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Wednesday, March 26, 2025

India shies over Yunus-Modi talks

SALEEM SAMAD

India has not declined a meeting with Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus, Chief adviser of Bangladesh Interim Government and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

South Block in New Delhi did not respond to a request for Yunus-Modi state-level bilateral meeting in New Delhi. Through diplomatic channels Yunus administration requested for a bilateral visit in December 2024.

Nor did Delhi respond to a meeting on the sidelines of BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) on 3-4 April in Bangkok, Thailand.

Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar remained non-committal, saying “Bangladesh’s request for a meeting between its interim government’s Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus and Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the upcoming BIMSTEC Summit is under consideration.”

BIMSTEC is a regional organization of seven countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand) focused on promoting economic and technical cooperation in the Bay of Bengal region, with its secretariat located in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

The platform dropped Pakistan and Maldives giving a flimsy excuse that the countries do not share the Bay of Bengal. Whereas, Nepal and Bhutan do not have shores with the Bay of Bengal but are said to be beneficiaries of the sea.

Meanwhile, the independent Indian newspaper The Hindu reported on 25 March that Yunus wanted to visit India before China, but did not receive a positive response, quoting Press Secretary Shafiqul Alam to Prof Yunus’s administration.

Yunus seeks bilateral ties with India before visiting China, pitching Bangladesh as a business-friendly destination, writes Kallol Bhattacherjee in the Hindu.

Bangladesh is still waiting for a response from India for a meeting between Yunus and Modi on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC summit.

Chief Adviser of the interim government of Bangladesh desired to travel to India before visiting China but Dhaka’s request for the visit did not elicit a “positive” Indian response, said Alam.

Yunus is the second leader from South Asia to be hosted in China in four months. Nepal’s Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli travelled to China in December 2024 on an official visit.

Like the formal request to extradite ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in December last year, the meeting between the two heads of government, Delhi remains absolutely silent. Indian government remains conspicuously tight lipped over the possible bilateral meeting.

Sources in the Bangladesh Ministry of Foreign Affairs who is privy to the exchange of diplomatic messages said there could be multiple reasons, why India continues to be silent over the requests from Bangladesh.

First, India-Bangladesh ties should not be ‘regime-specific’, says Bangladesh Foreign Affairs Adviser Mohmmad Touhid Hossain. Second, India is officially not prepared to make any commitment to the extradition of Hasina.

Third, how will Modi respond to Yunus when he asks him when India will extradite her to stand trial for crimes against humanity responsible for the deaths of over 1400 students and protesters?

The United Nations High Commission for Human Rights, in their 114-page investigation report, says “The brutal response was a calculated and well-coordinated strategy by the former Government [of Awami League] to hold onto power in the face of mass opposition,” UN Human Rights (OHCHR), Chief Volker Türk, said.

“There are reasonable grounds to believe hundreds of extrajudicial killings, extensive arbitrary arrests and detentions, and torture, were carried out with the knowledge, coordination and direction of the political leadership and senior security officials as part of a strategy to suppress the protests.”

The UN fact-finding mission report directly blames Hasina for ordering law enforcement agencies to shoot at protesters with live bullets to neutralize the anti-government street uprising.

Indian media has raised storms on news broadcasts and talk shows that India cannot invite a “stooge” of the United States and China, an unelected leader, etcetera, etcetera. Most importantly, he does not represent the people of Bangladesh which was the first reason for India not responding to Bangladesh’s request for an official meeting.

Bilateral political history of Bangladesh says it differently. At least three military dictators made official visits to Delhi. Like General Ziaur Rahman (1977-1981), General Hussain Muhammad Ershad (1982-1990) and Lt. Gen Moeen U Ahmed (2006-2008), despite not having the people’s mandate.

Indian ruling and opposition parties never objected to the bilateral meetings with three military dictators. The Indian media was not vociferous against their official visits.

The Indian media, also joined by the Indian ruling party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), failed to reconcile with the forcible departure of their all-weather friend Sheikh Hasina, who has taken refuge on the outskirts of Delhi. Jaishankar last week told the Consultative Committee on External Affairs in Delhi that India was aware of the mounting discontent against Hasina leading up to the ouster of her government on 5 August 2024, but could not intervene as it lacked the necessary leverage over the former prime minister.

Admitting tensions between Delhi and Dhaka, especially after India granted refuge to Hasina, the Interim Government in Bangladesh has begun engaging with India, Jaishankar told the Indian lawmakers.

Commenting on the influence of “external actors” in Bangladesh, Jaishankar said he viewed China as a regional “competitor” rather than an “adversary”, writes The Hindu.

Indian External Affairs Minister Jaishankar also told the meeting that SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) was inactive because of Pakistan’s approach and thus India is trying to strengthen BIMSTEC.

In the worst-case scenario, Narendra Modi is expected to drop attending BIMSTEC at the last moment and instead send an emissary on his behalf to attend the summit. Thus, the Modi-Yunus sideline meeting will not happen.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan on 26 March 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Sunday, March 23, 2025

Rohingya Refugees Return Dim, Dimmer, and Dimmest


SALEEM SAMAD

Three significant developments have occurred in a week which once again brought the much-talked-about Rohingya refugee crisis to the global media.

First, last week United Nations Secretary General António Guterres visited the Rohingya refugees living in squalid camps in south-east Bangladesh. Besides Bangladesh, Rohingyas are languishing in camps in India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. The majoritarian Rohingyas are camped in Bangladesh.

Amid aid cuts, the Secretary-General emphasized that the international community cannot turn its back on the Rohingya crisis. “We cannot accept that the international community forgets about the Rohingyas,” he said, adding that he will “speak loudly” to world leaders that more support is urgently needed.

UN aid efforts in Rohingya camps are in jeopardy following reductions of funds announced by major donors, including the United States and several European nations. Guterres described Cox’s Bazar (where the Rohingya camps are situated) as “ground zero” for the impact of these cuts, warning of a looming humanitarian disaster if immediate action is not taken.

The visiting guest joined with the Rohingya for Iftar (not on the same menu as the refugees). The overwhelming majority of Rohingyas are Muslim, among an estimated 1.2 million refugees. A small number are Hindus and Christians. The Secretary-General could not promise how he would augment food aid and the deadline for the safe and sustainable return of the refugees to Myanmar.

Despite being a poor country, Bangladesh is hosting over one million Rohingya refugees who fled violence in neighboring Myanmar. The largest exodus followed brutal attacks by Tatmadaw (Myanmar security forces) in 2017. A series of dreadful events prompted the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights to describe the atrocities as a “textbook example of ethnic cleansing.”

Myanmar military junta under General Min Aung Hlaing who has ruled Myanmar as the State Administration Council (SAC) chairman since seizing power in the  February 2021 coup d’état overthrowing the elected government of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

Hlaing refuses to hold parley with the United Nations officials and does not speak with Bangladesh. Also has imposed restrictions on international NGOs and aid agencies. Such arrogance became visible after the United Nations Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Myanmar, led by Marzuki Darusman, said that Min Aung Hlaing, along with four other Generals (Soe Win, Aung Kyaw Zaw, Maung Maung Soe, and Than Oo) should be tried for war crimes and crimes against humanity (including genocide) in the International Criminal Court (ICC), at The Hague, The Netherlands.

Recently, the Rakhine state, 36,762 square kilometers (14,194 sq mi) bordering Bangladesh has been overrun by battle-hardened Arakan Army (AA) guerillas. The AA dashed all hopes for the repartition of Rohingyas when the guerilla headquarters issued an official statement extending an olive branch to hold dialogue with Bangladesh authorities but on one condition. The agenda for discussion should not include the return of Bengali Muslims (which means Rohingya).

However, AA urges to continue trade and commerce, border security, and a few other bilateral issues. Bangladesh deliberately did not respond. Dhaka does not recognize ethnic military command to be a legitimate authority to hold official talks. Myanmar military junta and the rebels have similar mindsets identifying the Rohingyas as “Bengali Muslims” who have been blamed for illegally migrating from neighboring Bangladesh since a century ago.

The draconian Citizenship Law of 1982 requires individuals to prove that their ancestors lived in Myanmar before 1823, refuse to recognize Rohingya Muslims as one of the nation’s ethnic groups and delist their language as a national language.

Bangladesh has earlier raised the refugee crisis at several international platforms including the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), the Commonwealth, the United Nations, and other global summits. Despite limited or no contributions for the ‘stateless’ Rohingya, instead the world Muslim countries lauded Bangladesh for providing food and shelter to them.

