Winners of ‘Talibanistan’

Taliban Fighters and Truck in Kabul, August 17 2021. Wikimedia commons

SALEEM SAMAD

Dhaka: Outspoken physicist Prof Pervez Hoodbhoy is based in Pakistan. In his popular column in the Dawn newspaper, published from Karachi says that Russia and the United States are squarely responsible for Afghanistan’s tragedy but Pakistan is certainly not innocent.

The political historians cannot hold their emotion that Afghanistan is often described as the “graveyard of empires” and never have been conquered by invaders.

The British or Soviet Russia failed to dominate the ferocious nation. The fiercest tribes fought all the invaders from the Persian and Arabs. Several centuries ago, Alexander the Great (Greek) and Tamerlane (Mongol) had to pack up and head for home.

After Russia’s withdrawal in 1988, Pakistan’s military hawks in Rawalpindi trained the Taliban to take over Afghanistan following a devastating civil war with the Mujahideen.

Some apologetic security analysts argue that new Taliban’s are reformed and have graduated from barbarianism to moderate militants. Many others trashed the argument and said the Taliban leadership has not moved an inch from the radical interpretation of Sunni Islam.

The cleric’s high command moved from Qatar to Kandahar has begun to execute the strict Sharia code, which is slated as misogynist to subjugate the vibrant Afghan women, especially those tens and thousands who rose in the last two decades.

The Taliban’s occupation ushers the demise of the women in higher education, sports (football and cricket), fashion industry, musical choir and choreography, not to speak of the fate of award-winning filmmaker Roya Sadat.

Talibanistan will be a living hell for millions of Afghans who dreamt of pluralism, democracy, freedom of expression, and freedom of faith.

Taliban-wallas cannot deny their three-decade nexus with Pakistan’s spy agency ISI bonded in a trusted relationship.

Most of the families of the top Taliban leaders live in Pakistan for their security and safety coordinated by Rawalpindi.

With full knowledge of the Rawalpindi, the Taliban regime provided sanctuary to the dreaded international terror network Al-Qaeda, which launched brazen 9/11 attacks on the soil of the United States.

The emergence of the Taliban after 20 years will surely benefit other regional players from the invasion. The country is obviously a win for all who wish to see the Americans humiliated. Iran is happy to see that the United States and NATO left her neighborhood.

Obviously, the “winners” are China, Iran, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia and Turkey. Most of these countries hosted the Taliban and backed them up.

Landlocked Afghanistan, unfortunately, has two rogue states Iran and Pakistan as its neighbors. Pakistan and Iran should be held responsible for destroying Afghanistan and creating a new Talibanistan state.

Pakistan is also a winner when its Prime Minister Imran Khan said Afghans have broken the “shackles of slavery”.

Pakistan is looking forward to the Taliban joining the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

That would boost Pakistan’s ailing economy amid the Covid-19 pandemic and lack of US aid.

Christine Fair, a security pundit explains that Pakistan will continue to use 1.4 million Afghan refugees as rent-seekers from international aid organizations and sympathy of the west.

Weeks before the collapse of Kabul, both Russia and China held parleys with high-profile Taliban delegations.

Like China and Pakistan, the Russian diplomatic mission remained open in Afghanistan. Russia wants secure borders for its Central Asian allies and to stymie terrorism and drug trafficking.

The two power players, Russia and China for a century have had a love and hate relationship. They played a crucial role in the United Nations Security Council meets on the Afghanistan crisis. With Moscow and Beijing’s support, the Taliban is likely to obtain international clout.

The preceding Kabul government showed cold feet to join the “Golden Ring” nexus – proposed by China’s vision of Road and Belt Initiative (BRI) megaproject in West Asia.

Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey gave their green signal to the Chinese “Golden Ring” nexus for their superiority in South and West Asia.

The axis of evil has its eyes on energy and rich mineral resources in Afghanistan, plus transnational gas pipeline through the heartland of Talibanistan.

For now, the Afghanistan debacle is a major setback for the image of the USA globally in terms of the perception that US-backed systems tend to be as weak and temporary as the grass that greens with the spring and withers in the fall.

A humorist posted on social media writes: Taliban’s has proved HG Wells’ time-machine is possible, but the device goes backward into the 7th century, unfortunately, it does not have a fast-forward lever.

First published in Pressenza portal, 14 September 2021

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist, media rights defender in Bangladesh. Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter: @saleemsamad

Economy, hunger, drought, poverty challenges the Taliban

Taliban militants patrolling streets of Kabul - Reuters

SALEEM SAMAD

While world leaders and international organizations are eagerly awaiting for the chicken to hatch from the Taliban’s government, they have begun to implement the Islamic Sharia to govern the nation -- a harsh interpretation of Islamic law.

The stakeholder countries, including China, Iran, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates, are pursuing the Taliban to form an inclusive government to unify the nation that has been riddled with civil strife, poverty, and hunger for several decades.

Qatar, UAE, and Turkey will be major partners in the operational management of Afghanistan, while China will be the development partner. The Taliban’s military partner -- a well-known secret -- is Pakistan.

Moments after the Taliban invasion of Kabul, they rechristened the country as an “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan,” which overrides the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan stated by the American-backed government.

The Taliban has already pressed the “factory reset” button to return to the medieval age. The Taliban’s commanders and leaders have proved that the HG Wells book The Time Machine is now a reality. Unfortunately, the Taliban’s time machine will push an entire nation back to the 7th century.

The Islamists have won the war against the giant Americans and Nato forces -- now they have to put their heads on the drawing board to govern Afghanistan. They also have to learn the best means to win public trust and confidence, which comes through ballots, not through bullets.

The crucial issue that lies ahead for the Taliban is way forward strategies in recovery from civil war, cash crunch, hunger, severe drought, and of course, poverty. The Taliban leaders have proven their ability in public diplomacy and handling the international media efficiently.

The mullahs have taken charge of a nation that relies heavily on international aid; amidst a cash crunch, that could spell disaster for the finance of the government. On the other hand, the local currency is losing value, while foreign reserves are held abroad and currently frozen.

The immediate challenge the Taliban will face is reviving the economy. Western nations are waiting to twist the arms of cleric leaders sitting in Kabul and Kandahar. The Taliban need to work out how to pay government employees and keep running crucial utility services and infrastructures such as water, power, and communications.

There is widespread suspicion among Afghans about how much the Taliban has really changed since the 1990s -- especially among religious minorities and sects like Hazara, Hindus, Sikhs, and Christians, not to speak of the future of the LGBTQ community.

Afghanistan is one of the poorest nations in the world. After the Taliban were toppled in 2001, huge amounts of foreign aid flowed into the country. International assistance was more than 40% of the Afghan GDP in 2020. Most of it is now suspended, with no guarantees about the rest.

The other challenge is the critical shortage of skilled Afghans, including bureaucrats, bankers, doctors, engineers, professors, and university graduates, all terrified of life under the Islamists.

The United Nations has warned of a humanitarian crisis, with food stocks running low because of disruptions caused by conflict. With winter approaching and the drought still ongoing, the political scenario will dent the credibility of the Taliban among Afghans who have suffered pain, and agony in the civil war.

An Egyptian-French political scientist, Samir Amin, who died at the age of 86 three years ago, aptly said: “Never have the armies of the North (the West) brought peace, prosperity, or democracy to the peoples of the South (Asia, Africa, or Latin America).”

First published in the Dhaka Tribune, 7 September 2021

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist, media rights defender, recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at <saleemsamad@hotmail.com>; Twitter @saleemsamad

Arabs have failed the Palestinians

Smoke and flames rise from a tower building as it is destroyed by Israeli air strikes amid a flare-up of Israeli-Palestinian violence, in Gaza City May 12, 2021 Reuters

SALEEM SAMAD

The 11-day fierce fire-fight between the militants of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad with Israel caused at least 243 people, including more than 100 women and children, to be killed in Gaza.

The Israeli military says more than 4,300 homemade Qassam rockets --   a simple, steel artillery rocket developed and deployed by the military arm of Hamas -- were fired towards its territory by Palestinian militants.

Since the rockets were pressed into conflict with Israel in 2001, the improvised rocketry technology is not capable of being fired to target military sites, and is "indiscriminate when used against targets in population centres."

Nevertheless, the improvised rockets rained down deep into central Israel and crashed into former capital Tel Aviv. Israel’s state-of-the-art air defense system “Iron Dome” however managed to intercept 90% of the rockets from Gaza.

On the 12th day, Egypt brokered a ceasefire which was also backed by US President Joe Biden. The fragile ceasefire apparently seems to have halted the skirmish for a while. No surprise that both sides have claimed victory.

In a virtual conference held several days after the airstrikes caused havoc in Gaza, the 57-nation Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) was outraged, when hundreds of women and children were victims of collateral damage over the conflict in Gaza.

Only Saudi Arabia condemned Israel for “flagrant violations” in Gaza, calling on the global community to act urgently to put an end to Israel’s attacks on Gaza.

Surprisingly, most Arab countries except Kuwait, Iran, and Turkey did not rebuke Israel harshly for the recent conflict that started in East Jerusalem during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which spread to Gaza as a result of Israeli assaults on worshippers in the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound and coupled with the eviction of Palestinians from the Sheikh Jarrah neighbourhood.

The Muslim countries are divided in a thick and thin line of a partisan realignment of a global superpower. Despite being the “guardians of Islam” and “protector of Muslims,” Arab monarchies have demonstrated that they care only to counter Iran.

Joe Biden, however, reiterated that the Israel and Palestine crisis lies in a two-state solution, nothing more and nothing less to create a sovereign Palestine State.

The radicalized Islamist party Hamas had landslide wins in 2005 and 2006 elections in Gaza, which resulted in a crucial split of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), established as a consequence of the 1993–1995 Oslo Accords.

The Palestine Authority, dominated by the Fatah party, was founded by Yasser Arafat and is governed from Ramallah in the West Bank. The PNA is recognized internationally as the sole representative of the State of Palestine but does not recognize the Hamas authority which rules Gaza.

The trouble began when Fatah lost the elections to Hamas in Gaza. Subsequent Palestinian rocket attacks on Israel and Israeli airstrikes on Gaza, and the joint Egyptian-Israeli blockade of Gaza, have exacerbated the conflict.

As part of its 2005 disengagement plan, Egypt retained control of the border, and border crossings were supervised by European monitors, while Israel retained exclusive control over Gaza's airspace and territorial waters, and continued to patrol and monitor the external land perimeter of Gaza.

According to Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, Israel remains an occupying power under international law. The United Nations has stated that under resolutions of both the General Assembly and the Security Council, it regards Gaza to be part of the "Occupied Palestinian Territories."

The international community is outraged at indiscriminate attacks on civilians and civilian structures that do not differentiate between civilians and military targets -- and that is tantamount to a crime against humanity under international law.

First published in Dhaka Tribune, 27 May 2021

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist, media rights defender, recipient of Ashoka Fellow (USA) and Hellman-Hammett Award. Email saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter @saleemsamad

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan face-off over Kashmir

A world map minted in Saudi Arabia's banknote shows Jammu and Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan not in Pakistan - Photo: Public Domain

SALEEM SAMAD

The Islamic Republic of Pakistan has now fallen out of grace from Saudi Arabia. The diplomatic relations have gone cold after Islamabad attempted to ally with Turkey.

In recent times, the relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Turkey have dived further after the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October 2018.

The Kingdom’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud (popularly known as MBS), squeezed Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan to repay a $1 billion loan.

To further humiliate Pakistan, the Kingdom announced that the $1 billion, repaid by Pakistan, would be invested in Reliance Jio Fibre in India.

Embarrassed, Pakistan saved its face by repaying the debt with the help of China, and Khan’s electoral vision for “Naya Pakistan” is in shambles. 

After Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi struck Article 370 from Jammu & Kashmir on August 5, 2019, which revoked its special status, Islamabad did not hesitate to criticize Riyadh over the contentious issue.

The worst is yet to come.

On October 24, Saudi Arabia released a 20 Riyal banknote to commemorate its presidency of organizing a G-20 summit on November 21-22. The world map displayed at the rear of this commemorative banknote deliberately scraped Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir from the map of Pakistan.

Riyadh was angered over Islamabad’s official publication of a new political map in August 2020, which has shown Kashmir annexed with Pakistan, leading Delhi to term it as “political absurdity.”

Riyadh believes Pakistan has no legitimacy over Gilgit-Baltistan and Jammu & Kashmir. The depiction of the map of Pakistan devoid of Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan has adequately disgraced Pakistan in the international arena, particularly in the Muslim world. 

