”

By the way, China has never fought a war except for border clashes with 14 neighbors that it shares a border with, including India. China has border disputes with Nepal, Bhutan and Pakistan in South Asia.

Abhijeet Sen wrote for Godi Media, india.com, that in the case of a conflict, it will be interesting to see how the neighboring countries of India, such as China, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives, Bangladesh, and Bhutan, will react and choose sides.

Sen believe that Bangladesh would fish in murky water during the Indo-Pak conflict and will take an opportunity to invade North East India with the military support of mighty China. He is forgetting that the Seven Sisters have recently ended their decades-old separatist insurgency by several ethnic groups.

Bangladesh is literally a homogeneous nation having language nationalism as a binding factor. They possess a unique culture, tradition, heritage, and history. Most importantly, the majoritarian are Muslims.

The North East Indian states have hundreds of languages spoken by ethnic communities and are divided among Hindu, Christian, Buddhist, animist identity and a negligible Muslim population.

Bangladesh military adventurism in the Northeast would be suicidal in an unknown hill-forest terrain, which would jeopardize the geopolitical landscape of the region.

Nevertheless, the former ethnic combatants trained in military-grade weapons would violently resist the occupation.

The nation has witnessed brutality during the nine-month independence war in 1971. An estimated 3 million were martyred, one million became war refugees, 500,000 were victims of rape as weapon of war and another 3.5 million were internally displaced.

The social media are flooded with nationalistic rhetoric, which goes against the spirit of the liberation war of 1971. The post reminds the audience that Bangladesh is a pacifist nation and pursues a ‘no war’ policy.

Afroja Shoma, a teacher of Media Studies at a private university, posted on Facebook: We are tomatoes, not India/Pakistan lovers or haters.

Political activist Hasnat Quaiyum, a member of Rastra Songskar Andolon (Movement for Reforms of the Country), urged that Bangladesh, under any excuse, should get involved in the Indo-Pak war.

Nevertheless, the Bangladesh constitution outlines specific provisions regarding war and peace, emphasizing the renunciation of force in international relations and prioritizing peaceful resolutions.

Article 63 states that war cannot be declared or the country participate in war without the Parliament’s assent. Furthermore, Article 25 mandates that the state’s foreign policy be based on the principles of renouncing force, supporting the right of self-determination, and upholding the right of oppressed people to struggle against imperialism and colonialism.

However, Article 25 also supports international solidarity with oppressed peoples in their struggle against imperialism and colonialism.

Finally, the constitution implicitly prioritizes peaceful resolutions to conflicts, as evidenced by the renunciation of force and the emphasis on international solidarity and support for self-determination.

Bangladesh must prepare carefully for all possible scenarios while remaining steadfastly neutral and committed to peace. At the same time, it is in the collective interest of the region that India and Pakistan recognize the futility of further escalation and work toward resolving their differences through peaceful means. The future prosperity and stability of South Asia depend on it, writes Mir Mostafizur Rahaman in the Financial Express, published from Dhaka.

Bangladesh authorities, before speaking their mind, are feeling the pinch in their shoes. The Dhaka stock market witnessed a major decline this morning (7 May) due to the India-Pakistan war. The main index fell by more than 70 points in the first 10 minutes of trading. The index fell by more than 50 points in the first five minutes. The downward trend continues.

Ramisa Rob is the Geopolitical Insights Editor at The Daily Star, writes: Needless to say, both nations must urgently engage in de-escalation. But the political reality of de-escalating the current volatile situation between India and Pakistan is much easier said than done. There’s little precedent that the nuclear-armed nations would spike a hot war; however, the short- and long-term stability in South Asia after the deadly Pahalgam attacks appears bleaker than ever before.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, on 8 May 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Bangladesh: ‘humanitarian corridor’ for Myanmarese

SALEEM SAMAD

Political parties from different shades of right, left, centrists, and Islamists are disturbed to hear from the media that Bangladesh has agreed to establish a ‘humanitarian corridor’ for the hungry people of war-torn Rakhine State in Myanmar.

The media in the country, quoting Foreign Affairs Ministry officials, have published sketchy information on the so-called humanitarian corridor. The Interim Government has yet to spell out details of the plan, which has raised suspicion which is now mixed with conspiracy theories.

The United Nations wants to dispatch food, medical supplies and other essentials to Rakhine, where silent famine persists.

The United Nation Development Program (UNDP) in an assessment report released in November 2024, painted a grave situation in the Rakhine state. It said the people caught in the civil war are experiencing a near famine and proposed that immediate food, medical aid, agriculture inputs, construction materials and other essentials need urgent attention from the international aid agencies.

UNDP report stated that Rakhine is on the verge of an unprecedented disaster due to a combination of interlinked issues. Restrictions on goods entering Rakhine, both internationally and domestically, have led to a severe lack of income, hyperinflation, and significantly reduced domestic food production. Essential services and a social safety net are almost non-existent, leaving an already vulnerable population at risk of collapse in the coming months.

The report shows that Rakhine’s economy has become almost dysfunctional. Critical sectors such as trade, agriculture, and construction have halted. Export-oriented, agro-based livelihoods are disappearing as markets become inaccessible due to blockades by the junta.

UN warns that Rakhine faces the imminent threat of acute famine. The worst victims of a lack of food are millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs), including Rohingyas.

In the last couple of months, a fresh influx of Rohingya Muslims in Bangladesh has added to the already 1.2 million languishing in overcrowded camps in Cox’s Bazar, in Southeast Bangladesh.

However, there is no specific assessment of the number of IDPs in Rakhine, as they spread over the forests, hills and banks on the riverfront. The IDPs do not live in permanent shelters. They live in makeshift camps. The worst victims of internal displacement are children, women and elderly persons. They are suffering from severe malnutrition, communicable diseases and the absence of healthcare.

UN wants to address an unfolding humanitarian crisis in Rakhine and said it is only Bangladesh, its immediate neighbor separated by a kilometer-wide Naf River can save the hungry people, coupled with the absence of healthcare that has jeopardized their lives and living.

UN officials believe that Bangladesh is a trusted country which could extend help in facilitating supplies of food, medical and other essentials.

The United States Army Pacific (USARPAC) stationed in Hawaii is supposed to provide logistics and security for the IDPs in Rakhine state.

It is reported that the US military will be deployed for the logistics at the corridor at Silkhali, a small river port. The site has been secured by the Bangladesh Army, a no go for the civilians. The army would only facilitate logistics for the UN operation, said a senior government official, who is privy to the corridor.

UNDP report says that internal rice production is declining due to a lack of supplies of seeds, fertilizers, severe weather, and a rise in the number of IDPs that could no longer engage in agricultural production after the civil war erupted and repeatedly relocating to safer places has further exacerbated the miseries.

The UN estimates that with the near-total halt of trade, over 2 million people are at risk of starvation.

When UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited the camps and had Iftar (food for breaking the fast in Ramadan) with the refugees, he told the Bangladesh authorities that a “humanitarian corridor” needed to be opened to reach the hungry people.

Before leaving Dhaka after a visit to Cox’s Bazar Rohingya camps, in mid-March, Guterres said he had discussed with Bangladesh authorities the possibilities of a humanitarian corridor would connect inside Myanmar as a means of creating conditions for Rohingya repatriation to Rakhine with the rebel Arakan Army which has captured except for few places resisted by the Myanmar military troops.

He said it would, however, require the “authorization and the cooperation of the parties to the conflict” in Rakhine, where the Myanmar junta is fighting the rebels, which has further caused frustration, pain and agony for the IDPs.

On the other hand, Tarique Rahman, the supremo of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), said from his London office, cautioned the Interim Government that such a decision can only be taken by the parliament.

Presently, there is no parliament, and the upcoming election is scheduled for the first half of 2026, after the Ramadan and Eid holidays. Therefore, the hungry people in Rakhine will have to wait for at least a year until an election is held in Bangladesh and a parliament begins to function.

Meanwhile, top US officials visiting Bangladesh a fortnight ago held secret meetings in Bangladesh with hybrid representatives of the United League of Arakan (ULA), a political wing of AA and Chin National Front (CNF), the political umbrella of Chin National Army.

The Chin National Army is a Chin ethnic armed organization in Myanmar. The armed wing of the Chin National Front (CNF) was founded on 20 March 1988.

The CNA and ULA are members of the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), a coalition of opposition groups that aims to establish a federal system in Myanmar or achieve levels of autonomy and peace among the country’s various ethnic minorities.

Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, under house arrest and accused of sedition, is incommunicado. The former senior leaders of her party who could evade arrest and have gone underground safely are earnestly working with the ethnic rebels under the banner of UNFC.

Bangladesh Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain told journalists that the Interim Government agreed in principle with the UN proposal on the corridor, but certain conditions must be met for its implementation.

A day later, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir slammed the interim government for making such a move without consulting the political parties.

“An interim government has no authority to make such a policy decision,” reads the statement by President Mohammad Shah Alam and General Secretary Ruhin Hossain Prince of the Communist Party of Bangladesh (CPB).

The CPB questioned that the West’s sudden interest in the Rohingya issue was “part of a broader imperialist conspiracy”.

The Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami’s Ameer (chief), Shafiqur Rahman said the humanitarian corridor requests that the government make the issue transparent to the nation because it might involve many security issues.

Radical Islamic platform Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh’s fiery leader, Secretary General Mamunul Haque, opposing the move, said, “Imperialist powers are trying to implement their agenda by using Bangladesh. As a patriotic force, Hefazat-e-Islam does not support this in any way.”

In response to the concerns of the political party leaders regarding the humanitarian corridor being premature, said Shafiqul Alam, press secretary to the Chief Advisor Prof Muhammad Yunus.

To pacify the political parties, the government quickly said nothing had been finalized regarding the corridor. But said that the government would be willing to provide logistic support should there be UN-led humanitarian support to the state of Rakhine, said Khalilur Rahman, the National Security Adviser in charge of Rohingya issues, told French news agency AFP.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 4 May 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad