In the wake of the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) verdict for the death penalty for Sheikh Hasina, will her political career come to an end on the road? It would be difficult for her to return to Bangladesh with a death penalty and lead the Awami League to survive in a rough sea.
Hasina’s father (Sheikh Mujibur Rahman) originally set up Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal to try cases of atrocities during the Liberation War. The ICT was supposed to put on trial 195 Pakistani military officers accused of war crimes in the 1971 bloody independence war.
Hasina revived the tribunal when she assumed power in 2009. The current regime has used it against her opponents, wrote Bhagyasree Sengupta in the FirstPost. Hasina did not show remorse for the crimes against humanity in killing 1,400 protesters during last year’s July-August bloody uprising.
Hasina refused to accept defeat. Her party members also refused—especially those who fled to India. She must be having sleepless nights and worrisome days. The woman who ruled Bangladesh for nearly 20 years with an iron hand did not express her remorse for misrule.
For the past 15 months, even while staying in India, Hasina has been spewing venom about the July–August uprising and, in a way, attempting to call for the overthrow of this government.
In the past, she lived in exile in Delhi. For her, it was not a new city when she lived a low-profile life for six years until 1981, forming close relationships with leaders like Indira Gandhi and Pranab Mukherjee. During her tenure as Prime Minister, she gradually tilted towards India for security, intelligence sharing, trade, bilateral relations, and other crucial issues.
Hasina became an all-weather friend of India. Delhi reciprocated unflinching support to Dhaka in the regional forum and international forum. She listened to Delhi and destroyed the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The platform for regional understanding and cooperation collapsed after Islamabad announced that host the SAARC Summit.
Indian Prime Minister boycotted the event, and promptly, Hasina also cancelled her visit to Pakistan. Islamabad has postponed the summit. Since the boycott of the SAARC Summit in 2016, Bangladesh-Pakistan bilateral relations have plummeted. At one stage, Hasina decided to snap diplomatic relations. She called back senior diplomats, including the High Commissioner to Dhaka and kept them idle. She refused to give clearance to the new Pakistan High Commissioner to Bangladesh for several years.
The news of ice-breaking was first known through Pakistan’s news media that a new High Commissioner has arrived and met Sheikh Hasina at the Prime Minister’s Office. It was not clear what changed the mindset of Hasina to meet the High Commissioner. Whether there was external influence or other compulsion. Dhaka also sent High Commissioners to Islamabad, which eased the diplomatic relations.
The country twice declared two diplomats of Pakistan persona non grata. Islamabad reciprocated by deporting one Bangladeshi diplomat. It could not be determined whether the diplomats sent back home were on the basis of tit-for-tat.
Meanwhile, trade and commerce continued at a slow pace. Both countries depended on each other’s products. Bangladesh is dependent on several products, as raw materials, to feed the export-oriented industries. What will happen to her party is difficult to predict.
However, several political observers say the days will become thinner for Hasina. The extravagant pomp and glory that she enjoyed will be no more, no doubt, said a political analyst, Mohiuddin Ahmad, political historian and writer.
Well, Hasina will not be extradited by India, where she is living in a safe home, somewhere in New Delhi, presumed to be an armed force establishment. Dhaka has once again sent a note verbale in reference to the verdict of the death penalty, and the ICT has declared her a fugitive.
India, as usual, is dead silent over the issue of extradition. The Ministry of External Affairs has issued a brief statement acknowledging the ICT verdict and carefully did not mention the Delhi plan about Hasina’s status. The silence gave a clear message that Delhi will not hand over its loyal friend, Hasina and will not speak a word about her status.
There will be no resolution to these questions while this current government remains in power. The government has made it clear that the Awami League will not be allowed to contest the election during this term. What happens next will depend entirely on the government that comes afterwards—our future course and the structure of our politics will be shaped by that, wrote once a fiery student leader, Mahmudur Rahman Manna, in the largest circulated Bangla daily Prothom Alo.
Returning Hasina and her co-accused to Home Minister Asaduzzaman Kamal is dark. She and he co-accused, will live in Indian as guest. No Indian government will send her back when her life is in danger.
Delhi may reject the ICT and deny its legitimate existence and trial in a tribunal which was exclusively set up by Hasina for the trial of war criminals and crimes against humanity committed during the 1971 war.
The Indian statement, soon after the verdict of Hasina’s death penalty it has put the International Crimes Tribunal in question. Which means Delhi does not recognize the tribunal.
Indian could use the exception clause in the 2013 Bangladesh-India Extradition Treaty. There are certain clauses which could give leverage to India, refusing to hand over Hasina and others, said Suhasini Haidar with The Hindu.
To keep the diplomatic channels open to discuss Bangladesh’s concerns, convey India’s concern and possibly push Bangladesh for an inclusive election to allow Hasina’s party, Awami League, to participate in the upcoming February election, said Haider.
Presently, the government has imposed restrictions on party activities, and the Election Commission has deleted the boat symbol from the list of election symbols.
The death sentence awarded to Sheikh Hasina, former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, is a seismic political event that will be seared into the nation’s collective memory for a long time. Its tremors will be felt through the country’s institutions even if the death sentence is never executed.
Ironically, Hasina has now fallen victim to the system she created by weaponizing the judiciary against her political opponent, Bharat Bhushan writes.
First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Pakistan, on 27 November 2025
Saleem Samad is an independent journalist based in Bangladesh and a media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders. He is the recipient of the Ashoka Fellowship and the Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at: saleem.samad.1971@gmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad
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