Japan-Bangladesh partnership yielding new Indo-Pacific doctrine to counter China

Bangladesh’s Prime Minister met her Japanese counterpart Kishida Fumio in Tokyo

SALEEM SAMAD

Last week Bangladesh’s Prime Minister met her Japanese counterpart Kishida Fumio in Tokyo, which political observers described as a much-awaited crucial strategic partnership.

Before embarking upon a three-nation tour of Japan, the United States and Britain, Hasina buried months of speculation on the strategic alliance on 26 April.

Bangladesh unveiled its “Indo-Pacific Outlook (IPO)”, and these three nations have crucial roles in pursuing the policy of an open and free Indo-Pacific.

The Indo-Pacific Outlook is based on the dictum “Friendship towards all, malice towards none.” Whether this dictum would be enough to address the Chinese concern about committing to the objectives of rules-based order and a free and open Indo-Pacific has to be seen in the coming days, remarks veteran columnist Kamal Ahmed.

Bangladesh took a deep breath to develop a strategic partnership with Japan against Chinese hegemony through the implementation of an ambitious Road and Belt Initiative (BRI) in the region.

In fact, the two countries have achieved significant progress in bilateral relations based on the “Comprehensive Partnership” established in 2014, the joint Bangladesh-Japan statement said.

The Japanese initiative envisages replacing BRI with the Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt (BIG-B).

Japan was one of the very few countries that extended foreign aid for reconstructing war-torn Bangladesh during the post-independence era. Since then, Japan has become Bangladesh’s single largest bilateral donor.

The ‘Land of the Rising Sun’ has been an all-weather economic and development partner of Bangladesh before China’s inroads into the country.

In the fiscal year 2020-2021, Japan provided more aid to Bangladesh than any other country, amounting to $2.63 billion. Since Bangladesh’s independence, Japan has provided a total of $24.72 billion, almost evenly split between grants and loans, writes Hussain Shazzad in The Diplomat.

Japan’s financial assistance to Bangladesh has been proven mutually beneficial for both countries rather than being exploitative, unlike a few development partners that have been blamed for encouraging corruption in getting approval for mega projects.

Columnist Ahmed writes in The Daily Star: The United States, which originally conceived and floated the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS), has been urging Bangladesh for the last few years to join them in implementing the IPS. Though Bangladesh doesn’t use the term strategy or IPS, the vision it lays out is remarkably similar to the IPS.

Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida also outlined a newly released plan for a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP),” which will strengthen Japan’s efforts to further promote the FOIP vision, with the four pillars of cooperation: “Principles for Peace and Rules for Prosperity”; “Addressing Challenges in an Indo-Pacific Way”; “Multi-layered Connectivity” and “Extending Efforts for Security and Safe Use of the Sea to the Air” and hopes that Bangladesh will also agree with the strategy.

Hasina reiterated Bangladesh’s principled position on a “free, open, inclusive, peaceful and secure Indo-Pacific based on international law and shared prosperity for all” and she believes the international community and global commons will contribute to the development of (the) blue economy in the exploitation of the use of the sea.

The joint statement gave a green signal, which was a blessing for India and G-7 members including the United States, who are partners of the much-talked-about QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue).

Quad was first mooted by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2007 and aims to ensure and support a “free, open and prosperous” Indo-Pacific region is a strategic security dialogue between Australia, India, Japan and the United States with a shared but unstated goal of countering China’s growing political, economic and military power in the region.

Hasina could finally, shrug off her ‘Tom and Jerry’ policy with China and lend her diplomatic support to Indo-Pacific countries, despite China’s warning of “substantial damage” to ties if Bangladesh joined the US-led Quad alliance.

Beijing described joining the QUAD, a military alliance against China’s adversaries (India, Japan and the USA) and its relationship with neighbours.

The former Chinese ambassador Li Jiming on 10 May 2021, breaking diplomatic norms in Dhaka, told Bangladesh authorities that relations with Beijing would “substantially get damaged.”

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang’s surprise “technical stopover” at Dhaka in early January, en route to African nations was in fact not for late midnight tête-à-têtes over coffee between the two leaders.

For Qin, it was his first meeting with his counterpart, Dr Abul Kalam Abdul Momen in Dhaka since assuming office last year. He did not hesitate to vent his frustration over unfulfilled promises from China.

Bangladesh’s lopsided export to China was over $12 billion deficit, which was a special concern to Dhaka in the backdrop of the shaky foreign exchange reserves amid the global economic turmoil sparked by the war in Ukraine.

Momen reminded his counterpart that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s 2016 visit to Bangladesh had promised many investment pledges that have not materialised even after over six years. The complaint includes that an agreement to remove duties and quotas on 98 per cent of Bangladeshi goods has yet to see the light of day.