Unfortunately, several attempts to repatriate the refugees fell flat in 2018 and 2019. Instead, Bangladesh blames the intransigent policy of Suu Kyi’s government, which was ousted by military leaders and placed her under house arrest in February 2021. Academicians and researchers on forced migration and the refugee crisis are convinced that there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

Second, the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) warns of a critical funding shortfall for its emergency response operations in Bangladesh, jeopardizing food assistance for over one million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh.

Without urgent new funding, monthly rations will be halved to US$6 per person, down from US$12.50 per person – just as refugees were preparing to observe Eid, the biggest Muslim festival at the end of Ramadan at the end of this month. To sustain full rations, WFP urgently requires US$15 million for April, and US$81 million until the end of 2025.

In recent months, as conflicts in Rakhine state were at the peak between AA and the junta’s soldiers, fresh waves of Rohingya refugees exceeding 100,000 have crossed into Bangladesh. The continued trickle of Rohingya seeking safety has further contributed to greater strain on already overstretched resources.

Bangladesh’s government for decades refused to recognize the Rohingya as “refugees”, in an excuse that the government has not signed the Convention on the Status of Refugees of 1951.

For a million population with no legal status, no freedom of movement outside the camps, confined inside barbed wires and no sustainable livelihood opportunities, further cuts will exacerbate protection and security risks, says the UN agency.

The vulnerability is likely to heighten risks of exploitation, trafficking, prostitution, and domestic violence among women and girls. Children are expected to drop out of learning schools and be forced into child labor. There will be a spike in child brides as families resort to desperate measures to survive on meager rations.

Third, on the day when Fortify Rights released its 78-page research report, “I May Be Killed Any Moment: Killings, Abductions, Torture, and Other Serious Violations by Rohingya Militant Groups in Bangladesh” in Dhaka, the special security forces nabbed the Islamic jihadist Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) supremo Ataullah Abu Ammar Jununi, commonly known as Ataullah near the capital Dhaka on 18 March without a firefight.

Fortify Rights, an international human rights investigation NGO, recommends that the Government of Bangladesh and international justice mechanisms – including the Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar and the ICC – investigate Rohingya militant organizations operational in the refugee camps in Bangladesh and prosecute those responsible for war crimes.

Such specific Intel in capturing Ataullah must have been shared by Pakistan’s military establishment in Rawalpindi. International media has been blaming Pakistan’s spy agency ISI for recruitment, training and funding for ARSA.

Indian security agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) has kept ARSA under strict surveillance. Monitoring their leader’s sleeper cell, monetary exchanges, and their covert activities.

ARSA first came into the limelight in August 2017 after the jihadist overran several Myanmar’s Border Guards Forces outposts along Bangladesh-Myanmar international borders. After the firefight, ARSA fell back to Bangladesh’s no-man’s-land, which is covered by hill forests and scores of streams.

Earlier, Bangladesh, Myanmar and India refused to accept ARSA as a jihadist outfit. The militant group was described as ‘Rohingya Muslim vigilantes’ with a limited ordinance and disorganized, therefore nothing to be worried about was in their mind.

ARSA’s attacks sparked Tatmadaw’s (Myanmar military) to commit a brutal genocidal campaign against Rohingya Muslims. The troops torched hundreds of villages and went on a rampage for months despite international calls to cease brutality against the Rohingyas.

The Naypyidaw labeled ARSA as an “extremist Bengali terrorists, also Rohingya Muslim terrorists,” warning that its goal is to establish an Islamic state in the Rakhine state. Such an ambitious objective will be difficult to implement in a Buddhist-majority region.

Myanmar blames Pakistan’s dreaded Pakistan’s spy agency ISI for its share in mentoring the jihadist outfit. Their theory that ARSA has been raised, funded, and provides logistics and indoctrination was masterminded by ISI and is also believed by both Bangladesh and India.

Simultaneously, India became worried about the presence of the jihadist outfit at the border of Bangladesh-Myanmar-India. The skirmish with Myanmar troops has also raised the eyebrows of Bangladesh and expressed alarm on the visible presence of ARSA in its territory.

The ARSA militants were mostly recruited from the Rohingya refugees. It was not to anybody’s surprise that the leadership was Pakistan-born Saudi émigrés. They raise funds mostly from Rohingyas living in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Several years ago, in a rare interview with an international media, Ataullah, chief of ARSA said that their objective would be “open war” and “continued [armed] resistance” against the Myanmar government until “citizenship rights were reinstated” of Rohingyas in Myanmar.