Well, the disputed Jammu & Kashmir have been taken out from the map of India too. The map depicts Kashmir Valley as an independent nation.

South Block in New Delhi immediately protested for the exclusion of Kashmir from India and demanded an explanation. Riyadh is yet to issue a statement. 

China, an all-weather friend of Pakistan, had been irked in the process and along with Pakistan has thrice dragged the Kashmir issue to the UN Security Council in the past year.

Pakistan miserably failed to draw the attention of the 57 members of Muslim nations -- the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) -- for a call for condemnation on scraping Kashmir autonomy.

During the China and India face-off over Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, Pakistan became desperate to form a new bloc with Turkey, Iran, Malaysia, China, and Russia, outside the traditional dictates of the United States. Malaysia silently backed out.

The Kingdom has given a clear signal to Islamabad that the KSA-India economic ties strengthened with a rejection of any financial aid to Pakistan is a new marker in international relations.

Observers understand that Saudi Arabia’s attitude towards Pakistan may also be “read” as “no confidence” against China.

Further pouring salt in the wounds, the governments of Saudi Arabia and Iran refused to allow Pakistan diplomatic missions to hold public events to observe the October 27 anniversary of Jammu & Kashmir’s accession to India as a 'Black Day'.

Plans to hold a public event inside Pakistan’s consulate in Riyadh were also blocked by the Kingdom.

Similarly, the Pakistan embassy in Tehran’s proposal to hold an event at Tehran University to observe Black Day was refused.

The change in stance adopted by two influential Islamic countries is a reflection of Pakistan’s equations in the Middle East as a fallout of its growing partnership with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is seen to aspire for a leadership role in the Islamic world.

Analysts believe Imran Khan had bitten off more than he could chew. It’s a clear sign of Khan’s growing desperation for his failure to garner support over India’s abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir.

First published in the Dhaka Tribune on 3 November 2020

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist, media rights defender, and recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He can be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com. Twitter @saleemsamad

What is the ‘golden ring’ axis?

China continues to consolidate power and strengthen ties with Asian countries

SALEEM SAMAD

In a geopolitical response to the decline of the Western influence in South Asia and West Asia, China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey envisage a “golden ring” axis to expand their hegemony on South and West Asia.

The vision of the golden ring of China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey was first disclosed recently by Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan.

The effort to forge an alliance surfaced after Afghanistan refused to be drawn into the golden ring axis. Kabul does not trust their immediate neighbour Pakistan and the nation has not forgotten the ruthless Russian occupation installing a puppet regime.

Afghanistan squarely blames Pakistan’s elite security agency in Rawalpindi GHQ for aiding and abetting ruthless Taliban militia.

Kabul is equally not comfortable with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The assassinated General Qasem Soleimani of the elite Al Quds military had recruited Afghan Shia militia to fight the Kabul government, which Iran believes is a stooge of the Americans, and thus an enemy of Islam.

Contrary to US perceptions, the Kremlin realizes the importance of Pakistan for a peaceful settlement of the Afghan conflict. Unfortunately, Afghanistan seemed to have disappeared from the White House radar in the run-up to the US Presidential Elections.

The US author Robert D Kaplan wrote in his book, The Revenge of Geography: “Pressure on land can help the United States thwart China at Sea.” But post exit from Afghanistan, America will lose that advantage since its “pivot Asia” will be largely reduced to the high seas.

Well, the US has been an undisputed global power since the collapse of the Soviet Union. China has risen from Mao’s anti-capitalist policy into a strong rival to the US. The Trump administration’s aggressive foreign policy is pushing away China and pulling closer allies who were never their loyal partners in economic development.

China has strengthened its ties with countries that were ignored or bullied by America. Therefore, the emergence of a new golden ring of China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey is becoming a reality.

China has fathomless pockets to fund economic development, and forging ties with Iran, Pakistan, Russia, and Turkey to join the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

In 2019, Iran formally joined China’s “One Belt One Road” initiative. Tehran announced that it has partnered with Beijing for the strategist Chabahar port in Iran. It will make Iran an integral part of the BRI, linking China with Europe via Turkey.

