What is the ‘golden ring’ axis?

China continues to consolidate power and strengthen ties with Asian countries

SALEEM SAMAD

In a geopolitical response to the decline of the Western influence in South Asia and West Asia, China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey envisage a “golden ring” axis to expand their hegemony on South and West Asia.

The vision of the golden ring of China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey was first disclosed recently by Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan.

The effort to forge an alliance surfaced after Afghanistan refused to be drawn into the golden ring axis. Kabul does not trust their immediate neighbour Pakistan and the nation has not forgotten the ruthless Russian occupation installing a puppet regime.

Afghanistan squarely blames Pakistan’s elite security agency in Rawalpindi GHQ for aiding and abetting ruthless Taliban militia.

Kabul is equally not comfortable with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The assassinated General Qasem Soleimani of the elite Al Quds military had recruited Afghan Shia militia to fight the Kabul government, which Iran believes is a stooge of the Americans, and thus an enemy of Islam.

Contrary to US perceptions, the Kremlin realizes the importance of Pakistan for a peaceful settlement of the Afghan conflict. Unfortunately, Afghanistan seemed to have disappeared from the White House radar in the run-up to the US Presidential Elections.

The US author Robert D Kaplan wrote in his book, The Revenge of Geography: “Pressure on land can help the United States thwart China at Sea.” But post exit from Afghanistan, America will lose that advantage since its “pivot Asia” will be largely reduced to the high seas.

Well, the US has been an undisputed global power since the collapse of the Soviet Union. China has risen from Mao’s anti-capitalist policy into a strong rival to the US. The Trump administration’s aggressive foreign policy is pushing away China and pulling closer allies who were never their loyal partners in economic development.

China has strengthened its ties with countries that were ignored or bullied by America. Therefore, the emergence of a new golden ring of China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey is becoming a reality.

China has fathomless pockets to fund economic development, and forging ties with Iran, Pakistan, Russia, and Turkey to join the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

In 2019, Iran formally joined China’s “One Belt One Road” initiative. Tehran announced that it has partnered with Beijing for the strategist Chabahar port in Iran. It will make Iran an integral part of the BRI, linking China with Europe via Turkey.

Turkey, despite being an ally of the NATO military alliance, has drifted from Washington in recent times.

Ankara’s occupation of Northern Cyprus for more than four decades, military assistance to rogue rebel General Haftar opposed to UN-backed Libyan government, intermittent military strikes against Kurds -- the bravehearts who fought the dreaded Islamic State marauder -- has angered not only the US, but also European nations.

America could have said “checkmate” when US aircraft carriers and hosts of battleships were joined by naval forces of Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia to take strategic control of the South China Sea, where China wanted its hegemony of the disputed sea.

Meanwhile, after the Galwan Valley face-off between India and China, India has readied its naval fleet in the Indian Ocean, rallying with US frigates from the Seventh Fleet, a tacit threat to China maritime for oil shipment from Iran. The manipulative geopolitical strategy in Asia may yield dividends which could be measured with a yardstick. Eventually, it needs to be understood about who will reap the maximum gain from the golden ring axis.

First published in the Dhaka Tribune, 27 July 2020

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist, media rights defender, recipient of Ashoka Fellowship, and Hellman-Hammett Award. He can be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com. Twitter @saleemsamad

Sino-India ‘war-cry’ at the roof of the world

Indian PM Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping Photo/REUTERS

SALEEM SAMAD
No bullets were fired! So far, Chinese and Indian troops exchanged brickbats and hurled bullies.

Normally, India and Pakistan skirmishes trade thunderous artillery fire and weapons drawn on each other -- often inflicting civilian casualties.

Presently, both China and India claim transgression of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) over Galwan Valley in Ladakh. The valley was once a flashpoint in the 1962 Sino-India war.

An earlier Sino-India border dispute in 2017 or Doklam stand-off refers to the faceoff between the Indian Armed Forces and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) over the construction of a road in Doklam near a tri-junction border area, known as Donglang, or Donglang Caochang (meaning Donglang pasture or grazing field), in Chinese.

After a month of the stand-off, both India and China withdrew their troops from the Doklam theatre.

As the Galwan valley stand-off continues, China is increasingly taking a more belligerent position. Of the flashpoints, three were in Ladakh in the Kashmir region, while another is at Nuka La Pass, which connects India’s north-eastern state of Sikkim with China’s Tibet.

The question is: Why are the two Asian giants hurtling down the path of war at the Himalayan frontiers?

When the military of the two countries are in a face-off, Xi Jinping tells PLA to “prepare for war” to thwart the coronavirus impact on national security.

The winter in Galwan Valley is brutal. Even during clear weather at any time of the year, border patrol at 15,000 feet above sea level is treacherous.

There are several theories to why this border tension exists when the world is trying to control the coronavirus that came from China.

First, China allegedly changed its claims over the Galwan Valley thrice. Now, Beijing says that the entire Galwan Valley belongs to China.

“India in recent days has illegally constructed defense facilities across the border into Chinese territory in the Galwan Valley region, leaving Chinese border defense troops no other option but making necessary moves in response, and mounting the risk of escalating stand-offs and conflicts between the two sides,” blames China’s official newspaper the Global Times.