Whereas, Japan is Bangladesh’s largest export destination in Asia, in the last decade, Bangladesh’s exports (mostly apparel and leather products) to Tokyo have almost doubled. Nevertheless, there is still huge untapped trade potential for Bangladesh, which are “pharmaceuticals, agricultural and fishery products”, according to a Japanese diplomat.

The makeover of marginal trade imbalance will be reorganised after the signing of the free trade agreement (FTA).

A fresh impetus for strengthening trusted relations between the two countries could materialise, as Bangladesh is one of the most Japanese-friendly countries in Asia, with 71 per cent of Bangladeshis holding a favourable view of Japan, according to a 2014 Pew Research survey.

Japan’s BIG-B, an initiative for changing South Asia’s economic outlook, can play a key role in transforming Bangladesh into the heart of the regional economy by creating a gateway between South Asia and Southeast Asia, ensuring closer interregional cooperation, and incorporating Bangladesh into regional and global value chains, experts said.

Recently in New Delhi, when Kishida proposed developing an industrial hub in Bangladesh with “supply chains” to the landlocked north-eastern states of India, and to Nepal and Bhutan beyond by developing a port and transport in the region, “to foster the growth of the entire region,” hardly anybody understood the depth of his vision.

He was indicating to a mega deep-sea port under construction in southern Bangladesh would be a key economic hub for Japan and India as the QUAD partners aim to counter Chinese influence.

Development of the port of Matarbari will put a Japan-backed facility just north of Sonadia, another prime location on the Bay of Bengal where China has been eyeing development of  a deep-water port.

In fact, that facility never materialised, and Dhaka reportedly dropped the idea a few years ago on the behest of multi-pronged diplomacy by Delhi, reported Nikkei Asia.

“Geostrategy, much like real estate, is about location, location, location, and with Matarbari one can certainly check off that box,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre in Washington.

Japan, Bangladesh’s biggest development partner for decades, has long been aware of its strategic significance, which is why it committed to developing a port there about five years ago, said Kugelman.

The feel-good project to serve as a key port for the landlocked northeast Indian states (also known as Seven Sisters) is expected in 2027. The economic development will immensely contribute to the rich cultural heritage of the millions of vibrant communities living in the region, bordering China on the side and restive Myanmar in the south.

Meanwhile, projects for road and railway connectivity projects to the desired port from the Seven Sisters are almost completed by India and Bangladesh.

First published in India Narrative, New Delhi, India on  2 May 2023

(Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. Views expressed are personal. Twitter: @saleemsamad)

Is Bangladesh slowly embracing an Indo-Pacific strategy?

SALEEM SAMAD

Bangladesh is visibly and invisibly leaning towards the superpowers including the United States, China and Russia. But it also has friends and allies in the Middle East. India has been a proven friend, which has partnered Bangladesh’s development.

Bangladesh is now inching closer to embracing the Indo-Pacific Strategy, despite the country’s professed non aligned foreign policy.

However, Bangladesh has never strayed from its founding principle of nonalignment and wisdom drawn from its independence hero Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman which can be summed up as Friendship to all and malice toward none.

Bangladesh essentially aims to balance relations with rival states. Many explain that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina does not keep eggs in one basket. Thus, she wants to maintain diplomatic, economic and strategic partnerships albeit “unequally” with the United States, Russia, China, European Union, Arabs and of course India.

A month ago, the private news agency United News of Bangladesh (UNB)wrote that Dhaka has finalised a draft of its Indo-Pacific Outlook focused on objectives that mirror those of the Indo-Pacific Strategy. The draft plan dwells upon the need for a free, secure, and peaceful region, according to Foreign Policy’s South Asia brief prepared by Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Programme and Senior Associate for South Asia at the Wilson Centre, a nonpartisan research enterprise based in Washington DC.

Bangladesh It appears is moving closer to a full embrace of the Indo-Pacific Strategy pursued by the Americans and its partners in the region, which revolves around countering China. This move comes as the US and a few key allies have signalled that Bangladesh should be a part of the Indo-Pacific Strategy, according to the brief.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in New Delhi recently unveiled a new plan for the region, calling for strategic collaborations with Bangladesh, including a new economic partnership agreement.

A deep-sea port under construction in southern Bangladesh is shaping up to be a strategic linchpin for Japan and India as the Quad partners aim to counter Chinese influence, writes Nikkei Asia, an influential Japanese economic and finance media outlet.

Dhaka has friendly ties with the USA, and other members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (known as the Quad) including India, and Europe.

Development of the deep-sea port of Matarbari – a natural gateway to both South and Southeast Asia will put a Japan-backed facility just north of Sonadia, another prime location on the Bay of Bengal where China was expected to develop a port. But the Chinese facility did not materialise. Dhaka silently dropped the idea a few years ago, which caused diplomatic hullabaloo with Beijing.