The jihadist leader denied having links to the Islamic State or ISIS in a video and said he turned his back on support from Pakistan-based jihadists. The Bangladesh security agencies were skeptical of his claim.

A security expert in Bangladesh explains that ARSA has ideological differences from other terror outfits in the region and has reason to distance itself from the transnational jihadist network.

ARSA operatives are responsible for widespread abduction, extortions, tortures and executions of suspects. The crimes are committed to collect funds for local operations in the world’s largest Rohingya camps, says Fortify Rights in their latest report.

Cash-starved Al Yakin, the volunteer group of ARSA is mostly responsible for gang war in the refugee camps to establish dominance over other non-militant groups in the sprawling camps.

Often breaking news from Rohingya refugee camps of robbers, dacoits, and armed gangs killed in encounters by anti-crime forces – the slain victims are radicalized Rohingya militants.

Fortify Rights urges that Bangladesh should hold the Rohingya militants accountable for war crimes. Bangladesh’s Interim Government should cooperate with international justice mechanisms to investigate crimes and bring potential war criminals to justice.

Donor governments should work with Bangladesh to redouble services for Rohingya at risk, including protective spaces and third-country resettlement, said Fortify Rights.

In an interview that aired on 4 March 2025, the head of Bangladesh Interim Government, Prof Muhammad Yunus, spoke about violence in the refugee camps, saying: “There is lots of violence, lots of drugs, lots of paramilitary activities inside the camps.”

“War crimes are usually committed within the immediate theater of armed conflict but, in this case, specific crimes in Bangladesh are directly connected to the war in Myanmar and constitute war crimes,” says John Quinley, Director at Fortify Rights.

Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh have suffered years of violence and killings at the hands of Rohingya militant groups. Reported killings by camp-based militants numbered 22 in 2021, 42 in 2022, 90 in 2023, and at least 65 in 2024.

The majority of the killings by Rohingya militants documented by Fortify Rights occurred with impunity in the camps, creating a climate of fear for all camp residents, said Fortify Rights.

ARSA and a rival Islamist militant outfit, the Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO) are engaged in Myanmar’s internal armed conflict. They are both fighting with the Myanmar junta and against the Arakan Army, with very little impact militarily.

To reinforce their armed campaigns inside Myanmar, ARSA, and RSO have abducted refugees in Bangladesh and forced them to fight in Myanmar. Such acts are grave violations of the laws of war and should be investigated as possible war crimes.

The ICC has already established jurisdiction and opened an investigation into cross-border atrocity crimes occurring against Rohingya in both Bangladesh and Myanmar. This should include crimes committed by ARSA and similar groups, said Fortify Rights.

In 2019, the British-born ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Ahmad Khan at the time said the court was “aware of a number of acts of violence allegedly committed by ARSA,” noting that the allegations would be kept “under review.”

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan on 23 March 2025 

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Bangladesh Denies India Thwarts Pakistan’s Engineered Coup!

SALEEM SAMAD

An Indian news portal, Swarajya, published an exclusive article with the headline “India Helped Thwart a Coup Against Bangladesh Army Chief by Pro-Pak Islamist Generals,” written by journalist Jaideep Mazumdar. Swarajya periodical was launched in 1956. The media boasts of ethical clarity, intellectual honesty, and the ability to speak truth to power, accentuating his reputation as a bold journalist.

The question is how ethical and honest the article carries on conspiracy to a coup plot by Pakistan which is fortunately unearthed by Indian hawks at the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), a spy agency that claims to have shared encrypted Intel to alert Bangladesh armed forces headquarters. There are several issues which need to be put on the table. First, why would Pakistan’s dreaded spy agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) go for a half-baked coup plot, which eventually did not see the light of day?

Second, why would Bangladesh’s military headquarters in the capital Dhaka take the crucial Indian military information seriously, when nearly 1400 students and protesters were shot and killed during the July-August revolution to topple the autocrat Sheikh Hasina and India and Indian media remained tight-lipped?

Let’s presume that the plot was successful. Millions of students and protesters would pour into the streets of Bangladesh protesting the illegal coup d’état, which goes against the spirit of the Monsoon Revolution. The nation would plunge into a bloody civil war. Bangladesh Army is divided into several regional commanders based in 31 cantonments distributed among the infantry, artillery, armored corps, and other vital units.