Second, China is annoyed after the Indian authority’s plan for a huge economic zone in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, offering attractive packages to shift manufacturing plants from China, when companies are worried about the second wave of Covid-19 sweeping the country.

The media report in Indian newspapers has visibly irritated the bigwigs of the Chinese Communist Party, with the strategic ambition of India to replace China’s role in the global industrial chain only expanding. Thus, the Global Times editorial has expressed its rage against the “Make in India” campaign to become the world’s next destination for brand factories.

Third, Narendra Modi’s administration last year revoked the autonomous status of the part of Kashmir under its control. Indian-administered Kashmir is the only Muslim-majority region in India and has continued to be claimed by China’s staunch ally, Pakistan.

While India and Pakistan have fought wars over Kashmir, China has always stood beside Pakistan and supported Kashmir nationals’ right to self-determination.

The fourth sore point between China and India is Tibet, a region that China says is its rightful territory. Tibet’s spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, and the so-called Tibetan government in exile, have its headquarters in Himachal, India.

Fifth, ignoring the Sino-India relations, Narendra Modi nominated two BJP lawmakers to 'attend' swearing-in of Taiwan virtual celebration of president Tsai Ing-wen swearing-in ceremony.

Meanwhile, China is in no mood for dialogue. Beijing is blaming India, and China’s newspaper the Global Times has been publishing aggressive and anti-India rhetoric. It claims that India has “illegally constructed defense facilities across the border into Chinese territory.”

“Not since 1975 has a bullet been fired across the shared border. As a result, the theory that Sino-Indian clashes are flashes in the pan and unlikely to lead to more extensive fighting has become a widely held consensus,” Professors Sumit Ganguly and Manjeet S Pardesi wrote in the Foreign Policy.

First published in the Dhaka Tribune, 1 June 2020

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist, media rights defender, and recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. His twitter is @saleemsamad and can be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com

Asian countries flatten coronavirus curve

Photo: Reuters

Asian models that actually combated Covid-19
SALEEM SAMAD

Globally nations are convinced that washing hands with soap, wearing a mask, maintaining social distance, and staying home are prime health safety tips to fight the coronavirus pandemic.

The scenario in Taiwan, however, is similar but strikingly different from most countries in Asia, Africa, America, and Europe struggling to combat the Covid-19 crisis.

In a new coronavirus twist, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, and Hong Kong are examples of containment that have been hailed for using those lessons learned from combating the new coronavirus, officially Covid-19 and a relative of SARS.

By the time the virus began to spill over China’s frontiers in January, many health think-tanks believed that territories having proximity would take the major brunt for a large-scale outbreak.

Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong territories are closely interconnected with mainland China, unilaterally imposed travel restrictions on nationals returning from China, contravening the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) insistence that a travel ban was not necessary.

The precaution, nevertheless, came at a significant economic cost to these international hubs, which all rely on mainland China as their biggest trading partner and source of tourists too.

Amid these grim trends, South Korea has emerged as a sign of hope and a model to imitate as coronavirus cases have dropped sharply to a single digit. 

The South Korean president hoped that containment progress gave hope that the coronavirus outbreak is “surmountable” in other parts of the world.

Well, after after the deadly SARS epidemic in 2003, Taiwan established a Central Command Centre for Epidemics. The country had introduced national drills in educational institutions, government establishments, and factories for preparedness on bio-safety.

The Command Centre has quickly compiled a list of 124 “action items,” including border controls, school and work policies, public communication plans and resource assessments of hospitals, according to an article in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

The 210 countries typically struggling with the coronavirus pandemic have gambled on a containment strategy. It has socked hundreds of countries that have imposed strict shutdowns and stay-home policies to hear that Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Vietnam residents venture outside only by necessity while national emergency remains enforced.

Unlike wealthier Asian neigbours, Vietnam does not have the capabilities to conduct mass testing, but surprisingly the country has zero fatalities with no new cases in the last several days. The status of coronavirus cases was 268 and 202 recovered as of April 20.

Hong Kong, an autonomous state of China promptly imposed border control from early February and made quarantine in hospitals mandatory for those returning from mainland China.

Hong Kong’s population of 7.5 million had had just 1,026 confirmed cases of Covid-19 infection, recovery of 602 and four deaths as of April 20, according to a new study published in the health journal Lancet.

A study by Harvard University’s Centre for Communicable Disease Dynamics estimates Singapore detected almost three times more cases than the global average due to its strong disease surveillance and fastidious contact tracing.

In Singapore, amid the coronavirus outbreak, quarantine, and isolation protocols were strictly enforced. 

The government has deployed plainclothes police officers to track persons in quarantine and used government-issued mobile phones to keep tabs on them.

The challenges remain for Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore of a growing number of recovered Covid-19 patients relapsing especially in South Korea, raising fresh concerns among scientists and health authorities after the countries successfully flattened the curve. 

First published in The Dhaka Tribune on 20 April 2020

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist, media rights defender, recipient of Ashoka Fellow (USA) and Hellman-Hammett Award. Twitter @saleemsamad; he can be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com