Some leading pundits tend to declare a strategic victory for India in a South Asian great game between big powers. Anu Anwar, a research associate at the Fairbank Centre for Chinese Studies at Harvard University, told Nikkei Asia the Sonadia port deal with China did not succeed because of India’s opposition, which the [government] in Dhaka could not simply override due to its overreliance on Delhi.  Also, India’s tag-team partner, Japan is also considered a winner in this scenario, though some observers see no game at all, says Faisal Mahmud and Ryohtaroh Satoh in a joint article in Nikkei Asia.

In New Delhi, Kishida said the industrial value chain from the deep-sea port in the Bay of Bengal and the hinterland of landlocked northeast states [so-called Seven Sisters] of India which neighbours China, Myanmar and Bangladesh, will be immensely beneficial from “the growth of the entire region. Japanese, Indian and Bangladeshi officials also discussed the plans with G. Kishan Reddy, India’s federal minister for the northeast, welcoming Japan’s initiative, Reuters reported.

An Independence Day message from US chief executive Joseph R. Biden to Sheikh Hasina has caught the attention of many political observers. Bangladesh is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in January next year, Biden “reminded of the deep value both of our nations’ people place on democracy, equality, respect for human rights, and free and fair elections.” The message ended with the slogan ‘Joy Bangla’ (Victory for Bangladesh), which enthralled masses in Bangladesh.

A series of statements from the chief executive of the United States and other bigwigs of the country demonstrates that the stars are shining brightly over Bangladesh’s sky. In fact, US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken flattered Bangladesh and said the country is “quickly becoming a regional leader.”

On the occasion of the 52nd anniversary of the Independence of Bangladesh, the United States Congress introduced a resolution on 29 March recognising and commending Bangladesh and its remarkable socioeconomic progress under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina, official news agency Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (BSS) reported. The resolution said Bangladesh has successfully maintained a moderate Muslim society and curbed extremism in the country, but falls short of describing Bangladesh as a secular and pluralistic nation.

Despite the heart-warming tete-a-tete messages, Sheikh Hasina last week in the parliament in Dhaka did not hesitate to lambast America: “They are lecturing us on democracy and human rights. What’s the situation in their country?”

Amid the dilemma to decide or not to decide on a strategic partnership, China has stepped up its influence in Bangladesh through mega-infrastructure loans, which US officials have privately described as “bad deals” for the country.

It’s indeed an intriguing question as to why Bangladesh wishes to be associated with the Indo-Pacific Strategy and its goal of countering China. No doubt, participation in the US Indo-Pacific Strategy would bring Bangladesh closer to key trade and investment partners.

China is also a major supplier of arms to Bangladesh. So, getting Dhaka’s buy-in to the US-sponsored Indo-Pacific vision would be a strategic victory.

The current governments in Bangladesh and India are very close, and New Delhi is likely to have encouraged Dhaka to embrace the strategy, according to the brief by Wilson Centre.

Even as Bangladesh embraces the Indo-Pacific Strategy, it is still trying to placate China. Dhaka’s draft Indo-Pacific Outlook stipulates that it seeks to avoid rivalries and has no security goals, read the brief.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – includes many states that have cordial relations with China – opted for the same term in its Indo-Pacific coalition. Dhaka has also not indicated that it would join the Quad. Several visits of high-profile dignitaries in recent times from the United States, United Kingdom and European Union enforce that “these countries would want Bangladesh to take part in the Indo-Pacific Strategy read the brief.

Kugelman said Bangladesh has become a battleground for great power competition. It is strategically located, bordering India and serving as a gateway to both South and Southeast Asia. China is definitely concerned about the development of a regional strategic alliance. A few weeks ago, the Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen to Bangladesh squarely blamed Washington for pushing Dhaka into the US-backed Quad against China.

To deepen relations with China, Bangladesh could certainly back off from the US Indo-Pacific Strategy. Bangladesh appears to believe its interests aren’t compromised by stretching the limits of nonalignment, according to the brief.

In the coming years, when the dozens of mega-projects funded by Japan, China, Russia and India are finally implemented, it could be understood which superpower and regional powers wins the heart and minds of Bangladesh.

First published in the India Narrative on April 18, 2023

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. Views expressed are personal.  Twitter: @saleemsamad

Chinese ‘Wolf-Warrior’ diplomacy strikes Bangladesh!

“Wolf-Warrior Diplomacy,”, popular among the hawks in Beijing has reinforced the transition of Chinese diplomacy from conservative, passive, and low-key to assertive, proactive, aggressive, and high-profile

SALEEM SAMAD

This time Chinese a diplomat in the capital Dhaka threatened Bangladesh to not dare join the Quad Alliance, which is deemed by Beijing to harass China in the Indo-Pacific region.

“We do not want any form of participation of Bangladesh in this alliance” and remarked that the Quad—the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue is “a narrow purposed geopolitical clique”.

He quickly added that China views the Quad as a “military alliance aimed against China’s resurgence and its relationship with neighbouring countries”.

Incidentally, China has a major investment in infrastructure development including a couple of mega projects. These include, among others,  the prestigious 6.24 km long Padma Bridge, which Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina wishes to commission next year.

On May 10, the Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Li Jiming said Bangladesh should not join the “Quad”, a US-led initiative, and that Bangladesh’s relations with China will “substantially be damaged” if it joins it, reports a private news agency United News of Bangladesh (UNB).

The ‘Wolf-Warrior’ Jiming, has forgotten that China opposed Bangladesh independence struggle in 1971.

The Chinese Communist Party tilted its shoulder towards all-weather friend Pakistan’s marauding military occupation of Bangladesh in 1971 and provided enough weapons and bullets which has been blamed for escalating genocide and war crimes in Eastern War Theatre.

Like the Pakistan media, the institutionally heavily censored Chinese media did not mention the genocide committed by marauding soldiers. China literally shut their ears not to hear the agonies of 10 million war refugees who took shelter in India.

After the independence of Bangladesh, China continued to politically and diplomatically harass the newly emerged independent nation. Chinese leadership Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai continued to harass Bangladesh at the international forum, as well as instigated the radicalised pro-Chinese armed groups who rejected the independence of Bangladesh.

Despite Sheikh Mujib “forged friendships with Chairman Mao Zedong, Premier Zhou Enlai” when he visited China twice in 1952 and 1957, the leadership in early 70s declined to recognition to Bangladesh.

China refused to recognise Bangladesh as an independent state and spontaneously vetoed Bangladesh membership in the United Nations. The country desperately needed international food aid and economic support for the rehabilitation of the returnees from Indian refugee camps.

China deliberately vetoed the United Nations resolutions twice regarding the repatriation of Pakistani prisoners of war (POWs) and civilians held in India had not yet been implemented. Chinese move was obviously to keep Pakistan in good humor.

Well, Beijing recognised the illegitimate military junta in Bangladesh, after the assassination of independence hero Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in August 1975 in a military putsch.

Fast forward to the present. The Chinese ambassador in Dhaka has stated that China had sent a proposal to Bangladesh on 3rd February to provide Chinese vaccines ‘Sinopharm’ to contain coronavirus pandemic.

The diplomat regretted that Bangladesh took three months to approve this proposal from China. Bangladesh proposed to get Chinese vaccines on 30th April.

The following day, the Bangladesh Foreign Minister Dr AKM Momen in a strongly worded criticism slammed the Chinese Ambassador’s remark on coronavirus vaccines as “regrettable”.

Dr Momen on the remark that bilateral ties between the two countries will be “substantially damaged” if the country [Bangladesh] engages with the four-nation grouping of biggest naval powers in the region – the United States, India, Australia, and Japan – said, “We’re an independent and sovereign state. We decide our [own] foreign policy. But yes, any country can uphold its position.”

He did not hesitate to respond to a journalist’s query that he did not expect such behaviour from China.

The Chinese Ambassador bluntly said that Bangladesh would not gain benefit from joining the controversial Quad, and advised it to refrain from any sort of participation in the group.

The Quad, dubbed as “Asian NATO” is an informal strategic alliance comprising India, the United States, Australia, and Japan. Officially, the group was conceived as a forum to cooperate for safeguarding joint security and other interests in the Indo-Pacific region.

On the other hand, several coastal nations have complained of China’s rising hegemony in the South China Sea, while Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and several other nations have reported incidents of intrusions by Chinese vessels in their territory and harassing fishing vessels. Also complaining of Chinese hegemony in the South China Sea are Malaysia, Vietnam, South Korea and Thailand too.

The recent joint naval manoeuvre by the Indian Navy and Naval vessels of the US 7th Fleet in the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean has given a strong message to China that the oil shipment and trade route through the Indian Ocean could be troublesome if Chinese People’s Liberation Army skirmishes along Indo-China border continues.

India and China have been at loggerheads in the world’s highest peak’s harshest standoff the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Galwan Valley where 20 Indian soldiers lost their lives.

Recently the Chinese foreign ministry in Beijing has taken an increasingly strident tone against the United States, Australia, India and other countries.

The aggressive approach is known as “Wolf-Warrior Diplomacy,” and popular among the hawks in Beijing and has reinforced the transition of Chinese diplomacy from conservative, passive, and low-key to assertive, proactive, and high-profile to a new height.

In the coming days, the third-world countries and the West too will further see the bare fangs of Chinese “Wolf-Warrior Diplomacy”, which Chanakya, a great thinker and diplomat in ancient India will be ashamed of.

First published in International Affairs Review, 28 May 2021

Author is an an independent journalist, media rights defender, recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at <saleemsamad@hotmail.com>; Twitter @saleemsamad