Mazumdar, who writes on Indian current affairs and India’s neighbors does not know it will be very difficult to muster the allegiance of 10 regional commanders to join the mutiny, which they will be able to understand in an hour that the plot would not serve their purpose. To stay in power, the mutineers will have to slaughter thousands of protesters in the streets and arrest tens of thousands, which will turn into a massive headache for the soldiers to contain them in the long run.

The mutineers know that the people do not listen to state broadcast radio. It will be difficult to ventilate their crucial messages. The alternative would be to create a social media channel to keep their propaganda kicking. As Mazumdar writes the coup engineered by Pakistan military establishment will usher in pro-Pakistan elements in power with the moral support of the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Isami.

Several senior retired officers, who have privy to military affairs have confided that the story by Mazumdar is fictitious and has several flaws in information of name, ranks, and position. Most importantly the alleged plotter Lieutenant General Muhammad Faizur Rahman, who was supposed to replace the current COAS is still in service.

The other half a dozen Generals who reportedly supported Rahman are still in service and have been reassigned to new positions, according to retired officers. Well, Jamaat-e-Islami has yet to apologize for supporting and abetting the marauding Pakistan military during the liberation war in 1971. The Jamaat-e-Islami youths were recruited to raise an Islamic militia and Al Badr, a secret death squad responsible for abduction and execution without mercy.

They were trained and also provided weapons and logistics to hunt and eliminate suspected Mukti Bahini guerillas and independence sympathizers. The victims were mostly Hindus.

Most political analysts argue that the Jamaat will not make such a suicidal decision, which will destroy their political career. They did make a political blunder in 1971 and took four decades to stand on their feet. Next time if the Islamist party supports an illegal military junta, the party will opt for self-destruction.

Salauddin Babar, editor of pro-Jamaat newspaper Dainik Naya Diganta says Jamaat-e-Islami is a political party and has learned to keep their heads above the water during the Awami League government of Sheikh Hasina’s repressive regimes.

Thousands of the party leaders and members had been in prison on charges of Islamic terrorism and destabilizing the country. Jamaat has been able to stand firm on their political indoctrination. Babar believes that Jamaat will never take a shortcut to power on a piggy-back of the military. Instead, they would demand the mutineers to hold a free and fair inclusive election. This will irk the plotters.

Then who is the alternative Islamist party? Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh is a madrassa-based platform that has millions of students and followers in small cities and rural areas. The organization opposes Deoband’s Islamic theology of liberalism, and respect for others’ religious practices, culture, and tradition.

The military leaders will have to rely on the support of Hefazat-e-Islam. The armed militia will eventually turn the country into Talibanism. Which will be chaotic and would be difficult for the rogue military to bridle them.

The tide has turned around. India as a victorious army in 1971 was a catalyst in the historic surrender of the marauding Pakistan military to protect the sovereignty and integrity of the eastern province. The Indians had fondled Bangladesh since its independence. It cannot be ignored that India is the largest neighbor and its borders are wrapped around Bangladesh.

Pakistan, to avenge the humiliating defeat is expected to fiddle Bangladesh which was not friendly with Islamabad. The country’s three regimes, out of five were not hostile to Pakistan. Islamabad should be contended with the diplomatic relations. Nobel laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus extended warm hearts to Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif when the two met at a summit in Cairo. The meeting turned the relations from cold to warm.

After the Mujib-Bhutto official meetup in February 1974, the relations apparently became warm. When Mujib attended the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit in Lahore, Pakistan and later Bhutto paid an official visit to Bangladesh and planted a tree sapling at the National Martyrs Memorial for those killed during the brutal birth of Bangladesh. Everything went well.

Trade and commerce between the two countries resumed and hatred on both sides significantly thawed. Meanwhile, scores of Pakistani industrialists and business entrepreneurs have relocated their textile factories in Bangladesh since 2000, according to Express Tribune newspaper. The textile products were destined for European and American markets.

The production by Pakistan industrialists in Bangladesh will further multiply when the Trump administration enforces a trade embargo with China. Export analysts say the Bangladesh market for ready-made garments (RMG) will be able to make a dent in garments sold to Walmart, Amazon, Gap, Levi Strauss, Macy’s, Nike and several other giant clothes retailers in the United States.

Dr Imtiaz Ahmed, a professor at Dhaka University and a political scientist said Pakistan will not jeopardize such an ongoing opportunity which will lead to the Trump administration’s imposing trade sanctions on a military administration in Bangladesh after the takeover of the country through an unconstitutional method.

Most importantly, the Bangladesh Army is trained in defensive combat tactics and crowd control. Bangladesh has negative threats of war from its neighbors (India and Myanmar). The military is trained to be deployed in the United Nations peacekeeping missions. Several contingents are readied to be deployed in several war-torn countries in Africa and Haiti, in the Caribbean.

Bangladesh is a significant contributor to UN peacekeeping missions, having deployed over 160,000 peacekeepers to 54 missions in 40 countries, with 6,802 currently deployed in 9 missions.

A foot soldier’s lifetime income comes from peacekeeping. The soldier invests in housing, buying arable lands, and setting up trading stores in their hometown. With military wages and benefits, it is not possible to live a life free from poverty.

If the peacekeeping mission is jeopardized, the soldiers will revolt against their commanding officers and there is the worst possibility that they may take extreme measures, which occurred on 7th November 1975. The soldiers will disobey the commands of their officers performing martial law duties. In such situation, the nation will plunge into a long-drawn civil war.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which advocates Hindutva means ‘Hindu-ness’. BJP’s inherent political ideology asserts that Hindu nationalism as an Indian national identity is not at all happy that their all-weather friend Sheikh Hasina has been ousted and sent to India to live in exile.

The South Block in New Delhi could not ascertain that the United States, Great Britain and Schengen (European Union) visas would be denied and stamped visas would be revoked.

For now, Delhi had taken a rat in their throat, which they cannot swallow nor vomit. They are in limbo with their guest Hasina. Admitted a senior Indian diplomat based in Dhaka.

Muhammad Yunus, the present head of government has reiterated that Bangladesh wants to have good relations with India. Possibly BJP explicitly does not believe and South Block has some reservations about improving bilateral relations.

For the time being, Bangladesh and India have developed love-and-hate relations. Both countries cannot avoid it but have lots of distrust, suspicion, and pessimism.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 18 March 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Tuesday, March 04, 2025

Bangladesh Election Schedule

SALEEM SAMAD

The inherent weaknesses of Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus’s interim government has prompted Chief of Army Staff, General Waker-Uz-Zaman, to call for an elected government. His statement on 24 February made it clear to the government, political parties, and student leaders responsible for waging the July-August Monsoon Revolution last year, which ousted Sheikh Hasina’s autocratic rule, that 18 months is enough time to hold a general election.

Prof Yunus has announced that the election could be held in December this year. However, his Press Secretary, Shafiq ul Alam, said it could be held either in December or January 2026. The election date to parliament will be announced at the decision of the Election Commission, which is not an independent body. Earlier, Yunus has repeatedly said that the elections will be held only after reforms of crucial state institutions take place to ensure democracy, accountability, and transparency of the government and the officials.

The General repeated twice that the election should be free, fair and inclusive. The questions that come to mind are: What does he mean by inclusivity? Did he mean that no political parties should be left out from contesting the parliamentary elections?

On the other hand, the students have been agitating that Sheikh Hasina led Awami League should be banned and Yunus should not invite the Jatiya Party to any official dialogue.

aThe East Pakistan Awami Muslim League is the oldest party and was born only a few years after the birth of Pakistan. The founders of the party, who defected from the Muslim League in a bid to accommodate others, dropped “Muslim” and formed the Awami League in 1955.

Where as, Jatiya Party, a king’s party emerged after General Husain Muhammad Ershad in a bloodless coup in 1981 formed his party to consolidate his power. In 1990, he was overthrown after months of violent street protests by the students.

His party indeed was a “loyal opposition” during the 15 years rule of Hasina. The honeymoon period of the Jatiya Party abruptly ended when the Awami League regime collapsed and Hasina fled to India last August.

The back-scratching has prompted the leaders of the student revolution to say no to the Jatiya Party – a loud and clear message that they should not be in politics in future.

The two military juntas took power and formed king’s parties – one was the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which ruled the country for the fourth consecutive term. The second was the Jatiya Party. General Ershad’s party ruled for nine years until his regime collapsed in 1990.

BNP was formed when military dictator General Zia ur Rahman, a liberation war decorated officer, took power in the vacuum when independence hero Sheikh Mujib ur Rahman was assassinated in August 1975 by a dozen young military officers without a political vision to steer the country through a crisis.

General Rahman took over the helms of affairs of the country, after a soldier’s mutiny in less than three months of the previous military putsch. Despite having a political vision, for unknown reasons, he rehabilitated those politicians who opposed the independence of Bangladesh in crucial positions.

He also rehabilitated scores of Bangla-speaking military officers who fought alongside the Pakistan Army against the Mukti Bahini guerillas and Indian troops during the bloody war in 1971 and dodged the surrender ceremony of Pakistan armed forces. Also, most of the Bangla-speaking military officers were recruited in senior positions in the police services.

In a speech, last week, commemorating the fallen officers of the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) revolt 17 years ago, General Waqar-uz-Zaman has said, ‘We are thinking that we will finish the work quickly and take the army back to the cantonment.””We have to be patient. Work with professionalism. Until an elected government comes, we have to do this with patience,” he furthermore stated.

Many have remarked that the COAS has expressed discomfort against the Yunus government when the situation of law and order reached an alarming level.

The crime situation in Bangladesh is such that there are thefts, robberies and dacoities committed in broad daylight causing widespread panic among the citizenry.The Home Affairs Advisor, Lt. General Jahangir Alam Chowdhury, called a press conference at his house at 3 am and blamed the Awami League for the law and order situation. He said, “Awami League is funnelling ill-gotten money to desperate criminals.”

Political and administrative circles believe that the comments of the army chief regarding the alarming rise of crime amid the demand for the resignation of the home adviser, and his accountability have given the allegation of failure of the government.

Meanwhile, Indian Nobel laureate Prof Amartya Sen, who was born in Bangladesh and studied in a school in Dhaka in an interview with the Indian official news agency Press Trust of India (PTI) a few days ago praised the Bangladeshi Army for its restraint in not attempting to establish military rule, as has happened in many other countries.

Dr Sen said “Yunus is an old friend. I know he is highly capable and, in many ways, a remarkable human being. He has made strong statements about Bangladesh’s secularism and democratic commitment.”

In many third-world countries, the military has always been ambitious to take over power and overthrow a legitimate government, Bangladesh Army seems to behave very rationally.

Bangladesh military officers are refused deployment in United Nations Peacekeeping and also provided visit visas to the United States, Canada, Great Britain, Australia and European countries for track record on human rights abuse. That is one of the reasons that General Zaman has advised his troops deployed for the anti-crime operation so-called “Devil Hunt” to avoid excessive force and shoot to kill suspects.

On the other hand, the mainstream political parties Bangladesh BNP and Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami have been demanding an early election, a month after Yunus took charge of the government in August last year. Dr Yunus, however, urged the political leaders to hold their patience until the crucial reforms of the election commission, judiciary, civil administration, constitution, media, anti-corruption, police administration and others are implemented.

The Chief Adviser of the Interim Government aims for the reforms in a bid to develop a state system based on public ownership, accountability, and welfare. The political parties negotiating with the government have in the back of their mind the fact that the Yunus administration does not have the legitimacy to implement the reforms in the absence of a parliament. They are saying in closed-door party meetings that the political parties would be empowered to implement the reforms. Without the reforms, most observers and political think tanks believe that the political parties will take the country back to square one when they refuse to have the reforms in place.

Reforms will bring about more accountability and transparency of elected public representatives, which the politicians will not agree to in any case. In addition, the independence of the judiciary, and civil and police administration will jeopardize their authority over their constitution.

This is not the first time that the political and administrative reforms have been taken seriously. In 1990, days after the downfall of the military dictator, the student leaders were able to convince the mainstream opposition parties, the Awami League, BNP and Left coalition leaders to sign a pledge that they would bring about reforms of the government institutions.

Unfortunately, both the Awami League and BNP ruled the country several times. They deliberately ignored the reforms, leading to politicization of police, civil services, judiciary, election commission and other governmental institutions to manipulate in favor of the politicians and their henchmen. Therefore, political historian Mohiuddin Ahmed predicts that hundreds of pages of reform documents would be thrown out of the windows of the iconic massive parliament building designed by Louis Kahn, a celebrated visionary architect.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan on 4 March 2025

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad