Awami League Believes A Victorious Trump Will Bring Back Hasina

Bangladesh Iron Lady Sheikh Hasina

SALEEM SAMAD

With very little or no chances of Sheikh Hasina returning back to power, the Awami League is now pinning hopes on Donald Trump. Sheikh Hasina's supporters have even started warning those backing the Yunus administration that they will soon face the consequences. However, Bangladesh doesn't enjoy a spot in the US priority list which could produce a sudden policy shift.

Most Awami League leaders, sympathizers, sycophants, cheerleaders, and partisan journalists who fled abroad or kept a low profile are upbeat about the US presidential election.

It would surprise many what and why an election held in another continent has to do with Bangladesh or who will be the winner – the Democrats or the Republicans!

Republicans have no stake in Bangladesh, but the Democrats, indeed, have some in the interim government and especially a very friendly relationship with Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus.

The Biden administration was able to take over some offshore oil and gas exploration in the Bay of Bengal after the Yunus administration took charge of the “Naya Sarkar” (new government).

Trump in a post shared on X wrote: “I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh.”

Yunus’ journey with the Democrats began when Hillary Clinton met him through his former American wife in the United States. Both Bill Clinton and Hillary were spellbound to hear the microcredit program of Yunus for the poor. He was convinced that the poor could be trusted for repayment of cash loans. Yunus affirmed the Clintons that “they [the poor] are good borrowers”.

When Clinton became Arkansas governor for the second time, banks for the poor were launched and proved successful with jobless Black communities in certain areas. Now there are hundreds of organizations in the United States, which extend microcredit to the poor, thus benefitting millions of them.

Since then, Yunus has become a ‘blue-eyed boy’ of the Democrats. He was ordained with the Presidential Medal of Freedom by President Barack Obama. Later, he was awarded the prestigious Congressional Gold Medal.

On Friday (Nov 1), US presidential candidate Donald Trump in a post shared on X wrote: “I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos.”

He reiterated that the Republicans will “protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left” and “we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi”.

This message squarely embarrassed the Yunus administration. Soon after a series of violent incidents, he swung into action which reduced the racial tension between the radicalized Muslims and the Hindus. The Hindu community leaders in collaboration with the civil and police administration have successfully held the largest Durga Puja festival all over the country, largely without further hindrances.

However, Trump’s statement on X, formerly known as Twitter, seems to have given fresh impetus to the Awami League Leaders and sympathizers who have openly lent their support to Trump in the world’s most talked about presidential race.

Trump in his message has raised two key crucial issues: the persecution of the Hindus in Bangladesh and an all-out praise of his “good friend Prime Minister Modi”.

If Trump enters the coveted Oval Office again, the Awami League supporters believe there is a hope that Yunus will no more be running the affairs of Bangladesh by the end of this year.

Amid this wishful thinking, the Awami League sycophants think that Modi, who is walking on a tight rope. will help the exiled Sheikh Hasina return to Bangladesh and retake her kingdom.

But it doesn’t stop there, as their wish list also says that all the leaders and protesters of the Monsoon Revolution will either flee for their safety or land in prison to be prosecuted for treason. Of course, Yunus will also face treason charges, with his old cases (which the present government has quashed) also reopened. He would certainly be awarded capital punishment and publicly hanged at the Padma Bridge.

The Awami League sycophants think that Modi, who is walking on a tight rope. will help the exiled Sheikh Hasina return to Bangladesh and retake her kingdom.

The Awami League sympathizers living abroad and others who have been keeping a low profile have taken to social media and threatening those they feel as enemies of the Awami League and Hasina, warning them to face the consequences of supporting the Yunus administration.

What will happen if Kamal Harris wins? There is a common belief that the fate of Awami Leaguers will be sealed forever.

Meanwhile, the Bangladeshi diaspora and those living in the country as a whole are divided over the support for Kamala and Trump.

Two things have to be remembered. Usually, the US foreign policy does not change overnight, like in South Asian countries, unless the issue in question is a challenge to national security and a threat to American citizens, said Ambassador Humayun Kabir who was in Bangladesh’s mission (2007-2009) in Washington DC.

Amid the humanitarian crisis in Gaza or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and other global issues, Bangladesh is not on the priority agenda to be discussed at the US State Department and policies fine-tuned, Kabir concluded his argument.

Whoever wins on the November 5 US presidential election, Washington DC will continue to hold its patience for a transition to democracy in the event of a free, fair and inclusive polls being held in Bangladesh. Until then, the impatient Awami League’s leaders and cheerleaders will have to hold their breath to return to power through a third-party intervention.

There is no possibility of Awami League launching a nationwide anti-government movement. The leaders and their sycophants are busy protecting their looted stash of cash, said political historian and writer Mohiuddin Ahmad.

The Awami League and Chhatra League are demoralized political forces and have lost steam for organizing an effective anti-government movement. They will not be able to stand in a face-off with the tens of thousands of student activists who toppled their 15 years of kleptocratic regime, remarked Ahmad.