Turkey, despite being an ally of the NATO military alliance, has drifted from Washington in recent times.

Ankara’s occupation of Northern Cyprus for more than four decades, military assistance to rogue rebel General Haftar opposed to UN-backed Libyan government, intermittent military strikes against Kurds -- the bravehearts who fought the dreaded Islamic State marauder -- has angered not only the US, but also European nations.

America could have said “checkmate” when US aircraft carriers and hosts of battleships were joined by naval forces of Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia to take strategic control of the South China Sea, where China wanted its hegemony of the disputed sea.

Meanwhile, after the Galwan Valley face-off between India and China, India has readied its naval fleet in the Indian Ocean, rallying with US frigates from the Seventh Fleet, a tacit threat to China maritime for oil shipment from Iran. The manipulative geopolitical strategy in Asia may yield dividends which could be measured with a yardstick. Eventually, it needs to be understood about who will reap the maximum gain from the golden ring axis.

First published in the Dhaka Tribune, 27 July 2020

Saleem Samad is an independent journalist, media rights defender, recipient of Ashoka Fellowship, and Hellman-Hammett Award. He can be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com. Twitter @saleemsamad

Khashoggi verdict is what Saudi impunity looks like

Jamal Khashoggi - File Photo

SALEEM SAMAD

On Christmas Eve, last year a Saudi court verdict exonerating the crown prince's top aides over the murder of Saudi born journalist Jamal Khashoggi and has been globally condemned as a travesty of justice.

While in exile in the United States, Khashoggi was a regular contributor to an influential American newspaper the Washington Post, the daily writes that the verdict is exactly what impunity looks like in Saudi Arabia, and it must be denounced, especially those who cares about freedom of the press.

The world Not surprised, the five unnamed Saudis were sentenced to death and three others were awarded various prison terms over the killing of the Washington Post columnist in 2018 at Saudi Arabia's consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. It was unclear who was sentenced to death.

He was strangled and dismembered by a 15-member Saudi death squad inside the consulate, according to Turkish officials. His body have not been found despite intense forensic searches.

What is also not a surprise that the top aides of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's directly in the conspiracy to the worst diplomatic crimes were given royal impunity.

The murder plunged Turkey and Saudi Arabia into a diplomatic crisis, which undermines Salman's global reputation and sparked intense scrutiny of the kingdom's human rights record.

However, the murder and shadowy trial is likely to cause hiccups for Saudi Arabia as it gears up for this year's Group of 20 - G20 summit in Riyadh, capital of Saudi Arabia. Turkey obviously criticised the sham trial and called it a "scandalous" outcome that had granted "impunity" to those who had dispatched the killers - apparently pointing fingers to the crown prince.

But the U.S. State Department praised the verdict as "an important step" in holding the perpetrators accountable. The European Union reiterated the need to ensure "accountability and prosecution of all those responsible."Nevertheless, Riyadh described the murder as a "rogue" operation and obviously exonerated the crown prince for any conspiracy leading to the death of Khashoggi.

Earlier both the Central Intelligence Agency - CIA and United Nations special envoy Agnes Callamard has directly linked Prince Salma to the killing, a charge the kingdom vehemently denies.

Callamard, of course, called the verdict a "mockery," which she expressed on her Twitter: "Bottom line: the hit-men are guilty, sentenced to death. The masterminds not only walk free. They have barely been touched by the investigation and the trial."

Why the self-exiled Saudi born journalist who was once a close ally of crown prince become the number one state enemy? Khashoggi, a 59-year-old Saudi was an establishment insider-turned-critic.In a trial held in camera in a Riyad, the Saudi prosecutors said deputy intelligence chief Ahmed al-Assiri oversaw Khashoggi's killing.

The sham trial of 11 suspects accused of the murder defended themselves in court by saying they were carrying out al-Assiri's orders, describing him as the "ringleader" of the operation. Several aides who have been acquitted in the murder of Khashoggi and their names were deliberately dropped from the accuse lists will remain behind the curtain. Those aides who travelled to Istanbul will never be seen in public accompanying the crown prince for months to come to avoid global media outcry.

First published in The Asian Age, 4 January 2020

Saleem Samad, is an independent journalist, media rights defender, recipient of Ashoka Fellow (USA) and Hellman-Hammett Award. He can be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com