First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, Islamabad, Pakistan, 3 November 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Shutdown of Indian visa likely to strain relationship with Bangladesh

SALEEM SAMAD

On 5 August, the day the autocratic regime of Sheikh Hasina collapsed after angry students joined by protesters forced her government to collapse and she fled to India. The first thing the Delhi administration decided was to shut down the visa processing centres in Dhaka and elsewhere in the country indefinitely.

A couple of Indian visa centres were vandalised by anti-Indian mobs in the aftermath of the collapse of the kleptocracy regime. In the absence of police and auxiliary forces in fear of reprisal from the angry students for the deaths of more than a thousand protesters, they abandoned their posts and went into hiding.

Responding to a query from a journalist, Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Randhir Jaiswal in Delhi said that India would resume normal visa operations in Bangladesh.

MEA spokesperson in New Delhi said: “We are issuing limited visas. If someone needs to come to India for medical or urgent reasons, we are providing a limited number of those visas.”

He, however, said, “We are already issuing medical visas and visas for emergency requirements. Once the law and order situation improves and the situation becomes conducive to our resumption of normal visa operations (in Bangladesh), we will do that.”

The MEA spokesperson mentioned the “law and order situation”, which literally means Bangladesh is a lawless country.

The mindset of bigwigs sitting in the Indian capital, after Sheikh Hasina fled to Delhi, the country has plunged into chaos, like in Haiti or Kabul.

Indian media seems hesitant to raise the ongoing closure of visa processing for most categories; instead, they are busy critiquing the Interim Government of Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus. Playing with Hindu cards worried about the threats on the Hindu community by radicalised Muslims and Islamist groups.

The Indian media hardly wrote a line on the intermittent attacks, vandalism of business establishments and desecration of temples during the 15 years of Sheikh Hasina’s autocratic regime.

Squeezing of issuance of Indian visas to Bangladesh nationals is a tit-for-tat for widespread August incidents of idol vandalism during Durga Puja celebrations across various places in Bangladesh, India feels that the situation has not yet normalised, as indicated by the spokesperson.

Indian media and South Block have aptly ventilated their anger and frustration blaming Dr Yunus for his failure to contain the sectarian riots in several cities and towns.

Jaiswal further stated: “I would advise the interim government of Bangladesh to implement the assurances they have given (to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi) regarding the protection of Bangladesh’s religious minorities. Measures should be taken to ensure they feel safe.”

On the other hand, Foreign Affairs Adviser Touhid Hossain observed that issuing of visa is a sovereign decision of India, and cannot be questioned.

The Indian High Commission has resumed operations after a brief suspension during the student movement in July but is currently issuing only a limited number of visas.

“However, we have communicated with the Indian High Commission, as many individuals travel to India to obtain visas for other countries. This situation also affects students who wish to study in countries that issue visas from the New Delhi mission.”

The Adviser suggested to the High Commissioner that “if you relax the visa process, it will be helpful for us.”

The Indian High Commissioner Pranay Kumar Verma updated Bangladesh’s Foreign Adviser on the situation, noting that they are currently operating at “10% capacity” and have security concerns to address.

He (Verma) also mentioned that the South Block in New Delhi is working to facilitate visa applications for countries that do not have missions in Dhaka.

When asked if Bangladesh would reciprocate by restricting visas in response to India’s limited issuance, the adviser said, “That’s speculative. They have not stated that they stopped issuing visas; they mentioned it’s a temporary problem due to manpower issues and security concerns.”

The MEA spokesperson added: “Only when the law-and-order situation improves and we have a suitable environment for our regular operations will we be able to issue visas as before.”

“We will try to ensure security for the Indian Visa Centres,” the Adviser added.

Meanwhile, the passenger flights from Dhaka and Chattogram have significantly reduced flights to several Indian destinations due to fewer passengers.

Similarly, the direct passenger trains from Khulna and Dhaka to Kolkata and Siliguri have also stopped for want of passengers.

Only the land borders are open to several Indian states, including West Bengal, Meghalaya, Assam, and Tripura.

The reduction of tourists to Indian cities, especially Kolkata has severely dented the hotel, restaurant and tour operator industry. Shopping tourism from Bangladesh has been equally harmed, according to Indian media.

Among the top 15 countries, Bangladesh (22.3 percent) topped in Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTAs) in India in 2023, while the United States of America and the United Kingdom stand second and third respectively, according to the Indian Ministry Of Tourism.

Approximately 2.12 million tourists visited India in 2023, making Bangladesh the top source of FTAs in India that year.

A top Indian diplomat in the Indian High Commission posted in Dhaka confided that lack of security at the visa centres deters normal functioning.

Over a hundred non-essential Indian staff managing the centres have left for India in the aftermath of the student uprising and attacks in some centres outside the capital Dhaka.

He could not say when the visa processing centres are expected to resume normal function. The decision remains with the government in New Delhi after consultation with Dhaka.

It seems that tens of thousands of tourists are not expected to begin their journey in the coming winter.

First published in the Northeast News, Guwahati, India, 1 November 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Dhaka, Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad